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Introduction
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Publications
Publications (26)
This paper examines the sustainability of subnational governments in Mexico, focusing on its top 110 most indebted municipalities. We employ dynamic panel data techniques to assess whether municipal debt remained sustainable during 2007–2017. Our study finds that the subnational fiscal position of Mexican municipalities remains sustainable despite...
The Wholesale Electricity Market (MEM) has allowed participants to trade electricity at Local Marginal Price (LMP); therefore, developing hedging models to face high volatility electricity prices and avoid financial losses has become essential. This work proposes a methodology based on the Seasonal and Trend Decomposition Model (STL) to the LMP ret...
This study aimed to investigate the impact of people’s sentiments toward border crossings on personal vehicle and pedestrian crossings along the US–Mexico border. This study focused on regional factors and employed data derived from Google Trends as a proxy for people’s sentiments. Monthly data from the first quarter of 2004 to February 2020 were u...
This paper examines northbound crossings of personal vehicles and pedestrians from Mexico to the U.S. Sample size from January 1997 to December 2019 includes the period after December 2006 when then inaugurated Mexican government announced the “war on drugs”. We construct a series of border homicide share, which stands for the allocation of homicid...
Purpose
Fama–French model (FFM) has been successful in helping to predict the financial markets, but investors have been interested in creating more sophisticated models to better predict the performance of the stock market. The objective of the extended version is to create a more robust econometric model to better predict the performance of the M...
This study analyzes the exchange rate pass-through effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Mexico's main border and 27 non-border metropolitan cities. The period examined includes monthly data from January 2002 to December 2019. A vector autoregressive model (VAR) is used, which includes formal employment at the city level as a proxy to economi...
This study analyzes the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows on the employment and wages of low- and high-skilled employees in the manufacture and service sectors in Mexico. The study implements a quarterly panel dataset covering the 32 Mexican states from 2005 to 2018. The econometric model is estimated throughout Fixed-Effects (FE) a...
We study the effects of homicide and kidnapping rates on firms’ employment losses, identifying metropolitan and non-metropolitan localities in Mexico. We use a panel dataset for 32 sub-national states organized on a quarterly basis over the period 2011:Q1-2016:Q4, decomposed by locality population size and firm workforce size, including self-employ...
This paper examines the northbound crossings of personal vehicles from Mexico to the U.S. A monthly dataset, from January 1997 to September 2018, is implemented for panel data methods with heterogeneous slopes. Controlling for national economic conditions, local labor markets, and dummy variables, the major results are as follows. First, when the p...
This paper examines the effects of drug-related crimes on employment in Mexico at the state level during the period 2005–2014. Results indicate that such crimes have a negative impact on employment. We are able to decompose employment into low-skilled and high-skilled employment, and results are heterogeneous among both types of employment. Results...
This work analyzes the role of oil prices in the variations of the sectoral economic activity in Mexico. The period analyzed is January 2002 to January 2018, in a monthly frequency. The proposed methodology is that of a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model for each economic sector. This model adds the following as control variables: oil pr...
The Mexican economy has been historically dependent on oil. For this reason, our research investigates whether oil prices influence the Mexican peso exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. The database is made up of quarterly reports, taken from 1991 to 2017. A Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was implemented, which included spot and future oil pri...
This paper re‐examines inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the 32 subnational Mexican states based on quarterly data from 2005 to 2015, which includes rising drug‐related crimes. We estimate our models using panel data methods by type of crime, state‐level indicators (real wages and electricity consumption), macroeconomic forces (the real...
This paper analyzes the variables of oil price, exchange rate and stock market index to explain how they interact with each other in the Mexican economy. The examined period includes monthly data from January 1992 to June 2017. A Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) is implemented that includes oil prices, the nominal exchange rate, the Mexican stock...
This paper examines the evolution of Mexico’s labor productivity (GDP per worker) across its 32 sub-national entities from 2003 to 2013, during a period of rising drug-related crimes. Using quarterly data and economic controls, fixed effects models suggest the effects of crime are small and differ depending on whether such crimes are prosecuted by...
The maquiladora industry has been a major economic engine along the US-Mexico border. For decades, economists have studied the maquiladora's impact on border cities. Using a relatively new dataset, we estimate that impact on US border cities from 2007 to 2012. For the border region as a whole, we find that a 10 percent increase in maquiladora wages...
The maquiladora industry has been a major economic engine along the US-Mexico border. For decades, economists have studied the maquiladora’s impact on border cities. Using a relatively new dataset, we estimate that impact on US border cities from 2007 to 2012. For the border region as a whole, we find that a 10 percent increase in maquiladora wages...
This paper explores differences in personal bankruptcy rates across the American states. Particular emphasis is given to the Veblenian idea of emulative consumption where a desire to “keep up with the Jones”’ results in over-borrowing leading eventually to bankruptcy. The paper posits an empirical model that incorporates a set of standard variables...
Reasoning that life in the U.S.–Mexico border region is sufficiently different from life in non-border regions this paper asks whether proximity to the border has a significant impact on presidential voting. County level data from four border states, California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, over five presidential elections, 1992–2008, are examin...
For decades, the maquiladora industry has been a major economic engine along the U.S.–Mexico border. Since the 1970s, researchers have analyzed how the maquiladora industry affects cities along both sides of the border. Gordon Hanson (2001) produced the first comprehensive study on the impact of the maquiladoras on U.S. border cities, considering t...
This article examines the relationship between state exports and job quality across the 50 American states. An occupational distribution index is calculated and used as a proxy for state job quality. An 8-year data panel is used to estimate the impacts of exports and several control variables on the magnitude of the occupational distribution index....