Detlef P. van Vuuren

Detlef P. van Vuuren
Utrecht University | UU · Faculty of Geosciences

PhD

About

549
Publications
268,942
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60,305
Citations

Publications

Publications (549)
Article
Full-text available
The framework presented in this study aims to provide insights into how climate policy is represented in integrated assessment models, responding to the call to link model scenarios with concepts used in public policy literature and related fields. As such, it contributes to increased transparency leading to better understanding across disciplines...
Chapter
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This chapter provides an overview of the multi-faceted landscape of methods used to study the steering effects of the Sustainable Development Goals. After a discussion of the political use of science and the complex relations between science and politics, the chapter showcases a selection of different methods that are employed to trace the steering...
Article
Estimating the investments needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is key to mobilising the financial resources to achieve them. Despite an increasing body of research to estimate the capital and operational costs towards achieving various related SDG targets individually and collectively, an overview of the total estimated inves...
Article
Full-text available
Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s...
Article
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The rapidly increasing electricity demand and the expected increase in the contribution of variable renewable energy sources raise the need for looking at the characteristics of long-term demand variations. Furthermore, demand changes (e.g., the increasing penetration of electric vehicles) could affect the shape of future load curves. However, inte...
Preprint
While the IPCC’s physical science report usually assesses a handful of future scenarios, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Working Group III report (AR6 WGIII) on climate mitigation assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task is to assess the global-mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the...
Preprint
Cost-benefit integrated assessment models (IAMs) inform the policy deliberation process by determining cost-optimal greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways based on economic considerations. These models seek to maximise economic utility and treat estimates of climate impacts (damages) and mitigation costs at par as GDP losses, having the same im...
Article
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In 2015, the United Nations agreed on 17 Sustainable Development Goals as the central normative framework for sustainable development worldwide. The effectiveness of governing by such broad global goals, however, remains uncertain, and we lack comprehensive meta-studies that assess the political impact of the goals across countries and globally. We...
Article
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Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three well-established global models t...
Article
Large‐scale bioenergy plays a key role in climate change mitigation scenarios, but its efficacy is uncertain. This study aims to quantify that uncertainty by contrasting the results of three different types of models under the same mitigation scenario (RCP2.6‐SSP2), consistent with a 2 °C temperature target. This analysis focuses on a single bioene...
Article
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The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne dise...
Article
As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects ha...
Preprint
Emission scenarios represent a backbone in future climate change analyzes1–3, informing policy responses and designs4–8. Despite increasing scientific publications and improved scenario quality9, this has not been translated into sufficient policy actions10,11. Finalizing the 6th assessment cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IP...
Book
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The Working Group III (WG III) contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) assesses literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change. The report reflects new findings in the relevant literature and builds on previous IPCC reports, including the WG III contribution t...
Article
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The human-earth system is confronted with the challenge of providing a range of resources for a growing and more prosperous world population while simultaneously reducing environmental degradation. The sustainable development goals and the planetary boundaries define targets to manage this challenge. Many of these are linked to the land system, suc...
Article
The widespread use of chemicals has led to significant water quality concerns, and their use is still increasing. Hence, there is an urgent need to understand the possible future trends in chemical emissions to water systems. This paper proposes a general framework for developing emission scenarios for chemicals to water using the Shared Socio-econ...
Article
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The urgency of tackling global environmental issues calls for radical technological and behavioral changes. New prospective (or ex ante) methods are needed to assess the impacts of these changes. Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) can contribute by detailed analysis of environmental consequences. A new stream of research has taken up the chall...
Preprint
Estimating the investments needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is key to mobilising the financial resources to achieve them. Despite an increasing body of research to estimate the capital and operational costs towards achieving various related SDG targets individually and collectively, an overview of the total estimated inves...
Article
The residential sector currently accounts for one fifth of global energy use and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions, largely driven by increasing demand for space heating and cooling. Climate change mitigation action requires these to reduce, but the exact decarbonization strategies, the contribution of demand and supply side measures, and thei...
Article
One key aspect of the Paris Agreement is the goal to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C by the end of the century. To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, countries need to submit, and periodically update, their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Recent studies show that NDCs and currently implemented national p...
Article
Full-text available
Increasing renewable energy use is an essential strategy for mitigating climate change. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of renewable energy to climatic conditions means that the energy system’s vulnerability to climate change can also become larger. In this research, we used two integrated assessment models and data from four climate models to analys...
Article
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Countries’ emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement have significant implications for lifestyles. National planning to meet emission targets is based on modelling and analysis specific to individual countries, whereas global integrated assessment models provide scenario projections in a consistent framework but with less granular ou...
Article
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The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as th...
Article
With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies...
Article
This global spatially explicit (0.5 by 0.5 degree) analysis presents the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs, processing and biogeochemical retention and delivery to surface waters and river export to coastal seas according to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). Four systems are considered: (i) human system; (ii) agriculture; (iii) aqu...
Article
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The usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendation in specific regions has not been fully assessed to date. This study presents the variation in results across models for a given region, and what might be behind this variation and how model assumptions and structures drive results. Understanding what drives...
Article
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This paper uses decomposition analysis to investigate the key contributions to changes in greenhouse gas emissions in different scenarios. We derive decomposition formulas for the three highest-emitting sectors: power generation, industry, and transportation (both passenger and freight). These formulas were applied to recently developed 1.5 °C emis...
Article
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Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid em...
Article
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Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of a...
Article
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Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some i...
Article
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Many countries have indicated to plan or consider the use of carbon pricing. Model-based scenarios are used to inform policymakers about emissions pathways and cost-effective carbon prices. Many of these scenarios are based on the Hotelling rule, assuming that a carbon price path increasing with the interest rate leads to a cost-effective strategy....
Article
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Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) based on purpose-grown lignocellulosic crops can provide negative CO2 emissions to mitigate climate change, but its land requirements present a threat to biodiversity. Here, we analyse the implications of crop-based BECCS for global terrestrial vertebrate species richness, considering both the land-...
Article
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Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in oth...
Article
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p>With a growing population and a changing climate, competition for water resources in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is expected to increase. In this study, competing water demands between food production, freshwater ecosystems and utilities (energy, industries and households) are quantified. The potential trade-offs and related impacts are ela...
Article
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), labelled as the world's largest infrastructure program, has so far directed investments mainly to energy and transportation networks in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Since its launch, the BRI has changed significantly in terms of scale, stakeholders, and investment sectors and continues to evolve, also i...
Preprint
The SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) scenarios are intensively used in climate and environmental research to explore uncertain future developments and possible response strategies. This paper briefly describes an update of the SSP scenarios generated by the IMAGE 3.2 model. The paper presents the changes in method and key scenario updates. As s...
Preprint
The residential sector currently accounts for one fifth of global energy use and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions, largely driven by increasing demand for space heating and cooling. Climate change mitigation action requires these to reduce, but the exact decarbonization strategies and their heterogeneity is unclear. We use a regional recursiv...
Article
Full-text available
Integrated assessment models (IAM) and resulting scenarios have become increasingly institutionalised and relevant in the science-policy interface of climate policy. Despite their analytical strengths to conceive low-carbon futures, their co-evolution with the transnational science-policy interface of climate politics has also led to a focus on a s...
Article
The steel industry is responsible for a large share of the industrial energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and several long-term energy models have some representation of this sub-sector. It is found that models, commonly use a flow-based approach for projecting steel demand neglecting that in-use steel stocks serve as a better demand in...
Article
In this study, we explore the decarbonisation pathways of four carbon and energy-intensive industries (respectively iron & steel, clinker & cement, chemicals and pulp & paper) in the context of a global 2050 net-zero carbon emissions objective using the IMAGE integrated assessment model. We systematically test the robustness of the model by studyin...
Preprint
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The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy....
Article
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The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for 'making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions'. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associat...
Article
International shipping accounts for around 2% of global CO2 emissions. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set the ambition to halve shipping GHG emissions by 2050 to help mitigate climate change. As shipping connects countries and sectors, its future development is highly dependent on regional and sectoral trends. So far, the literat...
Preprint
Full-text available
Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three global models to analyze the impact of a mor...
Article
Full-text available
To predict how society and political systems might actually respond to warming, upgrade integrated assessment models. To predict how society and political systems might actually respond to warming, upgrade integrated assessment models.
Article
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The 2 C and 1.5 C temperature targets of the Paris Agreement can be interpreted as targets never to be exceeded, or as end-of-century targets. Recent literature proposes to move away from the latter, in favour of avoiding a temperature overshoot and the associated net negative emissions. To inform this discussion, we investigate under which conditi...
Article
National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incom...
Article
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Determining international climate mitigation response strategies is a complex task. Integrated Assessment Models support this process by analysing the interplay of the most relevant factors, including socio-economic developments, climate system uncertainty, damage estimates, mitigation costs and discount rates. Here, we develop a meta-model that di...
Article
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Scenarios avoiding global warming greater than 1.5 or 2 • C, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement, may require the combined mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions alongside enhancing negative emissions through approaches such as afforestation-reforestation (AR) and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We use the JUL...
Article
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Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries’ collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, ho...
Article
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Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive syn...
Article
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Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models...
Article
Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China's emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39...
Article
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Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions or neutrality targets. However, most of the information on emissions neutrality (such as timing) is provided for the global level. Here, we look at national-level neutrality-years based on globally cost-effective 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios from integrated assessment models. These resu...
Article
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Low-carbon pathways consistent with the 2 °C and 1.5 °C long-term climate goals defined in the Paris Agreement are likely to induce substantial co-benefits for air pollution and associated health impacts. In this analysis, using five global integrated assessment models, we quantify the emission reductions in key air pollutants resulting from the de...