Emile Chappin

Emile Chappin
Delft University of Technology | TU · Department of Infrastructure Systems & Services

PhD

About

135
Publications
19,188
Reads
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1,897
Citations
Introduction
Emile’s research interest is in the role of simulation modelling, in particular agent-based modelling on the domain of energy systems. In his research, Emile connects developments in modelling methodology to an understanding of complex socio-technical energy systems in order to better understand how to model, analyse and design (parts) of the energy transition. His primary interests are to unravel the possible long-term dynamics of energy systems and how they are shaped by energy policies, and i
Additional affiliations
December 2012 - present
Independent Researcher
Independent Researcher
Position
  • Senior Researcher
February 2012 - present
Technische Universiteit Delft
Position
  • Professor (Assistant)

Publications

Publications (135)
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we link findings from a demographically representative discrete choice experiment (DCE) in eight European countries on the adoption of smart thermostats with an agent-based model (ABM) in a methodologi-cally consistent way. We employ the ABM to simulate the diffusion pattern of smart thermostats until 2030 and to examine the effects...
Article
Support schemes have been central to the expansion of renewable electricity globally and in the European Union. As technologies mature, individual member states may decide to phase out these policies. While previous research has shown that such policy changes affect investors’ decisions, we investigate how they affect pathways and electricity price...
Article
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Global climate agreements call for action and an integrated perspective on mobility, energy and overall consumption. Municipalities in dense, urban areas are challenged with facilitating this transition with limited space and energy resources, and with future uncertainties. One important aspect of the transition is the adoption of electric vehicles...
Article
Scholars increasingly propose distributive justice as a means to foster effective and fair outcomes in climate adaptation. To advance the discussion on its place in climate policy, it is desirable to be able to quantitatively assess the effects of different principles of distribution on the well-being of unequally vulnerable individuals and groups....
Article
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We propose a new approach for tracing value change. Value change may lead to a mismatch between current value priorities in society and the values for which technologies were designed in the past, such as energy technologies based on fossil fuels, which were developed when sustainability was not considered a very important value. Better anticipatin...
Article
In the next decade, transition researchers need to embrace perspectives, theories, and methods from the scientific field of psychology. An integrative research approach that covers the individual, group, and system level, executed in interdisciplinary research teams is necessary for more effective analysis and applications of sustainability transit...
Article
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This paper demonstrates an approach to assess, ex ante, the social acceptance of sustainable heating systems in city districts. More sustainable heating systems are required in city districts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, these systems may lack social acceptance as they often require significant adjustments to homes and may lead to a...
Chapter
This paper introduces EMLab-Consumer, an agent-based model developed in the H2020 project Cheetah, on energy efficiency of households. The model builds on the theory of planned behavior, a large European survey and a variety of choice models generated from the same survey. It studies adoption of a number of energy efficient appliances and heating s...
Chapter
Complex systems produce recognizable self-organized patterns across time. This conceptual paper consists of a systematic reflection on what kinds of archetypical patterns systems can show, and in what kinds of cases these patterns could occur. Agent-based models are used to exemplify each pattern. We present a classification of the breadth of typic...
Article
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Car-oriented transport infrastructure developments have had detrimental impacts on the public realm in terms of poor walkability and fractured leftover urban spaces. To build integrated transport infrastructure and public space systems with considering non-motorized travelers’ behavior, we present an integrated methodology incorporating an agent-ba...
Article
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The tools available to translate climate targets into abatement actions are mainly based on costs and technical feasibility. Options for greenhouse gas abatement span all sectors, all countries, and involve a huge variety of technologies. The reasons for abatement to be realized, or not, are diverse and complex. In particular, the political discuss...
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The German Energiewende is a deliberate transformation of an established industrial economy towards a nearly CO2-free energy system accompanied by a phase out of nuclear energy. Its governance requires knowledge on how to steer the transition from the existing status quo to the target situation (transformation knowledge). The energy system is, howe...
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This paper explores capability conflicts in the deployment of decentralised energy systems and identifies the affected population. These systems have positive societal impacts in terms of sustainability and consumer empowerment, but they are not accessible to all and their deployment may increase socio-economic inequalities. The societal impacts of...
Article
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The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a dramatic loss of lives worldwide, challenging the sustainability of our health care systems, threatening economic meltdown, and putting pressure on the mental health of individuals (due to social distancing and lock-down measures). The pandemic is also posing severe challenges to the scientific community, with sch...
Article
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Transparent, consistent accounting of climate-related energy targets is a fundamental building block to the architecture of international climate agreements. Many of these climate targets focus on the transition of the energy system which has led to the development of various energy transition scenarios. Now that fossil resources are being replaced...
Article
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Full decarbonisation of the electricity system is one of the key elements to limit global warming. As this transition takes place, the electricity system must maintain system adequacy and remain affordable to consumers. In liberalised electricity markets investors are seen as key actors driving this transition. Due to the intermittent character of...
Article
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Systems engineers are equipped to design complex networked systems such as infrastructures. A key goal is cost minimization over a vast solution space. However, finding a minimum‐cost system while comprehensively satisfying different stakeholders is challenging and lacks proper methodological support. Stakeholders often employ their own expert esti...
Article
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This paper aims to anticipate social acceptance issues related to the deployment of the smart electricity grid by identifying underlying value conflicts. The smart electricity grid is a key enabler of the energy transition. Its successful deployment is however jeopardized by social acceptance issues, such as concerns related to privacy and fairness...
Article
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Increasing the adoption of energy efficient technologies by households is one of the formulated strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents a systematic review of agent-based modelling studies on the adoption of energy efficiency by households. It starts with an overview of barriers for adoption, of energy efficiency policies...
Article
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The European Union considers demand response to be an integral part of its future energy vision, in particular as a supporting mechanism for renewable resource integration. To achieve high demand response participation, the European Union recognises the need for adequate financial incentives for all consumers, especially for residential and service...
Article
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Transition modelling is an emerging but growing niche within the broader field of sustainability transitions research. The objective of this paper is to explore the characteristics of this niche in relation to a range of existing modelling approaches and literatures with which it shares commonalities or from which it could draw. We distil a number...
Article
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For many years, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been discussed as a technology that may make a significant contribution to achieving major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. At present, however, only two large-scale power plants capture a total of 2.4 Mt CO2/a. Several reasons are identified for this mismatch between expectations and real...
Article
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This paper proposes an approach to capturing and reviewing scientific literature addressing latent topics across multiple scientific fields. As latent topics like moral values are affected by word polysemy and synonymy, a traditional keyword-based approach is often ineffective and therefore inappropriate. As a result, scientific literature addressi...
Chapter
Residential energy efficiency improvements often have a smaller effect than expected. Although there is agreement on the existence of this effect, called the rebound effect, there is no agreement on the size of the effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential of using serious games to assess this effect. We used a game in wh...
Article
We analyze the effectiveness of a forward capacity market (FCM) with long-term contracts in an electricity market in the presence of a growing share of renewable energy. An agent-based model is used for this analysis. Capacity markets can compensate for the deteriorating incentive to invest in controllable power plants when the share of variable re...
Article
As energy systems grow more complex, modeling efforts spanning multiple scales, disciplines and perspectives are essential. Improved methods are needed to guide the development of not just individual models, but also multi-model ecologies – systems of interacting models. Currently there is a lack of knowledge concerning how multi-model ecologies ca...
Article
We present an approach to simulate climate and energy policy for the EU, using a flexible and modular agent-based modelling approach and a toolbox, called the Energy Modelling Laboratory (EMLab). The paper shortly reviews core challenges and approaches for modelling climate and energy policy in light of the energy transition. Afterwards, we present...
Article
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The effectiveness of a capacity market is analyzed by simulating three conditions that may cause suboptimal investment in the electricity generation: imperfect information and uncertainty; declining demand shocks resulting in load loss; and a growing share of renewable energy sources in the generation portfolio. Implementation of a capacity market...
Article
Feedback devices can be used to inform households about their energy-consumption behavior. This may persuade them to practice energy conservation. The use of feedback devices can also—via word of mouth—spread among households and thereby support the spread of the incentivized behavior, e.g. energy-efficient heating behavior. This study investigates...
Article
Simulation modeling is useful to understand the mechanisms of the diffusion of innovations, which can be used for forecasting the future of innovations. This study aims to make the identification of such mechanisms less costly in time and labor. We present an approach that automates the generation of diffusion models by: (1) preprocessing of empiri...
Article
In order to attain a truly sustainable society it is necessary for people to make ‘the sustainable choice’ in daily life, business and governance. Instrumental in increasing the awareness and understanding about sustainability issues and improving people's behaviour regarding sustainability issues is sustainability education. However, sustainabilit...
Article
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The cross-border effects of a capacity market and a strategic reserve in interconnected electricity markets are modeled using an agent-based modeling methodology. Both capacity mechanisms improve the security of supply and reduce consumer costs. Our results indicate that interconnections do not affect the effectiveness of a capacity market, while a...
Article
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Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two factors...
Article
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To ensure sufficient investment in electricity generation capacity, mechanisms such as strategic reserves are being considered or already implemented. We analyze the effectiveness of a strategic reserve in the presence of a growing portfolio share of renewable energy sources (RES) with EMLab-Generation, an agent-based electricity market model. A st...
Article
Insulating existing buildings offers great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting Germany’s climate protection targets. Previous research suggests that, since homeowners’ decision-making processes are inadequately understood as yet, today’s incentives aiming at increasing insulation activity lead to unsatisfactory results. We d...
Article
A key factor to energy-efficiency of heating in buildings is the behavior of households, in particular how they ventilate rooms. Energy demand can be reduced by behavioral change; devices can support this by giving feedback to consumers on their behavior. One such feedback device, called the ‘CO2 meter’, shows indoor air-quality in the colors of a...
Article
The low prices in the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) have triggered discussions of various possible reforms. One option is to decouple the CO2 prices from renewable energy policy by adjusting the emission cap to renewable energy investment overshoots. We introduce two ways of reducing the CO2 cap in response to overshoots of renewable po...
Article
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The EU parliament has accepted a proposal of the EU commission on the backloading of EU emission allowances (EUA), where the auctioning of EUAs is postponed to future time periods. The EU commission has also proposed a market stability reserve (MSR), which is a quantity-based stabilisation policy that is aimed at controlling the volume of EUAs in c...
Article
A framework for the modeling and simulation of transitions is presented. A transition, “substantial change in the state of a socio-technical system”, typically unfolds over a long timespan. We therefore suggest to use simulation to inform transition managers on the effect of their decisions. Transition models preferably meet five functional require...
Article
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Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper shows h...
Article
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Climate change is likely to affect how society will function in this century. Because climate change effects may be severe, a next step is to study not only the effects on natural systems, but also the effects on built infrastructure systems and, in response to anticipated effects, the adaptation of those systems. Studies that discuss interconnecte...
Article
Network infrastructures, such as roads, pipelines or the power grid face a multitude of challenges, from organizational and use changes, to climate change and resource scarcity. These challenges require the adaptation of existing infrastructures or their complete new development. Traditionally, infrastructure planning and routing issues are solved...
Article
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The recent low CO2 prices in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) have triggered a discussion whether the EU ETS needs to be adjusted. We study the effects of CO2 price floors and a price ceiling on the dynamic investment pathway of two interlinked electricity markets (loosely based on Great Britain, which already has introduced a pr...
Article
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The buildings sector accounts for more than 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the well-known economic viability of many energy-efficient renovation measures which offer great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting climate protection targets, there is a relatively low level of implementation. We performed a citatio...
Conference Paper
In this paper we propose an agent-based modeling study to assess policy options towards technological interventions to energy consumption behavior, in particular products also known as ‘Transformational Products’. They are novel domestic heating energy efficiency enabling devices, designed to change heating behavior of their users. Innovative behav...
Article
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Sustainability policy in the early 2000s is based on and therefore influenced by scientific literature on ‘transition’. The importance of this link has inspired the authors to explore the structure of cooperating authors and citation networks in the field. In order to understand ‘transition’ literature, we compare it with an alternative term for ch...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Scientific fields do not spring forth fully-formed, but instead develop over time, with roots in older disciplines and changing under the influence of new ideas and theories. Some new ideas can be gently added to the old, while others prove to be totally incompatible and provoke a revolution leading to the fall or rise of entire scientific paradigm...
Article
To understand the consequences of the E.U. ban on incandescent lamps, an agent-based model is developed in which consumer behaviour regarding purchase of lamps is simulated. Consumers are modelled as having heterogeneous and dynamic preferences on lamps. Development of preferences depends on memory and perceptions, as well as interaction in a socia...
Article
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Infrastructures are critical for human society, but vulnerable to climate change. The current body of research on infrastructure adaptation does not adequately account for the interconnectedness of infrastructures, both internally and with one another. We take a step toward addressing this gap through the introduction of a framework for infrastruct...
Article
The recent low CO2 prices in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) have triggered a discussion whether the EU ETS needs to be adjusted in order to provide a sufficiently strong signal for investment in CO2 abatement. We study the effects of CO2 price floors and a price ceiling on the dynamic investment pathway of two interlinked elect...
Chapter
The electricity infrastructure is essential to the functioning of society. In this chapter we describe the way in which we have modelled this socio-technical system in order to analyse CO2 policy instruments, comparing the results of “no intervention” with those of implementing taxation and emissions trading to reduce CO2 emissions in the productio...
Article
In our energy-restricted world, planners and engineers have to cope with problems of CO 2 emissions and oil- and gas-shortages. Many planning activities not captured under the heading of "futures studies" share common goals like dealing with an uncertain, complex future. We focus on two novel approaches: agent-based modelling and serious games. The...
Chapter
Full-text available
Our world is a complex socio-technical system-of-systems (Chappin & Dijkema, 2007; Nikolic, 2009). Embedded within the geological, chemical and biological planetary context, the physical infrastructures, such as power grids or transport networks span the globe with energy and material flows. Social networks in the form of global commerce and the In...
Conference Paper
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Congestion management in liberalized power sectors is a complex multi-actor problem, where technical, economic, social, regula- tory, and political aspects all play a role. This paper presents a participa- tory simulation tool that can be used to evaluate congestion management mechanisms. It was developed to facilitate research related to strategic...
Conference Paper
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In order to support policy decisions, we have developed a modelling platform called AgentSpring, which facilitates the development of agent-based models in a modular and structured manner, using state- of-the-art IT development principles and tools. An attractive web-based interface allows for the interaction with policy makers. A model named d13n...
Conference Paper
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This work presents a management procedure for hydroelectric facilities with daily storage. The water storage gives an additional degree of freedom allowing to shift in time power production when it is more convenient and to work at the maximum efficiency of hydraulic turbine. The management is optimized by coupling two different approaches: Mixed I...
Conference Paper
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The energy transition is taking shape in the German and, to a lesser extent also its neighbouring electricity markets. We have proposed adaptations to an existing model to represent the increasing shares of intermittent renewables, that may alter the structure of the market and the viability of strategies of energy companies. The proposed model use...
Conference Paper
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The notion of transition receives noticeable attention in political as well as scientific arenas. In the policy arena in the Netherlands, significant results have not been achieved yet despite all the efforts on 'managing' the transition to a sustainable energy sector. Although the scientific literature on transitions contains publications from 25...