Emma Aguila

University of Southern California | USC · Price School of Public Policy

Objectives: We explore the effects of non-contributory pensions on functional limitations and receipt of unpaid family care by gender and frequency of pension payment. Methods: We employ a difference-in-differences estimator to identify the causal effects of non-contributory pension programs disbursed monthly or every two months for adults 70 years...

Growth in older populations, and hence in the number of persons living with dementia, is particularly rapid for individuals of Mexican origin living in the U.S. and Mexico. In order to identify influences on cognitive health in this diverse population, the University Texas at Austin and Mexican National Institute of Geriatrics (INGER) organized the...

Research on the mortality effects of social insurance programs for older adults has generated conflicting results. Some studies suggest important health benefits, others find no effects, and still others find unintended adverse effects potentially linked to pathways such as increased obesity. Evidence has focused predominantly on short-run effects...

Mexico and the United States both face rapid population aging as well as older populations with high poverty rates. Among the most vulnerable populations of retirement age in either nation are Mexican immigrants to the United States. This work uses data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study and the Mexican Health and Aging Study to assess retir...

By 2050, one in five persons in the United States and Mexico will be at least 65 years of age (World Bank, 2019). Older adults in both nations face high poverty rates: among adults at least 66 years of age, nearly one in four in both nations have household incomes less than half the median levels in their nation (Organisation for Economic Co-operat...

As older populations around the world continue to increase, so does the number of individuals living with dementia (Prince et al., 2008; Prince, Ali, et al., 2016). Growth in older populations, and hence in likely numbers of persons living with dementia, is particularly rapid for persons of Mexican origin on both sides of the U.S.–Mexico border. In...

The world’s population is aging rapidly, with the proportion of persons age 60 and older in the total population expected to increase from 12% in 2015 to 22% by 2050 (World Health Organization, 2017). Similarly, in Mexico, the proportion of persons age 60 and older is expected to increase from 11.0% in 2019 to 22.6% by the year 2050 (The World Bank...

Older adults with multiple chronic conditions have a higher risk than those without multiple conditions of developing a mental health condition. Individuals with both physical and mental conditions face many substantial burdens. Many such individuals also belong to racial and ethnic minority groups. Private insurance coverage can reduce the risks o...

This study examines sources of vulnerabilities to dementia in low resource populations in two specific contexts—Mexico and the United States. Data are drawn from comparable waves of the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) and the Hispanic Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (H-EPESE) in 2012, which include represent...

Introduction: Substantial gaps in research remain across oldest-old ethnic populations while the burden of dementia increases exponentially with age among Mexican and Mexican American older adults. Methods: Prevalence and correlates of dementia among individuals ≥82 years of age were examined using two population-based cohort studies: The Mexica...

Background We documented results from a cluster-randomized controlled trial we designed to supplement incomes in poor towns among adults 70 or older. We analyzed effects on health by gender, persistence over time, and variation by payment frequency. Methods We compared supplemental income effects over an 18-month period for two towns in Yucatan, M...

Living arrangements often reflect important quality-of-life indicators for elderly adults. In particular, increased income can prompt changes in household living arrangements for elderly adults. Using a differences-in-differences approach, we examine whether a supplemental income program in Mexico for adults aged 70 and older influenced household s...

In countries such as Mexico without formal public long-term care policies, informal care becomes the main source of support for older adults. Alternative social programs, such as supplemental income programs, for older adults could alleviate caregiver burden, especially if supplemental income were to be used for paid care or to compensate non-paid...

Population aging in Mexico as in the United States is expected to accelerate over the next thirty years, and the proportion of individuals 65 and older will triple to approximately 20 percent by 2050 in both nations. Older people of Mexican origin are at high risk of protracted periods of poor health, a reality exacerbated by poverty. We use the He...

The United States and Mexico differ greatly in the organization and financing of their old-age welfare states. They also differ politically and organizationally in government response at all levels to the needs of low-income and frail citizens. While both countries are aging rapidly, Mexico faces more serious challenges in old-age support that aris...

This paper uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) to study the cognitive function of Mexican-born older adults residing in the United States (Mexican immigrants). We find that, once differences in socioeconomic factors are accounted for, the cognitive function of male Mexican immigrants is...

Introduction As old-age pensions continue to expand around the world in response to population ageing, policymakers increasingly wish to understand their impact on healthcare demand. In this paper, we examine the effects of supplemental income to older adults on healthcare use patterns, expenditures and insurance uptake in Yucatan, Mexico. Method...

Objective: To estimate the short-run (6-9 months) impact and mediating mechanisms of an intervention providing supplemental income to individuals 70 years and above from the Mexican state of Yucatan on markers of cognitive functioning (immediate and delayed word recall). Method: Regression-adjusted difference-in-differences (DID) analysis using bas...

In this study, we analyze factors that determine the likelihood of an individual undertaking caregiving responsibilities as well as the time spent providing assistance. We utilize a large sample of older adults (N = 2821) from a survey with rich information at the child and household member level (N = 16,014) in the State of Yucatan, Mexico. We def...

Immigrants are ineligible for federally-funded Medicaid in the U.S. until at least 5 years after arrival. There is little information on where they receive care in light of this restriction. Using Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition, this study examines whether the setting in which older recent immigrants receive care (i.e., health clinic, emergency room...

Non-contributory pension programs in the developing world seek to provide older adults with an income that may improve their health and wellbeing in old age by enabling access to health care and better nutrition. There is no previous evidence of the effects of non-contributory pensions on frailty, a comprehensive measure of health and well-being of...

Characteristics of Valladolid and Motul, Yucatan 2005. (DOCX)

Inequality and development indexes of the state and federal pension programs municipalities and other municipalities. (DOCX)

Comparison of baseline descriptive characteristics for all baseline, panel, and deceased respondents. (DOCX)

Program participation rates of government programs. (DOCX)

Comparison of baseline descriptive characteristics for all baseline, panel, and deceased respondents. (DOCX)

Density curves propensity score before matching. (DOCX)

OLS regressions to test for common trends in households with individuals 70 or older in the state and federal pension programs municipalities, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. (DOCX)

Completed interviews and not completed interviews at baseline. (DOCX)

The observed racial/ethnic gap in bank account ownership among older adults is substantial. We investigate socioeconomic, cognitive, and cultural barriers underling it. As additional potential barriers are accounted for, the residual gaps in financial inclusion with respect to Whites are reduced by 19% for blacks and 46% for Hispanics. We find that...

We analyze two noncontributory Mexican pension programs for the elderly. Both paid similar amounts, but one paid monthly while the other paid every two months. The Life Cycle Hypothesis suggests frequency of benefits payments should not affect consumption smoothing, but we find the monthly program was more effective in smoothing food expenditure. I...

Older adults make up an increasing share of new legal immigrants to the United States. These immigrants are often financially dependent on family since they are often barred from receiving several US support programmes and are less likely to receive US retirement benefits than natives. However, little information exists as to whether they receive r...

Purpose For decades, scholars have studied the effects of immigration on the U.S. social security system. To date, this research has been primarily limited to migrants within the United States and does not consider those who return to their countries of origin. We estimate the proportion of male Mexican return migrants who contributed to the U.S. s...

We conducted a qualitative study on retirement preparedness among middle-aged and older low-income Hispanics in Los Angeles. Data derived from four focus groups conducted in the greater Los Angeles area. Findings demonstrate how behavioral and cultural factors-family experiences, religiosity, and denial of retirement-explain the lack of savings and...

Aging populations and the prevalence of poverty in old age have led to the introduction of noncontributory pensions in many countries. We consider a number of alternative targeting approaches and simulate their effects in an empirical application in the State of Yucatan, Mexico. We compare the approaches with respect to leakage, under-coverage, and...

The informed-consent process seeks to provide complete information to participants about a research project and to protect personal information they may disclose. In this article, we present an informed-consent process that we piloted and improved to obtain consent from older adults in Yucatan, Mexico. Respondents had limited fluency in Spanish, sp...

Background Despite increasing concern about the quality of life of older adults, little is known about characteristics associated with health risk behaviors among older adults in middle-income countries. This study relied on unique longitudinal data to examine the relationship between sociodemographic characteristics and alcohol use among low-incom...

We study health effects of financial inclusion, particularly ownership of a bank account of older minorities, with focus on Hispanics. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study from 2000 to 2012, we find that, for Hispanics, being banked has a positive effect on mental health but is not associated with effects on physical health. Mental healt...

Population aging coupled with high poverty rates among older persons and a lack of access to social-security benefits or traditional support systems have led governments in low and middle-income countries to introduce non-contributory pension programs for the elderly. This article reviews a non-contributory pension program introduced in Mexico in 2...

For decades scholars have attempted to understand the effects of immigration on the U.S. Social Security system. To date, this research has been primarily limited to migrants in the U.S. and does not consider those who return to their countries of origin. Immigrants often pay OASDI taxes using illegitimate Social Security numbers and may return to...

Recently, the phenomenon of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) has come to the fore due to the risks associated to this situation. The contribution of this paper is in its analysis of this population’s composition, dynamics, poverty patterns, individual and family characteristics, as well as projections for 2030. In additi...

In this study, we examine the factors associated with self-employment for Mexicans close to retirement age, including the role of U.S. migration experience and health insurance. Using cross-tabulation and probit models on a unique source of information, the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) panel data for 2001, 2003, and 2012, we find that indi...

Significance Effects of income support on well-being and health of the poor elderly especially in low-income country settings is uncertain as experiments that increase incomes and evaluate their impacts on health among the elderly population are almost nonexistent around the world. In our experiment in the Mexican state of Yucatan, we find strong e...

Ethical and legal considerations require that human research subjects who provide certain kinds of information be able to provide informed consent when doing so. Obtaining consent from older people and from people with low levels of literacy or limited language fluency can pose challenges. For field trials, researchers evaluating the impact of a pe...

The goal of this study is to deepen the understanding of how middle age and older Hispanics plan for retirement, where we conducted four focus groups in the Los Angeles area with a total of 38 participants. Our study provides interesting findings, specifically for women since 84 percent of the participants were female. We find that that most partic...

In 1997, Mexico transformed its pay-as-you-go social security system to a fully funded system with personal retirement accounts, including management fees. This article examines changes in retirement wealth resulting from this new system. It shows that management fees have drained a significant proportion of individuals’ retirement wealth and have...

Labor-force participation among Mexican males in their early retirement years (60 to 64 years of age) has decreased in recent decades, from 94.6 percent in 1960 to 65.2 percent in 2010. Similar trends are evident elsewhere in Latin America, and have occurred in the developed world. Such trends pose challenges to financial sustainability of social s...

In 2007, the government of Yucatan, Mexico, and the RAND Corporation established a collaborative agreement to design and implement a noncontributory pension program and simultaneously evaluate it through a longitudinal study. This report describes the administration and results of two surveys in Merida, a social observation and a local observation...

Mexico's population is aging, and a high proportion of its elderly are poor. This report describes a collaborative effort by the Yucatan government and the RAND Corporation to design, implement, and evaluate a state government program to provide cash benefits to the elderly to improve their well-being as measured by a comprehensive socioeconomic su...

Mexico's population is aging, and a high proportion of its elderly are poor. This report describes a collaborative effort by the Yucatan government and the RAND Corporation to design, implement, and evaluate a state government program to provide cash benefits to the elderly to improve their well-being as measured by a comprehensive socioeconomic su...

Objective: Investigate the "salmon-bias" hypothesis, which posits that Mexicans in the U.S. return to Mexico due to poor health, as an explanation for the Hispanic health paradox in which Hispanics in the United States are healthier than might be expected from their socioeconomic status. Method: Sample includes Mexicans age 50 years or above liv...

La situación de los jóvenes que no estudian ni trabajan (ninis) se ha vuelto notable en los últimos años debido a los posibles riesgos que enfrenta esta población. Este estudio analiza su composición, dinámica social, estado de pobreza, así como sus características individuales y familiares. Los ninis son en su mayoría mujeres que se dedican al hog...

In the absence of a bilateral agreement for the portability and totalization of social security contributions between the United States and Mexico, this article examines the access to pension and health insurance benefits and employment status of older Mexican return migrants. We find that return migrants who have spent less than a year in the Unit...

Résumé En l'absence de contrat bilatéral entre les Etats-Unis et le Mexique sur la portabilité et la totalisation des cotisations de sécurité sociale, le présent article examine l'accès aux prestations d'assurance-maladie et de retraite et le statut d'emploi des travailleurs migrants mexicains. Nous avons constaté que les migrants qui rentrent chez...

Resumen A falta de un convenio entre los Estados Unidos y México sobre la portabilidad y la totalización de los períodos computables a la seguridad social, en el presente artículo se examina el acceso a las pensiones y las prestaciones del seguro social, así como la situación laboral de los trabajadores migrantes mexicanos de edades más avanzadas q...

Auszug Angesichts einer fehlenden bilateralen Vereinbarung über die Übertragbarkeit und Summierung von Beiträgen der sozialen Sicherheit zwischen den Vereinigten Staaten und Mexiko widmet sich diese Untersuchung den Fragen zum Zugang zurückkehrender älterer mexikanischer Migranten zu Renten- und Krankenversicherungsleistungen sowie ihres Beschäftig...

El envejecimiento es un fenómeno mundial con implicaciones en diversos rubros y del cual México no está exento. Este estudio analiza la sostenibilidad financiera del programa federal de pensión no contributiva de atención a adultos mayores en México. La expansión del programa -- con la finalidad de cubrir a una mayor cantidad de localidades y pobla...

This analysis of aging and income security in Mexico establishes that the older population in Mexico is increasing quickly and that this population is especially vulnerable to poverty. Mexican citizens are living longer and overall have experienced an improvement in the quality of life compared to that of prior generations. However, this study demo...

Targeting based on individuals or households needs instead of applying universal programs helps distribute scarce resources to those who need it most, avoiding “leakage” of the poverty budget to non-poor households. In this paper, the authors explore the use of different household and individual characteristics for targeting needy households. They...

This binational reference for U.S. and Mexican policymakers presents the interrelated issues of Mexican immigration to the United States and Mexico's economic and social development. Differences in economic growth, wages, and the employment situation between two countries are critical determinants of immigration patterns, and the migration of labor...

Non-contributory social security programs have been implemented in at least 15 countries around the world. These are cash transfer programs aimed at poverty alleviation among the elderly population. Previous studies have found that these programs reduce poverty and inequality, while the health effects are less clear. This study designs and evaluate...

Previous empirical literature has found a sharp decline in consumption during the first years of retirement, implying that individuals do not save enough for their retirement. This phenomenon is called the retirement consumption puzzle. We find no evidence of the retirement consumption puzzle using panel data from 1980 to 2000. Consumption is defin...

Aging populations are leading countries worldwide to social security reforms. Many countries are moving from pay-as-you-go to personal retirement account (PRA) systems because of their financial sustainability and positive impact on private savings. PRA systems boost private savings at a macro level by converting a government liability into financi...

Previous empirical literature has found a sharp decline in consumption during the first years of retirement, implying that individuals do not save enough for their retirement. This phenomenon is called the retirement consumption puzzle. We find no evidence of the retirement consumption puzzle using panel data from 1980 to 2000. Consumption is defin...

This analysis of aging and income security in Mexico establishes that the older population in Mexico is increasing quickly and that this population is especially vulnerable to poverty. Mexican citizens are living longer and overall have experienced an improvement in the quality of life compared to that of prior generations. However, this study demo...

This paper compares the differences of individual coverage in the fully-funded social security systems of three Latin American countries. Chile, Columbia, and Mexico each have defined contributions social security systems, yet there are significant differences in system design and incentive that may affect individuals’ participation. Here, we exami...