
Dirk WillenbockelUniversity of Sussex · Institute of Development Studies
Dirk Willenbockel
PhD University of London - London Business School
Research Fellow, Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex
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86
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Introduction
Additional affiliations
October 2006 - present
Education
October 1989 - May 1993
Publications
Publications (86)
Drained peatland currently contributes 7.5% of Germany’s total national greenhouse gas emissions. The National Peatland Protection Strategy adopted by the German government in 2022 recognizes that these emissions need to be reduced significantly to meet the country’s climate change mitigation commitments. The present study employs a global dynamic...
This study provides a forward-looking quantitative analysis of selected policy interventions that can contribute to promoting a transition towards a healthy, inclusive and nature positive food and land use system in Germany. The focus of the analysis is on two sets of policy measures that figure prominently in the pertinent current discourse about...
The government of Viet Nam is currently reviewing the Environmental Protection Tax (EPT) Law that entered into force in 2012. Among the reform proposals presently debated, suggestions to transform the fossil fuel taxation components of the EPT into a proper carbon tax deserve particular attention from a climate change mitigation perspective. The pr...
Investors in international agricultural research seek sustainable agri-food technologies that can potentially serve multiple objectives, including economic growth, food security, and sustainable use of natural resources. We employ quantitative economic models to examine the potential multi-dimensional impacts of agricultural productivity gains in t...
Food systems today contribute to and are confronted by a daunting array of challenges. To address them, policymakers and other decision-makers need to understand links and feedbacks between these various challenges – across space, over time, and across a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic dimensions. In this chapter, we focus on a relatively...
The effect of global diet shifts on human health, the natural environment, and the financial cost of obtaining food has been extensively quantified. The current study complements these quantifications by examining the economy-wide consequences of global diet shifts. We used a computable general equilibrium model to quantify the changes in employmen...
In recent decades there has been a sustained and substantial shift in human diets across the globe towards including more livestock-derived foods. Continuing debates scrutinize how these dietary shifts affect human health, the natural environment, and livelihoods. However, amidst these debates there remain unanswered questions about how demand for...
This report assesses the cost of adaptation to climate change across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options. We focus on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries. We link climate, crop, water, and economic models to...
In 2017–2018, a group of international development funding agencies launched the Crops to End Hunger initiative to modernize public plant breeding in lower-income countries. To inform that initiative, USAID asked the International Food Policy Research Institute and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service to estimate...
Throughout the entire history of agriculture over the past 10,000 years, including the period of rapid growth and intensification during the Green Revolution over the past half century, global mean temperatures have remained within a range of about 1˚C from current levels (Schellnhuber, Rahmstorf, and Winkelmann 2016). The 2016 Paris climate accord...
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00224-w
In 2017-2018, a group of international development funding agencies launched the Crops to End Hunger initiative to modernize public plant breeding in lower-income countries. To inform that initiative, USAID asked the International Food Policy Research Institute and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service to estimate...
African swine fever is a deadly porcine disease that has spread into East Asia where it is having a detrimental effect on pork production. However, the implications of African swine fever on the global pork market are poorly explored. Two linked global economic models are used to explore the consequences of different scales of the epidemic on pork...
We use IFPRI's IMPACT framework of linked biophysical and structural economic models to examine developments in global agricultural production systems, climate change, and food security. Building on related work on how increased investment in agricultural research, resource management, and infrastructure can address the challenges of meeting future...
In the context of the project Quantitative Foresight Modeling to Inform the CGIAR Research Portfolio, IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was linked to the global dynamic computable general equilibrium model, GLOBE-Energy. This linkage is documented here to provide a detailed account of the...
The study applies purpose-built dynamic computable general equilibrium models for Kenya and Ghana with a disaggregated country‑specific representation of the power sector, to simulate the prospective medium-run growth and distributional implications associated with a shift towards a higher share of renewables in the power mix, up to
2025. In both c...
The study applies a purpose-built dynamic computable general equilibrium model for Kenya with a disaggregated representation of the power sector to simulate the prospective medium-run growth and distributional implications associated with a shift towards a higher share of renewables in the power mix up to 2025. According to Kenya's current national...
This report provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options on the CGIAR’s SLOs (relating to poverty – SLO1, food and nutrition security – SLO2, and natural resources and ecosystem services – SLO3) in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate to 2050 as well as for key SDGs of importan...
The resolution adopted by the General Assembly of the United Nations on 25 September 2015 is symptomatic of the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus. It postulates goals and related targets for 2030 that include (1) End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture (SDG2); (2) Ensure availability and sustainable...
This study advances the state of the art in country-level computable general equilibrium analysis for climate change impact and adaptation analysis by incorporating forward-looking expectations. The analytic framework is used to explore the long-run growth prospects for Egypt in a changing climate. Based on a review of existing estimates of climate...
Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-...
This paper reviews the literature for a project which seeks to develop a new Green Growth Diagnostics methodology and apply it to countries in Africa.
Building upon earlier work by Willenbockel (2013; MPRA Paper No.51501), this study provides an extended ex-ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) assessment of the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement between the member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Communi...
This paper analyses the evidence on the impact of tariff reductions on employment in developing countries. We carry out a systematic review of the existing empirical literature, and include both, ex post econometric evidence and ex ante Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation studies. The synthesis of results suggests that the effects of ta...
As the global economic crisis unfolds, policymakers around the world are faced with increasing pressures to resort to protectionist measures in support of domestic producers. It is widely expected that pressures on policymakers to adopt protectionist measures will intensify as the crisis deepens. This chapter employs a global computable general equ...
Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have repo...
Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 205...
Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenerg...
Significance
Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In the nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade respon...
Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global...
This article compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two model families differ in their scope—partial versus economy-wide—and in how they represent techn...
This study provides an ex-ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) assessment of the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement between the member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community. The CGE approach enables a consistent integrated predictive evaluation of sec...
This study provides a computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation assessment of progress in completing the East African Community (EAC) Customs Union since 2007.
Two simulation scenarios are considered:
1. The removal of remaining intra-EAC tariff barriers imposed by Tanzania and Uganda on imports from Kenya, starting from their 2007 levels.
2...
Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes. Various impact studies have considered the effects on global food production and prices of projected long-run trends in temperature, precipitation and CO 2 concentrations caused by climate change. But an area that remains underexplored is the impact on food prices that may...
This study links a multisectoral, regionalized, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Ethiopia with a system country‐specific hydrology, crop, road, and hydropower engineering models to simulate the economic impacts of climate change scenarios from global circulation models (GCMs) to 2050. In the absence of externally funded, polic...
Vietnam is planning to implement a new environmental tax law in 2012. The objective of the study is to provide a predictive quantitative evaluation of the impacts of the
proposed draft environmental tax law of Vietnam on producer and user prices, sectoral output and employment, the commodity structure of demand, government tax revenue, CO2 emission...
This study develops a stochastic economy-wide framework for analyzing economic impacts from climate change and potential adaptation policies. For the stochastic analysis, particular attention is paid to the development of a prior subjective distribution of future climate outcomes. The approach is applied to Ethiopia. The results highlight the impor...
This study provides a systematic cost-benefit analysis of a community-based disaster risk management project led by Practical Action in two districts of Nepal over the period 2007 to 2010. Under cautious assumptions about the long-term impacts of the project initiatives, the overall benefit-cost ratio ranges from 1.13 to 1.45, while under moderatel...
Final Report of Package 2 on CGE Modelling, under the United Nations Development Programme Project Research on Fossil Fuel Prices And Taxes, And Their Effects On Economic Development And Income Distribution In Viet Nam.
The CGE analysis aims to explore the short and long run impacts of imposing
additional fossil fuel taxes and removing respective...
Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches det...
This paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to thirteen industrialised countries. We explicitly recognize the specificity of the exports between the emerging East Asian and industrialised countries and employ a generalized gravity model t...
This paper examines recent movements in domestic cereal prices in Ethiopia in light of world price movements and production trends, and then uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the effects of various types of shocks on prices, incomes and food consumption, particularly for poor households. Several basic scenarios are conside...
International trade is one of the main channels through which the global financial crisis hits developing countries. The recession in the ‘global North’ triggered by the financial crisis and the resulting slowdown of growth in other major emerging economies will generate declines in demand for exports from developing countries, along with a reversa...
As the global economic crisis unfolds, policymakers around the world are faced with increasing pressures to resort to protectionist measures in support of domestic producers. While observable recent protectionist trends are certainly a far cry from the spiralling protectionism of the 1930s, and the trade restrictions implemented so far are limited...
Changes in international trade flows and world prices are major channels through which the global financial crisis will hit developing countries. The recession in the ‘global North’ triggered by the financial crisis and the resulting slowdown of growth in China and other major emerging economies will generate declines in demand for exports from dev...
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
As part of a wider review of existing scenario analyses in areas with direct relevance to the future of global development, this paper focuses on two major recent studies: the scenarios contained in the UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) and the scenarios developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in support of the G8 Gleneagles plan...
Global trade is dominated by developed economies (the global ‘North’) and the majority of operational trade agreements involving developing or middle income countries (the global ‘South’) have included at least one developed country partner. Arguments that advocate pure South-South agreements as a preferable option for developing countries.have rou...
The article reconsiders the implications of the choice of pure social time preference for intergenerational equity in the presence of a time-consistent utilitarian social welfare criterion. The analytic framework is a setting with overlapping generations, lifetime uncertainty, population growth and technical progress. The analysis identifies upper...
Brazil’s trade with China has expanded at a tremendous pace over the past few years. Between 1999 and 2004, its exports to China have grown by 800 percent in value terms while the value of its imports from China has more than tripled. China is now Brazil’s third most important export destination and its fourth most important import source. While th...
After joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in December 2001, China was given 5 years to completely open up its banking market for international competition. Chinese banks have been renowned for their mounting nonperforming loans and low efficiency. Despite gradual reforms, the banking system is still dominated by state ownership and encapsula...
The misalignment of the Chinese currency exposed by the rapid build-up of China's foreign exchange reserves over the past few years has been the subject of considerable recent debate. Recent econometric studies suggest a Renminbi undervaluation on the order of 10 to 30%. The modest revaluation of July 2005 is widely perceived as insufficient to cor...
The misalignment of the Chinese currency exposed by the rapid build-up of China’s foreign exchange reserves over the past few years has been the subject of considerable recent debate. Recent econometric studies suggest a Renminbi undervaluation on the order of 10 to 30%. The modest revaluation of July 2005 is widely perceived as insufficient to cor...
In general equilibrium models with oligopolistic firms, equilibrium outcomes may depend on the choice of numeraire. When firms have the power to influence prices strategically, different price normalisations entail objective profit functions which are generally not monotone transformations of each other. Hence, under the assumption of profit maximi...
This paper reviews some of the theoretical and econometric issues involved in estimating growth models that include military spending. While the mainstream growth literature has not found military expenditure to be a significant determinant of growth, much of the defence economics literature has found significant effects. The paper argues that this...
This article reconsiders the relationship between government debt and welfare in a two-country overlapping-generations model with lifetime uncertainty and international product differentiation. It has recently been proposed that a higher steady-state debt level may be welfare-enhancing in this setting. It is pointed out that this proposition does n...
There is a widespread suspicion that traditional studies of trade policy reform under perfect competition miss a crucial part
of the plot by neglecting potential pro-competitive industrial organisation effects such as scale economy gains and price
mark-up reductions commonly emphasised by proponents of trade liberalisation and regional integration...
In order to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the robustness of the quantitative results of applied trade policy simulations to variations in the assumptions about firm conduct, this article provides a systematic synopsis of alternative formulations of imperfectly competitive supply behaviour in applied general equilibrium trade m...
In general equilibrium models with oligopolistic firms, equilibrium outcomes may critically depend on the choice of numeraire. When firms have the power to influence prices strategically, different price normalisations entail profit functions which are generally not monotone transformations of each other. Hence, under the assumption of profit maxim...
In order to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the robustness of the quantitative results of applied trade policy simulations to variations in the assumptions about firm conduct, the present paper provides a systematic synopsis of alternative formulations of imperfectly competitive supply behaviour in applied general equilibrium tr...
This paper surveys some of the theoretical and econometric issues involved in estimating growth models that include military spending. In particular, it critically evaluates the commonly used Feder-Ram model, detailing its problems and limitations and suggesting a more acceptable theoretical approach. It also surveys the econometric issues involved...
This letter points out that the problems Senhadji (Applied Economics Letters, 4, 23-5, 1997) attributes to the use of the Armington aggregator in CGE models do not arise, provided that applied modellers employ the calibration procedure for CES function parameters frequently described in the literature.
This paper addresses the question to which extent the prevailing modelling practice of ignoring foreign asset cross-ownership patterns in applied general equilibrium trade policy studies may give rise to distorted predictions. The analytic framework is a stylized dynamic two-country model with international capital mobility and intertemporally opti...
According to Baldwin (1992)[Baldwin, R.E., 1992. Measurable dynamic gains from trade. Journal of Political Economy 100, 162–174] trade liberalization induces a medium-run investment-led growth process. This note points out that Baldwin's own model would actually predict a significant initial drop in investment and aggregate income, when announcemen...
The present paper provides a critical reappraisal of Baldwin's contribution and subsequent developments in the literature on the predictive measurement of dynamic integration effects.
Calendar time has passed the 31.12.1992 deadline for completion of the EC internal market and although a voluminous body of literature has accumulated over recent years, the predictive assessment of the economic consequences of the Single European Market cannot be considered as a settled issue. The widely quoted estimates of the welfare gains from...
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of London, 1993.
Published in: IFO-Studien 40/1, 1994, pp. 23-42
The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the determinants of industry investment in West Germany. The traditional neoclassical theory of investment developed by Jorgenson1 among other economists does not provide a fully satisfactory explanation of the determinants of investment behaviour. The dissatisfaction is not based on the explanato...