Emma Mcbryde

James Cook University | JCU · Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine

Background Traditional epidemiological models tend to oversimplify the transmission dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) to replicate observed tuberculosis (TB) epidemic patterns. This has led to growing interest in advanced methodologies like agent-based modelling (ABM), which can more accurately represent the complex heterogeneity of TB...

Purpose of Review This review discusses the trends of bacteraemia and their outcomes in tropical regions of Australia. Bacteraemia can frequently lead to severe sepsis and potentially life-threatening consequences. Epidemiology of bacteraemia is ever evolving. Recent Findings This review outlines the current patterns of bacteraemia in tropical reg...

The field of software engineering is advancing at astonishing speed, with packages now available to support many stages of data science pipelines. These packages can support infectious disease modelling to be more robust, efficient and transparent, which has been particularly important during the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a package for the co...

Background: The resurgence of measles, a highly contagious infectious disease, has risen to a global public health emergency of international concern. Methods: A stochastic meta-population model, adapted from the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered compartment model, was employed to assess the risk of measles importation. This model was adjus...

Background: Traditional epidemiological models simplify many aspects of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission to capture observed tuberculosis (TB) epidemic dynamics, leading to interest in more advanced methodologies,such as agent-based modelling (ABM), that can more flexibly represent the underlying complexity. We synthesised evidence on the ap...

Background The vast region of northern Queensland (NQ) in Australia experiences poorer health outcomes and a disproportionate burden of communicable diseases compared with urban populations in Australia. This study examined the governance of COVID-19 surveillance and response in NQ to identify strengths and opportunities for improvement. Methods T...

Paediatric tuberculosis can be challenging to diagnose, and various approaches are used in different settings. A retrospective review was conducted on Papua New Guinea (PNG) children with presumptive TB who presented for health care in the Torres Strait Islands, Australia, between 2016 and 2019. We compared diagnostic algorithms including the modif...

The field of software engineering is advancing at astonishing speed, with packages now available to support many stages of data science pipelines. These packages can support infectious disease modelling to be more robust, efficient and transparent, which has been particularly important during the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a package for the co...

Infectious disease modelling has been prominent throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, help- ing to understand the virus' transmission dynamics and inform response policies. Given their potential importance and translational impact, we evaluated the computational reproducibility of infectious disease modelling articles from the COVID era. We found that...

Infectious disease outbreaks often exhibit superspreader dynamics, where most infected people generate no, or few secondary cases, and only a small fraction of individuals are responsible for a large proportion of transmission. Although capturing this heterogeneity is critical for estimating outbreak risk and the effectiveness of group-specific int...

From October 2014 to February 2019, local authorities in Townsville, North Queensland, Australia continually introduced Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to control seasonal outbreaks of dengue infection. In this study, we develop a mathematical modelling framework to estimate the effectiveness of this intervention as well as the relative dengue transm...

Introduction: Delays between self-reported symptom onset and commencement of effective treatment contribute to ongoing tuberculosis (TB) transmission, which is a particular concern in patients with drug-resistant (DR)-TB. The study authors assessed improvements in time to commencement of effective treatment in patients diagnosed with DR-TB in the...

Vector control methods are considered effective in averting dengue transmission. However, several factors may modify their impact. Of these controls, chemical methods, in the long run, may increase mosquitoes’ resistance to chemicides, thereby decreasing control efficacy. The biological methods, which may be self-sustaining and very effective, coul...

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) is an ongoing challenge in the Torres Strait Islands (TSI) / Papua New Guinea (PNG) border region. Treatment success rates have historically been poor for patients diagnosed with DR-TB, leading to increased transmission. This study aimed to identify variables associated with unfavourable outcome in patients diagn...

Wolbachia intracellular bacteria successfully reduce the transmissibility of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) when introduced into virus-carrying vectors such as mosquitoes. Despite the progress made by introducing Wolbachia bacteria into the Aedes aegypti wild-type population to control arboviral infections, reports suggest that heat-induced...

Community-associated, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) lineages have emerged in many geographically distinct regions around the world during the past 30 y. Here, we apply consistent phylodynamic methods across multiple community- associated MRSA lineages to describe and contrast their patterns of emergence and dis- semination. We...

Australia avoided the worst effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, but still experienced many negative impacts. Reflecting on lessons from Australia's public health response, an Australian expert panel composed of relevant discipline experts identified the following key lessons: 1) movement restrictions were effective, but their implementation requires...

Leptospirosis is the most common bacterial zoonosis globally. The pathogen, Leptospira spp., is primarily associated with rodent reservoirs. However, a wide range of other species have been implicated as reservoirs or dead‐end hosts. We conducted a survey for Leptospira spp. in bats and rodents from Papua New Guinea. Kidney samples were collected f...

Wolbachia intracellular bacteria successfully reduce the transmissibility of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) when introduced into virus-carrying vectors such as mosquitoes. Despite the progress made by introducing Wolbachia bacteria into the Aedes aegypti wild-type population to control arboviral infections, reports suggest that heat-induced...

The international border between Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) serves as a gateway for the delivery of primary and tertiary healthcare for PNG patients presenting to Australian health facilities with presumptive tuberculosis (TB). An audit of all PNG nationals with presumptive TB who presented to clinics in the Torres Strait between 2016 and...

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) is an ongoing challenge in the Torres Strait Islands (TSI) / Papua New Guinea (PNG) border region. Treatment success rates have historically been poor for patients diagnosed with DR-TB, leading to increased transmission. This study aimed to identify variables associated with unfavourable outcome in patients diagn...

Background: Ambitious population-based screening programmes for latent and active tuberculosis (TB) were implemented in the Republic of the Marshall Islands in 2017 and 2018. Methods: We used a transmission dynamic model of TB informed by local data to capture the Marshall Islands epidemic's historical dynamics. We then used the model to project...

Tuberculosis (TB) is an airborne infectious disease that causes millions of deaths worldwide each year (1.2 million people died in 2019). Alarmingly, several strains of the causative agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB)—including drug-susceptible (DS) and drug-resistant (DR) variants—already circulate throughout most developing and developed cou...

Nanopore sequencing and phylodynamic modelling have been used to reconstruct the transmission dynamics of viral epidemics, but their application to bacterial pathogens has remained challenging. Cost-effective bacterial genome sequencing and variant calling on nanopore platforms would greatly enhance surveillance and outbreak response in communities...

Genomic neighbor typing enables heuristic inference of bacterial lineages and phenotypes from nanopore sequencing data. However, small reference databases may not be sufficiently representative of the diversity of lineages and genotypes present in a collection of isolates. In this study, we explore the use of genomic neighbor typing for surveillanc...

Introduction Delays between self-reported symptom onset and commencement of effective treatment contribute to ongoing tuberculosis (TB) transmission; this is a particular concern in patients with drug-resistant (DR)-TB. We assessed improvements in time to commencement of effective treatment in patients diagnosed with DR-TB in the Torres Strait regi...

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a disease of public health significance at the Australia / Papua New Guinea (PNG) international border. In the remote Torres Strait Islands, aeromedical evacuation is a necessary but costly component of TB management and patients with critical care needs require support to prevent onward TB transmission. A detailed costing...

We analysed and simulated a two-strain Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with varying population size and nonlinear incidence. We found that in addition to the infection-free and two single-strain endemic equilibria, the non-linear incidence term induces a fourth equilibrium point where the two strains co-exist. We determined the c...

During 2020, Victoria was the Australian state hardest hit by COVID-19, but was successful in controlling its second wave through aggressive policy interventions. We calibrated a detailed compartmental model of Victoria’s second wave to multiple geographically-structured epidemic time-series indicators. We achieved a good fit overall and for indivi...

Introduction As of 3rd June 2021, Malaysia is experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In response, the federal government has implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under a series of Movement Control Orders and, more recently, a vaccination campaign to regain epidemic control. In this study, we assessed the potential for t...

Objectives To analyse the direct and indirect effects of vaccination by vaccine type, age-strategy, and coverage on Australia’s Coronavirus Disease 2019 epidemic. Design Our model incorporates age-specific mixing, infectiousness, susceptibility and severity to assess the final size of the epidemic under different public health intervention scenari...

Background COVID-19 initially caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with many high-income countries, possibly because of differing demographics, socioeconomics, surveillance, and policy responses. Here, we investigate the role of multiple factors on COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines, a LMIC that ha...

The Australian National Cabinet four-step plan to transition to post-pandemic re-opening begins with vaccination to achieve herd protection and protection of the health system against a surge in COVID-19 cases. Assuming a pre-vaccination reproduction number for the Delta variant of 5, we show that for the current Mixed program of vaccinating over 6...

Background: In this study, we aimed to assess the risk factors associated with mortality due to an infectious disease over the short-, medium-, and long-term based on a data-linkage study for patients discharged from an infectious disease unit in North Queensland, Australia, between 2006 and 2011. Methods: Age-sex standardised mortality rates (S...

Introduction As of 3rd June 2021, Malaysia is experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In response, the federal government has implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under a series of Movement Control Orders and, more recently, a vaccination campaign to regain epidemic control. In this study, we assessed the potential for t...

Mathematical modelling has played a pivotal role in understanding the epidemiology of and guiding public health responses to the ongoing coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we review the role of epidemiological models in understanding evolving epidemic characteristics, including the effects of vaccination and Variants of Concern...

Background We aimed to estimate the disease burden of Tuberculosis (TB) and return on investment of TB care in selected high-burden countries of the Western Pacific Region (WPR) until 2030. Methods We projected the TB epidemic in Viet Nam and Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) 2020–2030 using a mathematical model under various scenarios: count...

Many tuberculosis (TB) cases in low-incidence settings are attributed to reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI) acquired overseas. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of community-based LTBI screening and treatment strategies in recent migrants to a low-incidence setting (Australia). A decision-analytic Markov model was developed that cycled one...

Background: Few low-incidence countries are on track to achieve the ambitious target of reaching TB pre-elimination by 2035. Australia is a high-income country with a low burden of TB, which is particularly concentrated in migrant populations. As part of Australia's migration program, permanent, provisional and humanitarian visa applicants are scre...

Nanopore sequencing and phylodynamic modelling have been used to reconstruct the transmission dynamics of viral epidemics, but their application to bacterial pathogens has remained challenging. Here, we implement Random Forest models for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) polishing to estimate divergence and effective reproduction numbers (R e )...

Tuberculosis (TB) exhibits considerable spatial heterogeneity, occurring in clusters that may act as hubs of community transmission. We evaluated the impact of an intervention targeting spatial TB hotspots in a rural region of Ethiopia. To evaluate the impact of targeted active case finding (ACF), we used a spatially structured mathematical model t...

Community-associated, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) lineages have emerged in many geographically distinct regions around the world during the past 30 years. Here, we apply consistent phylodynamic methods across multiple community-associated MRSA lineages to describe and contrast their patterns of emergence and dissemination. We...

Objective: To investigate the admission characteristics and hospital outcomes for patients admitted with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in Northern Queensland. Methods: We perform a retrospective analysis of the data covering an 11‐year period, 2006–2016. Length of hospital stay (LOS) is modelled by negative binomial regression and hete...

Rationale: The heterogeneity in efficacy observed in studies of BCG vaccination is not fully explained by currently accepted hypotheses, such as latitudinal gradient in non-tuberculous mycobacteria exposure. Methods: We updated previous systematic reviews of the effectiveness of BCG vaccination to 31 December 2020. We employed an identical searc...

Victoria has been Australia's hardest hit state by the COVID-19 pandemic, but was successful in reversing its second wave of infections through aggressive policy interventions. The clear reversal in the epidemic trajectory combined with information on the timing and geographical scope of policy interventions offers the opportunity to estimate the r...

Acute respiratory infections appear to precipitate vascular events. Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke are the leading cause of death and disability globally. This study was based on a cohort of patients admitted to Townsville University Hospital between January 2006 and December 2016. Using a self-controlled case series design, we invest...

Background: Ambitious population-based screening programs for latent and active tuberculosis (TB) were implemented in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) in 2017 and 2018. Methods: We used a transmission dynamic model of TB informed by local data to capture the historical dynamics of the RMI epidemic. We then used the model to project the fu...

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in Bangladesh. Although the National TB control program of Bangladesh is implementing a comprehensive expansion of TB control strategies, logistical challenges exist, and there is significant uncertainty concerning the disease burden. Mathematical modelling of TB is considered one of the most effec...

Introduction: Smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) requires rapid diagnosis and treatment to prevent ongoing transmission. Collection of two sputum specimens is considered the minimum requirement for the diagnosis of PTB but current guidelines in the Torres Strait Islands, Australia, recommend three sputum specimens; this frequently delays...

Background . The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) that was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China has now spread to every inhabitable continent, but now the attention has shifted from China to other epicentres. This study explored early assessment of the influence of spatial proximities and travel pattern...

Purpose: To examine how public trust mediates the people's adherence to levels of stringent government health policies and to establish if these effects vary across the political regimes. Methods: This study utilizes data from two large-scale surveys: the global behaviors and perceptions at the onset of COVID-19 pandemic and the Oxford COVID-19...

Background COVID-19 appears to have caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with high-income countries, possibly because of differing demographics, socio-economics, climate, surveillance, and policy responses. The Philippines is a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19 outbreak but has recently...

Arthropod-borne viruses (Arboviruses) continue to generate significant health and economic burdens for people living in endemic regions. Of these viruses, some of the most important (e.g., dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever virus), are transmitted mainly by Aedes mosquitoes. Over the years, viral infection control has targeted vector popul...

We investigate a two-strain disease model with amplification to simulate the prevalence of drug-susceptible (s) and drug-resistant (m) disease strains. Drug resistance first emerges when drug-susceptible strains mutate and become drug-resistant, possibly as a consequence of inadequate treatment , i.e. amplification. In this case, the drug-susceptib...

Background The variable efficacy observed in studies of BCG vaccination is incompletely explained by currently accepted hypotheses, such as latitudinal gradient in non-tuberculous mycobacteria exposure. We investigated heterogeneity in BCG vaccination in the context of participant demography, diagnostic approach and TB-related epidemiological conte...

In anticipation of COVID-19 vaccine deployment, we use an age-structured mathematical model to investigate the benefits of optimizing age-specific dose allocation to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Across 179 countries, we find that the highest priority individuals are typically those between 30 and 59 years of age because of their high contact r...

Abstract Arboviral infections such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya are fast spreading diseases that pose significant health problems globally. In order to control these infections, an intracellular bacterium called Wolbachia has been introduced into wild-type mosquito populations in the hopes of replacing the vector transmitting agent, Aedes aegypt...

Background If SARS-CoV-2 elimination is not feasible, strategies are needed to minimise the impact of COVID-19 in the medium-to-long term, until safe and effective vaccines can be used at the population-level. Methods Using a mathematical model, we identified contact mitigation strategies that minimised COVID-19-related deaths or years of life los...