E. Hertig

E. Hertig
Universität Augsburg | UNA · Faculty of Medicine

PhD Geosciences

About

93
Publications
23,202
Reads
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2,241
Citations
Additional affiliations
October 2004 - present
Universität Augsburg
Position
  • Principal Investigator
Education
May 2001 - May 2004
University of Wuerzburg
Field of study
  • Climatology

Publications

Publications (93)
Presentation
Full-text available
In the current contribution health-relevant compound ozone and temperature events are analyzed by jointly evaluating elevated ground-level ozone concentrations and air temperature levels at a regional scale in Europe. A regionalization based on cluster analysis divides the European domain into regions of coherent ozone and temperature characteristi...
Article
Full-text available
Analyses of the relationships between climate, air substances and health usually concentrate on urban environments because of increased urban temperatures, high levels of air pollution and the exposure of a large number of people compared to rural environments. Ongoing urbanization, demographic ageing and climate change lead to an increased vulnera...
Article
Full-text available
High ground‐level ozone concentrations and high air temperatures present two health‐relevant natural hazards. The most severe health outcomes are generally associated with concurrent elevated levels of both variables, representing so‐called compound ozone and temperature (o‐t‐) events. These o‐t‐events, their relationship with identified main meteo...
Article
Full-text available
In this article, we present a method to determine the influence of meteorology and air pollutants on ruptured aortic aneurysm (rAA). In contrast to previous studies, our work takes into account highly resolved seasonal relationships, a time-lagged effect relationship of up to two weeks, and furthermore, potential confounding influences between the...
Article
Full-text available
While many authors have described the adverse health effects of poor air quality and meteorological extremes, there remain inconsistencies on a regional scale as well as uncertainty about the single and joint effects of atmospheric predictors. In this context, we investigated the short-term impacts of weather and air quality on moderate extreme can...
Presentation
Die Exposition gegenüber bodennahem, photochemisch gebildetem Ozon (O3), ist mit erheblichen gesundheitlichen Auswirkungen, insbesondere auf das Herz- Kreislauf- System und das Lungensystem, verbunden. Auch hohe Lufttemperaturen im Sommer stellen ein hohes gesundheitliches Gefährdungspotential (z.B. Dehydration, Hitzeschläge) für den Menschen dar....
Presentation
Full-text available
In the current contribution, a compound approach considering so-called ozone-temperature events is chosen by jointly analyzing elevated ground-level ozone concentrations and air temperature levels in Europe. A regionalization is conducted to divide the European domain into regions of similar ozone and temperature characteristics, variabilities, and...
Article
Full-text available
Within the scope of urban climate modeling, weather analogs are used to downscale large-scale reanalysis-based information to station time series. Two novel approaches of weather analogs are introduced which allow a day-by-day comparison with observations within the validation period and which are easily adaptable to future periods for projections....
Chapter
Der aktuelle Versorgungs-Report geht der Frage nach, welche Auswirkungen der Klimawandel auf unsere Gesundheit hat und welche Konsequenzen sich daraus für die medizinische Versorgung in Deutschland ergeben. Dabei bringt er die unterschiedlichen Perspektiven von Umweltepidemiologie, Medizin und Gesundheitspolitik zusammen. Expertinnen und Experten a...
Article
Full-text available
We estimate future changes in precipitation over the entire Indus basin of Pakistan with a particular focus on the high‐elevation Upper Indus Basin (UIB). A statistical downscaling approach is used. We consider the spatial variability of observed precipitation on seasonal scales. Large‐scale atmospheric patterns are employed for general circulation...
Presentation
Full-text available
The spatiotemporal characterization of concurrent occurrences and future frequency shifts of health-relevant, concurrent ozone and temperature events across the European domain. Main meteorological and synoptic drivers of these compound events are identified and analyzed.
Article
Full-text available
Statistical models to evaluate the relationships between large-scale meteorological conditions, prevailing air pollution levels and combined ozone and temperature events, were developed during the 1993-2012 period with Central Europe as regional focus. Combined ozone and temperature events were defined based on the high frequency of coinciding, hea...
Article
Full-text available
This paper introduces a straightforward approach to generate multi-model climate projections of intense urban heat, based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art global and regional climate model simulations from EURO-CORDEX. The employed technique entails the empirical-statistical downscaling method quantile mapping (QM), which is applied in two differ...
Article
Full-text available
We assessed maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures over Pakistan’s Indus basin during the 21st century using statistical downscaling. A particular focus was given to spatiotemporal heterogeneity, reference and General Circulation Model (GCM) uncertainties, and statistical skills of regression models using an observational profile that could...
Article
Full-text available
Air pollution and hot temperatures present two major health risks, especially for vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, and people with pre-existing conditions. Episodes of high ozone concentrations and heat waves have been registered throughout Europe and are expected to continue to grow due to climate change. Here, several different he...
Article
Full-text available
Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observa...
Article
Our climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. This not only has impacts on the planet and the ecosystem, with extinction rates rising rapidly, but also on human health (Figure 1). The effects of climate change are and will continue to disrupt the basic requirements for health such as clean water, clean air, adequate food and will furthermore ex...
Article
Full-text available
The machine learning models (MLMs), including support vector regression (SVR), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), boosted regression trees (BRT), and projection pursuit regression (PPR) are compared to traditional method i.e. nonlinear regression (NLR) in regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA). In this study, the Karun and Karkheh wa...
Article
Der globale Klimawandel ist eine große Herausforderung für das Gesundheitswesen. Das Folgenspektrum für die Gesundheit ist weitreichend und umfasst fast den gesamten menschlichen Organismus. So erhöhen häufigere Hitzewellen die thermophysiologische Belastung und die steigende Temperatur verlängert die für Allergiker bedrohliche Pollenflugsaison. Au...
Article
Full-text available
North Africa is considered a climate change hot spot. Existing studies either focus on the physical aspects of climate change or discuss the social ones. The present article aims to address this divide by assessing and comparing the climate change vulnerability of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia and linking it to its social implications...
Presentation
Full-text available
Frequency and intensity of combined ozone and temperature events in present and future Central European climate
Article
Within the context of analyzing daily heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing in the 21 st century, a new method considering non-stationarities in the relationships of large-scale circulation predictors and regional precipitation extremes was applied. The Mediterranean area was split into up to 22 preci...
Article
Full-text available
Relationships of larger scale meteorological predictors with ground-level daily maximum ozone (O3max) and daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) for stations in Bavaria were analysed. O3max and Tmax as well as threshold exceedances of these variables were assessed under the constraints of ongoing climate change until the end of the twenty-first centu...
Poster
Air pollution poses the single largest environmental risk to human health in Europe. Extreme levels of tropospheric ozone, representing one major air pollutant, cause a severe public health burden for the European population. Also, elevated temperature levels are recurrently associated with an exceptionally high mortality rate, only representing th...
Article
Full-text available
A main task of climate research is to provide estimates about future climate change under global warming conditions. The main tools for this are dynamic climate models. However, different models vary quantitatively - and in some aspects even qualitatively - in the climate change signals they produce. In this study, this uncertainty about future cli...
Article
Full-text available
Projections of seasonal extreme precipitation changes in eight Mediterranean subregions between the end of the twentieth and the end of the twenty-first century are analyzed using weighted multi-model ensembles. Weights are based on the performance of predictor variables in the scope of statistical downscaling. Two indices of precipitation scarcity...
Poster
Luftverschmutzung stellt eines der größten Umweltrisiken für die Gesundheit dar. Bodennahes, troposphärisches Ozon (O3) gilt als einer der schädlichsten Luftschadstoffe und ist stark abhängig von den vorherrschenden meteorologischen Bedingungen. Neben Ozon kann auch die Exposition gegenüber hohen Lufttemperaturen hitzebedingte Erkrankungen hervorru...
Article
The first part of the present study addresses meteorological and synoptic factors governing daily maximum 1-hour ozone (O3) concentrations in the city of Augsburg in the months from March to September. In the second part statistical models are applied to assess the association between daily myocardial infarction (MI) frequencies and ozone exposure,...
Article
Full-text available
To define a dry day, the most common approach is to identify a fixed threshold below which precipitation is considered equivalent to zero. This fixed threshold is usually set to account for measurement errors and precipitation losses due to the atmospheric evaporation demand. Yet, this threshold could vary in time according to the seasonal cycle an...
Poster
Full-text available
We investigate the projected precipitation changes of the 21st century in the Mediterranean area with a model ensemble of all available CMIP3 and CMIP5 data based on the four future scenarios A1B, A2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The Mediterranean region represents a so-called hot spot of climate change. Season-based analyses are carried out for eight Medite...
Article
Full-text available
In the present study the role of soil moisture (SM) in a statistical downscaling framework for precipitation in the Euro-Mediterranean domain is assessed. Different settings of the statistical downscaling models, differing in terms of the predictor variables used, are compared to quantify the influence of SM on the downscaling results. Results indi...
Article
Full-text available
To define a dry day, the most common approach is to identify a fixed threshold below which precipitation is considered equivalent to zero. This fixed threshold is usually set to account for measurements errors and also for precipitation losses due to the atmospheric evaporation demand. Yet, this threshold could vary in time according to the seasona...
Article
Full-text available
This study investigates the projected precipitation changes of the 21st century in the Mediterranean area with a model ensemble of all available CMIP3 and CMIP5 data based on four different scenarios. The large spread of simulated precipitation change signals underlines the need of an evaluation of the individual general circulation models in order...
Article
Full-text available
The spatial dependence of meteorological variables is crucial for many impacts, e.g. droughts, floods, river flows, energy demand, and crop yield. There is thus a need to understand how well it is represented in downscaling products. Within the COST Action VALUE we have conducted a comprehensive analysis of spatial variability in the output of over...
Article
Full-text available
Background In the scope of climate change the possible recurrence and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases poses a major concern. The occurrence of vector competent Anopheles species as well as favorable climatic conditions may lead to the re-emergence of autochthonous malaria in Europe and the Mediterranean area. However, high-resolution assessme...
Article
Non‐stationarities within the predictor‐predictand‐relationships can substantially affect model skill of statistical downscaling approaches. For this reason, an approach is presented which takes varying predictor‐predictand‐relationships explicitly into account. Seasonal aggregated daily precipitation extremes (90th, 95th and 99th quantiles) were a...
Article
Statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) are techniques used to downscale and/or bias correct climate model results to regional or local scales. The European network VALUE developed a framework to evaluate and intercompare SDMs. One of VALUE's experiments is the perfect predictor experiment that uses reanalysis predictors to isolate downscaling skill...
Article
Full-text available
VALUE is an open European collaboration to intercompare downscaling approaches for climate change research, focusing on different validation aspects (marginal, temporal, extremes, spatial, process-based, etc.). Here we describe the participating methods and first results from the first experiment, using "perfect" reanalysis (and reanalysis-driven r...
Article
Credible information about the properties and changes of extreme events on the regional and local scales is of prime importance in the context of future climate change. Within the EU-COST Action VALUE a comprehensive validation framework for downscaling methods has been developed. Here we present validation results for extremes of temperature and p...
Article
Full-text available
A major task of climate science are reliable projections of climate change for the future. To enable more solid statements and to decrease the range of uncertainty, global general circulation models and regional climate models are evaluated based on a 2 × 2 contingency table approach to generate model weights. These weights are compared among diffe...
Article
Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October...
Article
Full-text available
Temporal variability is an important feature of climate, comprising systematic variations such as the annual cycle, as well as residual temporal variations such as short-term variations, spells and variability from interannual to long-term trends. The EU-COST Action VALUE developed a comprehensive framework to evaluate downscaling methods. Here we...
Article
The complexity of the Mediterranean climate with its high precipitation variability and its unequal seasonal distribution with a wet season from approximately October to April and a dry season in summer set general conditions for a high vulnerability of the Mediterranean area to droughts. In the last few decades the risk of drought episodes appears...
Article
In the context of analyzing temporal varying relationships of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area and associated anomalies of the large-scale circulation, quantile regression models were established. The models were calibrated using different circulation and thermodynamic variables at the 700 hPa and 850 hPa levels as predictors as...
Article
A statistical downscaling approach allowing for change points in the relationships between atmospheric predictors and local precipitation is introduced. Change point analysis within generalized linear models, and change points in the predictor characteristics were used to develop a change point statistical downscaling approach. The approach is illu...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Climate protection and adaptive measures require reliable estimates of future climate change. Coupled global circulation models are still the most appropriate tool. However, the climate projections of individual models differ considerably, particularly at the regional scale and with respect to certain climate variables such as precipitation. Signif...
Article
Climate change projections are subject to uncertainty arising from climate model deficiencies, unknown initial conditions and scenario assumptions. In the IPCC reports and many other publications climate changes and uncertainty ranges are usually displayed in terms of multi-model ensemble means and confidence intervals, respectively. In this study,...
Article
Full-text available
The high precipitation variability over North Africa presents a major challenge for the population and the infrastructure in the region. The last decades have seen many flood events caused by extreme precipitation in this area. There is a strong need to identify the most relevant atmospheric predictors to model these extreme events. In the present...
Article
The Mediterranean area is strongly vulnerable to future changes in temperature and precipitation, particularly concerning extreme events, and has been identified as a climate change hot spot. This study performs a comprehensive investigation of present-day and future Mediterranean precipitation extremes based on station data, gridded observations a...
Article
Full-text available
VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. VALUE aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between climatologists, impact modellers, statisticians and stakeholders to establish an interdisciplinary downscaling community. A key deliverable of VALUE is the development of a syst...
Article
Winter precipitation in the Mediterranean area for the twenty-first century was statistically downscaled under the explicit consideration of nonstationarities. Nonstationarities arise from substantial modifications of the atmospheric circulation, which lead to significant changes of regional precipitation characteristics. For the detection of nonst...
Article
This study investigates whether a regional climate model (RCM) driven by a global general circulation model (GCM) in a nesting approach with observed atmospheric CO2 concentrations shows predictability for temperature and precipitation trends during 1961–1990 in the Mediterranean area, a region strongly influenced by large-scale circulation. Result...
Article
The concept of weather regimes represents a process-oriented method of organizing the varying states of the atmospheric circulation. We define weather regimes as preferred, or recurrent, circulation patterns. We use a suite of reanalysis products and general circulation model (GCM) simulations to assess the reproducibility and variability of the re...
Article
Besides dynamical downscaling by regional climate models, statistical downscaling (SD) is a major tool to derive climate change projections on regional or even local scales. For the Mediterranean area, an increasing number of downscaling studies based on different statistical techniques have been published in the last two decades with a broad range...
Article
Projected changes of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean area up until the end of the 21st century are analysed by means of statistical downscaling. Generalized linear models are used as downscaling technique to assess different percentile-based indices of extreme precipitation on a fine-scale spatial resolution. In the region under consider...
Article
Full-text available
The behaviour of precipitation and maximum temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area under climate change conditions is analysed in the present study. In this context, the ability of synoptic downscaling techniques in combination with extreme value statistics for dealing with extremes is investigated. Analyses are based upon a set of long-term...
Article
Full-text available
Our understanding of global climate change is mainly based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) with a relatively coarse resolution. Since climate change impacts are mainly experienced on regional scales, high-resolution climate change scenarios need to be derived from GCM simulations by downscaling. Several projects have been carried out over the...
Article
In the present study, nonstationarities in predictor-predictand relationships within the framework of statistical downscaling are investigated. In this context, a novel validation approach is introduced in which nonstationarities are explicitly taken into account. The method is based on results from running calibration periods. The (non)overlaps of...
Chapter
Future climate change over the Mediterranean area is investigated by means of climate model simulations covering the twenty-first century that take into account different anthropogenic greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. This chapter first gives some new insights on these projections coming from the use of new methods, including the coupling at the...