Edward M Hill

Edward M Hill
The University of Warwick · Zeeman Institute: SBIDER (Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research)

MMath, MSc, PhD

About

68
Publications
6,644
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
866
Citations

Publications

Publications (68)
Article
Rapid testing strategies that replace the isolation of close contacts through the use of lateral flow device tests (LFTs) have been suggested as a way of controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission within schools that maintain low levels of pupil absences. We developed an individual-based model of a secondary school formed of exclusive year group bubbles (...
Preprint
Control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic in England has relied on a combination of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as closure of non-essential shops and leisure activities, closure of schools, social distancing, mask wearing, testing followed by isolation and general public health awareness. Some of these measure...
Article
Full-text available
A range of measures have been implemented to control within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England, including the self-isolation of close contacts and twice weekly mass testing of secondary school pupils using lateral flow device tests (LFTs). Despite reducing transmission, isolating close contacts can lead to high levels of absences, negatively...
Article
Full-text available
Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is endemic in the United Kingdom and causes major economic losses. Control is largely voluntary for individual farmers and is likely to be influenced by psychosocial factors, such as altruism, trust, and psychological proximity (feeling close) to relevant “others,” such as farmers, veterinarians, the government, and thei...
Preprint
Background The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has generated considerable morbidity and mortality world-wide. While the protection offered by vaccines (and booster doses) offers a method of mitigating the worst effects, by the end of 2021 the distribution of vaccine was highly heterogeneous with some countries achieving over 90% coverage in adults by the end o...
Article
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provide a key statistical tool for understanding the many quant...
Preprint
Full-text available
Quantitative assessments of the recent state of an epidemic and short-term projections into the near future are key public health tools that have substantial policy impacts, helping to determine if existing control measures are sufficient or need to be strengthened. Key to these quantitative assessments is the ability to rapidly and robustly measur...
Preprint
Full-text available
Throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the worldwide transmission and replication of SARS- COV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 disease, has resulted in the opportunity for multiple mutations to occur that may alter the virus transmission characteristics, the effectiveness of vaccines and the severity of disease upon infection. The Omicron var...
Article
Full-text available
COVID-19 in the UK has been characterised by periods of exponential growth and decline, as different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are brought into play. During the early uncontrolled phase of the outbreak (March 2020) there was a period of prolonged exponential growth with epidemiological observations such as hospitalisation doubling eve...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: The spread of infection amongst livestock depends not only on the traits of the pathogen and the livestock themselves, but also on the behavioural characteristics of farmers and how that impacts the implementation of livestock disease control measures. Livestock owners may change their disease management behaviours in response to comple...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) causes substantial economic losses to cattle herds; however, control and eradication can be achieved by identifying and removing persistently infected cattle. Each UK nation has separate control programmes. The English scheme, BVDFree, started in 2016 and is voluntary. Methods: We analysed the test re...
Preprint
Full-text available
The reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission from contact tracing applications (apps) depends both on the number of contacts notified and on the probability that those contacts quarantine after notification.Referring to the number of days preceding a positive test that contacts are notified as an app's notification window, we use an epidemiological mod...
Preprint
In many countries, an extensive vaccination programme has substantially reduced the public-health impact of SARS-CoV-2, limiting the number of hospital admissions and deaths compared to an unmitigated epidemic. Ensuring a low-risk transition from the current situation to one in which SARS-CoV-2 is endemic requires maintenance of high levels of popu...
Article
Full-text available
Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stocha...
Article
Full-text available
The swift development of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines has been met with worldwide commendation. However, in the context of an ongoing pandemic there is an interplay between infection and vaccination. While infection can grow exponentially, vaccination rates are generally limited by supply and logistics. With the first SARS-CoV-2 vaccines receiving medical a...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in l...
Article
Full-text available
By mid-May 2020, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1 June 2020. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening sc...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background To control within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England, secondary school pupils have been encouraged to participate in twice weekly mass testing via lateral flow device tests (LFTs) from 8th March 2021, to complement an isolation of close contacts policy in place since 31st August 2020. Strategies involving the isolation of close co...
Article
Full-text available
As a countermeasure to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been swift development and clinical trial assessment of candidate vaccines, with subsequent deployment as part of mass vaccination campaigns. However, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has demonstrated the ability to mutate and develop variants, which can modify epidemiological properties and potentially...
Article
Full-text available
As part of a concerted pandemic response to protect public health, businesses can enact non-pharmaceutical controls to minimise exposure to pathogens in workplaces and premises open to the public. Amendments to working practices can lead to the amount, duration and/or proximity of interactions being changed, ultimately altering the dynamics of dise...
Preprint
Full-text available
Ongoing infection with, and associated viral reproduction of, SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the virus to acquire advantageous mutations, which may alter viral transmissibility and disease severity, and allow escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. The number of countries reporting Variants of Concern (VOCs) with such mutations cont...
Article
Full-text available
Background The introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the introduction of several control policies to reduce disease spread. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening to certain year...
Preprint
Full-text available
The rapid emergence of SARS-CoV-2 mutants with new phenotypic properties is a critical challenge to the control of the ongoing pandemic. B.1.1.7 was monitored in the UK through routine testing and S-gene target failures (SGTF), comprising over 90% of cases by March 2021. Now, the reverse is occurring: SGTF cases are being replaced by an S-gene posi...
Article
Full-text available
Around 40% of school leavers in the UK attend university and individual universities generally host thousands of students each academic year. Bringing together these student communities during the COVID-19 pandemic may require strong interventions to control transmission. Prior modelling analyses of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within universities using...
Article
Full-text available
The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission—successfully reducing the reproductive number R below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible individ...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Even with good progress on vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK may continue to impose a high burden of disease and therefore pose substantial challenges for health policy decision makers. Stringent government-mandated physical distancing measures (lockdown) have been demonstrated to be epidemiologically effective, but can have b...
Preprint
Full-text available
Universities provide many opportunities for the spread of infectious respiratory illnesses. Students are brought together into close proximity from all across the world and interact with one another in their accommodation, through lectures and small group teaching and in social settings. The COVID-19 global pandemic has highlighted the need for suf...
Preprint
Full-text available
The swift development of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines has been met with worldwide commendation. However, in the context of an ongoing pandemic there is an interplay between infection and vaccination. Whilst infection can grow exponentially, vaccination rates are generally limited by supply and logistics. With the first SARS-CoV-2 vaccines receiving medical...
Preprint
Full-text available
As a counter measure to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic there has been swift development and clinical trial assessment of candidate vaccines, with subsequent deployment as part of mass vaccination campaigns. However, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has demonstrated the ability to mutate and develop variants, which can modify epidemiological properties and the potenti...
Article
Full-text available
Background The dynamics of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are complicated by age-dependent factors, changing levels of infection, and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as the perceived risk declines, necessitating the use of mathematical models. Our aims were to use epidemiological data from the UK together with estimates of...
Preprint
Full-text available
The introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the UK government introducing several control policies in order to reduce the spread of disease. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening t...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Strategies involving rapid testing have been suggested as a way of reopening schools that minimises absences while controlling transmission. We assess the likely impact of rapid testing strategies using lateral flow tests (LFTs) on infections and absences in secondary schools, compared to a policy of isolating year group bubbles upon a...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives The Mathematical and Economic Modelling for Vaccination and Immunisation Evaluation (MEMVIE) programme aimed to explore, capture and support the potential contribution of the public to mathematical and economic modelling, in order to identify the values that underpin public involvement (PI) in modelling and co-produce a framework that id...
Article
Full-text available
Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a “stay at home” order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an indefinite p...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives The Mathematical and Economic Modelling for Vaccination and Immunisation Evaluation (MEMVIE) programme aimed to explore, capture and support the potential contribution of the public to mathematical and economic modelling, in order to identify the values that underpin public involvement (PI) in modelling and co-produce a framework that id...
Preprint
Full-text available
The announcement of efficacious vaccine candidates against SARS-CoV-2 has been met with worldwide acclaim and relief. Many countries already have detailed plans for vaccine targeting based on minimising severe illness, death and healthcare burdens. Normally, relatively simple relationships between epidemiological parameters, vaccine efficacy and va...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background As part of a concerted pandemic response to protect public health, businesses can enact non-pharmaceutical controls to minimise exposure to pathogens in workplaces and premises open to the public. Amendments to working practices can lead to the amount, duration and/or proximity of interactions being changed, ultimately altering the dynam...
Preprint
Full-text available
Around 40% of school leavers in the UK attend university and individual universities generally host thousands of students each academic year. Bringing together these student communities during the COVID-19 pandemic may require strong interventions to control transmission. Prior modelling analyses of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within universities using...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Short-term forecasts of infectious disease can aid situational awareness and planning for outbreak response. Here, we report on multi-model forecasts of Covid-19 in the UK that were generated at regular intervals starting at the end of March 2020, in order to monitor expected healthcare utilisation and population impacts in real time. M...
Preprint
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic in the UK has been characterised by periods of exponential growth and decline, as different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are brought into play. During the early uncontrolled phase of the outbreak (early March 2020) there was a period of prolonged exponential growth with epidemiological observations such as hospitali...
Article
Full-text available
For infectious disease prevention, policy-makers are typically required to base policy decisions in light of operational and monetary restrictions, prohibiting implementation of all candidate interventions. To inform the evidence-base underpinning policy decision making, mathematical and health economic modelling can be a valuable constituent. Appl...
Preprint
Full-text available
The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission- successfully reducing the reproductive number, R, below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible indi...
Preprint
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provides a key statistical tool for understanding the many quan...
Preprint
Full-text available
By mid-May, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1st June. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a "stay at home" order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an...
Preprint
Full-text available
For infectious disease prevention, policy-makers are typically required to base policy decisions in light of operational and monetary restrictions, prohibiting implementation of all candidate interventions. To inform the evidence-base underpinning policy decision making, mathematical and health economic modelling can be a valuable constituent. Appl...
Article
Full-text available
Seasonal influenza poses serious problems for global public health, being a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality. In England, there has been a long-standing national vaccination programme, with vaccination of at-risk groups and children offering partial protection against infection. Transmission models have been a fundamental componen...
Preprint
Full-text available
Seasonal influenza poses serious problems for global public health, being a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality. In England, there has been a long-standing national vaccination programme, with vaccination of at-risk groups and children offering partial protection against infection. Transmission models have been a fundamental componen...
Article
Full-text available
Background The parasite Leishmania infantum causes zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a potentially fatal vector-borne disease of canids and humans. Zoonotic VL poses a significant risk to public health, with regions of Latin America being particularly afflicted by the disease. Leishmania infantum parasites are transmitted between hosts during b...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: The parasite Leishmania infantum causes zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a potentially fatal vector-borne disease of canids and humans. Zoonotic VL poses a significant risk to public health, with regions of Latin America being particularly afflicted by the disease. Leishmania infantum parasites are transmitted between hosts during...
Article
Full-text available
In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to c...
Data
Supporting information for ‘The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh’. This supplement consists of the following parts: (1) Overview of existing and prospective response protocols and contingency plans for control of H5N1 HPAI in Bangladesh; (2) Description of the...
Preprint
Full-text available
In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to c...
Article
There were at least four flu pandemics in the past century, but is it possible to predict how many there might be in the century to come? Edward Hill, Michael Tildesley and Thomas House analyse 300 years of outbreaks in search of clues
Article
Full-text available
Recent research has provided evidence that mood can spread over social networks via social contagion, but that, in seeming contradiction to this, depression does not. Here, we investigate whether there is evidence for the individual components of mood (such as appetite, tiredness and sleep) spreading through US adolescent friendship networks while...