Emanuele Giorgi

Lancaster University | LU · Lancaster Medical School

Background Soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) is a parasitic infection that predominantly affects impoverished regions. Model-based geostatistics (MBG) has been established as a set of modern statistical methods that enable mapping of disease risk in a geographical area of interest. We investigate how the use of remotely sensed covariates can hel...

Background: Trachoma is the commonest infectious cause of blindness worldwide. Efforts are being made to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem globally. However, as prevalence decreases, it becomes more challenging to precisely predict prevalence. We demonstrate how model-based geostatistics (MBG) can be used as a reliable, efficient, and...

Cysticercosis is a neglected tropical disease caused by the larval stage of the zoonotic tapeworm (Taenia solium). While there is a clear spatial component in the occurrence of the parasite, no geostatistical analysis of active human cysticercosis has been conducted yet, nor has such an analysis been conducted for Sub-Saharan Africa, albeit relevan...

Introduction: Leptospirosis is a globally distributed zoonotic and environmentally mediated disease that has emerged as a major health problem in urban slums in developing countries. Its aetiological agent is bacteria of the genus Leptospira, which are mainly spread in the urine of infected rodents, especially in an environment where adequate sani...

Background Rapid determination of an individual’s antibody status can be beneficial in understanding an individual’s immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and for initiation of therapies that are only deemed effective in sero-negative individuals. Antibody lateral flow tests (LFTs) have potential to address this need as a rapid, point of care test. Method...

Background Declines in malaria burden in Uganda have slowed. Modelling predicts that indoor residual spraying (IRS) and mass drug administration (MDA), when co-timed, have synergistic impact. This study investigated additional protective impact of population-based MDA on malaria prevalence, if any, when added to IRS, as compared with IRS alone and...

Understanding the location of schools relative to the population they serve is important to contextualise the time, students must travel and to define school catchment areas (SCAs) for planning. We assembled a spatio-temporal database of public primary schools (PPS), population density of school-going children (SGC), and factors affecting travel in...

Background In line with movement restrictions and physical distancing essential for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO recommended postponement of all neglected tropical disease (NTD) control activities that involve community-based surveys, active case finding, and mass drug administration in April, 2020. Following revised guidance later in...

Although urban areas are diverse and urban inequities are well documented, surveys commonly differentiate intimate partner violence (IPV) rates only by urban versus rural residence. This study compared rates of current IPV victimization among women and men by urban residence (informal and formal settlements). Data from the 2014 Kenya Demographic an...

The geographical area around a health facility characterizing the population that utilizes some or all of its services-a health facility catchment area (HFCA)-, forms the fundamental basis of estimating reliable population denominator for disease mapping and routine healthcare planning. Consequently, the approaches used to delineate the catchment a...

School-based sampling has been used to inform targeted responses for malaria and neglected tropical diseases. Standard geostatistical methods for mapping disease prevalence use the school location to model spatial correlation, which is questionable since exposure to the disease is more likely to occur in the residential location. In this paper, w...

Background: Declines in malaria burden in Uganda have slowed. Modelling predicts that indoor residual spraying (IRS) and mass drug administration (MDA), when co-timed, have synergistic impact. This study investigated additional protective impact of population-based MDA on malaria prevalence, if any, when added to IRS, as compared with IRS alone and...

Background Impact evaluation of most water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions in health are user-centered. However, recent research discussed WASH herd protection – community WASH coverage could protect neighboring households. We evaluated the effect of water and sanitation used in the household and by household neighbors in children’s mo...

With the distribution of COVID-19 vaccinations across the globe and the limited access in many countries, quick determination of an individual's antibody status could be beneficial in allocating limited vaccine doses in low-and middle-income countries (LMIC). Antibody lateral flow tests (LFTs) have potential to address this need as a quick, point o...

Background: Declines in malaria burden in Uganda have slowed. Modelling predicts that indoor residual spraying (IRS) and mass drug administration (MDA), when co-timed, have synergistic impact. This study investigated additional protective impact of population-based MDA on malaria prevalence, if any, when added to IRS, as compared with IRS alone and...

Purpose Serology data are an increasingly important tool in malaria surveillance, especially in low transmission settings where the estimation of parasite-based indicators is often problematic. Existing methods rely on the use of thresholds to identify seropositive individuals and estimate transmission intensity, while making assumptions about the...

Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally since its emergence in 2019. Most SARS-CoV-2 infections generate immune responses leading to rising levels of immunoglobulins (Ig) M, A and G which can be detected using diagnostic tests including enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Whilst implying previous SARS-CoV-2 i...

The elimination of onchocerciasis through community-based Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of ivermectin (Mectizan) is hampered by co-endemicity of Loa loa , as individuals who are highly co-infected with Loa loa parasites can suffer serious and occasionally fatal neurological reactions from the drug. The test-and-not-treat strategy of testing all in...

Background In malaria serology analysis, the standard approach to obtain seroprevalence, i.e the proportion of seropositive individuals in a population, is based on a threshold which is used to classify individuals as seropositive or seronegative. The choice of this threshold is often arbitrary and is based on methods that ignore the age-dependency...

User-friendly interfaces have been increasingly used to facilitate the learning of advanced statistical methodology, especially for students with only minimal statistical training. In this paper, we illustrate the use of MBGapp for teaching geostatistical analysis to population health scientists. Using a case-study on Loa loa infections, we show ho...

Background Model-based geostatistical (MBG) methods have been extensively used to map malaria risk using community survey data in low-resource settings where disease registries are incomplete or non-existent. However, the wider adoption of MBG methods by national control programmes to inform health policy decisions is hindered by the lack of advanc...

Background As the prevalences of neglected tropical diseases reduce to low levels in some countries, policymakers require precise disease estimates to decide whether the set public health targets have been met. At low prevalence levels, traditional statistical methods produce imprecise estimates. More modern geospatial statistical methods can deliv...

World Health Organization goals against soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) are pointing towards seeking their elimination as a public health problem: reducing to less than 2% the proportion of moderate and heavy infections. Some regions are reaching WHO goals, but transmission could rebound if strategies are discontinued without an epidemiologica...

Background Monitoring malaria transmission is a critical component of efforts to achieve targets for elimination and eradication. Two commonly monitored metrics of transmission intensity are parasite prevalence (PR) and the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Comparing the spatial and temporal variations in the PR and EIR of a given geographical...

Slum residents are more vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. Without a specific treatment, vaccination became the main strategy against COVID-19. In this study, we determined the rate and factors associated with the willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19 among slum residents and their main reasons associated with the vaccine intention. The stu...

Defining an accurate, representative service catchment area is important for computing population denominators for disease mapping and efficient public planning, including health, education and social care. The growth in population settlement modelling techniques and provision of geocoded service databases has fuelled an increase in local and regi...

Background Individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop neutralising antibodies. We investigated the proportion of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies after infection and how this proportion varies with selected covariates. Methodology/Principal findings This systematic review and meta-analysis examined the proportion of individual...

This paper provides statistical guidance on the development and application of model-based geostatistical methods for disease prevalence mapping. We illustrate the different stages of the analysis, from exploratory analysis to spatial prediction of prevalence, through a case study on malaria mapping in Tanzania. Throughout the paper, we distinguish...

Maps of the geographical variation in prevalence play an important role in large-scale programmes for the control of Neglected Tropical Diseases. Pre-control mapping is needed to establish the appropriate control intervention in each area of the country in question. Mapping is also needed post-intervention to measure the success of control efforts....

Serology data are an increasingly important tool in malaria surveillance, especially in low transmission settings where the estimation of parasite-based indicators is often problematic. Existing methods rely on the use of thresholds to identify seropositive individuals and estimate transmission intensity, while making assumptions about the temporal...

Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally since its emergence in 2019. Most SARS-CoV-2 infections generate immune responses leading to rising levels of immunoglobulins (Ig) M, A and G which can be detected using diagnostic tests including enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Whilst implying previous SARS-CoV-2 i...

Background The diagnosis of lower urinary tract symptoms related to suspected bladder outflow obstruction from benign prostate hyperplasia/enlargement in men is increasing. This is leading to high demand on healthcare services; however, there is limited knowledge of differences in pharmacotherapy prescribing for this condition based on geography....

Current methods for the design and analysis of neglected tropical disease prevalence surveys largely rely on classical survey sampling ideas that treat prevalence data from different locations as an independent random sample from the probability distribution induced by a random sampling design. We set out an alternative, explicitly geospatial parad...

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide and is a major contributor to the number of emergency admissions in the UK. We introduce a modelling framework for the development of early warning systems for COPD emergency admissions. We analyse the number of COPD emergency admissions using a Poisson...

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitt...

Background: Difficulties in reliably diagnosing podoconiosis have severely limited the scale up and uptake of the World Health Organization-recommended morbidity management and disability prevention interventions for affected people. We aimed to identify a set of clinical features that, combined into an algorithm, allow for diagnosis of podoconiosi...

A key requirement in studies of endemic vector-borne or zoonotic disease is an estimate of the spatial variation in vector or reservoir host abundance. For many vector species, multiple indices of abundance are available, but current approaches to choosing between or combining these indices do not fully exploit the potential inferential benefits th...

A key requirement in studies of endemic vector-borne or zoonotic disease is an estimate of the spatial variation in vector or reservoir host abundance. For many vector species, multiple indices of abundance are available, but current approaches to choosing between or combining these indices do not fully exploit the potential inferential benefits th...

Introduction: Historically, leishmaniasis in Italy was constrained to Italian areas with Mediterranean climate. In the last 20 years, sand fly vectors (Phlebotomus perniciosus), cases of canine leishmaniasis (CanL) and cases of human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) have been observed in Northern Italian regions, traditionally classified as cold areas u...

[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.19.20135459v1] Healthcare services treating men with prostate conditions are increasingly burdened worldwide. One of the competing factors in this demand is increasing diagnosis and treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms in men, much of which is suspected bladder outflow obstruction secondary to...

Global malaria burden is reducing with effective control interventions, and surveillance is vital to maintain progress. Health management information system (HMIS) data provide a powerful surveillance tool; however, its estimates of burden need to be better understood for effectiveness. We aimed to investigate the relationship between HMIS and coho...

Background and Aims There are uncertainties about the epidemic patterns of hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection and its contribution to the burden of liver disease. We estimated the global prevalence of HDV infection and explored its contribution to the development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among hepatitis B surface antigen (...

Background Life expectancy at birth (LEB), one of the main indicators of human longevity, has often been used to characterise the health status of a population. Understanding its relationships with the deprivation is key to develop policies and evaluate interventions that are aimed at reducing health inequalities. However, methodological challenge...

Introduction The decision-making process for malaria control and elimination strategies has become more challenging. Interventions need to be targeted at council level to allow for changing malaria epidemiology and an increase in the number of possible interventions. Models of malaria dynamics can support this process by simulating potential impact...

Diagnosis is often based on the exceedance or not of continuous health indicators of a predefined cut-off value, so as to classify patients into positives and negatives for the disease under investigation. In this paper, we investigate the effects of dichotomization of spatially-referenced continuous outcome variables on geostatistical inference. A...

Diagnosis is often based on the exceedance or not of continuous health indicators of a predefined cut-off value, so as to classify patients into positives and negatives for the disease under investigation. In this paper, we investigate the effects of dichotomization of spatially-referenced continuous outcome variables on geostatistical inference. A...

As neglected tropical diseases approach elimination status, there is a need to develop efficient sampling strategies for confirmation (or not) that elimination criteria have been met. This is an inherently difficult task because the relative precision of a prevalence estimate deteriorates as prevalence decreases, and classic survey sampling strateg...

In species richness studies, citizen-science surveys where participants make individual decisions regarding sampling strategies provide a cost-effective approach to collect a large amount of data. However, it is unclear to what extent the bias inherent to opportunistically collected samples may invalidate our inferences. Here, we compare spatial pr...

One of the tenets of geostatistical modelling is that close things in space are more similar than distant things, a principle also known as ‘‘the first law of geography’’. However, this may be questionable when unmeasured covariates affect, not only the mean of the underlying process, but also its covariance structure. In this paper we go beyond th...

Lack of disease surveillance in small companion animals worldwide has contributed to a deficit in our ability to detect and respond to outbreaks. In this paper we describe the first real-time syndromic surveillance system that conducts integrated spatio-temporal analysis of data from a national network of veterinary premises for the early detection...

Background: Heroin smokers have high rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), respiratory morbidity, hospital admission and mortality. We assessed the natural history of symptoms and lung function in this population over time. Methods: A cohort of heroin smokers with COPD was followed for 18-24 months. At baseline and follow-up, re...

Over the last decade, increased access to official prescription records has provided a wealth of opportunities for the application of advanced statistical methodology in order to better inform public health policies. In this talk, our interest is on modelling the spatial and temporal variation in the prescriptions for the treatment of Benign Prosta...

Multiple diagnostic tests are often used due to limited resources or because they provide complementary information on the epidemiology of a disease under investigation. Existing statistical methods to combine prevalence data from multiple diagnostics ignore the potential over‐dispersion induced by the spatial correlations in the data. To address t...

Kernel methods are a popular technique for extending linear models to handle non-linear spatial problems via a mapping to an implicit, high-dimensional feature space. While kernel methods are computationally cheaper than an explicit feature mapping, they are still subject to cubic cost on the number of points. Given only a few thousand locations, t...

In this paper, we develop a computationally efficient discrete approximation to log‐Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) models for the analysis of spatially aggregated disease count data. Our approach overcomes an inherent limitation of spatial models based on Markov structures, namely, that each such model is tied to a specific partition of the study area...

Background: The prevalence of malaria infection in time and space provides important information on the likely sub-national epidemiology of malaria burdens and how this has changed following intervention. Model-based geostatitics (MBG) allow national malaria control programmes to leverage multiple data sources to provide predictions of malaria prev...

Background Whilst previous work has identified clustering of the active trachoma sign “trachomatous inflammation—follicular” (TF), there is limited understanding of the spatial structure of trachomatous trichiasis (TT), the rarer, end-stage, blinding form of disease. Here we use community-level TF prevalence, information on access to water and sani...

Background: The prevalence of malaria infection in time and space provides important information on the likely sub-national epidemiology of malaria burdens and how this has changed following intervention. Model-based geostatitics (MBG) allow national malaria control programmes to leverage multiple data sources to provide predictions of malaria prev...