Elizabeth A Fulton

Elizabeth A Fulton
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation | CSIRO · Division of Marine and Atmospheric Research

PhD UTAS - On ecosystem model

About

316
Publications
116,912
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Introduction
Beth Fulton currently works at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) - Oceans and Atmosphere. Beth works in Applied Mathematics, Ecology and Marine Biology on issues to do with Ecosystems and Sustainability. Their current project is 'Modelling socioecological thresholds: predicting a safe and just operating space for humanity in the global ocean'.

Publications

Publications (316)
Article
Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integr...
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Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food produ...
Article
Evidence-informed decision-making is in increasing demand given growing pressures on marine environments. A way to facilitate this is by knowledge exchange among marine scientists and decision-makers. While many barriers are reported in the literature, there are also examples whereby research has successfully informed marine decision-making (i.e.,...
Article
Climate change, overexploitation, pollution, and other pressures continue to degrade and threaten the marine environment and associated systems. Successfully managing and governing marine socioecological systems in light of these compounding pressures requires approaches that move beyond reactive and business-as-usual responses. Specifically, achie...
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Humans have relied on coastal resources for centuries. However, current growth in population and increased accessibility of coastal resources through technology have resulted in overcrowded and often conflicted spaces. The recent global move towards development of national blue economy strategies further highlights the increased focus on coastal re...
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Food from the sea can make a larger contribution to healthy and sustainable diets, and to addressing hunger and malnutrition, through improvements in production, distribution and equitable access to wild harvest and mariculture resources and products. The supply and consumption of seafood is influenced by a range of ‘drivers’ including ecosystem ch...
Article
Models help decision-makers anticipate the consequences of policies for ecosystems and people; for instance, improving our ability to represent interactions between human activities and ecological systems is essential to identify pathways to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. However, use of modeling outputs in decision-making remains unc...
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Ecosystem‐based fisheries management aims to ensure ecologically sustainable fishing while maximising socio‐economic benefits. Achieving this goal for mixed fisheries requires better understanding of the effects of competing fishing fleets on shared resources and economic performance. Proposed management strategies that promote either specialisatio...
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Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models to engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared...
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Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth...
Article
The availability of colonizable substrate is an important driver of the temporal dynamics of sessile invertebrates on coral reefs. Increased dominance of algae and, in some cases, sponges has been documented on many coral reefs around the world, but how these organisms benefit from non-colonized substrate on the reef is unclear. In this study, we d...
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Full-text available
Humans have relied on coastal resources for centuries. However, current growth in population and increased accessibility of coastal resources through technology have resulted in overcrowded and often conflicted spaces. The recent global move towards development of national blue economy strategies further highlights the increased focus on coastal re...
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Full-text available
The rate of change in marine ecosystems and the speed with which pressure on those systems is escalating are much faster than rates of institutional change or management responses. The continued promulgation of a century‐old management approach (i.e., single species maximum sustainable yield), despite decades of scientific warnings regarding its fl...
Article
We describe a first estimate of the potential to increase production from Australia’s commercial fisheries based on the difference between current catches and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). MSY is not being advocated as a target reference point but enables a level of consistency across species and/or jurisdictions with different reference points....
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The ocean economy is experiencing rapid growth that will provide benefits but will also pose environmental and social risks. With limited space and degraded resources in coastal areas, offshore waters will be a particular focus of Blue Economy expansion over the next decade. When emerging and established economic sectors expand in offshore waters (...
Article
This paper explores institutional responses from Regional Fisheries Bodies (RFBs) to climate change. Fisheries management is highly dependent on the stability or predictability of targeted fish populations. Oceanic changes occurring as a result of climate change will see continuing and potentially irreversible deviations from the conditions of fish...
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• Fishing is a strong selective force and is supposed to select for earlier maturation at smaller body size. However, the extent to which fishing‐induced evolution is shaping ecosystems remains debated. This is in part because it is challenging to disentangle fishing from other selective forces (e.g., size‐structured predation and cannibalism) in c...
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Planning and management require expectations of future system behavior. These expectations can come in the form of predictions, projections, scenarios, narratives, visions and intuitions, at different spatial and temporal scales. While each can provide different insights into a system future, it is not clear how they can be effectively combined int...
Article
In a rapidly changing world, scientists and research institutions need to plan for the infrastructure, skills, and policy engagement that will help society navigate social-ecological challenges. Foresighting draws on approaches used in strategic and long-range (>10 years) planning and participatory futures studies. Here, we describe a new quantitat...
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Climate-driven trends in ocean temperature and primary productivity are projected to differ greatly across the globe, triggering variable levels of concern for marine biota and ecosystems. Quantifying these changes, and the complex ways in which resource-dependent communities will need to respond, is inherently difficult. Existing uncertainty about...
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Transfer efficiency is the proportion of energy passed between nodes in food webs. It is an emergent, unitless property that is difficult to measure, and responds dynamically to environmental and ecosystem changes. Because the consequences of changes in transfer efficiency compound through ecosystems, slight variations can have large effects on foo...
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Applied ecology has traditionally approached management problems through a simplified, single-species lens. Repeated failures of single-species management have led us to a new paradigm - managing at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem management involves a complex array of interacting organisms, processes and scientific disciplines. Accounting for inter...
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Policy makers rely on biodiversity indicators to assess when, where and how nature is changing. Some indicators, however, respond more quickly to pressures than others, measuring short‐term and potentially reversible change, while others capture permanent loss of biodiversity. These characteristics influence an indicator's suitability to perform pr...
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Ecosystem models require the specification of initial conditions, and these initial conditions have some level of uncertainty. It is important to allow for uncertainty when presenting model results, because it reduces the risk of errant or non-representative results. It is crucial that model results are presented as an envelope of what is likely, r...
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The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were designed to address interactions between the economy, society, and the biosphere. However, indicators used for assessing progress toward the goals do not account for these interactions. To understand the potential implications of this compartmentalized assessment framework, we explore progress evaluatio...
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Research practice, funding agencies and global science organizations suggest that research aimed at addressing sustainability challenges is most effective when ‘co-produced’ by academics and non-academics. Co-production promises to address the complex nature of contemporary sustainability challenges better than more traditional scientific approache...
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Expertise in research integration and implementation is an essential but often overlooked component of tackling complex societal and environmental problems. We focus on expertise relevant to any complex problem, especially contributory expertise, divided into ‘knowing-that’ and ‘knowing-how.’ We also deal with interactional expertise and the fact t...
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Full-text available
In a rapidly changing world, scientists and research institutions need to plan for the infrastructure, skills, and policy engagement that will help society navigate social-ecological challenges. Foresighting draws on approaches used in strategic and long-range (>10 years) planning and participatory futures studies. Here, we describe a new quantitat...
Article
This article recognizes that the impacts and effects of fishing are key to marine ecosystem management and explores the relationship between fisheries exploitation and sustainable harvests, and the collapse and depletion of stocks. A survey of 21 fisheries from around the world assessed key biological, environmental, social, economic, industry, gov...
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Humans have observed the natural world and how people interact with it for millennia. Over the past century, synthesis and expansion of that understanding has occurred under the banner of the “new” discipline of ecology. The mechanisms considered operate in and between many different scales—from the individual and short time frames, up through popu...
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Calibration of complex, process-based ecosystem models is a timely task with modellers challenged by many parameters, multiple outputs of interest and often a scarcity of empirical data. Incorrect calibration can lead to unrealistic ecological and socio-economic predictions with the modeller’s experience and available knowledge of the modelled syst...
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Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is a globally mandated approach with the intention to jointly address ecological and human (social-cultural, economic and institutional) dimensions. Indicators to measure performance against objectives have been suggested, tested, and refined but with a strong bias towards ecological indicators. In this p...
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Marine ecosystems are influenced by multiple stressors in both linear and non-linear ways. Using generalized additive models (GAMs) fitted to outputs from a multi-ecosystem, multi-model simulation experiment, we investigated 14 major ecological indicators across ten marine ecosystems about their responses to fishing pressure under: (i) three differ...
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While small-scale and artisanal fisheries are undeniably important globally, there is no global consensus on how to define the sectors, hindering comparative studies and international agreements. We focused on the usage of the words in both the scientific literature and legal documents and show that the confusion stems from a misuse of the terms ar...
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1.Marine ecosystem management is increasingly expected to take into account a wide range of ecological and socio‐economic factors. Decision making is helped by end‐to‐end ecosystem models that allow exploration of alternative management scenarios given a complex range of interacting factors. 2.We present Atlantis – a spatially structured largely de...
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Recent increases in the frequency of extreme climate events (ECEs) such as heatwaves and floods have been attributed to climate change, and could have pronounced ecosystem and evolutionary impacts because they provide little opportunity for organisms to acclimate or adapt. Here we synthesize information on a series of ECEs in Australia from 2011 to...
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Ecosystem and multi-species models are used to understand ecosystem-wide effects of fishing, such as population expansion due to predation release, and further cascading effects. Many are based on fisheries models that focus on a single, depleted population, and may not always behave as expected in a multi-species context. The spawning stock recrui...
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The Integrated Management System for the Aquaculture (SIMA in Spanish) is a comprehensive interoperable information and modelling platform that has been developed to provide the Chilean Aquaculture industry and government agencies with access to improved environmental intelligence allowing them to make better informed strategic and operational deci...
Data
Infographic designed by @McCorkStudios for publication: Kelly, R., Mackay, M., Nash, K.L., Cvitanovic, C., Allison, E.H., Armitage, D., Bonn, A., Cooke, S.J., Frusher, S., Fulton, E.A., Halpern, B.S., Lopes, P.F.M., Milner-Gulland, E.J., Peck, M.A., Pecl, G.T., Stephenson, R.L. & Werner, F. (2019) Ten tips for developing interdisciplinary socio-ec...
Article
Despite frequent calls for Integrated Management (IM) of coastal and marine activities, there is no consensus on the ‘recipe’ for successful adoption and implementation, and there has been insufficient evaluation of successes and failures of IM to date. The primary rationale for IM is to overcome four major deficiencies of sector-based management:...
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While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosyst...
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Marine ecosystem models that incorporate fisheries and climate change are essential for forecasting and guiding sustainable ecosystem management decisions. A key challenge in developing and applying ecosystem models that are able to provide robust predictions for management is to accurately represent the structure and dynamics of food webs. Ecosyst...
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Interdisciplinary research and collaborations are essential to disentangle complex and wicked global socio-ecological challenges. However, institutional structures and practices to support interdisciplinary research are still developing and a shared understanding on how best to develop effective interdisciplinary researchers (particularly at early...
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Moving toward ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) necessitates a suite of ecological indicators that are responsive to fishing pressure, capable of tracking changes in the state of marine ecosystems, and related to management objectives. In this study, we employed the gradient forest method to assess the performance of 14 key ecological ind...
Article
Previous reconstructions of marine fishing fleets have aggregated data without regard to the artisanal and industrial sectors. Engine power has often been estimated from subsets of the developed world, leading to inflated results. We disaggregated data into three sectors, artisanal (unpowered/powered) and industrial, and reconstructed the evolution...
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The Chatham Rise is a highly productive deep-sea ecosystem that supports numerous substantial commercial fisheries, and is a likely candidate for an ecosystem based approach to fisheries management in New Zealand. We present the first end-to-end ecosystem model of the Chatham Rise, which is also to the best of our knowledge, the first end-to-end ec...
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The Juan Fernández Ridge (JFRE) is a vulnerable marine ecosystem (VME) located off the coast of central Chile formed by the Juan Fernández Archipelago and a group of seamounts. This ecosystem has unique biological and oceanographic features, characterized by: small geographical units, high degree of endemism with a high degree of connectivity withi...
Data
Time series of the estimated recruitment deviations used for the spiny lobster recruitment model. (PNG)
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Time series of the biomass relative to the initial biomass for unfished (yellow) and fished (brown) ecosystems. (PNG)
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This file contains the text associated with the supplementary information. (PDF)
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Bathymetric range distribution of the JFRE AgeClass functional groups of the Juan Fernández Ridge ecosystem. (PDF)
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Biomass distribution of orange roughy based on the hydroaccoustic survey [106]. (PDF)
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Distribution of sharks based on the presence of these species in different areas. (PDF)
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JF. Morwong horizontal distribution by season. The ontogenetic stages—adults (Left column) and juveniles (right column)—were based on Rivara 2013 [104]. (PNG)
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Horizontal distribution in Spring for most of the functional groups. The functional group codes are as of S1 Table. (PNG)
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Biomass distribution of alfonsino based on the hydroaccoustic survey [106]. (PDF)
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Vertical depth distribution. The ontogenetic stages division for JF. morwong (BRC adult and Juvenil) was based on Rivara 2013 [104]. (PNG)
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Spiny lobster horizontal distribution by season. The ontogenetic stages—adults (Left column) and juveniles (right column)—were based the size at first maturity estimated by Ernst et al. 2016 [50]. (PNG)
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Horizontal distribution in Summer for most of the functional groups. The functional group codes are as of S1 Table. (PNG)