- SourceAvailable from: Elizabeth A. Saltmarsh[Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: The corrective maintenance process can be decomposed into failure and repair processes. Creating a model to capture the corrective maintenance process then requires an accurate estimate of the behavior of these constituent processes. For systems composed of many individual parts, information about failure and repair behavior is more likely to be available at the component level than the system level. Depending on the number of components that comprise the system, modeling each part may become computationally burdensome; in addition, some few components may account for a large portion of the overall system failures.In such a situation, one solution to the modeling burden is aggregation: the mathematical assimilation of many component distributions into a single representative distribution for the group. This paper describes how aggregation may be performed for such a system and how an algorithm may be developed to automate the process. Next, it describes how to simulate an aggregated distribution using a pseudo-random number generator and finally demonstrates these concepts for a sample problem. The first section of the paper introduces corrective maintenance modeling and aggregation; the second section describes aggregation for corrective maintenance; the third explains how to simulate the aggregated distribution; the fourth demonstrates aggregation; and the fifth discusses limitations of the method and concludes.
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ABSTRACT: An important consideration in safety analysis and accident prevention is the identification of and response to accident precursors. These off-nominal events are opportunities to recognize potential accident pathogens, identify overlooked accident sequences, and make technical and organizational decisions to address them before further escalation can occur. When handled properly, the identification of precursors provides an opportunity to interrupt an accident sequence from unfolding; when ignored or missed, precursors may only provide tragic proof after the fact that an accident was preventable.