Elena Shevnina

Finnish Meteorological Institute · Meteorology Unit

We analyzed observations on floods in rivers located in Finland and northern Russia where hazardous floods often happen during a spring flooding period. We evaluated the length of spring flooding periods, the volume of spring floods, the yearly maximum water discharges (annual floods) and their dates from hydrographs. The hydrographs were evaluated...

In northern Europe, the risks of transport infrastructure and dams are related to changes in volume and magnitude of spring floods happening to rivers. We analyzed step-changes in time series of the spring flood runoff and yearly maximum water discharges that happened on 12 rivers located in Greenland (Denmark), Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland and...

Dust particles from high latitudes have a potentially large local, regional, and global significance to climate and the environment as short-lived climate forcers, air pollutants, and nutrient sources. Identifying the locations of local dust sources and their emission, transport, and deposition processes is important for understanding the multiple...

The study provides estimates of summertime evaporation over a glacial lake located in the Schirmacher oasis, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Lake Zub (alternately named Lake Priyadarshini and referred to throughout as Lake Zub/Priyadarshini) is the second-largest lake in the oasis, and its maximum depth is 6 m. The lake is also among the warme...

Dust particles emitted from high latitudes (≥ 50° N and ≥ 40° S, including Arctic as a subregion ≥ 60° N), have a potentially large local, regional, and global significance to climate and environment as short-lived climate forcers, air pollutants and nutrient sources. To understand the multiple impacts of the High Latitude Dust (HLD) on the Earth s...

The meteorological parameters and water balance components of Priyadarshini Lake at Schirmacher Oasis, East Antarctica, were studied using meteorological data procured from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) weather station, Maitri and field observations in summer seasons of 2017–2018 and 2018–2019. Meteorological data was analysed (daily te...

The water cycle in glacier hydrological networks is not well known in Antarctica. We present the first evaluations of evaporation over a glacial lake located in the Schirmacher oasis, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Lake Zub/Priyadarshini is a shallow lake of the epiglacial type, and it is ice free for almost two months in summer (December-Feb...

This study provides first estimates of the water transport timescale for five lakes located in the Larsemann Hills oasis (69∘23′ S, 76∘20′ E) in East Antarctica. We estimated lake retention time (LRT) as a ratio of lake volume to the inflow and outflow terms of a lake water balance equation. The LRT was evaluated for lakes of epiglacial and landloc...

Antarctica consists most of frozen water stored as ice and snow. Climate warming fasts melting of the ice -sheet, and the melted water is accumulated in populations of glacial lakes. Seasonal water cycle of the glacial lakes is not well known due to luck of observations with are mostly in limited number of field campaigns. In this study suggested t...

The study gives first estimates of water transport scale for five lakes located in the Larsemann Hills oasis (69º23' S, 76º20' E) in the East Antarctica. We estimated the lake retention time (LRT) as a ratio of the lake volume to the income and outcome terms of a lake water balance equation. The LRT was evaluated for lakes of epiglacial and land-lo...

To better understand a role of evaporation in water balance of the Antarctic lakes, two field experiments were done on lakes located in the Schirmacher oasis. These lakes are different in depth, volume and thermal regime. Lake Glubokoe is cold and deep water body with slow water exchange. Lake Zub/ Priyadarshini is warm and shallow pond continuousl...

The poster presents results on "snow oriented" measurement campaigns in the ice free oasis of the Larsemann Hills, the East Antarctica. The snow cover properties namely the snow density, snow extent and snow depth were measured in January, 2012, 2013, and 20017. These data were used to estimate the volume of melting water inflow into the lakes Step...

A lake residence time (LRT) for five lakes located in the Larsemann Hills oasis (69o23 ́S, 76o20 ́E) was evaluated from episodic hydrological measurements. The LRT was estimated for two epiglacial lakes (Lake Nella/Scandrett and Lake Progress) and land-locked lakes (Lake Stepped, Lake Sarah Tarn and Lake Reid) in an assumption that the lakes are mo...

The question of the environmental risks of social and economic infrastructure has recently become apparent due to an increase in the number of extreme weather events. Extreme runoff events include floods and droughts. In water engineering, extreme runoff is described in terms of probability and uses methods of frequency analysis to evaluate an exce...

This chapter is based on outcomes of the working group 3 Questionnaire of the COST Action ES1404 (www.harmosnow.eu) and provides a discussion of snow data assimilation in research and operational applications, which will be presented in detail in a manuscript (Helmert et al., 2018).

Exceedance probability of a potential hydropower production was evaluated for 12 river basins located in Finland. The exceedance probability curves of the potential hydropower production were assessed from the probabilistic projections of annual runoff rate. The exceedance probability curves of the ARR are constructed within the Pearson type 3 dist...

The short history and main changes of the new probabilistic hydrological model MARCS (MARkov Chain System).

Perspectives of an Eddy Covariance method to be apply to assess evaporation and CO2 fluxes over ice/snow covered surfaces and lakes is discussed. The specifics of the data post processing procedure for the Integrated 3-D sonic anemometer and CO2 and H2O open-path gas analyzer (Igrason) are suggested. The results for two field experiments in the Sch...

The presentation was done on a seminar in the University of Evora, 24 of October, 2018, during the short term scientific mission funded by COST 1404 and ASPIRE project. The presentation discusses water balance and probabilistic modeling approaches to predict surface water resources on lakes and river watersheds. Water balance modeling approach is p...

Potential hydropower production for 2020-2050 is calculated for 173 catchments located over the territories of Finland, Sweden, Norway, the Russian Federation, Canada and the United States . The results are based on hydrological river runoff projections assessed together with their exceedance probabilities. The annual runoff rate of particular exc...

A question of environmental risks of social and economic infrastructure has become apparent recently due to an increase in the number of extreme weather events. Extreme runoff events include floods and droughts. In water engineering extreme runoff is described in terms of probability, and uses methods of frequency analysis to evaluate an exceedance...

Antarctica is a home of numerous lakes, some of them spreading over ice free areas named oases. Water balance and thermal regime of lakes in oases are among important topic to study climate change in South hemisphere as well as to support a human activity in Antarctica. Thus, the studies have become to be an urgent topic at spots where scientific s...

The MARCS model simulated three non-central statistical moments of annual runoff rate for a projected period (2020-2050). These moments were used to calculate the mean value, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness, and then to evaluate the runoff with percentiles of exceedance probability for 10 % and 90 %. The projected EPCs were mod...

Evaporation from the lake in Antarctica

The problems related to impact of the expected climate change and hydrological response assessment for the coastal zones of the Russian Arctic are discussed. The study presents the approach, which allows to perform climate-based forecasting of multi-year river runoff in form of probability density function (pdf) using theoretical distributions from...

Aim: To support long-term desigion making in water demanding sectors of economic by probabilistic projections of river runoff. Objectives: (i) to develop probabilistic methods to predict river runoff extremes based on climate projections and (ii) to evaluate probabilistic projections of river runoff in near future to support decision making in cost...

Climate warming has been and will continue to be faster in the Arctic compared to the other domains of the world, which generates major challenges for human adaptation. Among others, the development of socioeconomic infrastructure and strategic planning requires long-term projections of water availability and extreme hydrological events. In this co...

Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of...

Thermal regime and water balance components of 12 lakes located at two different parts of the Antarctic (the Fildes peninsula in the Maritime Antarctic and the Larsemann Hills in the continental Antarctica) were studied using the observations from three field campaigns in 2012–2014. The morphometric characteristics of the studied lakes were updated...

The problems related to impact of the expected climate change and hydrological response assessment for the coastal zones of the Russian Arctic are discussed. The study presents the approach, which allows to perform climate-based forecasting of multi-year river runoff in form of probability density function (pdf) using theoretical distributions from...

Climate warming has been and is expected to continue faster in the Arctic than at lower latitudes, which generates major challenges for adaptation. Among others, long-term planning of development of socio-economic infrastructure requires climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of extreme flood events. To estimate the cost of faciliti...

Future infl ow to the irrigation scheme of the Syr Darya Basin is modelled under two climate scenarios, based on outputs of International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) core models run under IPCC-SRES A2 emission scenario. Under the GFDL99-R30-based scenario, the mean annual fl ow (MAF) is likely to increase by 10–20%. Under HadCM3-based scenario,...

Chapter in: CLIMATE CHANGE IN CONTRASTING RIVER BASINS: Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food and Environment. Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Peter Droogers. 2004. CABI Publishing.

Water, Climate, Food, and Environment in the Syr Darya Basin Contribution to the project ADAPT Adaptation strategies to changing environments July 2003

For the Russian Arctic territory, expected changes of multi- annual maximal flow statistics is estimated for the period of 2010- 39. Results are obtained for the climate scenarios SRES:A2, SRES:A1B and SRES:B1 for four projections from Global Circulation Models. The method of the long-term estimation of the multi-annual maximal flow statistic is ba...

Multi-year characteristics of the beginning of spring floods and their peak flow observed at the stream gauges located in the estuary sections of the Ob and Yenisei rivers in the period from 1936 to 2003 were obtained in this work. For most of stream gauges, significant correlation between these characteristic dates and dates when the accumulated p...

Long-term characteristics of the onset dates of spring ice phases at hydrological stations in the mouth areas of the Ob and Yenisei rivers for 1936–2006 are obtained. The correlations are analyzed between these dates and the frequency of different synoptic processes over the Atlantic and Eurasia in the fall-winter months, the dates when the accumul...

The results of a posteriori probabilistic interpretation of forecasts of freezing and ice breaking dates in Ob-Taz mouth area are presented. The method of interpretation is based on the use of conditional distributions of errors in forecasting continuous variables. Parameter estimates of the distribution density of actual dates are given for foreca...

This book, which contains 13 separately authored chapters, has been developed from the ADAPT Project, focusing on the development of regional adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability for water, food and the environment in river basins across the world. Chapter 1 describes a generic methodology for river basins (called the Ada...