Douglas Lee Van Bossuyt

Naval Postgraduate School | NPS · Department of Systems Engineering

This article presents an educational approach to applied capstone research projects using a mission engineering focus. It reviews recent advances in mission engineering within the Department of Defense and integrates that work into an approach for research within the Systems Engineering Department at the Naval Postgraduate School. A generalized seq...

In recent years there has been increased demand for readiness and availability metrics across many industries and especially in national defense to enable data-driven decision making at all levels of planning, maintenance, and operations, and in leveraging integrated models that inform stakeholders of current operational system health and performan...

Designing complex, socio-technical, cyber-physical systems has become increasingly challenging in recent years. Interdependencies between engineering domains can lead to emergent behavior that is difficult to predict and manage. The recent shift toward model-based design has demonstrated significant advantages for minimizing these challenges. Furth...

Current Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS) rely heavily on low-e ciency techniques such as broadband radio frequency (RF) jamming and high-intensity lasers. Not only do such techniques come at the cost of second and third order e ects-such as collateral jamming risks to operational systems, a large RF footprint, and high energy use-but they al...

In an age of worsening global threat landscape and accelerating uncertainty, the design and manufacture of systems must increase resilience and robustness across both the system itself and the entire systems design process. We generally trust our colleagues after initial clearance/background checks; and systems to function as intended and within op...

Microelectronics integrity is a critical issue for many industries including the Department of Defense (DoD). The military systems the DoD operates are particularly vulnerable to counterfeiting, with potentially costly or even catastrophic consequences. Counterfeits, regardless of production intent (malign or ersatz), raise significant concerns for...

The pending development of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) puts cryptographic security relying on public key cryptography at risk. Such cryptography can be found throughout systems today, including cyber-physical systems , which raises a question on when to transition security to quantum resistant alternatives, i.e., post-quant...

IN LESS THAN A GENERATION, ADVANCED MANUFACTURING AND 3D PRINTING HAVE OPENED UP A WORLD OF POSSIBILITIES LONG THOUGHT UNREACHABLE FOR LOGISTICS. THE CONSORTIUM FOR ADVANCED MANUFACTURING RESEARCH AND EDUCATION AT THE NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL IS LEADING A MAJOR EFFORT TO BRING THIS TECHNOLOGY TO WARFIGHTERS EVERYWHERE.

In the context of model-based product and system design, the capability to assess the impact of potential component faults, undesired interactions, and fault propagation is important for design decision-making. Addressing these potential negative outcomes should occur as early in the design process as possible to enable designers to make impactful...

This paper explores how reliability analysis and cyber-security analysis can be combined using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML), and Large Language Models (LLM) to produce a continuously updated resilience analysis. This is achieved by modeling both the hardware and software of the system, and employing LLMs and AI/ML to continu...

Condensers are critical to the operation of naval vessels that utilize the Rankine cycle for propulsion. Eddy current analysis is a nondestructive evaluation of the integrity of seawater tubes in condensers. Defects significant enough to be expected to allow seawater to leak into the steam side of the condenser prior to the next inspection are iden...

Risk assessment is an essential step for architecting the resilience (safety/security) of a mission critical software-intensive system as well as a regular maintenance procedures. It closely relates to estimating the (cyber) insurance needs of the system. Managing of cyber risk involves gathering threat intelligence, prioritizing the current threat...

Many systems engineering projects begin with the involvement of stakeholders to aid in decision-making processes. As an application of systems engineering, systems architecture involves the documentation of stakeholder needs gathered via elicitation and the transformation of these needs into requirements for a system. Within human-machine teaming,...

The emerging technology of quantum computing is a double-edged sword, prime for increased computing efficiency but also constituting a looming threat against many currently deployed cryptographic algorithms. In turn, the security guarantees of wider systems that rely on such security foundations are also at risk. Planning and preparation against a...

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries have begun to proliferate across the U.S. Navy eet, commercial shipping, and in many other naval contexts. Naval engineers must account for Li-ion batteries when designing new vessels to ensure safety and adequate integration of the batteries into ship electrical systems. is article examines current Li-ion battery usa...

GREEN AND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ARE JUST THE START OF RESILIENCY: SMART MANAGEMENT OF MICROGRIDS WILL HELP PROTECT NAVAL AND EXPEDITIONARY POWER SOURCES FROM ENEMIES BOTH NATURAL AND MAN-MADE.

Resilience, a system property merging the consideration of stochastic and malicious events focusing on mission success, motivates researchers and practitioners to develop methodologies to support holistic assessments. While established risk assessment methods exist for early and advanced analysis of complex systems, the dynamic nature of security i...

Military bases must be operationally available to complete their missions regardless of the operational and physical environmental conditions. A key component of maintaining operational availability is a secure and reliable source of energy, which is resilient in the face of a variety of possible threats both natural and man-made. Towards that goal...

Microgrids are used in many applications to power critical loads that have significant consequences if they lose power. Losing power to medical centers, water treatment plants, data centers, national defense installations, airports, and other critical infrastructure can cause loss of money and loss of life. Although such microgrids are generally re...

Islanded, renewable energy microgrids for use at remote operating facilities reduce logistical burdens associated with fossil fuel based electrical power sources and provide greater operational flexibility; however, energy generation can be intrinsically intermittent on renewable microgrids. This intermittent electrical generation can be mitigated...

This paper presents an original two-steps methodology to size DERs (Distributed Energy Resources) in stand-alone microgrids, to be installed in different areas, featuring different meteorological conditions, but same kind of loads. Design examples are simulated to analyze how an increased level of resilience, considered in terms of number of days o...

With the growth of autonomy and augmentation of machine learning in system decision-making, systems-of-systems (SoS) have become increasingly complex. Security and safety, as well as national economic stability, are reliant on interconnected systems with multiple decision making components. While such inter-connectivity advances the speed at which...

Existing counter-unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) defensive mechanisms rely heavily on radio frequency (RF) jamming techniques that require a large amount of energy to operate. The effects of RF jamming result in undesirable consequences, such as the jamming of other nearby friendly radio devices as well as the increase in RF footprint for local oper...

Critical system resilience is a focus point in risk management due to the severe consequences of system failure. As such critical systems become increasingly cyber-physical, cybersecurity vulnerabilities also play a more significant role in system analysis. Now, as the world turns to Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based solutions, the novel vulnerabi...

Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) methods have developed a strong foothold in the design space in industry. These methods have proven fruitful when the right method is applied to the right problem. Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) is an equally important area. Currently, there is a gap in applying a methodology to integrate...

With Industry 4.0 the immense progression of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology has introduced new challenges for engineers to effectively design human-automation interaction in autonomous systems that are mission critical. Although various autonomous systems are currently being utilized in mission critical environments, there is limited liter...

This research investigates the feasibility of using mobile hybrid microgrids to increase energy resilience in DoD Installations. The primary question examined is whether a standardized mobile microgrid, constrained within an International Standards Organization (ISO) Triple Container (TriCon) and not to exceed 10,000 lbs (approximately 4535 kg), ca...

This article details the preliminary design and testing of a Resetting Anchor/Antenna Tether Mechanism (RAATM) for an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The proposed mechanism is intended to enable an AUV to secure itself to the seabed, ascend, descend, transmit and receive signals via the tether, retract the anchor, and re-anchor again as requir...

Current Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS) rely heavily on low-efficiency techniques such as broadband radio frequency (RF) jamming and high-intensity lasers. Not only do such techniques come at the cost of second and third order effects—such as collateral jamming risks to operational systems, a large RF footprint, and high energy use—but they...

Incentive mechanisms are used to encourage a behavior. Incentive mechanisms can be reputation incentives (social standing risks and rewards), gamification incentives (game-based elements in non-gaming environments), and feedback incentives (verbal or text feedback). Previous research suggests that reputation and gamification incentives provide extr...

We propose a methodology to determine the impact of different potential mission scenarios upon energy resilience for mission-critical loads attached to a military base’s microgrid infrastructure. The proposed methodology applies to any installation with changing operational states that has energy-resilience requirements. The proposed methodology ma...

The historical failure data reliability prediction method commonly used by systems engineering practitioners has several limitations. Recent literature promotes the physics of failure reliability prediction approach and has seen limited adoption. However, there is limited guidance available to practitioners to determine when the historical failure...

Modern complex cyber-physical systems heavily rely on humans and AI for mission-critical operations and decision making. Unfortunately, these components are often “black boxes” to the operator, either because the decision models are too complex for human comprehension (e.g. deep neural networks) or are intentionally hidden (e.g. proprietary intelle...

The Department of Defense (DoD) is often exhorted to adopt best practices from industry, and more recently, innovation in software development as exemplified by Silicon Valley. Yet, the DoD is vastly different from industry in multiple aspects, and adoption of such practices is not as straightforward as in industry. This article investigates the ch...

The ability to provide uninterrupted power to military installations is paramount in executing a country’s national defense strategy. Microgrid architectures increase installation energy resilience through redundant local generation sources and the capability for grid independence. However, deliberate attacks from near-peer competitors can disrupt...

This article presents a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) methodology for the development of a Digital Twin (DT) for an Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) with the ability to demonstrate route selection capability with a Mission Engineering (ME) focus. It reviews the concept of ME and integrates ME with a MBSE framework for the development of the DT...

The proliferation of Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) capabilities in the commercial sector is posing potentially significant threats to the traditional perimeter defense of civilian and military facilities. Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) UAS are small, cheap, and come with multiple types of functions which have growing interest among hobbyists. This...

This article develops a method to model, analyze, and design military microgrids with the objective to improve their resilience in the face of disconnections from the larger electrical grid. Military microgrids provide power to installation and base facilities to enable base mission objective accomplishments that are related to national security. P...

This article examines the trade space between the resilience and cost of an island microgrid. The article presents two models for the resilience and the cost of the microgrid. The resilience model considers the invulnerability and recoverability of the microgrid and represents the power balance of the microgrid, energy storage, and maintenance poli...

Fuelled by recent technological advances, Machine Learning (ML) is being introduced to safety and security-critical applications like defence systems, financial systems, and autonomous machines. ML components can be used either for processing input data and/or for decision making. The response time and success rate demands are very high and this me...

We introduce a method to help protect against and mitigate possible consequences of major regional and global events that can disrupt a system design and manufacturing process. The method is intended to be used during the conceptual phase of system design when functional models have been developed and component solutions are being chosen. Disruptiv...

This paper presents a user-friendly design method for accurately sizing the distributed energy resources of a stand-alone microgrid to meet the critical load demands of a military, commercial, industrial, or residential facility when utility power is not available. The microgrid combines renewable resources such as photovoltaics (PV) with an energy...

Military bases perform important national security missions. In order to perform these missions, specific electrical energy loads must have continuous, uninterrupted power even during terrorist attacks, adversary action, natural disasters, and other threats of specific interest to the military. While many global military bases have established micr...

The advancement of information technology has increased the prevalence of autonomous systems within day-today activities. Autonomous systems save time for users, performing set tasks with increased speed and efficiency while simultaneously providing financial benefits. However, one of the biggest issues faced by designers and decision makers is the...

An open area of research for complex, cyber‐physical systems is how to adequately support decision making using reliability and failure data early in the systems engineering process. Having meaningful reliability and failure data available early offers information to decision makers at a point in the design process where decisions have a high impac...

Extensive research and technological advances have led to the evolution of autonomous systems. The world offers various autonomous systems while there seems to only be a trace of literature evaluating possible mission critical determinants that would affect one’s willingness to accept and adopt said autonomous systems. Developing SE approaches and...

The historical failure data reliability prediction method commonly used by systems engineering practitioners has several limitations. Recent literature promotes the physics of failure reliability prediction approach and has seen limited adoption. However, there is limited guidance available to practitioners to determine when the historical failure...

Designing and improving the resilience of complex sociotechnical/cyber-physical systems is not a simple task. Interdependencies between engineering domains can lead to emerging behavior which is difficult to predict and handle. Early identification of safety and security weaknesses of a safety-critical system leads to reduced redesign costs in late...

Systems engineering practices in the maritime industry and the Navy consider operational availability as a system attribute determined by system components and a maintenance concept. A better understanding of the risk attitudes of system operators and maintainers may be useful in understanding potential impacts the system operators and maintainers...

This article investigates the systems engineering issues involved in the design of microgrid systems for military installations. A review of how microgrids function including major system elements is provided from a systems engineering perspective for non‐microgrid experts. Specific issues that systems engineers are beginning to address and that re...

There is a significant delta between the acknowledged probability of potential mishaps under the current safety assessment approach derived from Military Standard 882E (MIL‐STD‐882E), Department of Defense Standard Practice of System Safety, and what is observed from actualized mishaps being reported. When assessing systems safety during the design...

Increasingly tight coupling and heavy connectedness in systems of systems (SoS) presents new problems for systems designers and engineers. While the failure of one system within a loosely coupled SoS may produce little collateral damage beyond a loss in SoS capability, a highly interconnected SoS can experience significant damage when one member sy...

Safety and security of complex critical infrastructures is very important for economic, environmental and social reasons. The interdisciplinary and inter-system dependencies within these infrastructures introduce difficulties in the safety and security design. Late discovery of safety and security design weaknesses can lead to increased costs, addi...

System of interest (SoI) failures can sometimes be traced to an unexpected behavior occurring within another system that is a member of the system of systems (SoS) with the SoI. This article presents a method for use when designing an SoI that helps to analyze an SoS for unexpected behaviors from existing SoS members during the SoI's conceptual fun...

Increasingly tight coupling and heavy connectedness in systems of systems (SoS) presents new problems for systems designers and engineers. While the failure of one system within a SoS may produce little collateral damage beyond a loss in SoS capability, a highly interconnected SoS can experience significant damage when one member system fails in an...

As complex systems such as nuclear power plants, naval ships, critical infrastructure, and other systems become more connected to the internet and digital control interfaces, the chance of a cyber attack causing physical damage to a system and failure of the system increases. In many systems, recovery actions can prevent an incipient failure from c...

A challenge systems engineers and designers face when applying system failure risk assessment methods such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) during conceptual design is their reliance on historical data and behavioral models. This paper presents a framework for exploring a space of functional models using graph rewriting rules and a qualitativ...

This paper presents a method of assessing cable routing for systems with significant cabling to help system engineers make risk-informed decisions on cable routing and cable bundle management. We present the Cable Routing Failure Analysis (CRFA) method of cable routing planning that integrates with system architecture tools such as functional model...

Through the application of statistical models, the active mission success estimation (AMSE) introduced in this paper can be performed during a rapidly developing unanticipated failure scenario to support decision making. AMSE allows for system operators to make informed management and control decisions by performing analyses on a nested system of f...

A challenge systems engineers and designers face when applying system failure risk assessment methods such as Proba-bilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during conceptual design is their reliance on historical data and behavioral models. This paper presents a framework for exploring a space of functional models using graph rewriting rules and a qualitati...