Edward A G Schuur

Northern Arizona University | NAU · Center for Ecosystem Science and Society

Boreal forests harbor as much carbon (C) as the atmosphere and significant amounts of organic nitrogen (N), the nutrient most likely to limit plant productivity in high‐latitude ecosystems. In the boreal biome, the primary disturbance is wildfire, which consumes plant biomass and soil material, emits greenhouse gasses, and influences long‐term C an...

The permafrost region has accumulated organic carbon in cold and waterlogged soils over thousands of years and now contains three times as much carbon as the atmosphere. Global warming is degrading permafrost with the potential to accelerate climate change as increased microbial decomposition releases soil carbon as greenhouse gases. A 19-year time...

Radiocarbon (¹⁴C) is a critical tool for understanding the global carbon cycle. During the Anthropocene, two new processes influenced ¹⁴C in atmospheric, land and ocean carbon reservoirs. First, ¹⁴C-free carbon derived from fossil fuel burning has diluted ¹⁴C, at rates that have accelerated with time. Second, ‘bomb’ ¹⁴C produced by atmospheric nucl...

Permafrost thaw causes the seasonally thawed active layer to deepen, causing the Arctic to shift toward carbon release as soil organic matter becomes susceptible to decomposition. Ground subsidence initiated by ice loss can cause these soils to collapse abruptly, rapidly shifting soil moisture as microtopography changes and also accelerating carbon...

The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO, CH, and NO across the terr...

Permafrost ecosystems are limited in nutrients for vegetation development and constrain the biological activity to the active layer. Upon Arctic warming, permafrost thaw exposes large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC) to decomposition and minerals to weathering but also releases organic and mineral soil material that may directly influence the s...

Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS)—thermal erosion of soil and vegetation after ground ice thaw—are increasing. Recovery of plant biomass after RTS is important for maintaining Arctic carbon (C) stocks and is regulated by nutrient availability for new plant growth. Many RTS are characterized by verdant shrub growth mid-succession, atypical of the surr...

Interactions between minerals and organic carbon (OC) in soils are key to stabilize OC and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions upon permafrost thaw. However, changes in soil water pathways upon permafrost thaw are likely to affect the stability of mineral OC interactions by inducing their dissolution and precipitation. This study aims to assess and q...

The permafrost active layer is a key supplier of soil organic carbon and mineral nutrients to Arctic rivers. In the active layer, sites of soil-water exchange are locations for organic carbon and nutrient mobilization. Previously these sites were considered as connected during summer months and isolated during winter months. Whether soil pore water...

We present a timeseries of ¹⁴ CO 2 for the period 1910–2021 recorded by annual plants collected in the southwestern United States, centered near Flagstaff, Arizona. This timeseries is dominated by five commonly occurring annual plant species in the region, which is considered broadly representative of the southern Colorado Plateau. Most samples (19...

Upon permafrost thaw, the volume of soil accessible to plant roots increases which modifies the acquisition of plant-available resources. Tundra vegetation is actively responding to the changing environment with two major directions for vegetation shift across the Arctic: the expansion of deep-rooted sedges and the widespread increase in shallow-ro...

Considering cryosphere and warming uncertainties together implies drastically increased risk of threshold crossing in the cryosphere, even under lower-emission pathways, and underscores the need to halve emissions by 2030 in line with the 1.5 °C limit of the Paris Agreement.

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994–2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetatio...

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collection of phe...

Rapid Arctic environmental change affects the entire Earth system as thawing permafrost ecosystems release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Understanding how much permafrost carbon will be released, over what time frame, and what the relative emissions of carbon dioxide and methane will be is key for understanding the impact on global climate. I...

Abrupt thaw could cause permafrost ecosystems to release more carbon than is predicted from gradual thaw alone. However, thermokarst feature mapping is limited in scope, and observed responses of carbon fluxes to abrupt thaw are variable. We developed a thermokarst detection algorithm that identifies thermokarst features from a single elevation dat...

In this study, we directly measured summertime aquatic chemistry and total carbon fluxes in 33 watersheds across a physiographic transect which intersects a global hotspot of abrupt permafrost thaw. Patterns in stream chemistry and carbon sources reveal that distinct modes of carbon cycling are intrinsically coupled to regional variation in permafr...

Permafrost ecosystems are limited in nutrients for vegetation development and constrain the biological activity to the active layer. Upon Arctic warming, permafrost degradation exposes large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC) to decomposition and minerals to weathering, but also releases organic and mineral soil material that may directly influen...

Climate change affects the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions by exposing previously frozen permafrost to thaw, unlocking soil nutrients, changing hydrological processes, and boosting plant growth. As a result, sub-Arctic tundra is subject to a shrub expansion, called “shrubification”, at the expense of sedge species. Depending on the intrinsic foliar p...

Peatlands at high latitudes have accumulated >400 Pg carbon (C) because saturated soil and cold temperatures suppress C decomposition. This substantial amount of C in Arctic and Boreal peatlands is potentially subject to increased decomposition if the water table (WT) decreases due to climate change, including permafrost thaw‐related drying. Here,...

Background Determining the life-history traits of extinct species is often difficult from skeletal remains alone, limiting the accuracy of studies modeling past ecosystems. However, the analysis of the degraded endogenous bacterial DNA present in paleontological fecal matter (coprolites) may enable the characterization of specific traits such as th...

Arctic warming and permafrost degradation are modifying northern ecosystems through changes in microtopography, soil water dynamics, nutrient availability, and vegetation succession. Upon permafrost degradation, the release of deep stores of nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, from newly thawed permafrost stimulates Arctic vegetation produc...

Peatlands have often been neglected in Earth system models (ESMs). Where they are included, they are usually represented via a separate, prescribed grid cell fraction that is given the physical characteristics of a peat (highly organic) soil. However, in reality soils vary on a spectrum between purely mineral soil (no organic material) and purely o...

Mineral elements bind to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in permafrost soils, and this may contribute to the stabilization or the degradation of organic carbon along the soil to river continuum. Permafrost thaw enlarges the pool of soil constituents available for soil to river transfer. The unknown is how changes in hydrology upon permafrost degrada...

Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a...

Thawing permafrost in northern latitudes has led to deepening active soil layers and fluctuating water tables. This could increase plant access to permafrost‐derived nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and other nutrients such as calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg), and subsequently increase plant productivity and ecosystem carbon storage and nutrient cycling...

Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying time...

•The Arctic is continuing to warm faster than any other region on Earth, but key uncertainties remain in our knowledge of the Arctic carbon cycle. •We review the most current knowledge pertaining to estimates of arctic greenhouse gas components and discuss uncertainties associated with these measurements and models. •While the Arctic Ocean is consi...

Microorganisms are major constituents of the total biomass in permafrost regions, whose underlain soils are frozen for at least two consecutive years. To understand potential microbial responses to climate change, here we examined microbial community compositions and functional capacities across four soil depths in an Alaska tundra site. We showed...

Rapid Arctic warming is causing permafrost to thaw and exposing large quantities of soil organic carbon (C) to potential decomposition. In dry upland tundra systems, subsidence from thawing permafrost can increase surface soil moisture resulting in higher methane (CH4) emissions from newly waterlogged soils. The proportion of C released as carbon d...

Wildfire frequency and extent is increasing throughout the boreal forest-tundra ecotone as climate warms. Understanding the impacts of wildfire throughout this ecotone is required to make predictions of the rate and magnitude of changes in boreal-tundra landcover, its future flammability, and associated feedbacks to the global carbon (C) cycle and...

Arctic warming and permafrost degradation are modifying northern ecosystems through changes in microtopography, soil water dynamics, nutrient availability, and vegetation succession. Upon permafrost degradation, the release of deep stores of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus from newly thawed permafrost stimulates Arctic vegetation producti...

Time series of wetland methane fluxes measured by eddy covariance require gap-filling to estimate daily, seasonal , and annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for wetland methane fluxes, with regar...

Peatlands have often been neglected in Earth System Models (ESMs). Where they are included, they are usually represented via a separate, prescribed grid cell fraction that is given the physical characteristics of a peat (highly organic) soil. However, in reality soils vary on a spectrum between purely mineral soil (no organic material), and purely...

Permafrost is perennially frozen ground, such as soil, rock, and ice. In permafrost regions, plant and microbial life persists primarily in the near-surface soil that thaws every summer, called the ‘active layer’. The cold and wet conditions in many permafrost regions limit decomposition of organic matter. In combination with soil mixing processes...

Soil respiration (i.e. from soils and roots) provides one of the largest global fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere and is likely to increase with warming, yet the magnitude of soil respiration from rapidly thawing Arctic-boreal regions is not well understood. To address this knowledge gap, we first compiled a new CO2 flux database for...

Methane (CH4) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH4 emissions due to quasi-co...

Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information, but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying tim...

Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatio-temporal resolution. Over the past decades,...

Isotopic radiocarbon (Δ¹⁴C) signatures of ecosystem respiration (Reco) can identify old soil carbon (C) loss and serve as an early indicator of permafrost destabilization in a warming climate. Warming also stimulates plant productivity causing plant respiration to dominate Reco Δ¹⁴C signatures and potentially obscuring old soil C loss. Here, we inv...

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we pr...

Warming of the Arctic can stimulate microbial decomposition and release of permafrost soil carbon (C) as greenhouse gases, and thus has the potential to influence climate change. At the same time, plant growth can be stimulated and offset C release. This study presents a 15‐year time series comprising chamber and eddy covariance measurements of net...

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different...

Large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) have accumulated in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region, but their current amounts and future fate remain uncertain. By analyzing dataset combining >2700 soil profiles with environmental variables in a geospatial framework, we generated spatially explicit estimates of permafrost-region SOC stocks, qua...

Non-technical summary: We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakeni...

Methane (CH4) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH4 emissions, including thei...

Energy, water, and greenhouse gas exchange in the permafrost zone play an important role in the regional and global climate system at multiple temporal and spatial scales. High-latitude warming in recent years has substantially altered ecosystem function, including biosphere–atmosphere interaction, which may amplify or dampen future high-latitude w...

High‐latitude tundra ecosystems are increasingly affected by climate warming. As an important fraction of soil microorganisms, fungi play essential roles in carbon degradation, especially the old, chemically recalcitrant carbon. However, it remains obscure how fungi respond to climate warming and whether fungi, in turn, affect carbon stability of t...

Almost half of the global terrestrial soil carbon (C) is stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost region, where air temperatures are increasing two times faster than the global average. As climate warms, permafrost thaws and soil organic matter becomes vulnerable to greater microbial decomposition. Long‐term soil warming of ice‐rich permafrost...

Carbon (C) emissions from wildfires are a key terrestrial–atmosphere interaction that influences global atmospheric composition and climate. Positive feedbacks between climate warming and boreal wildfires are predicted based on top-down controls of fire weather and climate, but C emissions from boreal fires may also depend on bottom-up controls of...

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates o...

Earth system models (ESMs) have been rapidly developed in recent decades to advance our understanding of climate change‐carbon cycle feedback. However, those models are massive in coding, require expensive computational resources, and have difficulty in diagnosing their performance. It is highly desirable to develop ESMs with modularity and effecti...

One of the many reasons why a melting planet is a dangerous one is bacteria that break down carbon in soil. Freezing temperatures keep soil carbon locked away from these hungry microbes, but as temperatures rise, that carbon gradually becomes accessible, sending the bacteria into a feeding frenzy and thereby sending harmful carbon dioxide into the...

Soil microbial respiration is an important source of uncertainty in projecting future climate and carbon (C) cycle feedbacks. However, its feedbacks to climate warming and underlying microbial mechanisms are still poorly understood. Here we show that the temperature sensitivity of soil microbial respiration (Q10) in a temperate grassland ecosystem...

The magnitude of future emissions of greenhouse gases from the northern permafrost region depend crucially on the mineralization of soil organic carbon (SOC) that has accumulated over millennia in these perennially frozen soils. Many recent studies have used radiocarbon (14C) to quantify the release of this “old” SOC as CO2 or CH4 to the atmosphere...

Permafrost thaw is typically measured with active layer thickness, or the maximum seasonal thaw measured from the ground surface. However, previous work has shown that this measurement alone fails to account for ground subsidence and therefore underestimates permafrost thaw. To determine the impact of subsidence on observed permafrost thaw and thaw...