Erik Jenelius

KTH Royal Institute of Technology | KTH · Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering

The study presents the methodology and system architecture of an integrated urban road network travel time prediction framework based on low-frequency probe vehicle data. Intended applications include real-time network traffic management, vehicle routing and information provision. The framework integrates methods for receiving a stream of probe veh...

We propose a methodology based on multiple automated data sources for evaluating the effects of station layout, arriving traveler flows, and platform and on-board crowding on the distribution of boarding passengers between individual cars of metro trains. The methodology is applied to a case study for a sequence of stations in the Stockholm metro n...

This paper develops a method for analysing the elasticity of travel demand to public transport fares. The methodology utilizes public transport smartcard data for collecting disaggregate full population data about passengers’ travel behaviour. The study extends previous work by deriving specific fare elasticities for distinct socioeconomic (e.g., c...

The maturing of autonomous driving technology in recent years has led to several pilot projects and the initial integration of autonomous pods and buses into the public transport (PT) system. An emerging field of interest is the design of public transport networks operating autonomous buses and the potential to attract higher levels of travel deman...

This study investigates the potential of modular vehicle concepts and consolidation to increase the efficiency of urban freight and passenger transport. Modularity is achieved by connecting multiple vehicles together to form a platoon. Consolidation is realized by integrating passenger and freight demand in the routing problem. Vehicles are specifi...

To effectively manage and control public transport operations, understanding the various factors that impact bus arrival delays is crucial. However, limited research has focused on a comprehensive analysis of bus delay factors, often relying on single-step delay prediction models that are unable to account for the heterogeneous impacts of spatiotem...

Recent advances in the development of modular transport vehicles allow deploying multi-purpose vehicles, which enable alternate transport of different demand types. In this study, we propose a novel variant of the pickup and delivery problem, the multi-purpose pickup and delivery problem, where multi-purpose vehicles are assigned to serve a multi-c...

On-board crowding in public transport has significant impact on passengers’ travel experience, given the ongoing increase in urban agglomeration in many cities worldwide. New land-use planning configurations can have various wide-ranging crowding effects on the public transport system. Nevertheless, there is a lack of knowledge on the crowding impl...

Public transportation serves many important roles in society: When functioning well, it provides accessibility for people to work, healthcare and other essential activities, as well as high-speed mobility for massive volumes of passengers during peak hours. The efficiency of public transportation, in terms of energy consumption, emissions, surface...

Cyclists are a heterogeneous group, where people cycle with varying frequency, needs and purposes. To increase the cycling mode share, information, education and marketing are important. The City of Stockholm’s bicycle maps are seen as lacking and hard to read, which may inhibit the cycling mode share. The aim of this paper is to propose a simplifi...

Links in road networks can be disrupted because of adverse weather conditions, natural disasters, major accidents, social protests, etc. Link closures may have different economic and societal consequences depending on which regions they occur, and users may be affected differently depending on where they travel. To assess and mitigate the effects,...

On-board crowding in public transportation has a significant impact on passengers' travel experience. However, there is little knowledge of how different passenger groups contribute to on-board crowding. Empirical knowledge of specific passenger groups' impact on the system facilitates more effective tuning of policy instruments such as new fare st...

Understanding human mobility in urban areas is crucial for transportation planning, operations, and online control. The availability of large-scale and diverse mobility data (e.g., smart card data, GPS data), provides valuable insights into human mobility patterns. However, organizing and analyzing such data pose significant challenges. Knowledge g...

The role of electric vehicles (EVs) in more sustainable cities is widely recognized, with their adoption increasing rapidly. Most governments have targets for continued EV adoption rate growth, and some plan to ban fossil-fuelled vehicles altogether. Yet, in most countries, including Brazil, the proportion of EVs among new vehicles sold remains low...

Identification of Choice Sets (CSs) is a crucial step towards the estimation of public transport route choice models. However, identification of reliable CSs is a challenging task as the routes considered by travelers are not directly observed. To handle this issue, this study adopts an existing Choice Set Generation Methodology (CSGM) for the iden...

Public transport plays a vital role in society and the urban environment. However, knowledge of its spatial and temporal shares is often limited to traditional travel surveys. Recently, there has been substantial progress in mobility data collection, including data from traffic, public transport, and mobile phones. Especially mobile network data is...

The introduction of automated vehicles (AVs) is commonly expected to improve different aspects of transportation. A long transition period in which AVs will coexist with human-driven vehicles (HVs) is expected until AVs become prevalent. Dedicated lane strategy is considered an effective way to improve road capacity and promote AV use. However, the...

Users’ access distance to shared micromobility services is an important component of travel patterns, a determinant of travel choices, and input to determining service catchment areas. Users’ willingness to walk to shared micromobility vehicles is increasingly relevant as policymakers regulate shared free-floating e-scooters to designated parking z...

Real vehicle usage rarely matches the predictions made during early phases of vehicle development and sales processes at commercial road vehicle manufacturers. The automotive industry needs multidisciplinary vehicle design methods to predict real-world vehicle operations by considering the vehicle level and the transport system level simultaneously...

Understanding human mobility in urban areas is important for transportation, from planning to operations and online control. This paper proposes the concept of user-station attention, which describes the user’s (or user group’s) interest in or dependency on specific stations. The concept contributes to a better understanding of human mobility (e.g....

Public transport crowding exposure is known to cause discomfort, stress and dissatisfaction. However, the distribution and equity of crowding exposure across socioeconomic groups has been largely unexplored. This paper opens a new research topic connecting crowding exposure in public transport to travelers' socioeconomic characteristics. We present...

While social segregation is often assessed using static data concerning residential areas, the extent to which people with diverse background travel to the same destinations may offer an additional perspective on the extent of urban segregation. This study further contributes to the measurement of activity-based social segregation between multiple...

Recognition of spatio-temporal traffic patterns at the network-wide level plays an important role in data-driven intelligent transport systems (ITS) and is a basis for applications such as short-term prediction and scenario-based traffic management. Common practice in the transport literature is to rely on well-known general unsupervised machine-le...

Recently, a new shared micromobility service has become popular in cities. The service is supplied by a new vehicle, the e-scooter, which is equipped with a dockless security system and electric power assistance. The relatively unregulated proliferation of these systems driven by the private sector has resulted in numerous research questions about...

Understanding human mobility in urban areas is important for transportation, from planning to operations and online control. The availability of large-scale and multi-source mobility data (e.g., smart card data, GPS data) facilitates the understanding of human mobility at a deep level but also brings challenges in organizing and analyzing these dat...

Overcrowding has become a big challenge for public transport systems, affecting passengers’ travel experience. At the same time, service supply is often underutilized due to large variations in crowding across services, vehicle trips on the same service and different compartments of the same vehicle. Real-time operational measures, such as informat...

Over the past decade, there has been a surge of interest in the transport community in the application of agent-based simulation models to evaluate flexible transit solutions characterized by different degrees of short-term flexibility in routing and scheduling. A central modeling decision in the development of an agent-based simulation model for t...

Self-driving technology may lead to a paradigm shift for the transport industry with shared cars available to every-one. However, this vision has increasingly been challenged as too optimistic and unsubstantiated. In this study we explore societal impacts of using this technology for both cars and public transport and investigate differences depend...

Numerous studies have studied the impacts of automated driving (AD) technology on e.g. accident rates or CO2 emissions using various frameworks. In this paper we present an overview of previous frameworks used for societal impacts and review their advantages and limitations. Additionally, we introduce the Total Impact Assessment (TIA) framework dev...

A consistent pattern that emerged out of the consequences of COVID-19 is that public transport was hit particularly hard compared to private cars and other modes. This raises concern regarding the future of public transport and the sustainability of urban transport. While the current clash of challenges, trends and disruptions makes the future more...

Recent developments in modular transport vehicles allow deploying multi-purpose vehicles which can alternately transport different kinds of flows. In this study, we propose a novel variant of the pickup and delivery problem, the multi-purpose pickup and delivery problem, where multi-purpose vehicles are assigned to serve a multi-commodity flow. We...

The continuous increase in urban deliveries and the ongoing urbanization of large cities require the development of efficient and sustainable transportation solutions. This study investigates the impact of modular vehicle concepts and the consolidation of different demand types in the route planning on the efficiency of the urban freight and passen...

Access distance to micromobility services is an important component of usage patterns and input to determine the catchment area for the service. The latter is increasingly relevant as policymakers consider regulating shared free-floating e-scooters to designated parking zones. The access distances of e-scooters users in Stockholm, Sweden, are studi...

The introduction of automated vehicles (AVs) is commonly expected to improve different aspects of transportation. A long transition period where AVs will coexist with human-driven vehicles (HVs) is expected until AVs become prevalent. Using the open source microscopic traffic simulation tool SUMO, this study investigates the impacts on traffic perf...

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are becoming a reality and may integrate with existing public transport systems to enable the new generation of autonomous public transport. It is vital to understand what are the alternatives for AV integration from different angles such as costs, emissions, and transport performance. With the aim to support AV integratio...

Pattern recognition or spatio-temporal clustering is essential to scenario-based traffic management. "Typical" or representative day-types capture how the traffic patterns have looked and as the new days can be like or develop. This paper looks at daily pattern recognition, where daily traffic patterns are captured in dynamic Origin-Destination (OD...

Different urban transportation flows (e.g., passenger journeys, freight distribution, and waste management) are conventionally separately handled by corresponding single-purpose vehicles (SVs). The multi-purpose vehicle (MV) is a novel vehicle concept that can enable the sequential sharing of different transportation flows by changing the so-called...

This paper proposes a linear mixed model of route speed distributions that separates the variability into an intertraveller component, consistent across days and time intervals for each recurrent traveller, and an intratraveller component representing uncertainty. The intratraveller variability corresponds to travel time uncertainty, while the tota...

The paper investigates the efficiency of serving high demand transit corridors with connected semi-autonomous bus platoons in both bus and BRT services. Platooning facilitates higher capacity than conventional buses by forming virtual long buses out of multiple smaller vehicles, which may be particularly relevant in scenarios with large demand vari...

This chapter introduces a framework for understanding rail transport resilience that incorporates supply shocks as well as positive and negative demand shocks. It focuses on demand disruptions with particular attention to the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand shocks can occur due to special events or various forms of societal upheaval and crises. The class...

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has changed travel behaviour and reduced the use of public transport throughout the world, but the reduction has not been uniform. In this study we analyse the propensity to stop travelling by public transport during COVID-19 for the holders of 1.8 million smart cards in Stockholm, Sweden, for the spring and autum...

Cities across the world are becoming more engaged in tackling climate change and contributing to the achievement of international agreements. The city of Curitiba in Brazil is no exception. In December 2020, the city published PlanClima (Plano Municipal de Mitigação e Adaptação às Mudanças Climáticas), a climate plan developed with local and intern...

The paper develops a simulation model and evaluates fixed versus on-demand operational designs of a station-based automated feeder service. The evaluation considers the operational cost and average passenger level-of-service trade-offs as well as distributional differences in waiting times. Two case studies are used to evaluate such trade-offs unde...

This paper evaluates the impact of vehicle automation and electrification on the applicability of fixed routes and door-to-door services to supply a feeder transit solution in suburban areas. These technologies will modify the current cost structure of the bus system depending on how mature they are, reducing operating costs and increasing capital...

As travel demand grows in many cities around the world, overcrowding in public transport systems has become a major issue and has many negative effects for both users and operators. Measures to address on-board congestion span from large-scale strategic investments (e.g. increasing infrastructure capacity), through tactical planning (e.g. stopping...

Recognition of spatio-temporal traffic patterns at the network-wide level plays an important role in data-driven intelligent transport systems (ITS) and is a basis for applications such as short-term prediction and scenario-based traffic management. Common practice in the transport literature is to rely on well-known general unsupervised machine-le...

Holding has been extensively used as control strategy to regulate public transport operations, especially to maintain even headways and prevent buses of the same line to bunch up. Applying holding to multiple lines requires however to deal with the transition between corridor and branching segments. In this study, we introduce a holding criterion f...

In the last years, a new generation of shared micromobility systems has rapidly proliferated in urban areas. Their distinctive characteristics are dockless security systems, electric power assistance and a new device, the e-scooter. The technological advances combined with the lack of regulations reduce implementation costs and expand potential dem...

This paper evaluates the impact of vehicle automation and electrification on the applicability of fixed routes and door-to-door services to supply a feeder transit solution in suburban areas. These technologies will modify the current cost structure of the bus system depending on how mature they are, reducing operating costs and increasing capital...

High-capacity public transport services such as metro and commuter trains are efficient during normal operations but are vulnerable to disruptions. To manage disruptions, bridging buses are commonly called in to replace the rail-based service along the disrupted lines. These often take significant time to arrive and are costly to keep stand-by. Dem...

The transport system is critical to society. This is clearly demonstrated when the system is exposed to a shock. We discuss the significance of transport resilience and the related concepts of risk and vulnerability. Shocks to the transport system can be internal or external, natural or human-made, intentional or unintentional. Different transport...

The paper analyses the impacts of COVID-19 on daily public transport ridership in the three most populated regions of Sweden (Stockholm, Västra Götaland and Skåne) during spring 2020. The analysis breaks down the overall ridership with respect to ticket types, youths and seniors, and transport modes based on ticket validations, sales and passenger...

The paper analyses the impacts of COVID-19 on daily public transport ridership in the three most populated regions of Sweden (Stockholm, Västra Götaland and Skåne) during spring 2020. The analysis breaks down the overall ridership with respect to ticket types, youths and seniors, and transport modes based on ticket validations, sales and passenger...

This chapter introduces a framework for understanding rail transport resilience that incorporates supply shocks as well as positive and negative demand shocks. We focus on demand disruptions with particular attention to the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand shocks can occur due to special events or various forms of societal upheaval and crises. We classify...

The paper proposes a methodology for providing personalized, predictive in-vehicle crowding information to public transport travellers via mobile applications or at-stop displays. Three crowding metrics are considered: (1) the probability of getting a seat on boarding, (2) the expected travel time standing, and (3) the excess perceived travel time...

The deployment of autonomous buses (AB) is expected to have consequences for service design facilitated by its cost function structure. We study the impacts of AB deployment in line-based public transport (PT) systems. In particular, we examine the transition phase where AB is sequentially deployed, involving the selection of lines for which AB wil...

This paper investigates to what degree the vehicles traversing a route during the morning or evening peak over multiple days are recurrent travellers. The paper proposes a model of route speed distributions that separates the variability into a traveller-to-traveller component, consistent across days and time intervals, and a within-traveller compo...

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed travel behaviour and reduced the use of public transport throughout the world, but the reduction has not been uniform. In this study we analyse the propensity to stop travelling by public transport during COVID-19 for the holders of 1.8 million smart cards in Stockholm, Sweden. We suggest two models for explaining...

This paper develops a method for analysing the elasticity of travel demand to public transport fares. The methodology utilizes public transport smartcard data for collecting disaggregate, full population data about passengers’ travel behaviour. The study extends previous work by deriving specific fare elasticities for distinct socioeconomic (e.g.,...

The transport system is an infrastructure that is critical to society. This is clearly demonstrated when the system is exposed to a shock. We discuss the significance of transport resilience and the related concepts of risk and vulnerability. Shocks to the transport system can be internal or external, natural or human-made, intentional or unintenti...

We introduce a rule based multiline holding criterion for regularity in branch and trunk networks accounting for all passenger groups. On the shared transit corridor, we consider synchronization at the merging or the diverging stop. The decision between holding for regularity or synchronization is taken by comparing the expected passenger cost of e...

This paper presents a comparative analysis of demand-responsive and fixed-schedule, fixed route operations for a simplified station-based feeder to mass transit scenario. Traffic dynamics, demand-responsive fleet coordination, and the behaviour of individual transit users are represented using a public transit simulation framework. Each operational...

The arrival of automated vehicles could significantly reduce the operating cost of mobility services. This fact has encouraged researchers to propose door-to-door services instead of the current fixed routes. However, a comparison between these two alternatives is required in order to identify when (depending on the development degree of the automa...

This paper establishes mild probability-theoretical conditions under which observations of space-averaged speed and occupancy in some area concentrate with low scatter around a well-defined curve. These conditions are validated against empirical data from Stockholm and Geneva. No equilibrating process is required to be in operation.