Dirk Helbing

ETH Zurich | ETH Zürich · Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences

To improve the performance of systems, optimization has been the prevailing approach in the past. However, the approach faces challenges when multiple goals shall be simultaneously achieved. For illustration, we study a multi-agent system, where agents have a plurality of different, and mutually inconsistent goals. Taking decisions based on suitabl...

Since centuries, science has been a collective endeavor to create an increasingly better picture of the world, and scientific indicators have often served as a useful orientation. Recent developments, however, raise the question whether digital platforms create or amplify biases in science? Could this reduce our ability to observe, evaluate and com...

Converging technologies bring together digital, gene, bio-, nano-, neuro- and cognitive technologies. To many people, the novel opportunities arising from them may appear almost like science fiction. In any case, however, these technologies have fundamental implications for privacy and human rights in the emerging society 5.0, depending on their us...

Data-driven and machine-learning-based methods are increasingly used in attempts to master the challenges of the world. But are they really the best approaches to manage complex dynamical systems? Our aim is to gain more insights into this question by studying various popular reinforcement learning methods for traffic signal control, namely in disr...

Without the consideration of complexity science, many digital twins will not work well.

Current trends in urban planning aim at the reduction of space for private vehicles to promote alternative mobility, more diverse activities on streets, and reduced pollution for healthier cities. In our study, we evaluate a number of "what-if scenarios" of "city pruning" regarding traffic restrictions for Barcelona by means of realistic, agent-bas...

The technological revolution, particularly the availability of more data and more powerful computational tools, has led to the emergence of a new scientific area called Computational Diplomacy. Our work focuses on a popular subarea of it. In recent years, there has been a surge of interest in using digital technologies to promote more participatory...

Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, gene editing, nanotechnology, neurotechnology and robotics, which were originally unrelated or separated, are becoming more closely integrated. Consequently, the boundaries between the physical-biological and the cyber-digital worlds are no longer well defined. We argue that this technological...

After Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI), the subject of Digital Twins has emerged as another promising technology, advocated, built, and sold by various IT companies. The approach aims to produce highly realistic models of real systems. In the case of dynamically changing systems, such digital twins would have a life, i.e. they would change...

This preprint summarises some of the threats of dual and primary uses of digital technology and calls for a new paradigm for the digital society of the future.

Understanding the human factors governing effective information exchange is increasingly indispensable for the design of day to day human-computer systems. Moreover, effective information exchange becomes a matter of life or death during emergency egress. The complexity of an unknown environment and the unpredictable locations of hazards often prev...

Algorithms can endanger freedom and manipulate people. The discussion about this must not be suppressed. The original German version of this article was published by the journal "schweizer monat" in May 2022: https://schweizermonat.ch/der-mensch-wird-zum-datenpunkt/

This TEDx talk addresses the future of surveillance. The combined use of nano, digital, AI, and quantum technologies might lead society to a whole new level of surveillance. This would not only leave our privacy behind…

In the context of urbanization and a growing population, cities and citizens are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to social and environmental changes, ranging from natural disasters like earthquakes and floods to uncertainties caused by issues related to climate change and complex social dynamics or even pandemics. There have been many debates...

A science f@ction novel about what technology could do to us in the not so far future - or is it already happening?

The practice of participatory sensing for environment monitoring has rapidly evolved over the years. There has been a steady growth of citizen-based air quality monitoring projects that aim to build partnerships, knowledge-sharing platforms, awareness, and ultimately resilience to issues related to air quality. Whilst citizen science has reshaped a...

This is a science fiction that was inspired by scientific facts. It was written to make you think about the possible digital society of the future, if we don't make a better one...

After Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI), the subject of Digital Twins has emerged as another promising technology, advocated, built, and sold by various IT companies. The approach aims to produce highly realistic models of real systems. In the case of dynamically changing systems, such digital twins would have a life, i.e. they would change...

In a non-sustainable, "over-populated" world, what might the use of nanotechnology-based targeted, autonomous weapons mean for the future of humanity? In order to gain some insights, we make a simplified game-theoretical thought experiment. We consider a population where agents play the public goods game, and where in parallel an epidemic unfolds....

In the event of fires and other hazards, visual guidance systems that support evacuation are critical for the safety of individuals. Current visual guidances for evacuations are typically non-adaptive signs in that they always indicate the same exit route independently of the hazard’s location. Adaptive signage systems can facilitate wayfinding dur...

This study investigates various methods for autonomous traffic signal control. We look into different types of control methods, including fixed time, adaptive, analytic, and reinforcement learning approaches. Machine learning approaches are compared with the “analytic” approach, which is used as “gold standard” for performance assessment. We find t...

Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled nonlinear differential equations considering different states of health (such as susceptible, infectious or recovered). This compartmental modelling approach, however, delivers an incomplete picture of the dynamics of epidemics, as it neglects stochas...

Health data bear great promises for a healthier and happier life, but they also make us vulnerable. Making use of millions or billions of data points, Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are now creating new benefits. For sure, harvesting Big Data can have great potentials for the health system, too. It can support accurate diagn...

The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the “phase 2” of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restriction measures are progressively withdrawn, in order to avoid or minimize contagion resurgence. For this purpose, contact-tracing apps are bei...

The digital revolution has brought about many societal changes such as the creation of “smart cities”. The smart city concept has changed the urban ecosystem by embedding digital technologies in the city fabric to enhance the quality of life of its inhabitants. However, it has also led to some pressing issues and challenges related to data, privacy...

Visibility is the degree to which different parts of the environment can be observed from a given vantage point. In the absence of previous familiarity or signage, the visibility of key elements in a multilevel environment (e.g., the entrance, exit, or the destination itself) becomes a primary input to make wayfinding decisions and avoid getting lo...

City planners and urban policy makers require simulation models to understand, predict, design and manage urban areas so that cities can become more sustainable, equitable and efficient. Recently, the idea that one might build 'digital twins' of cities has captured the imagination of many scientists, engineers and policy makers. To unleash the full...

City planners and urban policy makers require simulation models to understand, predict, design and manage urban areas so that cities can become more sustainable, equitable and efficient. Recently, the idea that one might build 'digital twins' of cities has captured the imagination of many scientists, engineers and policy makers. To unleash the full...

Health data bear great promises for a healthier and happier life, but they also make us vulnerable. Making use of millions or billions of data points, Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are now creating new benefits. For sure, harvesting Big Data can have great potentials for the health system, too. It can support accurate diagn...

The current global systemic crisis reveals how globalised societies are unprepared to face a pandemic. Beyond the dramatic loss of human life, the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered widespread disturbances in health, social, economic, environmental and governance systems in many countries across the world. Resilience describes the capacities of natura...

Big Data and AI are being used to improve security and the state of health, nature, and the world. But they can also be used for bad, as shown by this preprint (actually it's just a note).

This paper discusses digital and/or participatory elements that could be used in decision-making processes, such as a participatory budgeting process. It contributes to the discussion about innovations in democracy. Placing humans at the center of governance, we argue that innovative elements should be evaluated by addressing the topic from the per...

Cryptoeconomic systems derive their power but can not be controlled by the underlying software systems and the rules they enshrine. This adds a level of complexity to the software design process. At the same time, such systems, when designed with human values in mind, offer new approaches to tackle sustainability challenges, that are plagued by com...

BACKGROUND . The increasing availability of digital data on scholarly inputs and outputs – from research funding, productivity, and collaboration to paper citations and scientist mobility – offers unprecedented opportunities to explore the structure and evolution of science. The science of science (SciSci) offers a quantitative understanding of the...

Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental modeling approach, however, delivers an incomplete picture of the dynamics of epidemics, as it neglects stochast...

Individual choices, if not sufficiently well coordinated, can lead to bad outcomes, such as systemic instabilities or failures, or “tragedies of the commons.” It is, therefore, proposed to use digital assistants to support favorable interactions and avoid undesirable ones. The invention discussed here describes ways to perform these tasks in a dece...

A multidimensional financial system could provide benefits for individuals, companies, and states. Instead of top-down control, which is destined to eventually fail in a hyperconnected world, a bottom-up creation of value can unleash creative potential and drive innovations. Multiple currency dimensions can represent different externalities and thu...

Over millennia, people have seen the financial system collapse again and again. It is, therefore, time to re-invent money and the financial system altogether in order to make them fit for the complex world of today. Here, it is described how the idea for a new socio-ecological finance system came about. Three main innovations are proposed: (1) a pa...

This contribution develops the framework of a novel, socio-ecological finance system that enables the incentivization of environmentally friendly behavior, socially responsible production, resource recycling, sharing and more. We call this system Finance 4.0—where Finance 1.0 refers to a physical coin-based system, Finance 2.0 to a fiat currency sy...

Participatory resilience of disaster-struck communities requires reliable communication for self-organized rescue, as conventional communication infrastructure is damaged. Disasters often lead to blackouts preventing citizens from charging their phones, leading to disparity in battery charges and a digital divide in communication opportunities. We...

This policy brief aims to promote a holistic mindset about the COVID-19 pandemic by 1) applying a complexity lens to understand its drivers, nature, and impact, 2) proposing actions to build resilient societies to pandemics, and 3) deriving principles to govern complex systemic crises. Building resilience to prevent, react to, and recover from syst...

We have had so much hopes in the positive potentials of the digital revolution, and the biggest threat most people can imagine is an Internet outage or a hacking attack. However, it appears that Social Media, once seen as an opportunity for fairer, participatory society, have (been) turned into promoters of fake news and hate speech. It also turns...

This study investigates various methods for autonomous traffic signal control. We look into different types of control methods, including fixed time, adaptive, analytic, and reinforcement learning approaches. Machine learning approaches are compared with an "analytic" approach, which serves as "gold standard" for performance assessment. We find tha...

The end is near… We have arrived at the end of the book, and it is time to summarize our findings and to wrap up. The great potentials of the digital revolution cannot be denied. However, we need to think twice how to use this technology, so it will be at our service and not endanger what humanity has built over centuries. The lessons of wars and r...

The invention of the steam engine turned the agricultural society—the “Economy 1.0”—into an industrial society—the “Economy 2.0”. Later, the spread of education enabled the service society—the “Economy 3.0”. Nowadays, the pervasiveness of digital technologies is driving another technological revolution, which is creating the “Economy 4.0”, which I...

Smartphones, tablets and app stores with almost unlimited possibilities have become symbols of the digital revolution. However, while these innovations make our lives more comfortable and interesting, they herald a much more fundamental transformation. Advances in digital technology now affect the way we learn, decide, and interact. By harnessing “...

The digital revolution produces more data, more speed, more connectivity, and more complexity. Besides creating new opportunities, how will this change our economy and our societies? Will it make our increasingly interdependent systems easier to control? Or are we heading towards a systemic collapse? In order to figure out what needs to be done to...

We are faced with the growing complexity and diversity of an increasingly interdependent world. But Big Data and Artificial Intelligence, while potentially powerful and useful, are not a panacea for our problems. The idea of super-governments or multi-national companies running the world like a perfect clockwork is doomed to fail. Therefore, we mus...

The technological forces unleashed by the “digital revolution” will fundamentally transform our economy and society within a very short time. We need to prepare ourselves for this transformation and the new era to come. In fact, we may just have 20 or 30 years to adapt. Even though we may dislike such socio-economic change, we will probably not be...

Complex systems can behave in unpredictable ways and cause a lot of trouble. But it doesn’t have to be like this. Their behavior depends on the interactions between the system components, the strength of these interactions, and the institutional settings. Consequently, for a complex system to work well, it is important to understand the factors tha...

Is democracy outdated, is it broken? Many people feel the current political system will not work much longer. Suddenly, we are faced with unsustainability, mass migration, terror, climate emergency, a financial system at the verge of collapse, and “Corona emergency”. Some have suggested it is time for a data-driven digital state, and China would le...

We often celebrate the introduction of laws and regulations as historic milestones of our society. But over-regulation has become unaffordable, and better approaches are needed. Self-organization is the solution. As I will demonstrate, it is the basis of social order, even though it builds upon simple social mechanisms. These mechanisms have evolve...

Almost every activity in the world now leaves numerous digital traces. What if a “wise king” or “benevolent dictator” had real-time access to all the data in the world? Could he take perfect decisions to benefit society? Could he predict the future? Could he control the world’s path? What would be the limits and side effects of such an approach? Or...

Having studied the technological and social forces shaping our societies, we now turn to the evolutionary forces. Among the millions of species on earth, humans are truly unique. What is the recipe for our success? What makes us special? How do we make decisions? How will we evolve? I argue that the particular combination of social abilities, diver...

Democracy and capitalism have been struggling with each other for some time. Wouldn’t it be possible to invent a new, digitally upgraded kind of capitalism that is aligned with the values and foundations of democracies? How would such a capitalism look like? What would be its elements? In this connection, I will discuss the monetary, financial, and...

Is democracy outdated, is it broken? Many people feel the current political system will not work much longer. Suddenly, we are faced with unsustainability, mass migration, terror, climate emergency, a financial system at the verge of collapse, and “Corona emergency”. Some have suggested it is time for a data-driven digital state, and China would le...

The great potentials of the digital revolution cannot be denied. However, we need to think twice how to use this technology, so it will be at our service and not endanger what humanity has built over centuries. The lessons of wars and revolutions should not be forgotten. We need technology that empowers people, while helping us to coordinate our ac...

The digital revolution is reinventing business models, reshaping economic sectors, and changing entire societal institutions. Big Data and Artificial Intelligence, profiling and targeting, and several other technological developments are now fundamentally changing the ways economies work. This contribution discusses opportunities and threats of the...

In a so-called overpopulated world, sustainable consumption is of existential importance. However, the expanding spectrum of product choices and their production complexity challenge consumers to make informed and value-sensitive decisions. Recent approaches based on (personalized) psychological manipulation are often intransparent, potentially pri...

The current COVID-19 pandemic potentially threatens the foundation of societies worldwide. Con-temporary globalisation has brought many benefits but has also increased the risk that hazards arising in one part of the global system will more readily spread to other parts. Societal resilience to COVID-19 refers to the effectiveness of the public heal...

"Digital transformation" sounds harmless, given that the explosion in data volumes, processing power and Artificial Intelligence has driven humanity and the entire world to a point of no return. We will surely see a new civilization, but we are at a crossroads. The future needs to be re-invented, decisions must be taken. After the automation of fa...

Abstract In this paper, we take a novel approach to study the empirical relationship between public debate in the media and asylum acceptance rates in Europe from 2002–2016. In theory, an asylum seeker should experience the same likelihood of being granted refugee status from each of the 20 European countries we study. Yet, in practice, acceptance...

Proponents of digital identification see the COVID-19 pandemic as a once-in-a-century opportunity, with a potential “jackpot market” of nearly eight billion people. In these dangerous times, using digital IDs to help control the spread of the virus and eventually to manage the distribution of a vaccine is often deemed appropriate and necessary. Thi...

Dense crowds in public spaces have often caused serious security issues at large events. In this paper, we study the 2010 Love Parade disaster, for which a large amount of data (e.g. research papers, professional reports and video footage) exist. We reproduce the Love Parade disaster in a three-dimensional computer simulation calibrated with data f...

Communication is crucial when disasters isolate communities of people and rescue is delayed. Such delays force citizens to be first responders and form small rescue teams. Rescue teams require reliable communication, particularly in the first 72 hours, which is challenging due to damaged infrastructure and electrical blackouts. We design a peer-to-...

Communication is crucial when disasters isolate communities of people and traditional rescue is delayed. Such delays force citizens to be first responders and form small rescue teams. Rescue teams require reliable communication, particularly in the first 72 hours, which is challenging due to damaged infrastructure and electrical blackouts. We desig...

In a so-called overpopulated world, sustainable consumption is of existential importance. The expanding spectrum of product choices and their production complexity challenge consumers to make informed and value-sensitive decisions. Recent approaches based on (personalized) psychological manipulation are often intransparent, potentially privacy-inva...

The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the phase 2 of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restriction measures are progressively withdrawn, in order to avoid or minimize contagion resurgence. For this purpose, contact-tracing apps are being...

The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the “phase 2” of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restriction measures are progressively withdrawn, in order to avoid or minimize contagion resurgence. For this purpose, contact-tracing apps are bei...

Dieser Gastbeitrag setzt sich mit ethischen Herausforderungen der Digitalisierung auseinander. Er wurde bereits vor der Corona-Krise verfasst, spricht aber Fragen an, die angesichts der dramatischen Ereignisse dieser Tage zu grossen Diskussionen Anlass geben.

The interaction between phenotypic plasticity, e.g. learning, and evolution is an important topic both in Evolutionary Biology and Machine Learning. The evolution of learning is commonly studied in Evolutionary Biology, while the use of an evolutionary process to improve learning is of interest to the field of Machine Learning. This paper takes a d...

The ability to track and monitor relevant and important news in real-time is of crucial interest in multiple industrial sectors. In this work, we focus on cryptocurrency news, which recently became of emerging interest to the general and financial audience. In order to track popular news in real-time, we (i) match news from the web with tweets from...

The ability to track and monitor relevant and important news in real-time is of crucial interest in multiple industrial sectors. In this work, we focus on the set of cryptocurrency news, which recently became of emerging interest to the general and financial audience. In order to track relevant news in real-time, we (i) match news from the web with...

China's New Silk Road (aka Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)) will invest a 1 trillion USD budget across Asia, Africa and Europe. As BRI wants to contribute also to sustainable development, the authors argue that only open digital participation of all citizens, corporations and governments and the collective intelligence, collaborative innovation and...

The political utopias facilitated by the Internet and social media have faded. However, the true digital revolution is yet to come—one that combines prosperity, sustainability and peace.

The world is running into great trouble. The Anthropocene challenges (including climate change, impending resource shortages, demographic change, conflict, financial and economic crises) call for entirely new answers. As a result, we are now seeing the emergence of data-driven societies around the globe. Feudalism 2.0, fascism 2.0, communism 2.0, s...

Artificial Intelligence (AI) can help us in many ways. Particularly when combined with robotics, AI can make our everyday life more comfortable (e.g. clean our home). It can perform hard, dangerous and boring work for us. It can help us to save lives and cope with disasters more successfully. It can support patients and elderly people. It can suppo...

Blockchain technology may be the basis of the next step in human, social, and cultural evolution.

Can we still stop a world of technological totalitarianism?

With big data, we can multiply our options and filter out things we don’t want to see. But there is much to be said for making discoveries through pure serendipity: contingency and randomness often furnish the transformational or counterintuitive ideas that propel humanity forward.

Digital technology has reached a supremacy and momentum hardly comparable with previous inventions. Even earlier game changers in the history of man such as the industrialization appear less impactful compared to the digital revolution. Both, utopian and dystopian futures appear possible. Therefore, rather than using big data and artificial intelli...

Our innovation system has terribly failed. It is well designed to support gradual improvements of our knowledge and technologies. But it does not support disruptive innovations well, which would create new qualities and functionalities, or question the basis of our established knowledge and routines. Moreover, our knowledge does not keep up anymore...