Edward Glaeser

Harvard University | Harvard · Department of Economics

In this essay, we review the basic economics of housing supply and the functioning of US housing markets to better understand the distribution of home prices, household wealth, and the spatial distribution of people across markets. We employ a cost-based approach to gauge whether a housing market is delivering appropriately priced units. Specifical...

Expensive infrastructure is ineffective if it doesn't travel the last mile. In nineteenth-century New York and modern Africa, disease has spread when urbanites chose not to use newly built sanitation infrastructure to save money. Either subsidies or Pigouvian fines can internalize the externalities that occur when people don't use sanitation infras...

Are the well-known facts about urbanization in the United States also true for the developing world? We compare American metropolitan areas with analogous geographic units in Brazil, China and India. Both Gibrat’ s Law and Zipf’ s Law seem to hold as well in Brazil as in the U.S., but China and India look quite different. In Brazil and China, the i...

We study the tradeoff between megacities and networks of smaller cities in a model of recombinant growth and endogenous amenities. Three factors are key: local returns to scale in innovation, the housing supply elasticity and the importance of local amenities. Even with global increasing returns, local returns to scale in innovation may be decreasi...

There are persistent differences in self-reported subjective wellbeing across US metropolitan areas, and residents of declining cities appear less happy than others. Yet some people continue to move to these areas, and newer residents appear to be as unhappy as longerterm residents. While historical data on happiness are limited, the available fact...

Housing markets experience substantial price volatility, short-term price change momentum, and mean reversion of prices over the long run. Together, these features, particularly at their most extreme, produce the classic shape of an asset bubble. In this chapter, we review the stylized facts of housing bubbles and discuss theories that can potentia...

We analyze linear models with a single endogenous regressor in the presence of many instrumental variables. We weaken a key assumption typically made in this literature by allowing all the instruments to have direct effects on the outcome. We consider restrictions on these direct effects that allow for point identification of the effect of interest...

A modest approximation by homebuyers leads house prices to display three features that are present in the data but usually missing from perfectly rational models: momentum at one-year horizons, mean reversion at five-year horizons, and excess longer-term volatility relative to fundamentals. Valuing a house involves forecasting the current and futur...

Should China build mega-cities or a network of linked middle-sized metropolises? Can Europe’s mid-sized cities compete with global agglomeration by forging stronger inter-urban links? This paper examines these questions within a model of recombinant growth and endogenous local amenities. Three primary factors determine the trade-off between network...

Historically, urban growth required enough development to grow and transport significant agricultural surpluses or a government effective enough to build an empire. But there has been an explosion of poor mega-cities over the last 30 years. A simple urban model illustrates that in closed economies, agricultural prosperity leads to more urbanization...

Significance We identify several common genetic variants associated with cognitive performance using a two-stage approach: we conduct a genome-wide association study of educational attainment to generate a set of candidates, and then we estimate the association of these variants with cognitive performance. In older Americans, we find that these var...

Long before behavioral economists began to combine economic theory with discoveries from psychology, environmentalists were nudging and framing and pushing their cause through psychological interventions. These interventions appear to have changed behavior by altering beliefs, norms, and preferences. However, because psychological interventions are...

John Quigley was an important and beloved figure in housing and urban economics who died in 2012, but many non-specialists are only dimly aware of his contributions. This essay surveys his intellectual legacy, beginning with his early work with John Kain. Their research pioneered the application of hedonic price models to housing micro-data, and ki...

Gary Becker, who died on 3 May 2014 at the age of 83, redefined economics both in its methodology and scope. He radically expanded the sphere of economic analysis. As the range of issues and especially data in economics increased over the last half century, Becker's approach became more and more relevant and modern. He was awarded the 1992 Nobel Pr...

A dynamic linear rational equilibrium model in the tradition of Alonso, Rosen and Roback is consistent with many outstanding stylized facts of housing markets. These include: (a) that the markets are local in nature; (b) that construction persistence is fully compatible with mean reversion in prices; and (c) that price changes are predictable. Cali...

For over thirty years, Republican and Democratic presidents have required executive agencies to assess the costs and benefits of significant regulations, and to proceed only if the benefits justify the costs (to the extent permitted by law). The goals of the resulting processes have been to constrain unjustified regulation, to promote interagency c...

According to a standard principle in free-speech law, the remedy for falsehoods is more speech, not enforced silence. But empirical research demonstrates that corrections of falsehoods can backfire, by increasing people’s commitment to their inaccurate beliefs, and that presentation of balanced information can promote polarization, thus increasing...

In 1969, only 5.1 percent of American males between the ages of 25 and 64 were not employed, which was only slightly below the post-1948 average of 6.3 percent. In the third quarter of 2013, 17.3 percent of prime-aged American males were not employed, which is close to the average level of nonemployment since 2009. This remarkable change partially...

Why is prosperity distributed so unevenly across America's metropolitan areas? While population growth has gone disproportionately towards the Sunbelt, high-skill areas have experienced the strongest income growth since 1970. Gaps between more and less educated areas were modest forty years ago, but they have become quite large, and far larger than...

Objectives: We explain why traits of interest to behavioral scientists may have a genetic architecture featuring hundreds or thousands of loci with tiny individual effects rather than a few with large effects and why such an architecture makes it difficult to find robust associations between traits and genes. Methods: We conducted a genome-wide...

This paper reviews recent academic work on the spatial concentration of entrepreneurship and innovation in the United States. We discuss rationales for the agglomeration of these activities and the economic consequences of clusters. We identify and discuss policies that are being pursued in the United States to encourage local entrepreneurship and...

Many studies find that presentation of balanced information, offering competing positions, can promote polarization and thus increase preexisting social divisions. We offer two explanations for this apparently puzzling phenomenon. The first involves what we call asymmetric Bayesianism: the same information can have diametrically opposite effects if...

Why are public-sector workers so heavily compensated with pensions and other non-pecuniary benefits? In this paper, we present a political economy model of shrouded compensation in which politicians compete for taxpayers' and public employees' votes by promising compensation packages, but some voters cannot evaluate every aspect of compensation. If...

The great housing convulsion that buffeted America between 2000 and 2010 has historical precedents, from the frontier land boom of the 1790s to the skyscraper craze of the 1920s. But this time was different. There was far less real uncertainty about fundamental economic and geographic trends, making the convulsion even more puzzling. During histori...

This working paper seeks to determine the preferences of Boston parents for certain school attributes. It analyzes data provided by the Boston Public Schools and the Massachusetts School Building Authority to determine what factors are most closely correlated with popular schools in Boston’s public school lottery. The report finds that parents favo...

Urbanization almost invariably accompanies development, and the cities of India and China are experiencing spectacular increases in population. The concentration of millions of people in a small mass creates challenges for public policy, especially in the areas of basic infrastructure, public health, traffic congestion, and often law enforcement as...

Measures of entrepreneurship, such as average establishment size and the prevalence of start-ups, correlate strongly with employment growth across and within metropolitan areas, but the endogeneity of these measures bedevils interpretation. Chinitz (1961) hypothesized that coal mines near Pittsburgh led that city to specialization in industries, li...

This article reviews existing research at the intersection of genetics and economics, presents some new findings that illustrate the state of genoeconomics research, and surveys the prospects of this emerging field. Twin studies suggest that economic outcomes and preferences, once corrected for measurement error, appear to be about as heritable as...

America’s local governments spend about one-eighth of our national income, one-fourth of total government spending, and employ over 14 million people. This paper surveys the large and growing economics literature on local governments and their finances. A primary difference between local and national government is the ease of labor mobility within...

Will the Arab Spring lead to long-lasting democratic change? To explore this question I examine the determinants of the Arab world's democratic de…cit in 2010. I …nd that the percent of a country's landmass that was conquered by Arab armies following the death of the prophet Muhammad statistically accounts for this de…cit. Using history as a guide,...

Popular discussions often treat the great housing boom of the 1996-2006 period as if it were a national phenomenon with similar impacts across locales, but across metropolitan areas, price growth was dramatically higher in warmer, less educated cities with less initial density and higher initial housing values. Within metropolitan areas, price grow...

There are many possible ways of reforming the Government-Sponsored Enterprises that insure mortgages against default, including a purely public option, complete privatization or a hybrid model with private firms and public catastrophic insurance. If the government is sufficiently capable and benign, either public intervention can yield desirable ou...

Balanced budget requirements lead to substantial pro-cyclicality in state government spending, with the stringency of a state's rules driving the pace at which it must adjust to shocks. We show that fiscal institutions can generate natural experiments in deficit-financed spending that are informative regarding fiscal stabilization policy. Alternati...

A pioneering urban economist presents a myth-shattering look at the majesty and greatness of cities.America is an urban nation, yet cities get a bad rap: they're dirty, poor, unhealthy, environmentally unfriendly . . . or are they? In this revelatory book, Edward Glaeser, a leading urban economist, declares that cities are actually the healthiest,...

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Most of humanity now lives in a metropolis. That simple fact helps to fuel our continued success as a species

The most fundamental fact about rental housing in the United States is that rental units are overwhelmingly in multifamily structures. This fact surely reflects the agency problems associated with renting single-family dwellings, and it should influence all discussions of rental housing policy. Policies that encourage homeowning are implicitly enco...

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Technological changes and improved electronic communications seem, paradoxically, to be making cities more, rather than less, important. There is a strong correlation between urbanization and economic development across countries, and within-country evidence suggests that productivity rises in dense agglomerations. But urban economic advantages are...

Researchers have scrutinized foreign aid's effects on poverty and growth, but anecdotal evidence suggests that donors often use aid for other ends. We test whether donors use bilateral aid to influence elections in developing countries. We find that recipient country administrations closely aligned with a donor receive more aid during election year...

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One approach to urban areas emphasizes the existence of certain immutable relationships, such as Zipf's or Gibrat's Law. An alternative view is that urban change reflects individual responses to changing tastes or technologies. This paper examines almost 200 years of regional change in the U.S. and finds that few, if any, growth relationships remai...

Theoretical work on disciplining corrupt agents has emphasized the role of promised future rents (e.g. efficiency wages) but not of illicit future rents. Yet when opportu-nities for future rent extraction increase, agents should extract less rent today in order to preserve those opportunities. We study this "golden goose" effect in the context of a...

Protectionism is a costly mechanism to redistribute from the average citizen to special-interest groups, yet protectionist political platforms have a surprising popular appeal. At the same time, I present evidence of a Dracula e¤ect: protec-tion declines when public information is greater. I explain both facts through an electoral model with hetero...

At this year’s conference two panel discussions have been organized to address the most recent financial crisis and the associated policy implications. We recommend that you highlight your program schedule to ensure your participation in these engaging panel sessions.

Empirical estimates of peer effects vary widely in the literature. To better understand the conflicting evidence, we develop a price theory of social interactions in which peer group mem-bership is dictated by comparative advantage. Two key results emerge from the model. First, when comparative advantage is the guiding principle of peer group organ...

In this article the author examines aspects of U.S. housing policy in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. The author notes that between the years 2000 and 2010 the U.S. housing market underwent extremes of prosperity and financial failure as home prices rose precipitously, and then fell following the financial crisis. A number...

Between 1996 and 2006, real housing prices rose by 53 percent according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency price index. One explanation of this boom is that it was caused by easy credit in the form of low real interest rates, high loan-to-value levels and permissive mortgage approvals. We revisit the standard user cost model of housing prices an...

Why do firms cluster near one another? We test Marshall's theories of industrial agglomeration by examining which industries locate near one another, or coagglomerate. We construct pairwise coagglomeration indices for US manufacturing industries from the Economic Census. We then relate coagglomeration levels to the degree to which industry pairs sh...

Between 2000 and 2006, the CaseShiller/Standard and Poor’s Housing Price Index increased by 74 percent in real terms, as America experienced a massive housing bubble. Moreover prices in some metropolitan areas grew even faster. Prices in Los Angeles, for example, rose by 130 percent during this period while prices in greater Tampa rose by 97 percen...

Governments have responded to misleading advertising by banning it, engaging in counter-advertising and taxing and regulating the product. In this paper, we consider the welfare effects of those different responses to misinformation. While misinformation lowers consumer surplus, its effect on social welfare is ambiguous. Misleading advertising lead...

There is a strong connection between per-worker productivity and metropolitan area population, which is commonly interpreted as evidence for the existence of agglomeration economies. This correlation is particularly strong in cities with higher levels of skill and virtually nonexistent in less skilled metropolitan areas. This fact is particularly c...

When firms and people are located near each other in cities and in industrial clusters, they benefit in various ways, including by reducing the costs of exchanging goods and ideas. One might assume that these benefits would become less important as transportation and communication costs fall. Paradoxically, however, cities have become increasingly...

China urbanization is associated with both increases in per-capita income and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper uses micro data to rank 74 major Chinese cities with respect to their household carbon footprint. We find that the “greenest” cities based on this criterion are Huaian and Suqian while the “dirtiest” cities are Daqing and Mudanjiang. E...

Much of the inequality literature has focused on national inequality, but local inequality is also important. Crime rates are higher in more unequal cities; people in unequal cities are more likely to say that they are unhappy. There is a negative association between local inequality and the growth of city-level income and population, once we contr...

Employment growth is strongly predicted by smaller average establishment size, both across cities and across industries within cities, but there is little consensus on why this relationship exists. Traditional economic explanations emphasize factors that reduce entry costs or raise entrepreneurial returns, thereby increasing net returns and attract...

Why are some places more entrepreneurial than others? We use Census Bureau data to study local determinants of manufacturing startups across cities and industries. Demographics have limited explanatory power. Overall levels of local customers and suppliers are only modestly important, but new entrants seem particularly drawn to areas with many smal...

This paper assesses the contribution of employment location to neighborhood change and to gentrification. At the tract level, average household income change is positively correlated both with the change in average pay for nearby jobs and with the start-year average pay for nearby jobs. The relationship between employment location and neighborhood...

This chapter compares the risk factor profile of the population in the early 1970s with that of the population in the early 2000s and considers the implications of recent trends for future reductions in mortality. Understanding changes in population health is a key input into public and private decision making. People who live longer have more year...

Buenos Aires and Chicago grew during the nineteenth century for remarkably similar reasons. Both cities were conduits for moving meat and grain from fertile hinterlands to eastern markets. However, despite their initial similarities, Chicago was vastly more prosperous for most of the 20th century. Can the differences between the cities after 1930 b...

The degree to which the Social Security tax distorts labor supply decisions depends on the extent to which individuals recognize that future benefits are based on how much they worked. To measure the perceived linkage between labor supply and Social Security benefits, we administer a survey about the Social Security benefit rules to a representativ...

Introduction Estimates of the social cost of crime vary, but there can be little doubt that throughout the globe, crime is among the most damaging of social problems. Murder represents a squandering of life. The quality of life for many individuals is considerably lower because of the threat of violent and non-violent crime. Crime induces self-prot...

Empirical research on cities starts with a spatial equilibrium condition: workers and firms are assumed to be indifferent across space. This condition implies that research on cities is different from research on countries, and that work on places within countries needs to consider population, income, and housing prices simultaneously. Housing supp...

In 2003, Congress introduced new legislation to subsidize prescription drug insurance for Medicare recipients; Medicare "Part D" will cost nearly $1 trillion over the next ten years. In this paper, I analyze the incidence of this subsidy by inferring producer surplus from the stock market returns to pharmaceutical firms. I first obtain a measure of...

We study the effects of sticky content in a model in which commercial websites buy and sell links on each others' pages. Generalizing the PageRank-inspired approach of Katona and Sarvary, consumer browsing behavior is based upon a modified the "random surfer" Markov process in which the surfer's path is affected by websites' stickiness levels. We d...

When members of deliberating groups speak with one another, their predeliberation tendencies often become exacerbated as their views become more extreme. The resulting phenomenon — group polarization — has been observed in many settings, and it bears on the actions of juries, administrative tribunals, corporate boards, and other institutions. Polar...

Research on entrepreneurship often examines the local dimensions of new business formation. The local environment influences the choices of entrepreneurs; entrepreneurial success influences the local economy. Yet modern urban economics has paid relatively little attention to entrepreneurs. This essay introduces a special issue of Journal of Urban E...

Social capital is often place-specific while schooling is portable, so the prospect of migration may reduce the returns to social capital and increase the returns to schooling. If social capital matters for urban success, it is possible that an area can get caught in a bad equilibrium where the prospect of out-migration reduces social capital inves...

Should the national government undertake policies aimed at strengthening the economies of particular localities or regions? Agglomeration economies and human capital spillovers suggest that such policies could enhance welfare. However, the mere existence of agglomeration externalities does not indicate which places should be subsidized. Without a b...

Carbon dioxide emissions may create significant social harm because of global warming, yet American urban development tends to be in low density areas with very hot summers. In this paper, we attempt to quantify the carbon dioxide emissions associated with new construction in different locations across the country. We look at emissions from driving...

Like many other assets, housing prices are quite volatile relative to observable changes in fundamentals. If we are going to understand boom-bust housing cycles, we must incorporate housing supply. In this paper, we present a simple model of housing bubbles that predicts that places with more elastic housing supply have fewer and shorter bubbles, w...

In the United States, religious attendance rises sharply with education across individuals, but religious attendance declines sharply with education across denominations. This puzzle is explained if education both increases the returns to social connection and reduces the extent of religious belief, and if beliefs are closely linked to denomination...

What determines the enforcement of reform of business regulation? What are the outcomes of such reform? We address these questions using an episode of a drastic reform in Russia between 2001 and 2004 which liberalized registration, licensing, and inspections. Based on the analysis of micro-level panel data on regulatory burden, we find that: 1) On...

I examine the impact of taxation on family labor supply and test economic models of the family by analyzing responses to the Tax Reform of 1991 in Sweden, known as the "tax reform of the century" because of its large magnitude. Using detailed administrative panel data on approximately 11% of the married Swedish population, I …nd that husbands and w...

Urban economists understand housing prices with a spatial equilibrium approach that assumes people must be indifferent across locations. Since the spatial no arbitrage condition is inherently imprecise, other economists have turned to different no arbitrage conditions, such as the prediction that individuals must be indifferent between owning and r...

In the last 50 years, population and incomes have increased steadily throughout much of the Sunbelt. This paper assesses the relative contributions of rising productivity, rising demand for Southern amenities, and increases in housing supply to the growth of warm areas, using data on income, housing price, and population growth. Before 1980, econom...

More than 19 percent of people in American central cities are poor. In suburbs, just 7.5 percent of people live in poverty. The income elasticity of demand for land is too low for urban poverty to come from wealthy individuals' wanting to live where land is cheap (the traditional explanation of urban poverty). A significant income elasticity for la...

Recent studies provide conflicting evidence on the connection between ethnic or racial neighborhood segregation and outcomes. Some studies find that residence in an enclave is beneficial, some reach the opposite conclusion, and still others imply that any relationship is small. One hypothesis is that studies differ because the impact of segregation...

Economists and politicians have eagerly proposed policies aimed at stopping the decline in housing prices. The government can't and shouldn't be trying to stop price declines, according to Edward Glaeser of Harvard and Joseph Gyourko of Wharton.

This paper uses decennial Census data to examine the residential integration of the foreign born in the United States between 1910 and 2000. Immigrant segregation declined in the first part of the century, but has been rising over the past few decades. Recent immigrants tend to hail from countries with greater cultural distinctions from U.S. native...

220 million Americans crowd together in the 3% of the country that is urban. 35 million people live in the vast metropolis of Tokyo, the most productive urban area in the world. The central city of Mumbai alone has 12 million people, and Shanghai almost as many. We choose to live cheek by jowl, in a planet with vast amounts of space. Yet despite al...

Like all politics, all entrepreneurship is local. Individuals launch firms and, if successful, expand their enterprises to other locations. But new firms must start somewhere, even if their businesses are conducted largely or exclusively on the Internet. Likewise, policymakers at local and state levels increasingly recognize that entrepreneurship i...

The primary aim of the paper is to place current methodological discussions in macroeconometric modeling contrasting the ‘theory first’ versus the ‘data first’ perspectives in the context of a broader methodological framework with a view to constructively appraise them. In particular, the paper focuses on Colander’s argument in his paper “Economist...

Carbon dioxide emissions may create significant social harm because of global warming, yet American urban development tends to be in low density areas with very hot summers. In this paper, we attempt to quantify the carbon dioxide emissions associated with new construction in different locations across the country. We look at emissions from driving...