Ella Gilbert

British Antarctic Survey | BAS

We calculate a regional surface “melt potential” index (MPI) over Antarctic ice shelves that describes the frequency (MPI-freq, %) and intensity (MPI-int, K) of daily maximum summer temperatures exceeding a melt threshold of 273.15 K. This is used to determine which ice shelves are vulnerable to melt-induced hydrofracture and is calculated using ne...

Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios suggest large differences in cumulative 21st-century surface melting. So f...

Following collapses of the neighboring Larsen A and B ice shelves, Larsen C has become a focus of increased attention. Determining how the prevailing meteorological conditions influence its surface melt regime is of paramount importance for understanding the dominant processes causing melt and ultimately for predicting its future. To this end, a ne...

Quantifying the relative importance of the atmospheric drivers of surface melting on the Larsen C ice shelf is critical in the context of recent and future climate change. Here, we present analysis of a new multidecadal, high‐resolution model hindcast using the Met Office Unified Model, described in Part 1 of this study. We evaluate the contributio...

Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing, and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios suggest large differences in cumulative 21st century surface melting. So...

A foehn event on 27 January 2011 over the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS), Antarctic Peninsula and its interaction with an exisiting ground‐based cold‐air pool is simulated using the MetUM atmospheric model at kilometre and sub‐kilometre scale grid spacing. Atmospheric model simulations at kilometre grid scales are an important tool for understanding the...

The future surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctic ice shelves has not been constrained with models of sufficient resolution and complexity. Here, we force the high‐resolution Modèle Atmosphérique Régional with future simulations from four CMIP models to evaluate the likely effects on the SMB of warming of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C above pre‐industrial t...

Recent ice shelf retreat on the east coast of the Antarctic Peninsula has been principally attributed to atmospherically driven melt. However, previous studies on the largest of these ice shelves—Larsen C—have struggled to reconcile atmospheric forcing with observed melt. This study provides the first comprehensive quantification and explanation of...

Surface melting on Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves can influence ice shelf mass balance, and consequently sea level rise. We show that summertime cloud phase on the Larsen C ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula strongly influences the amount of radiation received at the surface and can determine whether or not melting occurs. While previous work ha...

The occurrence of surface melt in Antarctica has hitherto been associated with the austral summer season, when the dominant source of melt energy is provided by solar radiation. We use in‐situ and satellite observations from a previously unsurveyed region to show that events of intense surface melt on Larsen C Ice Shelf occur frequently throughout...