Eirik J. Førland

• Cand.real
• Managing Director at Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Meteorologiens samfunnsbetydning er økende, ikke bare gjennom værvarslene, men også grunnet energiomstillingen og tilpasningen til klimaendringene. Høstingen av energi fra fossile reserver under bakken må erstattes av vind-, sol- og vannkraft på jordens overflate. Denne omstillingen vil kreve store arealressurser, og de lokale meteorologiske forhol...

Meteorologiens samfunnsbetydning er økende, ikke bare gjennom værvarslene, men også grunnet energiomstillingen og tilpasningen til klimaendringene. Høstingen av energi fra fossile reserver under bakken må erstattes av vind-, sol- og vannkraft på jordens overflate. Denne omstillingen vil kreve store arealressurser, og de lokale meteorologiske forhol...

In Finnmark, average winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) temperatures in the period 1961–1990 were about −5 °C at the coast, slightly lower in the fjords, and typically 10 °C lower inland. In the Yamal Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) average winter temperatures were even lower, ranging from −20 to −25 °C. Temperatures are presently increasing in the area, and towa...

In recent decades, surface air temperature (SAT) data from Global reanalyses points to maximum warming over the northern Barents area. However, a scarcity of observations hampers the confidence of reanalyses in this Arctic hotspot region. Here, we study the warming over the past 20–40 years based on new available SAT observations and a quality cont...

The paper presents prominent Nordic contributions to stochastic methods in hydrology and water resources during the previous 50 years. The development in methods from analysis of stationary and independent hydrological events to include non-stationarity, risk analysis, big data, operational research and climate change impacts is hereby demonstrated...

Short-duration rainfall extremes are associated with a range of societal hazards, notably pluvial flooding but in addition, e.g., erosion-driven nutrient transport and point-source contamination. Fundamental for all analysis, modelling and risk assessment related to short-duration rainfall extremes is the access to and analysis of high-resolution o...

Study region The Nordic-Baltic region has experienced numerous flooding episodes resulting from heavy rainfall. Such events are costly and may potentially threaten the safety of the population. In this paper we present a temporally long and spatially dense dataset of annual maximum daily precipitation and their date of occurrence measured in a larg...

Electronic archives of data from standard meteorological observations (mean daily/monthly surface air temperatures - SAT) at the meteorological stations at Bukhta Tikhaya (Hooker Island, 1929-1960) and Krenkel Observatory (Hayes Island, 1957-2017) on Franz Josef Land (FJL) are presented. Parallel data series of SAT made in 1958 and 1959 on both met...

The productive performance of large ungulates in extensive pastoral grazing systems is modulated simultaneously by the effects of climate change and human intervention independent of climate change. The latter includes the expansion of private, civil and military activity and infrastructure and the erosion of land rights. We used Saami reindeer hus...

Precipitation plays an important role in the Arctic hydrological cycle, affecting different areas like the surface energy budget and the mass balance of glaciers. Thus, accurate measurements of precipitation are crucial for physical process studies; but gauge measurements in the Arctic are sparse and subject to relocations and several gauge issues....

The aim of this study was to estimate a likely number of additional fatalities in ten largest cities in Poland, recorded during heat waves in particularly hot summer seasons. In the period of 1989–2012, for which data on mortality were available, the most intense, long-lasting, summer heat waves occurred in 1992, 1994, 2006, and 2010. The numbers o...

This report was commissioned by the Norwegian Environment Agency in order to provide basic information for use in climate change adaptation in Svalbard. It includes descriptions of historical, as well as projections for the future climate development in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and ocean, and it includes effects on the physical natur...

In the Norwegian Centre for Climate Service (NCCS) report "Climate in Svalbard 2100", two data sets based on reanalysis were used as supplement to observations in order to describe past and present climate in Svalbard. For temperature and precipitation, the present report provides an evaluation of these two data sets, as well as maps and climate st...

In the Norwegian Centre for Climate Service (NCCS) report "Climate in Svalbard 2100", two data sets based on reanalysis were used as supplement to observations in order to describe past and present climate in Svalbard. For temperature and precipitation, the present report provides an evaluation of these two data sets, as well as maps and climate st...

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake: The spelling of the Joanna O’Keeffe’ name was incorrect. The correct spelling is Joanna O’Keeffe. © 2018, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences & Polish Academy of Sciences.

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of o...

Deposition of black carbon (BC) aerosol in the Arctic lowers snow albedo, thus contributing to warming in the region. However, the processes and impacts associated with BC deposition are poorly understood because of the scarcity and uncertainties of measurements of BC in snow with adequate spatiotemporal resolution. We sampled snowpack at two sites...

This contribution discusses the challenges for developing national climate services in two countries with high fossil fuel production - Poland (coal) and Norway (oil and gas). Both countries, Poland and Norway, have highly developed weather services, but largely differ on climate services. Since empirical and dynamical downscaling of climate models...

On the basis of temperature observations at 60 meteorological stations in Poland, changes in the indices associated with the presence of extremely high air temperatures were examined. Indices associated with heat waves, such as the number of hot days (Tmax ≥30 °C) in the summer months (June, July, August) and beyond the summer months (May, Septembe...

Comparative analysis of records of two gauges with different wind shields (Tretyakov gauge and Geonor T200-B) were done, based on time series of parallel measurement in Barentsburg settlement, Svalbard, during two winter times in period from September 2014 to July 2016. All collected data of solid precipitation were divided into two ranges with dif...

Spitsbergen has experienced some of the most severe temperature changes in the Arctic during the last three decades. This study relates the recent warming to variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation (AC), air mass characteristics, and sea ice concentration (SIC), both regionally around Spitsbergen and locally in three fjords. We find subst...

Daily temperature measurements from six meteorological stations along the coast and fjords of western Spitsbergen have been digitized and quality controlled in a Norwegian, Russian and Polish collaboration. Complete daily data series have been reconstructed back to 1948 for all of the stations. One of the station’s monthly temperature series has pr...

Freezing rain and freezing drizzle events represent a critical feature of many regions of the world. Even at low intensities, these events often result in natural hazards that cause damage to housing, communication lines, and other man-made infrastructure. These events usually occur near the 0 °C isotherm. In a changing climate, this isotherm will...

International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA) activities and partnerships were initiated as a part of the 2007-09 International Polar Year (IPY) and are expected to continue for many decades as a legacy program. The IASOA focus is on coordinating intensive measurements of the Arctic atmosphere collected in the United States, Can...

To obtain estimates of extreme areal precipitation in Norway, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute currently applies a statistical method that combines measured point precipitation, empirical growth factors, and areal reduction factors. We here suggest performing statistical analysis directly on areal 24-hour precipitation from a gridded dataset...

Present-day precipitation and temperature simulations from regional climate models (RCMs) are compared with 2 re-analysis datasets, a hindcast dataset and observations over Scandinavia. The selected RCM data consist of 25 runs from the ENSEMBLES project, the re-analysis datasets are ERA-40 and ERA-Interim from ECMWF, the hindcast is NORA10 from MET...

Description of sea ice conditions in the fjords of Svalbard is crucial for sea transport as well as studies of local climate and climate change. Old observations from the Russian Hydrometeorological stations in the mining settlements Barentsburg (Grønfjorden) and Pyramiden (Billefjorden) have now been digitized. These visual and instrumental observ...

Soviet weather station "Pyramiden" was located in the same mining settlement on the northern shore of the Mimer bukta (Billefjorden, West Spitsbergen Island). Research station operated from 1948 to 1957, as a branch of Barentsburg research observatory (Grønfjorden, West Spitsbergen Island). It was the only station that held regular meteorological o...

The transition between the liquid and solid phase affects all processes in the Arctic. The solid phase is a special challenge to the instruments and the scientists who develop new instruments or analyze, correct, and interpret the observed data. This chapter shows some results from observed parameters of the hydrological cycle, that is, precipitati...

Numerous high-latitude locations in northern Scandinavia receive many summer vacationers, even though cool weather conditions there are at odds with some expert-based literature on tourist weather preferences. Surveys in 2 climatically different Arctic archipelagos demonstrate that most tourists perceive the summer weather as better than expected....

Substantial variations in temperature and precipitation have been observed since the first permanent weather station was established in the Svalbard region in 1911. Temperature and precipitation development are analysed for the longest observational series, and periods with positive and negative trends are identified. For all temperature series, po...

The spatial variation in monthly temperature normals (1961-90) from southern Norway was studied. Linear regression as well as an approach combining a deterministic and a geostatistical model were applied (residual kriging). The deterministic component describes the large-scale trend in the temperature, and in this study is defined as the vertical t...

Estimates of extreme values of precipitation represented as return period values and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) are frequently used in flood evaluation as well as dimensioning of hydro power dams. The estimates are also of interest for infrastructure constructions (e.g. urban runoff). The estimates establish a reference to how rare a heav...

Using 6-hourly samples of precipitation at Lista, the influence of local and remote sources of acid precipitation in Southwestern Norway is discussed. The distribution of pH values for different wind directions indicates that the acidity in this area is hardly caused by local sources. A study of the trajectories of the rainbearing airmasses shows t...

In this study trends and variability of temperature, precipitation and snow at four stations of theYamalo-Nenets AO, Russia (Mare-Sale, Tarko-Sale, Salekhard and Nadym) were examined along asimulated migration gradient used by nomadic reindeer herders where Mare-Sale represents pasturesused in summer and the Nadym region is used during winter. Migr...

The Arctic land areas have over the latest 2–3 decades experienced more warming than any other region on earth, and the sea-ice cover has decreased in the order of 10% in the same period. The Arctic climate conditions show large variability, both from year-to-year, but also on a decadal scale. A warm period, almost as warm as the present, was obser...

Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway have been estimated through combination of results from the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios, global climate models from the Hadley Centre and the Max-Planck Institute, and dynamical downscaling using the RegClim HIRHAM regional climate model. Temperature and precipitation simulations...

The new normal values for the period 1961–1990 will be used as a reference for weather conditions in years to come. There has been a drop in temperature in most parts of Norway since the previous normal period 1931–1960. Annual precipitation has increased in most parts of the country. Moving averages indicate that a 30-year period is too short a ti...

Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway have been estimated through combination of results from the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios, global climate models from the Hadley Centre and the Max-Planck Institute, and dynamical downscaling using the RegClim HIRHAM regional climate model. Temperature and precipitation simulations...

Significant climatic changes over Northern Eurasia during the 20th century have been reflected in numerous variables of economic, social, and ecological interest, including the natural frequency of forest fires. For the former USSR, we are now using the Global Daily Climatology Network and a new Global Synoptic Data Network archive, GSDN, created j...

Large-scale changes in the sea-level pressure do not necessary reflect changes in the atmospheric moisture budget, and hence may not give a good representation of changes in precipitation as a result of a global warming. Statistical models that use both sea-level pressure and large-scale precipitation as predictors are evaluated for a number of loc...

To assess the effect of anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols on climates with todays and future greenhouse gas concentrations, we have run a set of 50 year simulations with CCM-Oslo coupled to a slab ocean model. CCM-Oslo is an extended version of the global climate model NCAR CCM3.2. When aerosol emissions are changed from preindustrial or pres...

Variations in the snow cover period in Northern Europe (Scandinavia and northern part of the East European Plain) are studied. It is found that the period of snow cover tends to increase against the background of the air temperature rise in the cold period. The area is divided into regions in accordance with the conjugated long-term changes in the...

Determination of driving rain exposure typically requires hourly values of rainfall and mean directional wind speed. Weather data at most observing stations in Norway are not recorded as hourly values and are therefore not amenable to this type of analysis. We present an alternative method for assessing driving rain exposures based on multi-year re...

Studies from recent years involving development and application of statistical downscaling models for Scandinavia (mainly Norway and Sweden) are reviewed. In most of the studies linear techniques were applied. Local temperature and/or precipitation were predictands in a majority of the studies. Large-scale temperature fields, either from 2 m or 850...

Based on observation data the spatial variability and long-term trends of snow depth, snow water equivalent and number of days with snow coverage ≥50% for Northern Eurasia are estimated. The significance of continental snow cover variability over Northern Eurasia is illustrated by comparison with snow cover variability of the northern part of North...

Observation data of temperature, precipitation and snow depth have been compiled and generalized climatologically for a network of 38 stations in and around the Barents and Kara seas, for the period 1951–1992. The monthly precipitation totals were corrected for measuring errors, and the correction method is described in detail. The corrected precip...

Observation data of temperature, precipitation and snow depth have been compiled and generalized climatologically for a network of 38 stations in and around the Barents and Kara seas, for the period 1951–1992. The monthly precipitation totals were corrected for measuring errors, and the correction method is described in detail. The corrected precip...

met.no has published snow accumulation maps for Norway for more than 50 years. During the winter 2003-2004 new methods are developed by NVE and met.no to produce snow maps accounting for melting, refreezing and winter rain. The maps are daily products updated on a weekly basis. Spatial estimation of air temperature and precipitation is applied to o...

During the winter 2004 new methods are developed by NVE and met.no to produce snow maps accounting for accumulation, melt, refreezing and winter rain. The maps substitute traditional snow accumulation maps, and are daily products updated on a weekly basis. Spatial estimation of temperature and precipitation is applied to observations from the Norwe...

Observational series and downscaled scenarios of air temperature are used to describe long-term variations 1900–2050 in different climatic indices that are important for the living conditions in the Nordic Arctic (Northern Fennoscandia, Svalbard, Faeroe Islands, and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea regions). In addition to air temperature; indic...

Significant climatic changes over the high latitudes in the 20th century have been reflected in numerous variables of economic, social, and ecological interests, including the natural frequency of forest fires. Using meteorological information for the past century, we found a significant (sometimes a twofold) increase in indices that characterize t...

Empirically downscaled climate scenarios are presented for the Svalbard region, based on mixed 2‐meter temperature and sea level pressure fields. The scenarios are derived using the large‐scale fields from the ECHAM4‐GSDIO, HadCM3, and NCAR‐CSM climate change experiments, and utilizing common empirical orthogonal functions. There are substantial di...

Long-term variability of the dates of formation and destruction of snow cover and its duration is studied. Quantitative relations are derived between changes in the water equivalent of snow cover, duration of snow cover, winter air temperature and precipitation, and atmospheric circulation indices.

Sparse stations and serious measuring problems hamper analyses of climatic conditions in the Arctic. This paper presents a discussion of measuring problems in the Arctic and gives an overview of observed past and projected future climate variations in Svalbard and Jan Mayen. Novel analyses of temperature conditions during precipitation and trends i...

Sparse stations and serious measuring problems hamper analyses of climatic conditions in the Arctic. This paper presents a discussion of measuring problems in the Arctic and gives an overview of observed past and projected future climate variations in Svalbard and Jan Mayen. Novel analyses of temperature conditions during precipitation and trends i...

A scenario from the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model ECHAM4/OPYC3 was downscaled by empirical and dynamical methods to show projected changes in temperature (T) and precipitation (R) in Norway under global warming. In the empirical models, large-scale T was applied as a predictor for T. For R, both T and sea-level pressure (SLP) were applied...

Scenarios of the annual and seasonal runoff for the period 2030-49 compared to the recent period 1980-99 have been developed. The scenarios are based on daily temperature and precipitation series from the research project: Regional Climate Development Under Global Warming (RegClim) in Norway. The study utilises dynamically downscaled series for the...

In high latitude area snow covers the ground large parts of the year. Information about the water volume as snow is of major importance in many respects. Flood forecasters at NVE need it in order to assess possible flood risks. Hydropower producers need it to plan the most efficient production of the water in their reservoirs, traders to estimate t...

Based on downscaled daily precipitation values from the global climate model of the Max Planck Institute in Hamburg, time series of 20 years have been generated to describe the current climate of 1980- 1999 (control data) and the future climate of 2030-2049 (scenario data) for Norway. These time series serve as training data for the Randomised Bart...

The first part of the paper gives a review of recent and projected climatic variations in the Norwegian Arctic. The annual temperature has increased in the Svalbard region and at Jan Mayen during the latest decades, but the present level is still lower than in the 1930s. Measured annual precipitation has increased by more than 2.5% per decade durin...

We present a dataset of daily resolution climatic time series that has been compiled for the European Climate Assessment (ECA). As of December 2001, this ECA dataset comprises 199 series of minimum, maximum and/or daily mean temperature and 195 series of daily precipitation amount observed at meteorological stations in Europe and the Middle East. A...

In a joint Nordic effort, a high-quality climate data set for the Nordic Arctic is established. The data set consists of monthly values from 20 stations in Greenland, Iceland, the Faeroes, and the Norwegian Arctic. The data set is made available on the web. Ten climate elements are included, and most of the series covers the period 1890–2000. The d...

The role of sea-ice for the local climate in the Svalbard region is investigated using observed temperature records from Arctic climate stations and gridded sea-ice data. The coupling between sea-ice and sea level pressure as well as 2-meter temperature is also examined. The quality of the sea-ice product from the HadISST1.1 project is evaluated in...

We present a dataset of daily resolution climatic time series that has been compiled for the European Climate Assessment (ECA). As of December 2001, this ECA dataset comprises 199 series of minimum, maximum and/or daily mean temperature and 195 series of daily precipitation amount observed at meteorological stations in Europe and the Middle East. A...

The monthly mean 2 m temperature and sea-level pressure (SLP) fields from the most recent integration (GSDIO) with the Max Planck Institute's global coupled climate model ECHAM4/OPYC3 are compared to historical data over Norway including Svalbard. For temperature, observations from selected stations are directly compared to values at grid points ne...

Monthly mean 2m temperatures (T) and sea level pressure (SLP) fields from the “GSDIO-integration” with the Max-Planck-Institute’s global coupled climate model ECHAM4/OPYC3 are compared to similar observed quantities over Norway and Svalbard. For temperature, values from selected grid-points are compared directly to values from selected stations. Fo...

The mean annual temperature in the Norwegian Arctic (Svalbard and Jan Mayen) has undergone large fluctuations during the 20th century. Temperature increases before the 1930s, and decreases from the 1940s to the 1960s are larger than on the Norwegian mainland and stations farther south in continental Europe. Despite increasing temperatures during re...

Future local climate scenarios for Norway based on the Max-Planck-Institute’s most recent global climate model, ECHAM4/OPYC3, are presented. These have been estimated using common EOFs and linear techniques such as canonical correlation analysis. The predictors are sea level pressure and 2-meter temperatures. In order to maximise the prediction ski...

The main aim of the present study was to identify to what degree decadal scale variability and long-term trends in temperature and precipitation in Norway can be attributed to variations in the dominating atmospheric circulation patterns. Empirical models were developed and tested on monthly series of temperature and precipitation in different regi...

Results from the WMO Solid Precipitation MeasurementIntercomparison and parallel precipitationmeasurements from Svalbard are used to evaluate andadjust models for estimating true precipitation underArctic conditions. The conclusion is that trueprecipitation in the Arctic may be estimatedreasonably well when the wind speed at gauge height isless tha...