Dirk G. Baur

University of Western Australia | UWA · Department of Accounting and Finance

This study highlights a special feature of cryptocurrency trading and offers information about investor behavior that cannot be observed in traditional financial markets. We find that investors prefer holding bitcoin off exchanges in private wallets and primarily use exchanges to trade. Consequently, bitcoin exchange reserve changes resulting from...

This paper analyses the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the share prices of three different types of gold firms - explorers, developers and producers. Despite the fundamental link of these companies to gold price movements and gold’s relative strength during the COVID outbreak, we find a COVID-induced decoupling of gold companies from the pri...

The Bitcoin futures market has grown rapidly since its 2017 introduction. Along with enabling institutional traders to access a regulated cryptocurrency product, futures provide a means to improve market efficiency by shorting Bitcoin. We examine trading behavior in Bitcoin futures utilizing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Tr...

A large literature tests whether Bitcoin can hedge portfolio risk, i.e. reduce the risk if added to a portfolio. Intuitively, given the extreme volatility and thus risk of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, the idea that Bitcoin is a hedge may be puzzling. Indeed, we show that for extreme levels of volatility, Bitcoin does not reduce the risk if added t...

Bitcoin is designed as a peer-to-peer cash system. To work as a currency, it must be stable or be backed by a government. In this paper, we show that the volatility of Bitcoin prices is extreme and almost 10 times higher than the volatility of major exchange rates (US dollar against the euro and the yen). The excess volatility even adversely affect...

The Anna Karenina principle (AKP) based on the opening line of Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina, “All happy families are all alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way” is applied to financial markets. We test the AKP by defining happy firms as positive return firms and unhappy firms as negative return firms and analyze whether happy firms are...

Climate-related criticism of Bitcoin is primarily based on the network's absolute carbon emissions, without considering its market value. Taking a relative emission perspective and utilizing the mean–variance portfolio optimization framework, we study the financial and carbon-related implications of Bitcoin investments. The results of our in-sample...

Bitcoin is regularly referred to as new gold, digital gold or gold 2.0. If Bitcoin is indeed gold-like the correlation of Bitcoin and gold returns should be positive. We estimate the correlation of the two assets across time, across different return frequencies and across quantiles and find a near-zero correlation inconsistent with the claimed simi...

There is a large and growing literature on spillovers but no study that systematically evaluates the importance of spillovers for portfolio management. This paper provides such an analysis and demonstrates that spillovers are fully embedded in estimates of expected returns, variances, and correlations and that estimation of spillovers is not necess...

This paper analyzes the stability of stablecoins and proposes a framework to test for absolute and relative stability of stablecoins. Based on high-frequency data, we find strong evidence of excess price variations. While Bitcoin is a likely source of this excess volatility because stablecoin returns, volatility and volumes are highly correlated wi...

This paper proposes a quantile regression approach to identify safe haven assets and to characterize in detail their relationship with the market. We analyze the returns of potential safe haven assets conditional on all market conditions including periods of financial turmoil and find a trade-off, i.e., in-crisis positive performance of safe haven...

The time between order submission and order confirmation is crucial for high frequency traders as they risk slippage when latency is too high. We hypothesize that high latency in cryptocurrency markets implies correlations well below one across exchanges at high frequencies. To evaluate this conjecture, we measure the correlation of returns across...

We propose to estimate the conditional variance of a time series of financial returns through a quantile autoregressive (AR) model and demonstrate that it contains all information commonly captured in two separate equations for the mean and variance of a generalized AR conditional heteroscedasticity-type model. We show that the inter-quantile range...

Gold is a globally traded asset and held in large quantities by investors and central banks. Since there is no established model to assess whether the price of gold is overvalued or undervalued, we propose a relative valuation framework based on gold price ratios. This idea is not confined to gold but offers the foundation for relative valuation of...

Gold is a well-known diversifier of financial risk with a long history as a physical asset. This paper analyzes whether gold provides additional environmental benefits in the portfolio context. We show that the addition of gold to a diversified equity portfolio does not only enhance the risk-return relationship but also its sustainability by reduci...

We use high-frequency intra-day gold and S&P500 data covering the period from 2007 to 2018 to investigate when and how fast gold prices react to extreme negative shocks in the equity market. Our empirical analysis reveals three new features of gold: First, extreme negative 5-min S&P500 returns lead to a positive reaction of the gold price. Second,...

Climate-related criticism toward Bitcoin is primarily based on the network’s absolute carbon emissions without consideration of Bitcoin’s market value. Taking a relative emission perspective and utilizing the mean–variance portfolio optimization framework, we study the financial and carbon implications of Bitcoin investments. Our results show that...

In December 2017, both the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced futures contracts on bitcoin. We investigate to what extent they provide useful information for the price discovery of bitcoin. We rely on the information share methodology of Hasbrouck (1995, J Finance, 50, pp. 1175–1199) and Gonzalo and Grange...

This article analyzes asymmetric volatility effects for the 20 largest cryptocurrencies and reports a very different asymmetry compared to equity markets: positive shocks increase the volatility by more than negative shocks. We explain this atypical effect for financial assets with trading activity of uninformed noise traders for positive shocks an...

There is a well documented asymmetric return-volatility effect of equity returns, that is, negative shocks increase volatility by more than positive shocks. This paper analyzes the return-volatility relationship of commodity prices and finds a positive (inverted) asymmetric effect with a tendency to weaken and converge towards an equity-like effect...

This paper demonstrates that the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis constitutes a special case in the contagion literature with general implications. Perfectly correlated bond markets imply that contagion can only occur if there is a decoupling to lower correlation levels with increased idiosyncratic shocks leading to more severe but less systemic spil...

We use a leveraged quantile heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility to illustrate that volatility persistence and the asymmetric “leverage” effect are high volatility phenomena. More specifically, we find that (i) low volatility is not persistent, but high volatility all the more, even featuring properties of explosive processes;...

In December 2017, both the CBOE and the CME introduced futures on Bitcoin. We investigate to what extent the introduction of futures contracts provides useful information for the price discovery of Bitcoin. We rely on the information share methodology of Hasbrouck (1995) and Gonzalo and Granger (1995) and find that the spot price leads the futures...

This paper analyzes the evolution of Australian property prices, the relationships between cities, houses and units, the stock market and monetary policy. Using monthly house and unit prices for all eight capital cities we identify extended periods of explosive positive price changes followed by comparatively small corrections and no crashes. A com...

This paper studies investor's attention to gold price movements by analyzing the relationship between gold price changes and internet search queries for gold. We find a positive relationship of gold price volatility and search queries and a strong asymmetric effect of negative gold price changes on search queries indicating a preference to mine (go...

Gold is special as it is influenced by a wide range of factors such as commodity prices, interest rates, inflation expectations, exchange rate changes and stock market volatility. Hence, forecasting the price of gold is a difficult task and the main problem a researcher faces is to select the relevant regressors at each point in time. This model un...

Gold has been a store of value for centuries and a safe haven for investors in the past decades. However, the increased investment in gold for speculative or hedging purposes has changed the safe haven property. We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that investor behaviour has the potential to destroy the safe haven property of gold. The res...

Gold is a prominent safe haven asset but risky compared to other safe haven assets such as US government bonds. We identify unique features of gold that explain why investors under stress buy the riskier alternative gold. We argue that the decision to buy gold is rooted in behavioral biases associated with gold’s history as a currency, a store of v...

Article published as "A Quantile Regression Approach to Estimate the Variance of Financial Returns" in Journal of Financial Econometrics https://academic.oup.com/jfec/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jjfinec/nby026/5181405?guestAccessKey=6deaac67-da23-44d4-9891-aeef6b69451f Working paper version available at SSRN https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers...

In this paper we use a recently developed econometric test to identify bubble-like price behaviour in the gold market. We find that the price of gold followed an explosive price process between 2002 and 2012 and exhibited super-exponential growth between 2002 and 2008, indicating excessive speculative trading and exuberance in the gold market. We a...

In this paper, we propose novel predictor variables for forecasting stock market returns. We investigate the predictive power of the demand for gold coins and bars as a proxy for the risk premium consistent with the safe haven property of gold. The gold demand variables reflect the behaviour of retail investors and thus also represent a new class o...

This paper studies the exposure of Australian gold mining firms to changes in the gold price. We use a theoretical framework to formulate testable hypotheses regarding the gold exposure of gold mining firms. The empirical analysis based on all gold mining firms in the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index for the period from January 1980 to December 20...

The increase in the price of gold between 2002 and 2011 appears to be a candidate for a potential asset price ‘bubble’, suggesting that chartists (feedback traders) were highly active in the gold market during this period. Hence, this paper develops and tests empirically several models incorporating heterogeneous expectations of agents, specificall...

In this paper we analyze the link between stock market performance and macroeconomic performance for a large number of countries. We study the short-run and long-run relationships and find that stock market returns do not coherently predict future macroeconomic changes for the majority of countries, i.e. the estimates vary considerably both across...

The price of gold is influenced by a wide range of local and global factors such as commodity prices, interest rates, inflation expectations, exchange rate changes and stock market volatility among others. Hence, forecasting the price of gold is a notoriously difficult task and the main problem a researcher faces is to select the relevant regressor...

Financial crises and contagion have highlighted the need for safe haven assets. However, their existence, role and interactions are not well understood. We analyze the two most prominent yet fundamentally different safe haven assets, US government bonds and gold. Our econometric analysis explicitly models the dynamic interaction between these asset...

In this paper we perform a theoretical and econometric analysis of the fundamental drivers of gold. We demonstrate that gold is significantly influenced by inflation changes, interest rates, currency changes and central bank reserve policies. A key finding is that the influence of the drivers varies through time, e.g. inflation is a major driver in...

In this paper we analyze the influence of currency movements on the value of Australian firms listed on the S&P/ASX 100 index for a period from 1980 - 2010 using daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly returns. The study estimates unconditional and conditional, time-varying and asymmetric, exchange rate exposure. We find a strong cross-sectional dispe...

The copula function defines the degree of dependence and the structure of dependence. This paper proposes an alternative framework to decompose the dependence using quantile regression. We demonstrate that the methodology provides a detailed picture of dependence including asymmetric and non-linear relationships. In addition, changes in the degree...

This paper studies recurring annual events potentially introducing seasonality into gold prices. We analyze gold returns for each month from 1980 to 2010 and find that September and November are the only months with positive and statistically significant gold price changes. This “autumn effect” holds unconditionally and conditional on several risk...

An increasing price of gold provides signals about the value of fiat money and can influence inflation expectations and bond yields. Central banks therefore have an interest in gold price movements. This paper summarizes the main arguments for gold price manipulation and replicates the statistical analysis commonly used to support the manipulation...

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on indices provide access to a diversified portfolio of assets at a low cost. Whilst ETFs on single commodities have less obvious advantages its number has grown substantially in recent years. This paper analyzes the benefits and risks of single-asset ETFs theoretically and empirically using more than 80 physical and sy...

The correlation between equity returns and currency returns affects the risk of international equity portfolios. We analyze the equity index and currency returns of 53 countries and find that correlations are mainly positive. Negative correlations are found for currencies which play a special role in the global financial system like the US dollar,...

In this paper we use a test developed by Phillips et al. (2011) to identify a bubble in the gold market. We find that the price of gold followed an explosive price process between 2002 and 2012 interrupted only briefly by the subprime crisis in 2008. We also provide a theoretical foundation for such bubble tests based on a behavioural model of hete...

This paper studies the spread of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 from the financial sector to the real economy by examining ten sectors in 25 major developed and emerging stock markets. The analysis tests different channels of financial contagion across countries and sectors and finds that the crisis led to an increased co-movement of retu...

Gold has been a store of value for centuries and a safe haven for investors in the past decades. However, the increased investment in gold for speculative or hedging purposes has changed the safe haven property. We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that investor behaviour has the potential to destroy the safe haven property of gold. The res...

This paper studies recurring annual events potentially introducing seasonality into gold prices. We analyze gold returns for each month from 1980 to 2010 and find that September and November are the only months with positive and statistically significant gold price changes. This “autumn effect” holds unconditionally and conditional on several risk...

This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. We closely follow Escribano and Granger (1998) and extend their study. First, we use a 40-year sample period from 1970-2010 and examine the existence and stability of a long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. Second, we study the role of bubbles and financia...

This paper studies the exposure of Australian gold-mining firms to changes in the gold price, the stock market and the Australian dollar - US dollar exchange rate. The empirical analysis uses daily, weekly and monthly data of all gold-mining firms in the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index for the period from January 1980 to December 2010 and finds t...

We estimate quantile autoregression (QAR) models to analyze variations in the autoregressive coefficients of 55 international stock index returns and demonstrate that it is important to allow the autoregressive parameters to vary with quantiles. The empirical results identify distinctively different patterns of autoregressive coefficients in the lo...

The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive description of the dependence pattern of stock returns by studying a range of quantiles of the conditional return distribution using quantile autoregression. This enables us in particular to study the behavior of extreme quantiles associated with large positive and negative returns in contrast to...

The copula function defines (i) the degree of dependence and (ii) the structure of dependence. This paper proposes an alternative semi-parametric framework to decompose the dependence. It is demonstrated that the methodology provides a detailed picture of dependence including asymmetric and non-linear relationships. In addition, changes in the degr...

This study analyzes the effects of initial public offerings (IPO) on the performance of European football clubs. We use a unique panel dataset consisting of domestic and international performance data to investigate a football club’s on-field performance before and after going public. The study finds that the performance of football clubs does not...

The volatility of equity returns generally exhibits an asymmetric reaction to positive and negative shocks. Economic explanations for this phenomenon are leverage and a volatility feedback effect. This paper studies the volatility of gold and demonstrates that there is an inverted asymmetric reaction to positive and negative shocks, i.e. positive s...

The substantial increase in the price of gold in recent years appears to be a candidate for a potential asset price ‘bubble’. This observed bubble-like behaviour suggests that chartists (feedback traders) are highly active in the gold market and hence, motivated by these observations, this paper develops and tests empirically several models incorpo...

Gold traditionally has been used as a store of value and an inflation hedge. More recently, gold is also viewed as a hedge against uncertainty and a safe haven. This paper demonstrates that many properties regularly associated with gold are only valid in a simple regression framework but significantly change in a multiple regression framework. A de...

The aim of this paper is to examine the role of gold in the global financial system. We test the hypothesis that gold represents a safe haven against stocks of major emerging and developing countries. A descriptive and econometric analysis for a sample spanning a 30Â year period from 1979 to 2009 shows that gold is both a hedge and a safe haven for...

Investors show different behaviour in falling markets and in rising markets. This paper demonstrates that the beta of individual stocks varies across the entire return distribution and that the variation depends on the frequency of the returns. While there is a symmetric u-shape increase for extreme daily returns, there is an asymmetric effect with...

The global financial crisis of 2008 was a crisis affecting both the financial sector and the “real economy”. This paper analyzes the transmission of unexpected shocks from the financial sector in the US to other countries and sectors. We test the hypothesis that the financial crisis spread from the financial sector to the real economy by infecting...

This paper proposes a multivariate test to measure the statistical and economic significance of contagion through analysis of extreme unobserved common shocks. Contagious episodes are endogenously determined with no need, but the possibility, to specify the source country. Application to a panel of equity returns during the Asian crisis of 1997-199...

This paper proposes a definition for financial market stability and an econometric test. It analyzes the impact of systematic and systemic shocks on developed and emerging market stock indices in normal and extreme market conditions. Financial market stability is defined as a constant impact of systematic shocks in normal and extreme market situati...

This article is the first to study momentum trading strategies in the Irish stock market. The findings can be summarized as follows: (i) unconditional momentum trading strategies do not outperform the market, (ii) winner and loser trading strategies do outperform the market and (iii) controlling for heteroscedasticity significantly changes the resu...

This study analyses the performance of European football clubs which undergo an initial public offering (IPO). We use a unique panel dataset consisting of domestic and international performance data to develop an event study to investigate the effects on a football club’s on-field performance before and after the IPO. The study follows from the obs...

This paper defines the term corporate integrity and proposes a framework to assess the existence of corporate integrity. Corporate integrity is defined as a state or condition in which the objectives of the managers and the shareholders of a corporation are undivided and complete. The compensation of the managers and the shareholders is selected as...

This paper analyzes the existence of flights from stocks to bonds and vice versa. We propose a definition and a test for flight-to-quality, flight-from-quality and cross-asset contagion and examine their characteristics and effects for the financial system. The empirical analysis for eight developed countries including the US, the UK, Germany and J...

This paper examines the conditions under which investors flee from stocks to bonds or vice versa. Daily and weekly stock and bond returns are analyzed to determine when investors start to flee from a market and rebalance their portfolios. We use a theoretical model that demonstrates why rational investors deviate from the optimal portfolio weights...

This study analyzes the evolution of house prices in Ireland and investigates the question of whether Irish households are overexposed to certain economic risks rendering the decision to buy a house too risky and hence irrational. We use a simple theoretical framework to demonstrate the investment options of a typical household and derive the risk...

This study analyzes the evolution of house prices in Ireland and investigates the question of whether Irish households are overexposed to certain economic risks rendering the decision to buy a house too risky and hence irrational. We use a simple theoretical framework to demonstrate the investment options of a typical household and derive the risk...

This paper shows empirically that the level of stock-bond correlation depends more on crosscountry influences than on stock and bond market interaction. The study examines the relation of cross-country and cross-asset stock and bond market linkages for eight developed countries and finds that (i) stock market returns primarily depend on the US stoc...

This paper is motivated by the observation that there is a large discrepancy among football nations regarding the number of football players that play in the national team and also in their home league. Two extreme examples are Argentina and Italy : Almost all members of the national team of Argentina play in a foreign football league and all natio...

This paper addresses two questions. First, we investigate whether gold is a hedge against stocks and/or bonds and second, we investigate whether gold is a safe haven for investors if either stocks or bonds fall. A safe haven is defined as a security that loses none of its value in case of a market crash. This is counterpoised against a hedge, defin...

Matching university places to students is not as clear cut or as straightforward as it ought to be. By investigating the matching algorithm used by the German central clearinghouse for university admissions in medicine and related subjects, we show that a procedure designed to give an advantage to students with excellent school grades actually harm...

Existing multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models either impose strong restrictions on the parameters or do not guarantee a well-defined (positive-definite) covariance matrix. I discuss the main multivariate GARCH models and focus on the BEKK model for which it is shown that the covariance and correlatio...

This paper analyzes the welfare effects of vertical and horizontal integration for dif-ferent market structures in the securities trading and settlement industry. We use a simple model of vertical control for the analysis and compare the theoretical results with the empirical prices and quantities of the post-trade industry in the European Union. R...