Emmanuel Salas

Emmanuel Salas
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México | UNAM · School of Economy

PhD

About

30
Publications
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117
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Introduction
Emmanuel Salas currently works at the School of Economy, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Emmanuel does research in Public Economics, Macroeconomics and Econometrics. Their current project is '"Monetary policy and labor markets precariousness in Mexico, an alternative explanation to slow groth (2000 - 2020)"'.

Publications

Publications (30)
Article
p align="center"> RESUMEN La velocidad de cambio del desempleo en las contracciones y en las expansiones es muy diferente. En las primeras hay rápido aumento del desempleo y su reducción es lenta en las fases de crecimiento ( easy to fire, hard to hire ). Con un modelo Threshold (Bai y Perron, 2003) con brecha de desempleo probamos la presencia d...
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editorial ¿Es posible evitar rechazos injustificados? Los megajournals En Loría (2021) se trató ampliamente el terrible asunto de buenos artículos académicos rechazados (de modo injustificado) por malas prácticas de árbitros y editores, por lo que ahora surge la pregunta de si es posible evitar ese tipo de rechazos al suprimir-o al menos reducir-la...
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Resumen La profundidad de la crisis sanitaria, económica y humanitaria que están sufriendo varios países a causa del SARS-CoV-2 no es del todo atribuible a la presencia del virus, sino a la ignorancia, la negación y las acciones de sus gobiernos populistas. Este tipo de políticos llegaron al poder aprovechando el descontento social derivado de la d...
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The slow growth of Mexico is a major concern in academia and decision makers. Several hypotheses have been formulated for explanation. We focus our attention on the deficiencies of human capital generated by the increasing divorce rate. Arias et al. (2010) point out that the social stress derived from divorce reduces the intellectual and cognitive...
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En México, como en el resto del mundo, la tasa de desempleo juvenil es muy superior a la del resto de la economía y esta relación no parece cambiar con el ciclo económico. Para México encontramos que los jóvenes con menor educación y menores ingresos experimentan menor tasa de desempleo que los jóvenes de los estratos socioeconómicos y educativos m...
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A partir de la teoría de la elección racional probamos econométricamente los determinantes económicos del robo a través de un BVAR que analiza la relación del robo con la precariedad del mercado laboral y el desempleo de los varones de 15 a 24 años con baja escolaridad. Verificamos que existe un círculo vicioso entre precariedad del mercado laboral...
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This paper uses Kaldor’s first law to provide an explanation for Mexico’s low economic growth over the last four decades. The starting point for analysis is the hypothesis that the lack of dynamism in total production (non-manufacturing) is due to slow momentum in manufacturing and, in particular, to the fact that the Kaldor coefficient has decreas...
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Tourism is a very important sector for the Mexican economy since its great capacity to generate jobs. Specifically, it can improve the overall economic growth through the expenditure of international visitors and being an important source of foreign currency. In this paper, through a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR) -corroborated by a...
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El turismo en un sector muy importante de la economía mexicana debido a su gran capacidad generadora de empleos. En específico, es capaz de estimular el crecimiento económico a través del gasto que los visitantes internacionales erogan, además de ser una importante fuente de divisas. En este trabajo, a través de un Modelo Estructural de Vectores Au...
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The huge growth of the informal sector, the labor market relief valve, has conditioned the low Mexican economic growth since the early 1980´s. From a Lewis (1954) model's review, we propose that the growth of informality has limited economic growth, through the systematically factorial productivity reduction. A VECM(4) supports evidence about the...
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El desmedido aumento del sector informal, tradicional válvula de escape del mercado laboral, ha condicionado un lento crecimiento de la economía mexicana desde la década de los ochenta. A partir de una lectura del modelo de Lewis (1954), proponemos que el crecimiento de la informalidad en México ha creado limitantes al crecimiento de largo plazo, m...
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Based on an extension of Todaro’s (1976) canonical migration model, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) (2007Q3-2012Q3, Q indicates the corresponding quarter. Here, the period from the third quarter of 2007 until the same quarter of 2012.) was estimated. We prove that the decline in Mexican migratory flows to the United States since 2005 is rela...
Chapter
A structural vector error correction (SVEC) model was constructed as an information system that contains: US Industrial Output, the monetary aggregate M2, the Unemployment Rate, and the Real Exchange Rate (Mexico to the USA). The model fulfills all the correct specification tests, and proved to be structurally stable through some recursive tests. T...
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Due to the fact that labor flexibility has become an increasing condition in labor markets, we estimated the effect of labor flexibility on the unemployment rate in Mexico for 1997Q3-2014Q1. For this fact, we estimated a VECM(4) inspired on the Okun's Law which includes a labor flexibility index, measured by the ratio of the temporary contracts to...
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La flexibilidad laboral se ha convertido en una condición en el mercado de trabajo. Se analiza el efecto que ha tenido sobre la tasa de desempleo en México (1997Q3-2014Q1). Se estima un VECM(4) inspirado en la Ley de Okun (1962) que incluye un índice de flexibilidad laboral definido como el cociente de contratos temporales a total de empleados en e...
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We estimated the progressive, structural synchronization of the Mexican growth cycle to that of the US (total and industrial) for 1980.1-2013.4. By applying the Quandt-Andrews (1993) and Bai-Perron (2003) unknown-breakpoint tests, we identified that before 1994.4 there was no statistically significant relationship between the Mexican GDP growth cyc...
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Obesity in Mexico and the world has been growing systematically, to the extent that it has become a pandemic with serious consequences in very serious public health conditions such as hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and cancer, all of which have a strong impact on public finances and in economic growth. In Mexico, since the 1990s,...
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La obesidad en México y el mundo ha ido creciendo sistemáticamente, al grado que se ha convertido en una pandemia con fuertes consecuencias en padecimientos muy graves de salud pública como hipertensión, enfermedades cardiovasculares, diabetes y cáncer, todo lo cual tiene fuertes impactos en las finanzas públicas y en el crecimiento económico. En...
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A quadratic version of the first-difference Okun’s Law model was estimated for Spain (1995.Q1-2012.Q2). An accelerationist version of Okun’s Law was obtained, which allowed us to calculate variable Okun coefficients as well as critical points in the relationship between construction sector growth and the variation in overall unemployment. The optim...
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A quadratic version of the first-difference Okun’s Law model was estimated for Spain (1995.Q1-2012.Q2). An accelerationist version of Okun’s Law was obtained, which allowed us to calculate variable Okun coefficients as well as critical points in the relationship between construction sector growth and the variation in overall unemployment. The optim...
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By using the X-12-ARIMA procedure and the HP filter (λ=1 096) with end-of-sample correction (St. Amant and van Norden, 1997; Sarabia, 2010), we identified the growth cycles and estimated the potential output for the Mexican economy (1980.1- 2013.4). We found that: a) there have been six cycles, b) their duration is of about 15-22 quarters, c) their...
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Con el procedimiento X-12-ARIMA y el filtro HP (λ=1 096) corregido al final de la muestra (St. Amant y van Norden, 1997; Sarabia, 2010) identificamos los ciclos de crecimiento y calculamos el crecimiento del producto potencial de México (1980.1-2013.4). Encontramos que: a) existen seis ciclos, b) su duración varía entre 15 y 22 trimestres, c) la am...
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Through a structural vector error correction model, one restricted cointegrating relationship for monthly data (1999.01–2012.04) was found between three exchange parities of great relevance for the Mexican economy: US Dollar–Euro, Mexican Peso–US Dollar, and Mexican Peso–Euro. The data's structure revealed endogeneity of the last one, but the first...
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The Spanish economy implemented an economic model (1995-2007) based on the construction sector. Until 2007 this model enhanced economic growth and reduced notably the unemployment rate. The outcome of the US's subprime meltdown in 2008 was the opposite. Resumen Durante 1995-2007 España siguió un modelo económico basado en el sector de la construcci...
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By estimating the first difference Okun's model for the Mexican economy (2000.2- 2011.1), we empirically found a difference in the product rate of growth arising from unemployment of women and men. This outcome suggests the existence of different productivities by gender. We estimated an unrestricted vector autoregressive model (UVAR) with generali...
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Full-text available
By estimating the first difference Okun's model for the Mexican economy (2000.2-2011.1), we empirically found a difference in the product rate of growth arising from unemployment of women and men. This outcome suggests the existence of different productivities by gender. We estimated an unrestricted vector autoregressive model (UVAR) with generaliz...
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We estimate the long run determinants of total female employment in the Mexican labor market (2000.II-2009.IV) by the technique of structural vector error correction (SVEC). On the one hand, we found that there is a strong and rapid integration of women into the labor market and also a tendency for women to insert in the informal sector. On the oth...
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Full-text available
We estimate the long run determinants of total female employment in the Mexican labor market (2000.II-2009.IV) by the technique of structural vector error correction (SVEC). On the one hand, we found that there is a strong and rapid integration of women into the labor market and also a tendency for women to insert in the informal sector. On the oth...

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