Edward M Hill

• MMath, MSc, PhD
• Tenure Track Fellow in Health Protection Data Science at University of Liverpool

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 saw severe detriments to public health being inflicted by COVID-19 disease throughout 2020. In the lead up to Christmas 2020, the UK Government sought an easement of social restrictions that would permit spending time with others over the Christmas period, whilst limiting the risk of spreading SARS-CoV-2. In November 202...

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. The protection provided by vaccines and booster doses offered a method of mitigating severe clinical outcomes and mortality. However, by the end of 2021, the global distribution of vaccines was highly heterogeneous, w...

In late 2020, the JCVI (the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, which provides advice to the Department of Health and Social Care, England) made two important recommendations for the initial roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine. The first was that vaccines should be targeted to the elderly and vulnerable, with the aim of maximally preventi...

Control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic in England has relied on a combination of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Some of these NPIs are extremely costly (economically and socially), so it was important to relax these promptly without overwhelming already burdened health services. The eventual policy was a Roadmap o...

The spread of infection amongst livestock depends not only on the traits of the pathogen and the livestock themselves, but also on the veterinary health behaviours of farmers and how this impacts their implementation of disease control measures. Controls that are costly may make it beneficial for individuals to rely on the protection offered by oth...

Reducing reliance on pesticides is an important global challenge. With increasing constraints on their use, in recent years there has been a declining trend in pesticide use for arable crops in the UK. But with increasing disease pressures and global demand for food, there is a greater need for effective measures of pest and disease control. These...

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012096.].

In this study, we investigate the impact of demographic characteristics on Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) cases in Saudi Arabia, specifically focusing on the time intervals between symptom onset and key events such as hospitalization, case confirmation, reporting and death. We estimate these intervals using data from 2196 c...

In England, and many other countries, immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease is highly heterogeneous. Immunity has been acquired through natural infection, primary and booster vaccination, while protection has been lost through waning immunity and viral mutation. During the height of the pandemic in England, the main aim was to rapid...

Avian influenza A(H5N1) poses a risk to public health due to its pandemic potential should the virus mutate to become human-to-human transmissible. To date, reported influenza A(H5N1) human cases have typically occurred in the lower respiratory tract with a high case fatality rate. There is prior evidence of some influenza A(H5N1) strains being jus...

The rapid development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 altered the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. In most countries, vaccinations were initially targeted at high-risk populations, including older individuals and healthcare workers. Now, despite substantial infection- and vaccine-induced immunity in host populations worldwide, waning immunity and th...

Symptom propagation occurs when the symptom set an individual experiences is correlated with the symptom set of the individual who infected them. Symptom propagation may dramatically affect epidemiological outcomes, potentially causing clusters of severe disease. Conversely, it could result in chains of mild infection, generating widespread immunit...

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007096.].

Background Respiratory pathogens inflict a substantial burden on public health and the economy. Although the severity of symptoms caused by these pathogens can vary from asymptomatic to fatal, the factors that determine symptom severity are not fully understood. Correlations in symptoms between infector-infectee pairs, for which evidence is accumul...

During infectious disease outbreaks, humans often base their decision to adhere to an intervention strategy on individual choices and opinions. However, due to data limitations and inference challenges, infectious disease models usually omit these variables. We constructed a compartmental, deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEI...

Background The COVID-19 pandemic both relied and placed significant burdens on the experts involved from research and public health sectors. The sustained high pressure of a pandemic on responders, such as healthcare workers, can lead to lasting psychological impacts including acute stress disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, burnout, and mora...

Symptom propagation occurs when the symptom set an individual experiences is correlated with the symptom set of the individual who infected them. Symptom propagation may dramatically affect epidemiological outcomes, potentially causing clusters of severe disease. Conversely, it could result in chains of mild infection, generating widespread immunit...

In British Columbia, Canada, initial growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was slower than that reported in other jurisdictions. Delta became the dominant variant (>50% prevalence) within ≈7-13 weeks of first detection in regions within the United Kingdom and United States. In British Columbia, it remained at <10% of weekly incident COVID-19 cases...

Background Respiratory pathogens inflict a substantial burden on public health and the economy. Although the severity of symptoms caused by these pathogens can vary from asymptomatic to fatal, the factors that determine symptom severity are not fully understood. Correlations in symptoms between infector-infectee pairs, for which evidence is accumul...

Quantitative assessments of the recent state of an epidemic and short-term projections for the near future are key public-health tools that have substantial policy impacts, helping to determine if existing control measures are sufficient or need to be strengthened. Key to these quantitative assessments is the ability to rapidly and robustly measure...

The COVID-19 pandemic both relied and placed significant burdens on the experts involved from research and public health sectors. The sustained high pressure of a pandemic on responders, such as healthcare workers, can lead to lasting psychological impacts including acute stress disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, burnout, and moral injury, w...

In late 2020, the JCVI (the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, which provides advice to the Department of Health and Social Care, England) made two important recommendations for the initial roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine. The first was that vaccines should be targeted to older and vulnerable people, with the aim of maximally prevent...

Human behaviour is critical to effective responses to livestock disease outbreaks, especially with respect to vaccination uptake. Traditionally, mathematical models used to inform this behaviour have not taken heterogeneity in farmer behaviour into account. We address this by exploring how heterogeneity in farmers vaccination behaviour can be incor...

Universities provide many opportunities for the spread of infectious respiratory illnesses. Students are brought together into close proximity from all across the world and interact with one another in their accommodation, through lectures and small group teaching and in social settings. The COVID-19 global pandemic has highlighted the need for suf...

Background: There has been concern throughout the COVID-19 pandemic over highly stressed healthcare capacities being further pressured by seasonal influenza epidemics. Interventions to tackle the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, have unsettled the respiratory pathogen landscape, including worldwide patterns of influenza activi...

Background. Even with good progress on vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK may continue to impose a high burden of disease and therefore pose substantial challenges for health policy decision makers. Stringent government-mandated physical distancing measures (lockdown) have been demonstrated to be epidemiologically effective, but can have...

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 saw severe detriments to public health being inflicted by COVID-19 disease throughout 2020. In the lead up to Christmas 2020, the UK Government sought an easement of social restrictions that would permit spending time with others over the Christmas period, whilst limiting the risk of spreading SARS-CoV-2. In November 202...

Background: Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) causes substantial economic losses to the cattle industry; however, control and eradication can be achieved by identifying and removing persistently infected cattle from the herd. Each UK nation has separate control programmes. The English scheme, BVDFree, started in 2016 and is voluntary. Methods:...

Background The reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission facilitated by mobile contact tracing applications (apps) depends both on the proportion of relevant contacts notified and on the probability that those contacts quarantine after notification. The proportion of relevant contacts notified depends upon the number of days preceding an infector’s posi...

Rapid testing strategies that replace the isolation of close contacts through the use of lateral flow device tests (LFTs) have been suggested as a way of controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission within schools that maintain low levels of pupil absences. We developed an individual-based model of a secondary school formed of exclusive year group bubbles (...

Control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic in England has relied on a combination of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as closure of non-essential shops and leisure activities, closure of schools, social distancing, mask wearing, testing followed by isolation and general public health awareness. Some of these measure...

A range of measures have been implemented to control within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England, including the self-isolation of close contacts and twice weekly mass testing of secondary school pupils using lateral flow device tests (LFTs). Despite reducing transmission, isolating close contacts can lead to high levels of absences, negatively...

Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is endemic in the United Kingdom and causes major economic losses. Control is largely voluntary for individual farmers and is likely to be influenced by psychosocial factors, such as altruism, trust, and psychological proximity (feeling close) to relevant “others,” such as farmers, veterinarians, the government, and thei...

Background The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has generated considerable morbidity and mortality world-wide. While the protection offered by vaccines (and booster doses) offers a method of mitigating the worst effects, by the end of 2021 the distribution of vaccine was highly heterogeneous with some countries achieving over 90% coverage in adults by the end o...

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provide a key statistical tool for understanding the many quant...

Quantitative assessments of the recent state of an epidemic and short-term projections into the near future are key public health tools that have substantial policy impacts, helping to determine if existing control measures are sufficient or need to be strengthened. Key to these quantitative assessments is the ability to rapidly and robustly measur...

Throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the worldwide transmission and replication of SARS- COV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 disease, has resulted in the opportunity for multiple mutations to occur that may alter the virus transmission characteristics, the effectiveness of vaccines and the severity of disease upon infection. The Omicron var...

COVID-19 in the UK has been characterised by periods of exponential growth and decline, as different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are brought into play. During the early uncontrolled phase of the outbreak (March 2020) there was a period of prolonged exponential growth with epidemiological observations such as hospitalisation doubling eve...

Background: The spread of infection amongst livestock depends not only on the traits of the pathogen and the livestock themselves, but also on the behavioural characteristics of farmers and how that impacts the implementation of livestock disease control measures. Livestock owners may change their disease management behaviours in response to comple...

Background: Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) causes substantial economic losses to cattle herds; however, control and eradication can be achieved by identifying and removing persistently infected cattle. Each UK nation has separate control programmes. The English scheme, BVDFree, started in 2016 and is voluntary. Methods: We analysed the test re...

The reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission from contact tracing applications (apps) depends both on the number of contacts notified and on the probability that those contacts quarantine after notification.Referring to the number of days preceding a positive test that contacts are notified as an app's notification window, we use an epidemiological mod...

In many countries, an extensive vaccination programme has substantially reduced the public-health impact of SARS-CoV-2, limiting the number of hospital admissions and deaths compared to an unmitigated epidemic. Ensuring a low-risk transition from the current situation to one in which SARS-CoV-2 is endemic requires maintenance of high levels of popu...

Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stocha...

The swift development of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines has been met with worldwide commendation. However, in the context of an ongoing pandemic there is an interplay between infection and vaccination. While infection can grow exponentially, vaccination rates are generally limited by supply and logistics. With the first SARS-CoV-2 vaccines receiving medical a...

In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in l...

Background To control within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England, secondary school pupils have been encouraged to participate in twice weekly mass testing via lateral flow device tests (LFTs) from 8th March 2021, to complement an isolation of close contacts policy in place since 31st August 2020. Strategies involving the isolation of close co...

As a countermeasure to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been swift development and clinical trial assessment of candidate vaccines, with subsequent deployment as part of mass vaccination campaigns. However, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has demonstrated the ability to mutate and develop variants, which can modify epidemiological properties and potentially...

As part of a concerted pandemic response to protect public health, businesses can enact non-pharmaceutical controls to minimise exposure to pathogens in workplaces and premises open to the public. Amendments to working practices can lead to the amount, duration and/or proximity of interactions being changed, ultimately altering the dynamics of dise...

Ongoing infection with, and associated viral reproduction of, SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the virus to acquire advantageous mutations, which may alter viral transmissibility and disease severity, and allow escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. The number of countries reporting Variants of Concern (VOCs) with such mutations cont...

Background The introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the introduction of several control policies to reduce disease spread. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening to certain year...

The rapid emergence of SARS-CoV-2 mutants with new phenotypic properties is a critical challenge to the control of the ongoing pandemic. B.1.1.7 was monitored in the UK through routine testing and S-gene target failures (SGTF), comprising over 90% of cases by March 2021. Now, the reverse is occurring: SGTF cases are being replaced by an S-gene posi...

Around 40% of school leavers in the UK attend university and individual universities generally host thousands of students each academic year. Bringing together these student communities during the COVID-19 pandemic may require strong interventions to control transmission. Prior modelling analyses of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within universities using...

By mid-May 2020, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1 June 2020. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening sc...

The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission—successfully reducing the reproductive number R below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible individ...

Background Even with good progress on vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK may continue to impose a high burden of disease and therefore pose substantial challenges for health policy decision makers. Stringent government-mandated physical distancing measures (lockdown) have been demonstrated to be epidemiologically effective, but can have b...

Universities provide many opportunities for the spread of infectious respiratory illnesses. Students are brought together into close proximity from all across the world and interact with one another in their accommodation, through lectures and small group teaching and in social settings. The COVID-19 global pandemic has highlighted the need for suf...

The swift development of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines has been met with worldwide commendation. However, in the context of an ongoing pandemic there is an interplay between infection and vaccination. Whilst infection can grow exponentially, vaccination rates are generally limited by supply and logistics. With the first SARS-CoV-2 vaccines receiving medical...

As a counter measure to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic there has been swift development and clinical trial assessment of candidate vaccines, with subsequent deployment as part of mass vaccination campaigns. However, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has demonstrated the ability to mutate and develop variants, which can modify epidemiological properties and the potenti...

Background The dynamics of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are complicated by age-dependent factors, changing levels of infection, and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as the perceived risk declines, necessitating the use of mathematical models. Our aims were to use epidemiological data from the UK together with estimates of...

The introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the UK government introducing several control policies in order to reduce the spread of disease. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening t...

Background: Strategies involving rapid testing have been suggested as a way of reopening schools that minimises absences while controlling transmission. We assess the likely impact of rapid testing strategies using lateral flow tests (LFTs) on infections and absences in secondary schools, compared to a policy of isolating year group bubbles upon a...

Objectives The Mathematical and Economic Modelling for Vaccination and Immunisation Evaluation (MEMVIE) programme aimed to explore, capture and support the potential contribution of the public to mathematical and economic modelling, in order to identify the values that underpin public involvement (PI) in modelling and co-produce a framework that id...

Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a “stay at home” order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an indefinite p...

Objectives The Mathematical and Economic Modelling for Vaccination and Immunisation Evaluation (MEMVIE) programme aimed to explore, capture and support the potential contribution of the public to mathematical and economic modelling, in order to identify the values that underpin public involvement (PI) in modelling and co-produce a framework that id...

The announcement of efficacious vaccine candidates against SARS-CoV-2 has been met with worldwide acclaim and relief. Many countries already have detailed plans for vaccine targeting based on minimising severe illness, death and healthcare burdens. Normally, relatively simple relationships between epidemiological parameters, vaccine efficacy and va...

Background As part of a concerted pandemic response to protect public health, businesses can enact non-pharmaceutical controls to minimise exposure to pathogens in workplaces and premises open to the public. Amendments to working practices can lead to the amount, duration and/or proximity of interactions being changed, ultimately altering the dynam...

Around 40% of school leavers in the UK attend university and individual universities generally host thousands of students each academic year. Bringing together these student communities during the COVID-19 pandemic may require strong interventions to control transmission. Prior modelling analyses of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within universities using...

Background Short-term forecasts of infectious disease can aid situational awareness and planning for outbreak response. Here, we report on multi-model forecasts of Covid-19 in the UK that were generated at regular intervals starting at the end of March 2020, in order to monitor expected healthcare utilisation and population impacts in real time. M...

The COVID-19 pandemic in the UK has been characterised by periods of exponential growth and decline, as different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are brought into play. During the early uncontrolled phase of the outbreak (early March 2020) there was a period of prolonged exponential growth with epidemiological observations such as hospitali...

For infectious disease prevention, policy-makers are typically required to base policy decisions in light of operational and monetary restrictions, prohibiting implementation of all candidate interventions. To inform the evidence-base underpinning policy decision making, mathematical and health economic modelling can be a valuable constituent. Appl...

The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission- successfully reducing the reproductive number, R, below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible indi...

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provides a key statistical tool for understanding the many quan...

By mid-May, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1st June. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is...

Background: Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a "stay at home" order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an...

For infectious disease prevention, policy-makers are typically required to base policy decisions in light of operational and monetary restrictions, prohibiting implementation of all candidate interventions. To inform the evidence-base underpinning policy decision making, mathematical and health economic modelling can be a valuable constituent. Appl...