Emanuel Dutra

Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera | IPMA

We report on the first multi-year kilometre-scale global coupled simulations using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) coupled to both the NEMO and FESOM ocean–sea ice models, as part of the H2020 Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems (nextGEMS) project. We focus mainly on an unprecedented IFS-FESOM coupled setup, with an atmospheric reso...

The Amazon basin plays a crucial role in the global hydrological cycle and the climate system. Removal of latent heat from the surface covered by the tropical forest through evapotranspiration is a key process that still requires further research due to the complex nature of the involved processes, lack of observations and different model assumptio...

Summer heatwaves are becoming increasingly dangerous over Europe, and their close monitoring is essential for human activities. Typically, they are monitored using the 2 m temperature from meteorological weather stations or reanalysis datasets. In this study, the 2022 extremely warm summer over Europe is analysed using satellite land surface temper...

We report on the first multi-year km-scale global coupled simulations using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) coupled to both the NEMO and FESOM ocean-sea ice models, as part of the H2020 Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems (nextGEMS) project. We focus mainly on the two unprecedented IFS-FESOM coupled setups, with an atmospheric resol...

The downward surface longwave flux (DSLF) plays a relevant role in the Earth’s surface radiative budget, which is crucial to monitor, understand and model the impact of changes at local and global scales on surface temperature and surface conditions. This study focuses on the evaluation and intercomparison of four DSLF products: (a) a recently deve...

Surface net radiation (SNR) is a vital input for many land surface and hydrological models. However, most of the current remote sensing datasets of SNR come mostly at coarse resolutions or have large gaps due to cloud cover that hinder their use as input in models. Here, we present a downscaled and continuous daily SNR product across Europe for 201...

In weather forecasting and climate monitoring, daily maximum and minimum air temperatures (TMAX and TMIN) are fundamental for operational and research purposes, from early warning of extreme events to climate change studies. This study provides an integrated evaluation of TMAX and TMIN from two European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (EC...

The exchange of energy and water fluxes between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere is crucial to a series of processes that impact human life. Noteworthy examples are agriculture yields, water availability, intensity and extent of droughts and the ability of ecosystems to provide services to society. The relevance of these processes has motivat...

A machine learning approach based on multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is explored to integrate reanalysis data, satellite cloud information and ground observations of Downward Surface Long-wave Radiation Fluxes (DSLF), to estimate hourly DSLF for all-sky conditions. The MARS estimates are shown to have lower errors than other models...

On going work towards the assessment of daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts produced separatly by ERA5 reanalysis and the ECMWF global model (IFS).

Development of a machine learning model that uses multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) combined with reanalysis and satellite data to estimate downward surface long-wave fluxes. Model evaluation against observations and other products for operation purposes in the MSG-disk.

Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Surface Net Radiation (SNR) are vital inputs for many land surface and hydrological models. However, current remote sensing datasets of these variables come mostly at coarse resolutions. Although high-resolution LST and SNR retrievals are available, they have large gaps due to cloud-cover that hinder their use as...

Cities concentrate people, wealth, emissions, and infrastructure, thus representing a challenge and an opportunity for climate change mitigation and adaptation. This urgently demands for accurate urban climate projections to help organizations and individuals to make climate-smart decisions. However, most of the large ensembles of global and region...

The Antarctic plateau, characterized by cold and dry weather conditions with very little precipitation, is mostly covered by snow at the surface. This paper describes an intercomparison of snow models, of varying complexity, used for numerical weather prediction or academic research. The results of offline numerical simulations, carried out during...

Climate change is expected to have impacts on the balance of global food trade networks and food security. Thus, seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature are an essential tool for stakeholders to make timely choices regarding the strategies required to maximize their expected cereal yield outcomes. The availability of state-of-the-art se...

The estimation of downward long-wave radiation (DLR) at the surface is very important for the understanding of the Earth’s radiative budget with implications in surface–atmosphere exchanges, climate variability, and global warming. Theoretical radiative transfer and observationally based studies identify the crucial role of clouds in modulating the...

Cities concentrate people, wealth, emissions, and infrastructures, thus representing a challenge and an opportunity for climate change mitigation and adaptation. This places an urgent demand for accurate urban climate projections to help organizations and individuals making climate smart-decisions. However, most of the state-of-the-art global and r...

The Antarctic Plateau, characterized by cold and dry weather conditions with very little precipitation, is mostly covered by snow at the surface. This paper describes an intercomparison of snow models, of varying complexity, used for numerical weather prediction or academic research. The results of offline numerical simulations, carried out during...

Review and update of the current LSA-SAF algorithm for the estimation of downward long-wave radiation (DLR) at surface. improvement of DLR estimations using a machine learning algorithm with multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) combined with ERA5 data, ground measurements and cloud information from the MSG satellite. Benchmarking and val...

We present Multi-Source Weather (MSWX), a seamless global gridded near-surface meteorological product featuring a high 3-hourly 0.1° resolution, near real-time updates (~3-hour latency), and bias-corrected medium-range (up to 10 days) and long-range (up to 7 months) forecast ensembles. The product includes ten meteorological variables: precipitatio...

This study investigates linear trends, variability and predictive skill of the upper ocean heat content (OHC) in the North Atlantic basin. This is a region where strong decadal variability superimposes the externally forced trends, introducing important differences in the local warming rates and leading in the case of the Central Subpolar North Atl...

Framed within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Commission, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing an enhanced global dataset for the land component of the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5), hereafter referred to as ERA5-Land. Once completed, the period covered will span fr...

In this study, we show that limitations in the representation of land cover and vegetation seasonality in the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model are partially responsible for large biases (up to ∼10°C, either positive or negative depending on the region) on the simulated daily maximum land surface temperature (LST) w...

The land-surface developments of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are based on the Carbon-Hydrology Tiled Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (CHTESSEL) and form an integral part of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), supporting a wide range of global weather, climate and environmental applications. In order to...

Subseasonal forecasts lie between medium-range and seasonal time scales with an emerging attention due to the relevance in society and by the scientific challenges involved. This study aims to (i) evaluate the development of systematic errors with lead time in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts of surf...

The land-surface developments of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are based on the Carbon-Hydrology Tiled Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (CHTESSEL) and form an integral part of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), supporting a wide range of global weather, climate and environmental applications. In order to...

Framed within the Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Commission, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing an enhanced global dataset for the land component of the 5th generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5), hereafter named as ERA5-Land. Once completed, the period covered will span from 1950 to pre...

This study investigates trends, variability and predictive skill of the upper ocean heat content (OHC) in the North Atlantic basin. This is a region where strong decadal variability superimposes the externally forced trends, introducing important differences in the local warming rates, and leading in the case of the Central Subpolar North Atlantic...

In this paper, we present and evaluate the skill of an EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project – Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully simulating past global mean surface temperature variations at interannual and decadal forecast times as well as the local surface t...

The 30-year simulations of seasonal snow cover in 22 physically based models driven with bias-corrected meteorological reanalyses are examined at four sites with long records of snow observations. Annual snow cover durations differ widely between models, but interannual variations are strongly correlated because of the common driving data. No signi...

The surface-atmosphere turbulent exchanges couple the water, energy and carbon budgets in the Earth system. The biosphere plays an important role in the evaporation process, and vegetation related parameters such as the leaf area index (LAI), vertical root distribution and stomatal resistance are poorly constrained due to sparse observations at the...

During the summer months, the northeasterly trade winds impinging on Madeira Island lead to the establishment of a quasi‐permanent wind pattern with two tip jets emerging near the western and eastern island tips. These jets respond to subtle changes of the upstream flow with an amplified signal, and a high‐resolution simulation of the regional atmo...

In this paper we present and evaluate the skill of the EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project - Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully simulating past global mean surface temperature variations at interannual and decadal forecast times as well as the local surface t...

Twenty-seven models participated in the Earth System Model - Snow Model Intercomparison Project (ESM-SnowMIP), the most data-rich MIP dedicated to snow modelling. Our findings do not support the hypothesis advanced by previous snow MIPs: evaluating models against more variables, and providing evaluation datasets extended temporally and spatially do...

Earth observations were used to evaluate the representation of land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation coverage over Iberia in two state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs) – the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Carbon-Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (CHTESSEL) and the Météo-France Inte...

LDAS-Monde is a global offline land data assimilation system (LDAS) that jointly assimilates satellite-derived observations of surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) into the ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere) land surface model (LSM). This study demonstrates that LDAS-Monde is able to detect, monitor and foreca...

Thirty-year simulations of seasonal snow cover in 22 physically based models driven with bias-corrected meteorological reanalyses are examined at four sites with long records of snow observations. Annual snow cover durations differ widely between models but interannual variations are strongly correlated because of the common driving data. No signif...

Future climate projections require Earth system models to simulate conditions outside their calibration range. It is therefore crucial to understand the applicability of such models and their modules under transient conditions. This study assesses the robustness of different types of models in terms of rainfall-runoff modelling under changing condi...

Overview of the use of remote sensing LST in evaluating a climate model (ec-earth) and the role of vegetation

Abstract In this study we derive the environmental lapse rate (ELR) from vertical profiles of temperature in the lower troposphere, applying it to downscale air temperature of the new European Centre For Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis ERA5, which replaces ERA‐Interim (ERAI). We focus over the western U.S. region, a data‐rich area...

EGU 2020 presentation

A large fraction of extreme precipitation and flood events across western Europe are triggered by atmospheric rivers (ARs). The association between ARs and extreme precipitation days over the Iberian Peninsula has been well documented for western river basins. Since ARs are often associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their m...

Earth observations were used to evaluate the representation of land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation coverage over Iberia in two state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs) – the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Carbon-Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (CHTESSEL) and the Météo-France Inte...

Snow cover properties have a large impact on the partitioning of surface energy fluxes and thereby on near-surface weather parameters. Snow schemes of intermediate complexity have been widely used for hydrological and climate studies, whereas their impact on typical weather forecast time-scales has received less attention. A new multi-layer snow sc...

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key variable in surface-atmosphere energy and water exchanges. The main goals of this study are to (i) evaluate the LST of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses over Iberian Peninsula using the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SA...

Predicting extreme events is one of the major challenges of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting due to the high human and financial cost of such disasters. S2S forecasts of high-impact events should help with mitigating actions and putting contingency plans into place. This chapter discusses the S2S prediction of two categories of extreme ev...

This study demonstrates that LDAS-Monde, a global and offline Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS), that integrates satellite Earth observations into the ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere) Land Surface Model (LSM), is able to detect, monitor and forecast the impact of extreme weather on land surface states. LDAS-Monde jointly...

It is now clear that a large fraction of extreme precipitation and flood events across Western Europe are triggered by Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The association between ARs and extreme precipitation days over the Iberian Peninsula has been well documented for western river basins. Since ARs are often associated with high impact weather, it is impor...

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key variable in surface-atmosphere energy and water exchanges. The main goals of this study are to (i) evaluate the LST of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses over Iberian Peninsula using the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SA...

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) region, often referred to as the Third Pole, is the world's highest plateau and exerts a considerable influence on regional and global climate. The state of the snowpack over the TP is a major research focus due to its great impact on the headwaters of a dozen major Asian rivers. While many studies have attempted to validat...

This study demonstrates LDAS-Monde, global and offline integration of satellite Earth observations in the ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere) Land Surface Model (LSM), great potential to detect, monitor and forecast the impact of extremes weather on land surface conditions. LDAS-Monde jointly assimilates Earth observations of s...

The authors wish to make the following corrections to this paper [...]

This study focuses on the Iberian Peninsula and investigates the propagation of precipitation uncertainty, and its interaction with hydrologic modeling, in global water resource reanalysis. Analysis is based on ensemble hydrologic simulations for a period spanning 11 years (2000–2010). To simulate the hydrological variables of surface runoff, subsu...

In this study we assess the impact of sequential data assimilation of in-situ snow depth in the ECMWF land-surface model using optimal interpolation analysis. Each day the model background is used as first guess and merged with in-situ observations of snow depth via optimal interpolation creating analysis. These analysis are then used directly to i...

The surface skin temperature (SKT) is a key variable in surface-atmosphere energy exchanges. The first goal of this work is to evaluate the SKT from two ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-Interim and ERA5) against satellite-based Land Surface Temperature (LST) retrieved by the LSA-SAF.