Efrén Murillo-Zamora

• Doctor of Philosophy
• Senior Researcher at Mexican Institute of Social Security

Objective. To estimate the cumulative incidence of persistent arthralgia at 6 months from acute Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection and to evaluate the association of clinical markers with the risk of long-term arthralgia. Methods. This multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Mexican state of Colima. A total of 136 individuals a...

Background: Excess body weight has become a major public health problem worldwide, and the burden of overweight and obesity was calculated in this work from a health economics perspective. Objective: To estimate the burden of disease attributable to overweight and obesity among males and females aged 20 years and older using years of life lost (YL...

The rs2981582 single nucleotide polymorphism in the fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 gene has been consistently associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. We evaluated the effect of rs2981582 polymorphism in the FGFR2 gene on the risk of breast cancer and its interaction with non-genetic risk factors. A population-based case-control stu...

Background The six global nutrition targets (GNTs) related to low birthweight, exclusive breastfeeding, child growth (ie, wasting, stunting, and overweight), and anaemia among females of reproductive age were chosen by the World Health Assembly in 2012 as key indicators of maternal and child health, but there has yet to be a comprehensive report o...

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides a comprehensive assessment of health and risk factor trends at global, regional, national, and subnational levels. This study aims to examine the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the USA and highlight the disparities in health outcomes ac...

Background The capacity to anticipate future health issues is important for both policy makers and practitioners in the USA, as such insights can facilitate effective planning, investment, and implementation strategies. Forecasting trends in disease and injury burden is not only crucial for policy makers but also garners substantial interest from...

This study aimed to evaluate the pneumonia risk based on the patient’s sex during the COVID-19 pandemic and the early months of the endemic phase of the disease in Mexico. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using a dataset resulting from the epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 (February 2020 to August 2023). Data from 1.6 million adult...

Objectives: In this study, the trends and current situation of the injury burden as well as attributable burden to injury risk factors at global, regional, and national levels based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 are presented. Study design: To assess the attributable burden of injury risk factors, th...

Supplement to: GBD 2021 Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators. Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Lancet Public Health 2024; 9: e729–44. Appendix 3: Authorship appendix to “Forecasting the effects of smokin...

Background : Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve t...

Up-to-date estimates of stroke burden and attributable risks and their trends at global, regional, and national levels are essential for evidence-based health care, prevention, and resource allocation planning. We aimed to provide such estimates for the period 1990–2021. We estimated incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (...

Background: Up-to-date estimates of stroke burden and attributable risks and their trends at global, regional, and national levels are essential for evidence-based health care, prevention, and resource allocation planning. We aimed to provide such estimates for the period 1990–2021. Methods: We estimated incidence, prevalence, death, and disabilit...

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce com...

This study aimed to identify the factors associated with all-cause in-hospital mortality in laboratory-confirmed dengue cases from 2020 to mid-2024. A nationwide retrospective cohort study was conducted in Mexico and data from 18,436 participants were analyzed. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), estimated using generalized linear...

Summary Background Appendicitis is a common surgical emergency that poses a large clinical and economic burden. Understanding the global burden of appendicitis is crucial for evaluating unmet needs and implementing and scaling up intervention services to reduce adverse health outcomes. This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the gl...

Aim Our aim was to identify independent determinants of rapid weight gain in infants at 3‐4, 6, and 12 months of age. Methods A cohort study was conducted on Mexican term infants in public and private settings between March 2021 and May 2023. Rapid weight gain was defined as a ≥0.67 SD change in weight‐for‐age‐ Z ‐score from birth to 3‐4, 6, and 1...

Environmental exposure to heavy metals and metalloids, originating from sources such as mining and manufacturing activities, has been linked to adverse renal effects. This cross-sectional study assessed children's exposure to these elements and its association with urinary kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1). We analyzed data from 99 school-aged child...

Sugarcane production has been linked to the release of heavy metals and metalloids (HM/MTs) into the environment, raising concerns about potential health risks. This study aimed to assess the levels of 19 HM/MTs in children living near a sugarcane mill through a pilot biomonitoring investigation. We investigated sex-related differences in these ele...

El documento es una Editorial

Summary Background Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injur...

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to i...

Background Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensiv...

Summary Background Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injur...

Background Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-base...

Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important follow...

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to i...

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38092509/#full-view-affiliation-41

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is a multinational collaborative research study with >10,000 collaborators around the world. GBD generates a time series of summary measures of health, including prevalence, cause-specific mortality (CSMR), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disabi...

In patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), peritoneal dialysis (PD) is increasingly being adopted in developing nations due to its cost-effectiveness and advantages as a home-based treatment. However, the survival outcomes of chronic PD patients in Mexico, where the burden of ESKD is high, remain poorly understood. This study aimed to assess...

There are contradictory results regarding changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) survivors. An analysis of eGFR changes and clinical characteristics associated with those changes was conducted among COVID-19 survivors. eGFR values were compared at different time points (before and 4-, 8- and 12...

Introduction. Decreased hippocampal and amygdala volume has been associated with cognitive impairment. This study compared hippocampal and amygdala volumes in older adults with normal cognition and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with FreeSurfer software. Material and Methods. This cross-sectional study analyz...

Background Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we...

The global health emergency caused by COVID-19 concluded in May 2023, marking the beginning of an endemic phase. This study aimed to evaluate the association between vaccination status and other patient characteristics and the risk of severe disease during this new endemic period. A nationwide cohort study was conducted in Mexico, where we analyzed...

Background The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel di...

In May 2023, the global health emergency status of COVID-19 concluded, marking the onset of an endemic era. This study assessed survival rates among PCR-confirmed adult inpatients during this phase and determined contributing factors. Employing a survival analysis approach, this investigation utilized a nationwide Mexican cohort encompassing 152 ad...

Background The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel d...

The energy industry significantly contributes to anthropogenic methane emissions, which add to global warming and have been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). This study aims to evaluate the relationship between energy-related methane emissions and the burden of CVD, measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), in...

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global health challenge and a critical threat to modern health care. Quantifying its burden in the WHO Region of the Americas has been elusive—despite the region’s long history of resistance surveillance. This study provides comprehensive estimates of AMR burden in the Americas to assess this g...

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the World Health Organization (WHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) case definitions for influenza-like illness (ILI) in diagnosing influenza during the 2022-2023 flu season in Mexico. Study design: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of national epidemiological...

Background Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases,...

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on global health, necessitating urgent and effective strategies to mitigate its consequences. Vaccination programs have been implemented worldwide to combat virus transmission and reduce the disease burden. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between COVID-19 vaccination coverage and a...

Background: Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases...

Understanding the risk factors associated with COVID-19 infection among healthcare workers is crucial for infection prevention and control. The aim of this study was to examine the risk of testing positive for COVID-19 among a multicenter cohort of workers, taking into account their occupational roles (medical professionals, staff in operational an...

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the survival experience of children hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection due to bronchiolitis. Study design: This was a nationwide retrospective cohort study conducted in Mexico. Methods: We analyzed data from 436 children aged 5 years and younge...

Background Asthma and atopic dermatitis (AD) are chronic allergic conditions, along with allergic rhinitis and food allergy and cause high morbidity and mortality both in children and adults. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, national, and temporal trends of the burden of asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019 and analyze their association...

Dengue fever remains a significant global health concern, imposing a substantial burden on public health systems worldwide. Recent studies have suggested that climate change, specifically the increase in surface temperatures associated with global warming, may impact the transmission dynamics of dengue. This study aimed to assess the relationship b...

In recent years, it has been identifed that excess iron contributes to the development of various pathologies and their complications. Kidney diseases do not escape the toxic efects of iron, and ferroptosis is identifed as a pathophysiological mechanism that could be a therapeutic target to avoid damage or progression of kidney disease. Ferroptosi...

Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimat...

Background Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru’s healthcare system performance. Methods Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We...

Background: Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru’s healthcare system performance. Methods: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. W...

Purpose Prostate cancer (PC) is the second leading cause of cancer and the fifth cause of cancer-related death. This manuscript aims to determine the incidence, mortality, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) trends of PC in the last 30 years in Latin America and Mexico. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis of a publicly available...

Children, although mostly affected mildly or asymptomatically, have also developed severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aims to assess potential predictors of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in a large population (n = 21,121) of children aged 0–9 years with laboratory-confirmed disease. We performed a cross-sectional analysis...

Background Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CR...

Background Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CR...

Summary Background Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burd...

The transmission of the dengue virus in Mexico has historically been high, and its burden during the COVID-19 pandemic is currently not well understood. Our objective was to assess the burden of dengue-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2020 and 2022. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of databases resulting from an epidemi...

Background & Aims: Fatty liver disease is highly prevalent, resulting in overarching wellbeing and economic costs. Addressing it requires comprehensive and coordinated multisectoral action. We developed a fatty liver disease-Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) country score to provide insights into country-level preparedness to address fatty liver...

Background: Repeated SARS-CoV-2 infections are plausible and related published data are scarce. We aimed to identify factors associated with the risk of recurrent (three episodes) laboratory-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, and 1,700 healthcare workers were enrolled. We used risk r...

Background: Risk factors for developing long COVID are not clearly established. The present study was designed to determine if any sign, symptom, or treatment of the acute phase, or personal characteristics of the patient, is associated with the development of long COVID. Methods: A cohort study was carried out, randomly selecting symptomatic CO...

Recently, China announced that its "zero-covid" policy would end, which will bring serious challenges to the country's health system. In here we provide simple calculations that allows us to provide an estimate of what is expected as an outcome in terms of fatalities, using the fact that it is a highly contagious disease that will expose most of a...

Background: The respiratory syncytial virus infection (RSV) spread has been unusually high during 2022 and increasing trends have been documented We aimed to assess the survival experience of children hospitalized due bronchiolitis by laboratory-confirmed RSV. Methods: A nationwide and retrospective cohort was conducted in Mexico and data from 436...

Background: Repeated SARS-CoV-2 infections are plausible and related published data are scarce. We aimed to identify factors associated with the risk of recurrent (three episodes) laboratory-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted and 1,700 healthcare workers were enrolled. We used risk ratio...

Introduction: Diagnosing and treating human immunodeficiency virus carriers has led to the identification of a higher prevalence of said infection and, therefore, of a higher risk of transmission of the virus. Objective: To find out the trend of new cases of human immunodeficiency virus infection carriers at the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Soc...

We aimed to report the results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 related to respiratory malignant tumors (tracheal, bronchial, and lung) in Mexico. We also evaluated the relationship between the burden of these neoplasms and the proportion of daily smokers and total lead emissions in 2019. A cross-sectional analysis of ecological data wa...

Introducción: Hacer el diagnóstico y tratar a portadores del virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana ha llevado a identificar mayor prevalencia de esa infección y, por lo tanto, de un mayor riesgo de transmisión de este virus. Objetivo: Conocer la tendencia en México de los nuevos casos de portadores de infección por el virus de la inmunodeficiencia...

We use survival analysis to analyze the decay in the protection induced by eight SARS-CoV-􀀃 vaccines using data from 􀀂􀀂,􀀈􀀁􀀅 fully anonymized patients from the IMSS public health system in Mexico, including only previously vaccinated, confirmed SARS-CoV-􀀃 positive with a PCR test. We analyze the waning effect in those with complete vs. incomplete dos...

The burden of influenza in Mexico has been high. We aimed to characterize its epidemiological patterns before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A retrospective cohort study was conducted and 5652 PCR-confirmed cases of influenza (October 2019–April 2022) were analyzed. The highest incidence (144 per million) was observed...