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Introduction
15 years’ experience in Hydrology, Glaciology and Civil Engineering. Current research has been focused on functioning of alpine catchments and response of hydrological systems to climate change across different scales. Re-established and led field hydrological investigation in the Djankuat Alpine Research Catchment (North Caucasus) since 2007. Developed the AMelt energy-balance model of snow and ice melt in alpine areas. Contributing author of the IPCC 6th Assessment Report.
Current institution
Publications
Publications (53)
In this study, we adapted the ECOMAG model of the runoff formation for analysis of the Terek River basin using comprehensive hydrometeorological information as well as data on soils, landscape, and glaciation. To take account of regional characteristics of the glaciation, the additional ice module was used with the model. This improvement has resul...
As glacier degradation is intensifying worldwide, understanding how and when glacial runoff is important becomes imperative for economic planning and societal adaptation in response to climate change. This research highlights a probable emergence of new low-flow periods, ranging from one to several weeks, with an anticipated 50-90% reduction in run...
A methodology for surface water flood modelling is proposed, based on the use of small-scale mapping tools together with hydrological observation data. To reproduce the flooding surface during extreme floods, information on historical maximum water levels was selected, and a digital elevation model (DEM) was used as the cartographic basis. The prop...
The water resources of the North Caucasus depend mostly on the state of glaciers, which have been intensely losing their mass in the recent decades against the background of climate changes. The deglaciation leads not only to a decrease in the glacier runoff of mountain rivers, but also to changes in the annual distribution of runoff. The focus of...
The water resources of the North Caucasus depend mostly on the state of glaciers, which have been intensely losing their mass in the recent decades against the background of climate changes. The deglaciation leads not only to a decrease in the glacier runoff of mountain rivers, but also to changes in the annual distribution of runoff. The focus of...
As glacier degradation is intensifying worldwide, understanding how and when glacial runoff is important becomes imperative for economic planning and societal adaptation in response to climate change. This research highlights a probable emergence of new low-flow periods, ranging from one to several weeks, with an anticipated 50-90% reduction in run...
Empirical study of the isotopic features of river runoff were conducted at three hydrological posts in three different river basins: the Zakza river in the center of East European Plane (southwest of Moscow), the Dubna river (north of Moscow) and the Sosna Bystraya river in the south of central region. Samples of river water, groundwater, and preci...
Empirical study of the isotopic features of river runoff were carried out at three hydrological posts in 3 different river basins: the Zakza river in the center of East European Plane (southwest of the Moscow), the Dubna river (north of the Moscow) and the Sosna river in the south of central region. Samples of river water, groundwater and precipita...
This chapter assesses observed and projected climate-induced changes in the water cycle, their current impacts and future risks on human and natural systems and the benefits and effectiveness of water-related adaptation efforts now and in the future.
The present-day dynamics of maximal water levels was evaluated, and space and time variations of level excess during unfavorable and hazardous events in North Caucasian rivers were analyzed. The study was based on data from 59 hydrological gages over period 1961–2017. The mathematical expectation of maximal water levels was found to increase everyw...
The 2009, 2010, 2011, 2019 and 2020 hydrographs for the Protva River were separated into fast and basic components by the grapho-analytical method using the GrWat software package. The algorithm makes it pos�sible to automatically separate the spring flood, baseline runoff, rain and thaw floods, depending on the char�acteristics of the water regime...
Glacier mass balance measurements, reconstructions and modeling are the precondition for assessing glacier sensitivity to regional climatic fluctuations. This paper presents new glaciological and geodetic mass balance data of Austre Grønfjordbreen located in the western part of Nordenskiöld Land in Central Spitsbergen. The average annual mass balan...
High mountain areas are prone to extreme hydrological events, and their study is especially important in the context of ongoing intensive deglaciation. In this research, a model “chain” consisting of a hydrodynamic model and a runoff formation model is adopted to simulate a glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) from Bashkara Lake (the Central Caucasus...
As the direct measurements for the mass balance estimation can be applied only for a limited number of glaciers, alternative methods of estimation need to be developed. One of the most promising approaches is physically-based modelling, that is now being applied globally. In this study the mass balance of the Sary-Tor valley glacier was reconstruct...
At the end of the 20th—early twenty-first century, mountain glaciers exhibited the most negative mass balances since the beginning of observations. The hydrological consequence of deglaciation is a rise in glacial runoff until a maximum (‘peak water’) is reached, beyond which runoff decreases as glacier extents are reduced. It is likely that the pe...
The article focuses on the study of flood flow changes on the rivers of the European Territory of Russia (ETR) in the last thirty years. This is an extremely important problem, as with floods, whose contribution to the structure of the annual flow of European rivers in recent decades has been increasing, the most destructive floods are associated....
The A-melt model was applied to assess the contribution snow and ice melting to river flow during the summer period of 2017 for the Bashkara and Djankuat glaciers located in the Caucasus. During the study period, the Djankuat river runoff amounted to 120 thousand m ³ , while the peak value of snow and ice melting was 300-400 thousand m ³ per day, a...
This study aims to analyze the stable isotope composition of the snow cover of the Elbrus Mountain-the highest mountain in Europe. Snow sampled in the middle accumulation. Snow sampled at the south slope of Mt. Elbrus at different elevations, and the total altitude range is approximately 1700 m. A significant altitude effect in fresh snow precipita...
The river runoff regime significantly changed worldwide in the end of XX – the beginning of XXI century. In the European part of Russia the current changes are manifested in different ways in various regions. The main trend that is observed for most river basins is the ‘leveling’ of annual hydrographs. The interception of melt water during occasion...
This paper presents the first thorough generalization of the recent change in annual peak runoff magnitude, variation, and timing in the North Caucasus. The patterns of the observed changes in the characteristics of peak runoff in the late XX–early XXI century are rather complicated, but show consistent structures over the territory. The main possi...
This study presents a dataset on long-term multidisciplinary glaciological, hydrological, and meteorological observations and isotope sampling in a sparsely monitored alpine zone of the North Caucasus in the Djankuat research basin. The Djankuat glacier, which is the largest in the basin, was chosen as representative of the central North Caucasus d...
Measurements of summer mass balance Bs, made over the period 1946- 2016, on 56 continental glaciers, located in the basins of mountain rivers in 14 countries, were analysed for the purpose of resolving several tasks: (a) constructing physically based interrelations between river flow Wbas and Bs ; (b) estimating the representativeness of local meas...
One of the core elements in improvement of understanding of the nature of changes in hydrological extremes is a deep analyses of the historical data. When using for analysis only values that can be easily derived from the datasets of daily discharges: annual mean, min., max. value - we use only a small percentage of the information from the 365
dai...
The outburst of Bashkara Lake on September 1, 2017 reflects the current stage of glacier downwasting when the stable regime of lakes, debris complexes and glaciers is disturbed. We have estimated the parameters of the lake outburst as well as threshold and trigger conditions using ground-based and aerial observations, satellite imagery analysis, an...
The study presents a dataset on long-term complex glaciological, hydrological, meteorological observations and isotopes sampling in an extremely underreported alpine zone of the North Caucasus. The Djankuat research basin is of 9.1km², situated on elevations between 2500–4000m, by 30% covered with glaciers. The biggest in the basin – the Djankuat g...
Based on observational data from 70 hydrological stations in the North Caucasus an evaluation of present values of mean annual runoff, minimum monthly winter and summer runoff was carried out. Series of maps was drawn. Significant changes in mean annual. minimum monthly and maximum runoff during last decades have been revealed in the North Caucasus...
На сегодняшний день наводнения являются одним из наиболее частых источников чрезвычайных ситуаций, не только представляющих угрозу
сельскохозяйственным угодьям, объектам инфраструктуры и памятникам культурного наследия, но и таящих в себе опасность для жизни человека.
Территория Северного Кавказа достаточно часто страдает от подобного рода стихийны...
Прорыв озера Башкара 1 сентября 2017 г. – отражение современного этапа деградации ледников, когда нарушается стабильный режим озёр, моренных массивов, ледников. Оценка параметров прорыва озера и условий его формирования проводилась в результате маршрутных наземных и аэровизуальных наблюдений, инструментальных измерений с применением различных техни...
Modern features of the water regime are considered, namely, the role of flood runoff in its formation on the rivers of the European part of Russia. Based on the analysis of the hydrograph by genetic components, changes in the characteristic dates and maximum water consumption of thaw and rain floods, and the volume of runoff for each phase of the h...
Frequency and intensity of river floods rise observed in the North Caucasus during last decades is considered to be driven by recent climate change. In order to predict possible future trends in extreme hydrological events in the context of climate change, it is essential to estimate the contribution of different feed sources in complicated flow-fo...
Frequency and intensity of river floods rise observed in the North Caucasus during last decades is considered to be driven by recent climate change. In order to predict possible future trends in extreme hydrological events in the context of climate change, it is essential to estimate the contribution of different feed sources in complicated flow-fo...
The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake. The spelling of the Yu.K. VASILCHUK’s name was incorrect. The correct name is given below. Yu.K. VASIL’CHUK
Hydrological extreme events pose an imminent risk to society and economics. In this paper, various aspects of hydrological hazards in Russia are analysed at different scales of risk assessment. It is shown that the number of hydrological and meteorological hazards in Russia has been growing every year. The frequency of economic losses associated wi...
High mountain areas provide water resources for a large share of the world’s population. The ongoing deglaciation of these areas is resulting in great instability of mountainous headwater regions, which could significantly affect water supply and intensify dangerous hydrological processes. The hydrological processes in mountains are still poorly un...
Tian Shan is a water tower of Central Asia. Rapid and accelerating glacier downwasting is typical for this region.
Study sites – Sary-Tor glacier and Glacier No.354 are located in Ak-Shyirak massif, Naryn headwaters. Sary-Tor
was chosen as representative for Ak-Shyirak (Ushnurtsev, 1991; Oledeneniye TianShanya, 1995) for direct massbalance measurem...
Detection of the rivers' feeding type is a complex and multifactor task. Such partitioning should be based, on the one hand, on the genesis of the feeding water, on the other hand, on its physical path. At the same time it should consider relationship of the feeding type with corresponding phase of the water regime. Due to the above difficulties an...
Tian Shan is a water tower of Central Asia. Rapid and accelerating glacier downwasting is typical for this region. Study sites – Sary-Tor glacier and Glacier No.354 are located in Ak-Shyirak massif, Naryn headwaters. Sary-Tor was chosen as representative for Ak-Shyirak (Ushnurtsev, 1991; Oledeneniye TianShanya, 1995) for direct massbalance measurem...
High-elevation mountain catchments provide fresh water recourses for biological communities and people living in mountain valleys. An ongoing active deglaciation results in great instability of mountainous headwater regions that can considerably affect water supply and cause intensification of dangerous hydrological processes. Due to complicated na...
The formation of snowmelt runoff from the Dzhankuat glacier has been considered and the hydrograph
of the Dzhankuat R. has been separated with the use of isotope and ionic balance. Isotope variations
of runoff at the outlet section of the Dzhankuat R. have been studied for two ablation seasons of 2013 and
2014. The separation of 2014 hydrograph was...
This paper reviews the changes in river flow of the European part of Russia during the low-flow period, characterizing groundwater flow feeding. River flow oscillations were analyzed for winter and summer periods. Statistical analyses of average low flow and the minimum monthly summer and winter discharges for 1946–1977 and 1978–2010 showed signifi...
Application of the stable isotope method in the balance equations used to calculate separation of the runoff hydrograph from the Djankuat Glacier basin is demonstrated. Simultaneous solution of equations of water, isotope and ion balances is applied to estimate contributions of different components and processes to formation of the Djankuat River r...
A multicomponent structure of sources of river runoff formation is characteristic of high-altitude territories: ice and firn melting; seasonal snow melting on glacier covered and non-glacier area of a watershed; liquid precipitation; underground waters. In addition, each of these components can run off the watershed surface in different ways. Use o...
The regional spatial-temporal analysis of the formation of the maximum flow was made on the basis of geographical and hydrological method using GIS-technologies and statistical methods. The characteristics of natural and anthropogenic prerequisites for the formation of floods were performed. Conclusion about the leading role of natural factors in t...
Drought; Hydrology; Impacts; Management; 2015 European drought
This paper reviews the changes in river flow of the European part of Russia during the low-flow period, characterizing groundwater flow feeding. River flow oscillations were analyzed for winter and summer periods. Statistical analyses of average low flow and the minimum monthly summer and winter discharges for 1946–1977 and 1978–2010 showed signifi...
The formation conditions of subsurface and surface water runoff and their resources have been analyzed. It has been shown that changes in recent years were accompanied by a considerable decrease in the unevenness of within-year distribution, an increase in the subsurface and a decrease in the surface components of river runoff. The natural regulati...
Extreme hydrological events on the rivers of European part of Russia are
closely related to the hydrological regime transformation answering recent
climate changes. Rivers in this region used to be traditionally attributed to
the Eastern-European type with well-pronounced seasonal flood wave and quite
low flow period during summer and winter. Durin...
Climate change-derived variations in the characteristics of the annual, dry-season, and minimal monthly
runoff in rivers of European Russia were estimated and analysed. The current changes in runoff characteristics
were studied for different river basins, and their major causes were identified. Regional regularities in the
hydrological and geohydro...
The study focused on hazardous hydrological processes in mountainous areas. The general objective was to analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of the characteristics of such processes in the Terek River basin and to examine the main approaches to calculating and forecasting these processes. The study mostly deals with maximum and minimum water fl...
The history of studies and development of water resources of the Fraser River (Canada) and its mouth area is presented. The
history of the Fraser River delta development and the hydrologomorphological processes that occur at this delta are discussed.
Close attention is given to the analysis of processes of dynamic interaction and mixing of river an...
Questions
Question (1)
Do you know any examples when the hydrological model made using SWAT became some software product used in operational practice for water management (cases of the water reservoirs management are most needed)? I can only find scientific research trying to google this. Thank you in advance!