Eric A Treml

Eric A Treml
Deakin University · School of Life and Environmental Sciences

PhD

About

115
Publications
39,688
Reads
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5,472
Citations
Citations since 2017
58 Research Items
3506 Citations
20172018201920202021202220230200400600
20172018201920202021202220230200400600
20172018201920202021202220230200400600
20172018201920202021202220230200400600
Introduction
I am a quantitative marine ecologist with a background in marine biology, landscape ecology, coastal management, and the geospatial sciences. My core research interests are in understanding the causes and consequences of population connectivity and assisting in local-to-global conservation prioritization. I use a variety of tools, including GIS & remote sensing, dynamic modelling, spatial statistics, network analysis, and ocean models and data.
Additional affiliations
February 2018 - present
Deakin University
Position
  • Lecturer
January 2015 - January 2018
University of Melbourne
Position
  • Lecturer
February 2012 - December 2014
University of Melbourne
Position
  • Research Associate

Publications

Publications (115)
Article
Full-text available
Multinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navigate trade-offs among multiple objectives. It seems logical to focus where several objectives can be achieved efficiently, but such multi-objective hotspots may be ecologically inappropriate, or politically inequitable. Here we devise a framework to fac...
Article
Full-text available
Incorporating connectivity into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) has met with conceptual, theoretical, and practical challenges, which include: 1) the need to consider connectivity for multiple species with different dispersal abilities, and 2) the role played by variable habitat quality in determining the spatial patterns of connectivit...
Article
AimTo discover and evaluate potential dispersal barriers across the Indo-West Pacific Ocean and to develop spatially explicit hypotheses regarding the location of barriers and their capacity to filter taxa. Additionally, to compare model predictions with previously described barriers and build a more thorough understanding of the region's biogeogra...
Article
Robust conservation plans seek to accommodate functional connectivity by establishing regional priorities and through decisions regarding the size and placement of protected areas. In marine systems, connectivity refers to the ecological linkages (primarily larval dispersal) between populations and protected areas. Unfortunately, connectivity data...
Article
Marine species in the Indo-Pacific have ranges that can span thousands of kilometres, yet studies increasingly suggest that mean larval dispersal distances are less than historically assumed. Gene flow across these ranges must therefore rely to some extent on larval dispersal among intermediate 'stepping-stone' populations in combination with long-...
Article
Full-text available
Marine reserves are a key tool for the conservation of marine biodiversity, yet only ~2.5% of the world's oceans are protected. The integration of marine reserves into connected networks representing all habitats has been encouraged by international agreements, yet the benefits of this design has not been tested empirically. Australia has one of th...
Article
Full-text available
Seascape ecology, the marine-centric counterpart to landscape ecology, is rapidly emerging as an interdisciplinary and spatially explicit ecological science with relevance to marine management, biodiversity conservation and restoration. While important progress in this field has been made in the past decade, there has been no coherent prioritisatio...
Article
Full-text available
The relationship between metapopulation stability and connectivity has long been investigated in ecology, however, most of these studies are focussed on theoretical species and habitat networks, having limited ability to capture the complexity of real‐world metapopulations. Network analysis became more important in modelling connectivity, but it is...
Article
Full-text available
The establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs) is a critical step in ensuring the continued persistence of marine biodiversity. While the area protected within MPAs is growing, the movement of individuals (or larvae) among MPAs, termed connectivity, has only recently been included as an objective of many MPAs. As such, assessing connectivity is...
Article
Coral reefs world‐wide are threatened by thermal stress caused by climate change. Especially devastating periods of coral loss frequently occur during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events originating in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). El Niño‐induced thermal stress is considered the primary threat to ETP coral reefs. An increase in the fr...
Article
The potential of reef‐building corals to adapt to increasing sea‐surface temperatures is often debated but has rarely been comprehensively modeled on a region‐wide scale. We used individual‐based simulations to model adaptation to warming in a coral metapopulation comprising 680 reefs and representing the whole of the Central Indo‐West Pacific. Enc...
Article
Full-text available
Warming from climate change and resulting increases in energy stored in the oceans is causing changes in the hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry of marine systems, exacerbating current challenges facing marine fisheries. Although studies have evaluated effects of rising temperatures on marine species, few have looked at these impacts along with other...
Article
Full-text available
Globally, protected areas are being established to protect biodiversity and to promote ecosystem resilience. The typical spatial conservation planning process leading to the creation of these protected areas focuses on representation and replication of ecological features, often using decision support tools such as Marxan. Yet, despite the importan...
Article
Animal migrations are a fascinating and global phenomenon, yet they are often difficult to study and sometimes poorly understood. Here, we build on classic ecological theory by hypothesizing that some enigmatic spawning migrations across ocean habitats can be inferred from a population genetic signature of larval dispersal by ocean currents. We tes...
Chapter
Full-text available
Seventy-one per cent of the earth’s surface is covered by ocean which contains almost 80% of the world’s phyla – “seascape genomics” is the study of how spatial dependence and environmental features in the ocean influence the geographic structure of genomic patterns in marine organisms. The field extends from seascape genetics where the study of sm...
Article
Larval dispersal is a key process determining population connectivity, metapopulation dynamics, and community structure in benthic marine ecosystems, yet the biophysical complexity of dispersal is not well understood. In this study, we investigate the interaction between disperser phenotype and hydrodynamics on larval dispersal pathways, using a te...
Preprint
Full-text available
The potential of reef-building corals to adapt to increasing sea surface temperatures is often speculated about but has rarely been comprehensively modeled on a region-wide scale. Here, we used individual-based simulations to model adaptation to warming in a coral metapopulation comprising 680 reefs and representing the whole of the Central Indo-We...
Article
Full-text available
Characterising adaptive genetic divergence among conspecific populations is often achieved by studying genetic variation across defined environmental gradients. In marine systems this is challenging due to a paucity of information on habitat heterogeneity at local and regional scales and a dependency on sampling regimes that are typically limited t...
Article
Marine ecosystems are beset by disease outbreaks, and efficient strategies to control dispersal of pathogens are scarce. We tested whether introducing no-farming areas or ‘firebreaks’ could disconnect dispersal networks of a parasitic disease affecting the world's largest marine fish farming industry (∼1000 farms). Larval salmon lice (Lepeophtheiru...
Article
Full-text available
Aim To test hypothesized biogeographic partitions of the tropical Indo‐Pacific Ocean with phylogeographic data from 56 taxa, and to evaluate the strength and nature of barriers emerging from this test. Location The Indo‐Pacific Ocean. Time period Pliocene through the Holocene. Major taxa studied Fifty‐six marine species. Methods We tested eight...
Article
Instantaneous implementation of systematic conservation plans at regional scales is rare. More typically, planned actions are applied incrementally over periods of years or decades. During protracted implementation, the character of the connected ecological system will change as a function of external anthropogenic pressures, local metapopulation p...
Article
Full-text available
Ecological and environmental variables play a major role in the genetic structure of marine populations, but how oceanography affects their dispersal and associated connectivity remains far from being understood. To account for the effect of different dispersal strategies in terms of pelagic larvae and non-pelagic reproduction, we utilize the power...
Article
Aim Use a fishery‐independent metric to model and map regional‐scale fishing impact, and demonstrate how this metric assists with modelling current and potential fish biomass to support coral‐reef management. We also examine the relative importance of anthropogenic and natural factors on fishes at biogeographical scales. Location Reefs of five jur...
Article
Full-text available
Long-distance dispersal is believed to strongly infuence coral reef population dynamics across the Tropical Pacifc. However, the spatial scale and strength at which populations are potentially connected by dispersal remains uncertain. To determine the patterns in connectivity between the Eastern (ETP) and Central Tropical Pacifc (CTP) ecoregions, w...
Preprint
Full-text available
Globally, protected areas are being established to protect biodiversity and to promote ecosystem resilience. The typical spatial conservation planning process leading to the creation of these protected areas focuses on representation and replication of ecological features, often using decision support systems such as Marxan. Unfortunately, Marxan c...
Article
Full-text available
Can genetic adaptation in reef-building corals keep pace with the current rate of sea surface warming? Here we combine population genomics, biophysical modeling, and evolutionary simulations to predict future adaptation of the common coral Acropora millepora on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Genomics-derived migration rates were high (0.1–1% of immi...
Data
Effect of broader thermal tolerance (σ, standard deviation of the Gaussian slope of fitness decline away from the phenotypic optimum, in °C) and lower heritability (i.e. higher Esd, standard deviation of normally distributed random value added to the breeding value when calculating individual’s phenotype) on the mean thermal optima in populations (...
Data
Summary of demographic analysis based on split-with-migration model (Fig 2A). “lo” and “hi” values are bootstrap-based 95% confidence limits. (PDF)
Data
Delta-AIC bootstrap comparison of models with and without migration (A), to confirm that the model with migration and ancient divergence is preferable to the model with no migration but very recent divergence. (B-K) Histograms of delta-AIC values for bootstrap replicates comparing models with and without migration. Positive numbers indicate support...
Data
Genetic variation within populations (colored lines) and in the whole metapopulation (dashed grey line) depending on heritability (Esd; lower Esd implies higher heritability) and breadth of thermal tolerance (σ). Total metapopulation genetic variation stays constant over the 500 generations preceding warming (up to generation 0), indicating genetic...
Data
Bootstrap analysis of migration rates, divergence times, and population subdivision. (A) Migration among population pairs, with bootstrap-derived 95% confidence intervals. The pairs are identified on the x-axis and sorted by increasing geographical distance. Black bars–southward migration, grey bars–northward migration. (B) Boxplot of divergence ti...
Data
Effect of broader thermal tolerance (σ, standard deviation of the Gaussian slope of fitness decline away from the phenotypic optimum, in °C) and lower heritability (i.e. higher Esd, standard deviation of normally distributed random value added to the breeding value when calculating individual’s phenotype) on mean population fitness (relative to the...
Data
Example of two-population ∂a∂i model fit. (A) The model: ancestral population splits into two populations of unequal sizes (N1 and N2) some time T in the past, which exchange migrants with different rates depending on direction. (B) Observed allele frequency spectrum comparing Wilkie (W) and Keppel (K) populations. (C) Allele frequency spectrum gen...
Data
Detection of exponential population decline in the last 100 years (20 generations) when sampling 84 individuals. For each population size change scenario, ten datasets (evolution of 20,000 2bRAD loci in a population of 30,000 individuals) were simulated in SLiM. The line is median of 200 stairwayPlot bootstrap replicates for each of these datasets,...
Article
Full-text available
The aim of this study was to test historical and contemporary influences on population structure in the giant clams, Tridacna maxima (Röding, 1798) and T. crocea (Lamarck, 1819). To refine the location of clade boundaries within a newly resurrected species, Tridacna noae (Röding, 1798). Indo-Australian archipelago, including Indonesia, the Philippi...
Article
Full-text available
ContextSea lice are the most significant parasitic problem affecting wild and farmed salmon. Larval lice released from infected fish in salmon farms and their transport by water masses results in inter-farm networks of lice dispersal. Understanding this parasite connectivity is key to its control and effective management. Objectives Quantify the sp...
Article
Full-text available
Marine reserves are a commonly applied conservation tool, but their size is often chosen based on considerations of socio-economic rather than ecological impact. Here, we use a simple individual-based model together with the latest empirical information on home ranges and densities in 66 coral reef fishes to quantify the conservation effectiveness...
Preprint
Full-text available
Can genetic adaptation in reef-building corals keep pace with the current rate of sea surface warming? Here we combine population genomic, biophysical modeling, and evolutionary simulations to predict future adaptation of the common coral Acropora millepora on the Great Barrier Reef. Loss of coral cover in recent decades did not yet have detectable...
Article
Full-text available
Overfishing threatens the sustainability of coastal marine biodiversity, especially in tropical developing countries. To counter this problem, about 200 governments worldwide have committed to protecting 10%–20% of national coastal marine areas. However, associated impacts on fisheries productivity are unclear and could weaken the food security of...
Data
Exchange of fish across reserves boundaries calculated based on measured home ranges of adults and dispersal distances of larvae for the Spanish flag snapper Lutjanus carponotatus (A-B) and the spotted coral grouper Plectropomus maculatus (C-D). The results represent means across 100 random reserve network designs. Plots on the left assume reserve...
Data
Isolated impacts of five potential drivers of fisheries productivity on reserve coverage targets. Results show declines in catch under optimal exploitation (blue), and increases in catch under over-exploitation (red) as predicted by our spatially-explicit model in 1 km resolution. All scenarios represent the Spanish flag snapper (Lutjanus carponota...
Data
Larval dispersal kernels used for all spatially-explicit calculations. Kernels (solid lines) are based on the Gaussian distance decay function fitted to mean (±SD) realized dispersal distances of (A) the Spanish flag snapper Lutjanus carponotatus (7.4 ± 8.5 km) and (B) the spotted coral grouper Plectropomus maculatus (8.6 ± 7.5 km). Model predictio...
Data
Reserve impacts on long-term fishery profits under open access dynamics. Upper plots assume increasing levels of change in fishing effort relative to current profit under initially optimal exploitation (A) and overexploitation (B). Maximum biannual change in effort ≥50% resulted in fishery collapse if no reserves were implemented. Lower plots (C) a...
Data
Key drivers of the fishery functioning of reserves. This table is an annotated version of Table 1, providing a description of mechanisms behind simulated fishery trends, as well as additional information on parameter impacts and uncertainties. (DOCX)
Data
The influence of post-settlement density-dependent mortality on recruitment calculated based on the Beverton-Holt function. The “steepness” parameter h, which quantifies the degree of recruitment compensation, is a traditional uncertainty in fishery models with a critical impact on predictions of recruitment (A) and, thus, sustainable fishery yield...
Data
Spatially-explicit predictions of the impact of reserve coverage on the percentage of unfished biomass and maximum catch for two key fishery species. Outcomes represent the Spanish flag snapper Lutjanus carponotatus (A-C) and the spotted coral grouper Plectropomus maculatus (D-F). Lines are medians ± ranges across 100 random reserve network designs...
Data
Distribution of fishers (A), catch (B), and catch per unit of effort (C) in relation to the fisher movement parameter used in additional simulations. Results are based on our spatially-explicit model for the snapper (Lutjanus carponotatus, see S3 Table for parameterization) and mean reserve sizes of 1-2 km, presenting a snapshot of equilibrium fish...
Data
The impact of large-scale asymmetric connectivity and systematic reserve design on coverage targets. Results refer to the maximum reserve coverage without fisheries costs (left) and the optimum reserve coverage for fisheries rebuilding (right) under different reserve siting strategies. Dashed lines in plots reference reserve coverage targets for ou...
Data
Marine reserve coverage targets to sustain and rebuild unregulated fisheries. Values are means ± standard deviations as presented in Fig 1, but showing results for all combinations of fish movement scenarios. Percentages of catch and biomass refer to maxima, i.e. maximum sustainable yield and unfished biomass. Minimum and maximum reserve coverages...
Data
Parameters and parameterization used to derive marine reserve coverage targets. The numbers in brackets denote default assumptions (if any) and samples sizes presented in Fig 1. The two Keppel islands scenarios were run using both the spatially-implicit and spatially-explicit version of our model. (DOCX)
Data
The impact of strong gradients in habitat quality and systematic reserve design on coverage targets. Results refer to the maximum reserve coverage without fisheries costs (A) and the optimum reserve coverage for fishery rebuilding (B) under different reserve siting strategies. The dashed line in A indicates the maximum coverage for our baseline sce...
Data
Reserve impacts on short-term fishery profits under open access dynamics. Results are based on the biological assumptions specified for the snapper Lutjanus carponotatus in S3 Table, showing an initially healthy (A) and overfished (B) fishery. Simulations assume (1) dynamic changes in effort (10% maximum biannual change), (2) a profitability thresh...
Article
Full-text available
Larval dispersal by ocean currents is a critical component of systematic marine protected area (MPA) design. However, there is a lack of quantitative methods to incorporate larval dispersal in support of increasingly diverse management objectives, including local population persistence under multiple types of threats (primarily focused on larval re...
Article
The coral reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) are some of the most geographically isolated of the world. A key to understanding their long-term persistence and population recovery via dispersal (i.e. population connectivity), is knowing when the corals spawn in the region. To this end, we reviewed and synthesized the literature on the repro...
Article
Population genomic approaches are making rapid inroads in the study of non-model organisms, including marine taxa. To date, these marine studies have predominantly focused on rudimentary metrics describing the spatial and environmental context of their study region (e.g. geographical distance, average sea surface temperature, average salinity). We...
Article
Full-text available
Conservation of ecological communities requires deepening our understanding of genetic diversity patterns and drivers at community-wide scales. Here, we use seascape genetic analysis of a diversity metric, allelic richness (AR), for 47 reef species sampled across 13 Hawaiian Islands to empirically demonstrate that large reefs high in coral cover ha...
Article
AimTo determine which seascape features have shaped the spatial genetic patterns of coral reef fishes, and to identify common patterns among species related to dispersal traits [egg type and pelagic larval duration (PLD)].LocationIndian and Pacific Oceans, including the Indo-Australian Archipelago.Methods We sampled coral reef fishes with differing...
Article
Full-text available
We integrated coral reef connectivity data for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into a conservation decision-making framework for designing a regional scale marine protected area (MPA) network that provides insight into ecological and political contexts. We used an ocean circulation model and regional coral reef data to simulate eight spawning even...
Article
Full-text available
Population connectivity, which is essential for the persistence of benthic marine metapopulations, depends on how life history traits and the environment interact to influence larval production, dispersal and survival. Although we have made significant advances in our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of these individual processes,...
Article
Full-text available
Multinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navigate trade-offs among multiple objectives. It seems logical to focus where several objectives can be achieved efficiently, but such multi-objective hotspots may be ecologically inappropriate, or politically inequitable. Here we devise a framework to fac...