Dennis Ahlburg

• PhD
• Professor at Trinity University

This paper uses a newly discovered data set on examination results by gender from 1913 to 1986 to show that the gender gap in examinations at the University of Oxford has existed for over a century. We show that after declining for almost 70 years the gender gap in Firsts increased significantly after the introduction of coresidence – the admission...

Universities UK (UUK) has suggested that there may be very significant losses to higher education as a consequence of Covid‐19. However, losses are likely to be substantially lower than the potential losses estimated by UUK. But the magnitude of losses is very uncertain. The UUK’s proposal to restrict undergraduate enrolment per university to stop...

This paper examines the impacts of co-residence (admitting women to men’s colleges and men to women’s colleges) at the University of Oxford beginning in the 1970s. Co-residence increased the representation of women undergraduates at Oxford to near parity with men; the representation of women in academic positions rose but not as substantially as th...

The cost of higher education to the taxpayer is determined in part by the choice of subject and institution made by students. The Augar report on higher education noted that there was an oversupply of ‘low value' courses and called on the government to ‘bear down on low value courses' and ‘target courses better aligned with the economy's needs'.1 U...

The British government is encouraging the growth of for‐profit alternative providers of higher education (HE). While it is true that for‐profits have opened HE access to previously under‐served groups and have been more agile in reacting to market demand, they have done so at a considerable cost to students and the taxpayer because they do not shar...

The Department for Education is attempting to use lessons from economics to spur competition in higher education in the UK, in order to improve access and quality and reduce price. Laudable as these goals are, in this paper it is argued that there are aspects of higher education that are unlike other markets and which may make standard solutions to...

This chapter uses the first wave of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey to investigate the health status of the oldest-old in China. We found that the different measures of health collected in the survey were only moderately related. That is, there is not a single construct called “health.” We found that work history was modestly rela...

The papers in this collection show that the growing body of knowledge on economic growth can be used to improve forecasts of future economic performance and other variables related to economic growth. The papers also show that assumptions matter and that the sectoral sources and the determinants of growth matter, and that not all members of the pop...

Private tutoring is being practiced at an alarming scale in Egypt and in many other developing countries. Nonetheless, the literature on tutoring is still scant. The purpose of this paper is to gain an understanding of the nature and determinants of tutoring in Egypt, using micro-level data, in order to investigate whether gender bias exists in tut...

We jointly model the application, admission, financial aid determination, and enrollment decision process. We simulate how enrollment and application behavior change when important factors like financial aid are permitted to vary. An innovation is the investigation into the role of financial aid expectations and how they relate to application and e...

This paper shows that an important requirement of the MIRAB model, economic success in the host country, is a characteristic of Pacific Islander migrants to the USA and their offspring. Pacific Islanders improved their economic lot in the 1980s and again in the 1990s. Part of this improvement was due to increases in their human capital: Pacific Isl...

We present a multiple spells-competing risks model of stopout, dropout, reenrollment, and graduation behavior. We find that students who experience an initial stopout are more likely to experience subsequent stopouts (occurrence dependence) and are less likely to graduate. We also find evidence of the impact of the length of an initial spell on the...

This study uses the China Healthy Longevity Survey of Oldest-Old to investigate the health status of the oldest-old in China. We found that the different measures of health collected in the survey were only moderately related. That is, there is not a single construct called "health". We found that work history was modestly related to some measures...

To better understand the process of organizational withdrawal, a turnover model incorporating dynamic predictors measured at 5 distinct points in time was examined by following a large occupationally and organizationally diverse sample over a 2-year period. Results demonstrated that turnover can be predicted by perceived costs of turnover, organiza...

We model the impact of past migration on fertility, assessing the separate effects of relative urbanization of the destination, as a proxy for norms, and post-migration employment, as a proxy for opportunity costs. In the Philippines, we find that large fertility declines accompany post-migration employment. If not followed by work for pay, the est...

The Journal of Higher Education 73.5 (2002) 555-581 Graduation, especially timely graduation, is an increasingly important policy issue, and for good reason. College graduates earn twice as much as high-school graduates and six times as much as high-school dropouts (Murphy & Welch, 1993); and their wealth is two and one-half times that of a high-sc...

We use the estimates from a hazard model of college student departure to simulate how changes in financial-aid packaging affect students' departure decisions over time. We find that changing loans to scholarships, as Princeton has recently done, has a large impact on retention and that frontloading aid has a more modest impact. Our results also sug...

Books reviewed in this article: Andrew Mason (Ed.), Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized Emma Rothschild, Economic Sentiments: Adam Smith, Condorcet, and the Enlightenment Klaus M. Leisinger, Karin Schmitt, and Rajul Pandya-Lorch, Six Billion and Counting: Population Growth and Food Security...

Health has improved dramatically in Asia over the last 40 years. Infant mortality dropped over 60 per cent and life expectancy increased by 40 per cent. Despite these gains, health outcomes remain relatively low in many Asian countries, and vary tremendously by region, income level and demographic group. Little progress has been made, for example,...

This study uses the National Center for Education Statistics' postsecondary transcript file of the High School and Beyond/Sophomore Cohort to replicate the findings of Adelman's Answers in the Tool Box study. We use event history modeling to provide additional information about how a number of factors affect time to bachelor's degree attainment. Us...

This paper presents and estimates a model of the determinants of child health and health care utilisation in Indonesia. In particular, it estimates the impact of unwantedness and number of siblings on health outcomes and treatment. It finds evidence that children who are unwanted at birth are more likely than other children to become ill and less l...

Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), we investigate the college attendance, dropout, and graduate behavior of high school graduates. Bivariate duration models, which allow the unobserved determinants of spell durations to be correlated across spells, are developed and used to study the impact of the waiting time...

Population forecasters have paid too little attention to forecast accuracy, uncertainty, and approaches other than the cohort-component method. They should track forecast errors and use them to adjust forecasts. They have chosen measures of forecast accuracy arbitrarily, with the result that flawed error measures are widely used in population forec...

When an unexpected financial crisis overtook Southeast Asia in 1997 planners and policymakers feared that the economic difficulties would unwind two decades of remarkable economic and social development. Newspaper headlines spoke of massive increases in poverty, unemployment and malnutrition, and it was speculated that family planning programs woul...

This study uses a modeling technique often used in economics and other disciplines but rarely applied to educational research. The technique, known as event history modeling, is used to examine the temporal dimensions of student departure from a large research university. This approach allows researchers to remedy analytic problems often found when...

For more than a quarter of a century there has been substantial emigration from the smaller island states of the Pacific to metropolitan fringe states, mainly the USA, New Zealand and Australia. Migration reduced unemployment in island states and remittances have contributed to raised living standards. This paper provides a better understanding of...

In this paper we use 1993 Philippines data and model migration and fertility as simultaneous decisions in order to control for the selectivity of migration. We find the expected inverse impact of migration on fertility. However, we find that the impact of migration on fertility for moves to similar areas was equal to that of moves to more urbanized...

This article examines the attributes of migrants from the Pacific island states of Tonga and Samoa living in Australia to assess the extent to which return migrants could contribute to the human and physical capital stock of the migrant-sending countries. It also examines the impact of intention to return on remittances and asset accumulation. The...

This note discusses Julian Simon's contribution to the population debate. While Simon, who died on 8 Feburary 1998, is best known for his arguments supporting the thesis that the net impact of population growth is positive, his lasting contribution is most likely to be methodological: his championing revisionism in the study of the economic consequ...

Three major groups call on demographers to produce medium- and long-term population forecasts at the national, regional, or global levels - or produce them themselves. They are: other scientists, government and international agencies, and the general public, including private industry. What these consumers of forecasts demand of demographers, or wh...

Understanding the factors associated with sexual behaviour is critical in slowing the spread of HIV in the Philippines, where sexual transmission accounts for most HIV infections, with the majority from heterosexual activity. Further, unprotected sex is common, as is sex with prostitutes. These factors increase the risks associated with extramarita...

Receipt of remittances from migrants decreased the inequality of income in Tonga. Policies that attempt to affect migration or remittance flows, such as policies to improve the administration and collection of taxes, should take into account any undesirable effects on the distribution of income.

Most Pacific Island nations have small populations Several of those populations are growing rapidly as a result of high fertility rates, young age structures, and low or declining mortality rates. International migration relieves population pressures caused by rapid population growth in some Polynesian and Micronesian countries. Nevertheless, rapid...

This chapter presents estimates of the number of people in poverty and changes over time in the number of people in poverty, identifies factors that are related to poverty, and evaluates the role that population growth plays in determining poverty. Attention is paid to both the standard definition of poverty and to the broader concept of well-being...

Until the mid nineteenth century fertility levels had remained broadly constant for many centuries. Short term influences such as favourable or poor economic conditions led to fluctuations but there were no consistent increases or decreases in fertility until the now-developed regions of Europe and North America entered a fertility transition which...

This book examines the nature and significance of the impact of population growth on the well-being of developing countries—in particular, the effects on economic growth, education, health, food supply, housing, poverty, and the environment. In addition, because family planning programmes often significantly affect population growth, the study exam...

This book examines the nature and significance of the impact of population growth on the weIl-being of developing countries-in particular, the effects on economic growth, education, health, food supply, housing, poverty, and the environment. In addition, because family planning programmes often significantly affect population growth, the study exam...

This paper argues that it is premature to decide whether simple forecasting models in demography are more (or less) accurate than complex models and whether causal models are more (or less) accurate than noncausal models. It is also too early to say under what conditions one type of model can outperform another. The paper also questions the wisdom...

This article uses data from the 1987, 1988, and 1989 Current Population Surveys (CPS) to compare the characteristics of hospital, nursing home, and home care aides. The different types of aides were identified through cross-tabulations of the detailed industry and occupation codes available in the CPS. The results verify previous findings in the li...

This article discusses why it is not surprising that empirical studies of the effect of remittances on the distribution of income sometimes find that remittances increase inequality and sometimes find that they decrease it. As has been shown by Stark, Taylor and Yitzhaki (1986), the impact depends on the share of remittances in total income, the di...

This paper examines the influence of both the worker characteristics and job characteristics on pay. Data were collected specifically for this purpose. We find that both worker characteristics and job characteristics are important determinants of pay. In addition we find that females hold jobs that are of lower value to the firm. This explains part...

ABSTRACT The,purpose,of this,paper,is to,assess,the,state,of the,art,in model-based,enrollment,prediction,for,U.S. higher,education.,,We review available studies ,consider methodological and data-availability issues raised bythe approaches reflected in the literature ,and report on a study comparing the,forecast,performance,of several,alternative,m...

The US Bureau of the Census has released a radically revised set of projections of the population of the United States. The population is no longer projected to decline a few decades hence but rather to grow to 383 million by the year 2050. The projections reflect higher fertility, longer life expectancy, and higher rates of net immigration than we...

The demographic, social, and economic characteristics of American families have changed dramatically over the past few decades. While the male breadwinner/female homemaker model was long traditionally typical,l contemporary families may be openly made up of single-parents, remarried couples, unmarried couples, stepfamilies, foster families, extende...

The Environmental Stewardship Scheme provides payments to farmers for the provision of environmental services based on agricultural foregone income. This creates a potential incentive compatibility problem which, combined with an information asymmetry on farm land heterogeneity, could lead to adverse selection of farmers into the scheme. However, t...

US personnel experts, like their New Zealand, UK, and French colleagues, do not know or apply the research base of their profession when selecting managers. Students do know which are the most valid predictors but do not apply them to their work. Nor does it appear that predictors are chosen on the grounds of technical feasibility, cost, or legal d...

Commentary on Armstrong, J. Scott, and Collopy, Fred, (1992), “Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons,” International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 69-80.

The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age...

Some have argued that population growth deters development, while others claim that population growth either aids development or has no significant effect on development. In a sample of South Pacific nations, population growth and size were found to be unrelated to economic development, defined as GDP per capita. However, when indices of quality of...

A study of desired occupational change among a sample of American working women showed that the average level of desired occupational change was high (51 per cent). 'Male' occupations, in general, had a higher desired inflow, lower desired outflow, and higher percentage of stayers than 'female' occupations. If desired occupational choices were fulf...

"This paper uses an autoregressive statistical model to forecast population for Fiji, Western Samoa, Tonga, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu and compares these forecasts with those obtained from other methods. The growth rate of population is predicted to continue to fall in Fiji and Tonga, rise a little for Western Samoa, and rise considerably in Vanu...

This paper discusses the evolution of linked economic-demographic models. The benefits of linking models are explored and illustrated using the major national and regional econometric models in the U.S. and Canada. The current status of linked models is evaluated and future directions of development are suggested. -Author

In the 1960s, the United States led the world in steel production: the economy was booming, the work force was young, and foreign competition was minimal. However, on closer scrutiny signs of change were evident as early as the 1950s.1 The domestic integrated steel producers had failed to adopt new steelmaking processes as fast as their competitors...

A model of fertility determination is presented in which current fertility is a nonlinear function of the fertility of previous generations. This model seems to be an adequate representation of post‐war fertility in Canada and forecasts a renewal of fertility in the 1980's and 1990's. It would seem that policy decisions based on the unchallenged as...

It has been argued that increasing the overtime pay premium may be one way to stimulate employment growth and reduce unemployment. This proposition is investigated for Australia and rejected. Increasing the overtime pay premium from time-and-a-half to double-time would currently create only about 9000 jobs and have little impact on the unemployment...

That all data refer to the past and all use of data the future implies a line between past and future drawn at “now.” Without continuities that make possible extrapolation across that line statistical data would be useless, indeed the very possibility of purposeful behavior would be in doubt (Keyfitz 1977). The mechanism by which economic, demograp...

This paper presents alternative forecasts of enrollments in grades K-12 for the period 1980–2050. The forecasts suggest that enrollments will continue to decline in the short run, perhaps by more than is currently recognized. The long-run position is, however, different. By 1995, K-8 enrollment should approximate its 1969 maximum, while by 2000 enr...

PIP This paper presents the preference ordering that underlies Easterlin's relative income theory of fertility. Commodity aspirations are a key component of the theory and the paper explores how the introduction of commodity aspirations into the utility function affects the consumption of commodities and bearing of children. The formation and empir...

This paper simulates how the union success rate in representation elections would be affected if the NLRB reverted from its current simple-majority voting rule to its original majority-in-unit voting rule. Such a rule change would have altered 21 percent of decertification and 16 percent of certification victories over the period 1977–81, resulting...