Ely Karmon

Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya | IDC · ICT

In this conversation on the future of the Middle East after the Islamic State (IS), we bring together experts to debate the prospects for reconstruction and governance in IS-held territory, the future of the Jihadi movement, how to mitigate against the return of IS fighters, and the future regional security framework. We ask the experts what policy...

Since the beginning of 2017, a string of jihadist terrorist attacks involved Central Asian citizens, mainly of Uzbek and Kirgiz origin, notably in Turkey, Russia and Sweden. Another element, which should not be underestimated, are the Uighur jihadists, original from the Xinjiang Region in China. The final demise of the Islamic State, the disappeara...

Iran has a central and controversial role in Middle East politics. It is on the one hand one of the intervening actors in the conflicts of the zone and on the other it suffers from terrorism in its territory, in the Baluchistan and Iranian Kurdistan as well as from ISIS. It is to be foreseen an increase of the terrorist activity of this group in th...

Irán tiene un papel central y controvertido en la política de Oriente Medio. Es por una parte uno de los actores intervinientes en los conflictos de la zona y por otra experimenta el terrorismo en su territorio, en el Beluchistán y el Kurdistán iraní así como por parte del ISIS. Es de prever un incremento de la actividad terrorista de este grupo en...

The article focuses on the ideological shift in the Houthi movement that not only transformed it to a strategic ally of the Tehran Islamist revolutionary regime, but to a sectarian member of the Iranian Shi'ite axis.

Saudi Arabia seems to be at its lowest point in the regional and sectarian conflict with its arch-enemy Iran, one of the main winners of the situation on the ground in Syria. It is difficult to envision an effective renewal of Saudi support to the weakened Syrian opposition in case the cease-fire brokered by Russia and Turkey collapses, as the main...

It is time the international community understands that the policy of the Iranian government is a whole: combining the export of its radical Islamist revolution, nuclearization, aggressive interference in the internal affairs of Arab and Muslim states, and sophisticated use of international terrorism in order to achieve its strategic goal to become...

As the two coalitions against ISIS, the one led by the United States (is it indeed a coalition?) and the other one led by Russia and Iran, are close to defeat the organization on its territorial basis in Iraq and Syria and conquer the two major stronghold cities, Mosul and Raqqa, politicians, military experts and academic pundits are asking themsel...

Concerned by regional developments, Iran is buttressing its strategic alliances. Israel should take note

In our June 14, 2016 paper ,"Jabhat al-Nusra at Crossroads," a backgrounder for the Herzliya Conference Simulation: The Middle East after the Territorial Demise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, we evaluated that on the backdrop of the Russian involvement in Syria, the negotiations for a solution to the Syrian conflict, the threat of cooperat...

On the background of the Russian involvement in Syria, the peace process in Syria, and the military blows that ISIS suffered in Syria and Iraq, Jabhat al Nusra has to choose between opposing options.

Through Syria, Russia is advancing in the Middle East.

Moscow’s alliance with Iran, Hezbollah and possibly Iraq threatens strategic Israeli interests

As Islamic State expands its reach, Israel could again become a top priority

The nuclear agreement achieved on July 14, 2015 by Iran with the world's major powers will enable Iran and its proxy Hezbollah to use subversion and terrorism in the region and beyond with greater freedom, multiplied resources and enhanced aggressiveness.

Australia is not new to the threat of jihadi terrorism, but the 15-16 December 2014 hostage crisis staged by Man Haron Monis in Sydney shook the Australian people and was followed live across the world. Previous and recent arrests of young would-be Australian jihadists preparing terrorist attacks have only emphasised the growing threat of Islamic S...

The Islamic State under the leadership of Abu Bakr al–Baghdadi and al-Qaeda under the leadership of Ayman al-Zawahiri are competing for the hearts and minds of jihadists worldwide but also for territorial control in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia. Three examples, referring to France, Yemen and Nigeria respectively, illustrate this struggl...

President Hassan Rouhani’s government has changed the style but not the basic goals of Iran’s foreign policy in Latin America: to secure alliances with the continent’s states, using the already strong anti-U.S. ALBA regimes, to mitigate its international isolation and circumvent the biting economic sanctions and in the process to hurt America’s int...

Against the backdrop of Iran’s external and internal woes the United States and its allies should not compromise in the vital nuclear negotiations or accept Tehran’s proposals to help in the fight against ISIL.

A pesar del cambio en el poder en Teherán, el objetivo de la República Islámica sigue siendo el establecimiento de alianzas con los regímenes fuertemente contestatarios del ALBA, a fin de mitigar el aislamiento internacional iraní.

The best alternative would be for the Palestinian Authority, with Egyptian support, to retake control of Gaza

After the deadly chemical attack in Ghouta, last August 2013, the Syrian government agreed to destroy all of its chemical weapons. Even though by April 2014, 92,5% of Syria's chemical arsenal had been destroyed and as Syria approaches the end of the chemical arms removal program, the world has witnessed a sudden resurgence of chemical strikes, with...

Although most of Boko Haram's terrorist activity is focused, for the moment, on Nigerian territory, this Research Note argues that it is already an important international jihadist organisation. watershed that marks Boko Haram's passage from a purely Nigerian phenomenon to an international jihadist actor is its attack on the United Nations Headquar...

The controversial Geneva deal brought to the fore the linkage between Israel's peace negotiations with the Palestinians and Teheran's nuclear project. If in the past U.S and European leaders claimed the lack of progress in the Israeli -Palestinian peace negotiations is the stumbling block in advancing the undoing of the Iranian nuclear project, rec...

is Research Note analyses Hamas's standing aer it deserted the "Axis of Resistance" and Damascus, positioning itself in the Sunni coalition against the Assad regime in Syria. e unful$lled promises of the short Muslim Brotherhood reign in Egypt and the enmity of the new military regime in Cairo have seriously hurt Hamas's political, economic and...

This paper tries to present a cautious evaluation of the ongoing uprisings against the various authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and North Africa, in countries so different as Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain, Yemen, Syria or Libya. It is noting the fact that millions of young participants in the uprisings are not organized politically, real secul...

This article updates the findings of the author’s earlier contribution, ‘‘Iran Challenges the United States in Its Backyard, in Latin America,’’ which appeared in American Foreign Policy Interests 32, no. 5, by presenting additional evidence that the extensive Iranian and Hezbollah presence and activity in the region are intensifying. The result is...

During the last thirty years, terrorism, has become a strategic threat. Actually it was already a strategic threat, in the seventies and in the eighties, but only after 09.11 did most countries, including the great powers, e.g. the United States, Russia and even China accept this. Terrorism is a weapon of warfare and has strategic implications; tod...

Whether or not President Ahmadinejad of Iran has been successful in implementing his strategy of forming alliances with the leaders of certain countries of Latin America in the backyard of the United States can be adduced from this article, which examines the state of such relationships in a comprehensive way.

This paper gives a short comprehensive overview of Pakistan's historical role in the emergence, development and radicalization of jihadist movements since the 1980s. India, as well as faraway states like the US and the UK, has suffered from this jihadist phenomenon. Since the early 1990s, China, one of Pakistan's major neighbors and friends, has no...

El texto ofrece un análisis de actitudes históricas anti-hegemónicas e la actual postura política del presidente de Irã, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, sobre de la formación de un bloque anti-imperialista, a través de una alianza entre el Islam y los grupos políticos de la izquierda. Analiza las relaciones entre Irán y Latinoamérica y el posible apoyo que Ah...

Hace poco más de un año, el autor de este Assessment consideraba la aceptación por Israel de la hudna o tahidyah (alto el fuego temporal) como una victoria para Hamás y sus aliados: la organización sería considerada por la población palestina como el principal elemento en la lucha nacional, recibiría legitimación internacional, establecería su prop...

The only vital and effective axis in the region is that between Tehran and Damascus. They are the two capitals which enjoy a degree of strength and a measure of independence that allows them to remain unaffected by direct political pressure." Hizballah Voice of the Oppressed (radio station), 27 April 1991. The "Axis of Destabilization" in the Middl...

This article was originally written in 2002 by the late Israeli scholar Ehud Sprinzak in collaboration with Ely Karmon. Prof. Sprinzak succumbed to cancer on November 8, 2002 at the age of 62.[2] The book was forthcoming for a long time by RAND Publications under the title "Israeli Citrus and Palestinian Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons" in t...

This essay analyzes the correlation between antisemitism and the use of terrorism against Jewish communities and individuals worldwide. 1 It identifies the anti-Zionist and anti-Israel ideology and strategy of radical Islamist, as well as some ultra-leftist, ultra-rightist and anti-globalization groups, as the pretext for their murderous actions ag...

Le coalizioni basate sull'antisemitismo negli anni '70-'80. Pregiudizi razzisti e antisemiti furono elementi influenti nell'indurre alcuni capi terroristi di entrambe le estremità dello spettro politico europeo – la sinistra radicale e la destra radicale – ad abbracciare una politica di collaborazione con le organizzazioni palestinesi e/o ad effett...

L’existence de deux tendances islamistes concurrentes au sein du monde musulman—le modèle chi’ite révolutionnaire iranien opposé au modèle sunnite radical wahhabite ou salafiste—est un facteur déterminant dans la stratégie des nombreux groupes terroristes agissant au Moyen-Orient. Ceci est illustré par le conflit ouvert opposant groupes chi’ites et...

The war in Iraq has produced a tremendous change in the Middle East and in the Muslim world at large. For the first time in history, an Arab country is controlled by the Shi'a. The West does not grasp yet the full meaning of the Shi'a revival and the potential for deep change in many of the countries in the region and their regimes where Shiites re...

El presente trabajo brinda un detallado análisis de los hechos recientes de las actividades terroristas de Al -Qaeda en Oriente Medio. Es parte de un documento escrito originalmente para un proyecto y conferencia sobre “Después de la Guerra de Irak: Cambios Políticos y Estratégicos en Europa y Oriente Medio”, copatrocinado por el Centro GLORIA y el...

This article provides a detailed analysis of developments of the terrorist activities of al-Qa'ida in the Middle East after the occupation of Iraq by the allied forces in 2003

This book is based on a doctoral thesis submitted to the Department of Political Science at Haifa University, Israel. The theoretical framework describes conditions that favor the formation of coalitions between international terrorist organizations, and how they function within the changing international system. These theories are tested against e...

This article analyzes the role of intelligence in the intricate fight against international terrorism at the beginning of the 21st century. First, it considers the main trends of terrorism in the decade of the 1990s, what were the changes in the mode of action by the various organizations and how the intelligence services dealt with these challenge...

From 1996 to 1999, Hamas used suicide bombings and then relative restraint in order to derail the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. In recent years, although Hamas has desired to perpetrate more terrorist attacks, its capabilities have been limited by stepped up security operations and coordination by Israel and the Palestinian Authority. What wil...

This article focuses on Islamic terrorism in the framework of overall Islamic activity in Turkey. It argues that Islamic terrorist organizations active in Turkey during the 1990s strived to establish an Islamic shari ’a‐based state on the Iranian example, profited from deeper social and political trends in Turkish society and, at the same time, str...

The October 23, 2006 failed explosive operation in Caracas On October 23, 2006, the Baruta Municipality police found two explosive devices near the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, Venezuela. One of the bombs was found in a box containing leaflets making reference to the Lebanese radical Islamic group Hezbollah. The local television news network, Globovisi...

Aspenia, November 2007 "If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the arms Israel has in possession, the strategy of colonialism would face a stalemate because application of an atomic bomb would not leave any thing in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world." These were the words of the Iranian "...