E. Gurvich

E. Gurvich
Economic Expert Group

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60
Publications
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689
Citations

Publications

Publications (60)
Article
The issues to be discussed at the panel included: can past experience of economy recovery following crises of 1998 and 2008 be helpful at present; what sectors were driving growth of the Russian economy in the last decade, and are they able to perform this role in the future; what growth rate is feasible in 2021; what amendments to the national pro...
Article
Recent decision to raise retirement age in Russia is compared with alternative ways of pension system adjustment to population ageing. We conclude that postponing retirement was superior in terms of public welfare as compared to increasing public spending on pensions or lowering pension size relative to wages. Unlike advanced countries, which apply...
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Article
The paper considers the evolution of pension policy in both developed and developing countries over the last 50 years. It demonstrates that drastic changes occurred in this area at the turn of the century, most likely explained with expectations of a marked acceleration in population aging. Reforms in the 1980s and 1990s were aimed mainly at increa...
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The selection of the trajectories of professional development by economic researches and economic analysts today is largely determined by formal criteria for assessing the results of their activity on the part of financing organizations. As has been shown in a number of works, such a formalized assessment may distort the incentives for studying the...
Article
The article studies the factors affecting formation of oil price forecasts by leading expert and official organizations (International Energy Agency, US Energy Information Administration, World Bank, OPEC, RF Ministry of Economic Development). It is demonstrated that all these forecasts take into account both oil market fundamentals and the current...
Article
The paper summarizes the studies on the mechanisms of Russian labor market. The subjects under consideration include unemployment and wages formation, relationship between key labor market variables and inflation, and labor market adjustment to negative shocks. We demonstrate that the general feature of Russian labor market is its high flexibility,...
Article
This article analyzes the impact of raising the retirement age on the Russian workforce and future economic growth. Combining our own estimates of labor participation and the demographic projections of Rosstat, we predict a marked fall in the workforce (by 5.6 million people during 2015–2030). At the same time, labor demand will also decrease, but...
Article
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We suggest a new way to identify salient features of the Russian labor market. Parameters of basic macroeconomic models pertinent to the Russian labor market are compared to a sample of other countries. We find that estimated values of Okun's coefficient and the elasticity of real wages to labor productivity in Russia are typical for emerging marke...
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The roundtable discussion held on April 12, 2017 at the XVIII April international academic conference on economic and social development (April 11-14, 2017, Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics) in cooperation with ARETT. In their presentations the participants of the roundtable considered the most serious issues related...
Article
The paper considers the impact of the increase in retirement age on labor supply and economic growth. Combining own estimates of labor participation and demographic projections by the Rosstat, the authors predict marked fall in the labor force (by 5.6 million persons over 2016-2030). Labor demand is also going down but to a lesser degree. If vigoro...
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This article is an attempt to find a grounded answer to the question of why many large-scale economic development programs worked out in Russia from 2000 through 2010 have failed to yield the expected results. To this end, the author has diagnosed the Russian economy, including a comparative analysis against 20 countries at similar levels of develo...
Article
In-depth analysis of international and Russia’s experiences with implementing fiscal rules is presented. Theoretical and empirical evidences are suggested in favor of retaining the present fiscal rules with some modifications aimed at ensuring: a) a relatively stable level of federal budget expenditure with guaranteed full execution of all commitme...
Article
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The paper looks into the impact of the Western financial sanctions on the Russian economy. The results of modeling of capital flow components (taking into account the influence of other factors, including the fall in oil prices) demonstrate that, apart from the direct effect of constraints on foreign funding for sanctioned state-controlled banks, o...
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The paper contains comparative analysis of macro policies carried out on the Eve and in the course of the three crises episodes (1998, 2008-2009, and 2014-2015). Efficiency of alternative policies pursued in these cases is indirectly characterized by collating sizes of adverse shocks, resources used by the government and the central bank, and econo...
Article
Elasticity of real wages with respect to unemployment is measured for Russia. The estimates are compared to those obtained for a sample of advanced and transition countries by other authors. In order to make our conclusions more robust 3 different specifications are used to construct 'wage Phillips curve'. One model draws on data by region, two oth...
Article
In-depth analysis of international and Russia’s experiences with implementing fiscal rules is presented. Theoretical and empirical evidences are suggested in favor of retaining the present fiscal rules with some modifications aimed at ensuring: a) a relatively stable level of federal budget expenditure with guaranteed full execution of all commitme...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines the impact of the current Western financial sanctions on the Russian economy. Modeling the capital flow components (accounting for the influence of other factors, including falling oil prices) reveals that sanctions have directly affected sanctioned state-controlled banks, oil, gas and arms companies by severely constraining for...
Article
We investigate the relationship between the key labour market indicators: productivity, real wages, and unemployment rate. The analysis is based on quarterly data for the period Q1 1995 to Q3 2013. The period free of crises (early 1999 to mid-2008) is additionally considered to check the crisis effects. We estimate vector error correction model (VE...
Article
Long-term trends in oil price are discussed in the article. We find out that both short- and long-term projections mainly extrapolate into the future current developments in hydrocarbon prices. Meanwhile both historical data and analysis of fundamental economic mechanisms reveal supercycles - price waves with large amplitude and length amounting to...
Article
The authors estimate the short-term and long-term relationship GDP- unemployment (employment). These are the first reliable and robust confirmations of Okun’s law validity for Russia. It has been shown that the reaction of unemployment to output decline is much stronger than the response to output growth of the same size. Cross-country comparisons...
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The problems underlying the current slowdown of the Russian economy are of a persistent nature and cannot be resolved with simple measures such as a softer monetary or fiscal policy. The fundamen- tal reason for these problems is the weak market environment dominated by public and quasi-public companies. A new growth model should be based upon stro...
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Russian Abstract: Сегодня практически все развитые страны мира пытаются найти ответ на новые вызовы, которые стоят перед социальными системами. Большинство из этих социальных систем сложились в периоды принципиально иных демографических, экономических, социальных и политических реалий, чем те, которые характеризуют современность. В те периоды продо...
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The recent slowdown of the Russian economy has fundamental roots and cannot be overcome by ‘simple’ measures like alleviation of monetary or fiscal policy. The major impediment to growth is marked weakness of the market environment, explained primarily with dominance of state-owned and quasi-state companies. Strong incentives for efforts to enhance...
Article
Russian Abstract: Цель настоящего исследования – разработка теоретических и методологических подходов к выработке долгосрочной социальной политики до 2050 г. В первой части препринта (разделы 1-3) изложены системные подходы к определению целей, задач, функций и содержанию современной социальной политике в мире и в России, а также исторические проце...
Article
The paper looks into emergence of external imbalances and economy’s adjustment to them. We find that Russian economy adjusts mainly via increase or decrease of domestic demand (resulting in substantial risks and losses of production), while capacity of adjustment via exchange rate channel is very limited. Another conclusion is that long-term growth...
Article
The impact of global aging on fiscal expenditure and possible ways to address this challenge are considered in the article. The authors conclude that if ambitious reforms are not implemented, relative spending on public health and social security may double by mid-XXI century. Pension reform should aim not only at avoiding excessive financial commi...
Article
The analysis is based on the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Individual replacement rates are estimated for the first time. Russian pension system proves to be oriented rather on social policy objectives than on smoothing consumption over the life cycle. The efficiency of pension system happens to be relatively low - for instance, ove...
Article
The paper suggests measures aimed at raising efficiency and long-term sustainability of the pension system. Pension contribution rate, amount of budget transfer to the pension system, and total size of pension benefits in percent of GDP are found to exceed substantially levels typical for the OECD countries and emerging markets. Our major " bottlen...
Article
Detailed estimates of the hydrocarbon rent for 19992009 are presented. Size, sources, and usage patterns of the hidden rent (which is not included into hydrocarbons prices, but provides the source of energy subsidies) are built for the first time. This part of the natural rent is estimated to vary from 8 to 17% of GDP. The largest losses in hydroca...
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This report is part of the study Managing the Crisis which assesses 14 governments’ response to the global economic and financial crisis between September 2008 and September 2009 on the basis of a standardized set of criteria.
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The paper evaluates short-term implications of pension reforms made in 2010, and long-term scenarios of pension system development. We find that if size of pension transfer is fixed, prolonged fall of the replacement rate is expected, which makes situation politically unsustainable. Keeping flat replacement rate requires either increase of pension...
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The article considers fiscal policy in countries that build on the use of nonrenewable natural resources. "Oil GDP," natural rent, and fiscal proceeds from the oil sector are estimated for Russia. These and similar parameters are compared across major oil-producing countries. An econometric procedure is suggested for measuring the overall impact of...
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The paper considers fiscal policy in countries that build on use of non-renewable natural resources. Size of the "oil GDP", natural rent, and fiscal proceeds from the oil sector are estimated for Russia. These and similar parameters are compared across major oil-producing countries. Econometric procedure is suggested to measure overall impact of oi...
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An important condition for the transition to the free float and inflation targeting regime is the ability of the Russian Central Bank to pursue an active independent policy of interest rate adjustment. The purpose of this investigation is to analyze the effect produced by the exchange rate policy of the Russian Central Bank on the money market and...
Article
The article presents an empirical investigation of the impact of the BalassaSamuelson effect on the real ruble appreciation in 19992007. We consider long-run, supply-side determinants of the real ruble exchange rate, such as changes in terms of trade and labor productivity. Using Russian and German data on price and productivity differentials betwe...
Article
We find that the present pension system is able to secure long-term formal sustainability. On the other hand, rapid fall of the replacement rate is expected, with the hardest period in 2018 to 2041, when ratio of average pension to average wage will be below 20%. Additional funds needed to keep this ratio at the level of 2006 amount to 2-3% of GDP...
Article
We find that the present pension system is able to secure long-term formal sustainability. On the other hand, rapid fall of the replacement rate is expected, with the hardest period in 2018 to 2041, when ratio of average pension to average wage will be below 20%. Additional funds needed to keep this ratio at the level of 2006 amount to 23% of GDP i...
Article
The quality of fiscal forecasts in 19992005 is examined. Substantial and systematic error in the key macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts is found. Independent forecasts generally prove to be even less accurate. One can conclude that fiscal planning was not based on conservative approach, envisaging purposeful underestimation of budget revenues. Full...
Article
In this paper the authors propose the model of agreement (financial balance) of macroeconomic forecasts, budget plans and balance of payments forecasts and the results of experimental calculations of this model for 20062008. The urgency of working out special instruments of such agreement is connected with increasing quality demands for medium-term...
Article
The impact of real exchange rate on the Russian economy in internal and external markets is studied. The analysis takes into account that imported goods are only partial substitutes for those produced domestically, as the former is comprised mainly by manufactures with diverse properties. Positive or negligible effect of real appreciation of the ru...
Article
Comprehensive analysis of stabilization fund design and management as a macroeconomic tool is suggested. Restrictions on the use of windfall revenues, stemming from fiscal and monetary sustainability conditions are presented. It is stressed that additional spending of windfall revenues inevitably results in real appreciation of the ruble. According...
Article
Specific requirements on macroeconomic policy, stemming from the impact of external volatility on trade balance and fiscal revenues are studied. Income gains or losses of the Russian economy due to variation in the commodity prices are found to range from -9 to +12% of GDP over the last decade. Contribution of the government and the Central Bank to...
Article
Russia's 1998 crisis and subsequent recovery offer valuable lessons for countries simultaneously facing unsustainable public debt dynamics and low international liquidity---a list that in recent years has included Argentina, Brazil, and Turkey. Lessons include implications for the appropriate design of rescue packages, moral hazard, and crucial fac...
Article
The paper analyzes, first, the contribution of hydrocarbon sector to GDP, export proceeds, and budget revenues, and, second, the impact of volatility of international oil prices on the Russian economy. It is found that the importance of the oil and gas sector for the Russian economy adjusted for changes in oil prices is steadily declining since 200...
Article
The paper discusses progress in the implementation of tax reform in Russia. It is argued, basing on theoretical and cross-country analysis, that fine tuning of tax system is a more appropriate major target of reform, than cutting overall tax burden. A simplified model of demand for labor is used to estimate impact of tax reform on GDP composition a...
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This study focuses on the 'hostage effect,' which enables a government to share the burden of crisis prevention with the private sector. In the most severe situations this mechanism turns out to be the only way for the government to mitigate the crisis. It is demonstrated that the crisis model accounting for the 'hostage effect' implies reversed lo...
Article
The study was aimed at forecasting interest rates of the Russian government securities. The system of simultaneous equations was constructed, including as endogenous variables GKO interest rate, interest rate for Russian currency securities, Central Bank refinancing rate, and expected exchange rate. The model’s accuracy proved to be fairly high on...
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The factors that determined substantial cross-country variation of output decline during the recent recession are discussed. The regression analysis is performed for the sample of 172 economies, as well as for the sub-samples of developing and oil-exporting economies. Regression results indicate that three distinct factors had a significant impact...
Article
The analysis is based on the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Individual replacement rates are estimated for the first time. Russian pension system proves to be oriented rather on social policy objectives than on smoothing consumption over the life cycle. The efficiency of pension system happens to be relatively low for instance, over...
Article
Full-text available
institution rather than subordi nate part of the budgetary system. The new stage in the development of the pension system was initiated in 2002, when the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) principle was supplemented with a funded component. We start with a brief outline of the Russian pension system on the eve of this re form, and then discuss in details possibl...
Article
Characteristics of the national fiscal system. Study of the Russian fiscal system 1 is largely constrained by the shortage of accurate estimates of its dynamics and structure. We calculated tax load indicators for the Rus- sian economy (see figure), which take into account the tax payments (including back taxes, fines, penalty duties, etc.) to the...
Article
The year 2006 proved to be successful for the Russian economy, as were previous few years. GDP volume grew 6.7% (as compared to 6.4% in 2005), labour productivity increased by 5.8%. Overall GDP growth in the last 7 years amounted to 58%. In the year 2007 GDP volume exceed for the first time the pre-reform level of 1991. Of special importance is acc...

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