Davide Natalini

Davide Natalini
Anglia Ruskin University | ARU · Global Sustainability Institute, Faculty of Science and Technology

Bachelor of Arts, Masters of Arts, PhD

About

22
Publications
8,899
Reads
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388
Citations
Introduction
I am an environmental social scientist. My research interests are interdisciplinary and lie in environmental and climate change and impacts on human systems. I am interested in the study of complex socio-ecological systems and systemic risk, with specific focus on environmental security and conflict. I approach these fields through qualitative (e.g. co-production and multi-stakeholder engagement) and quantitative (e.g. statistics, econometrics and computer simulation) methods.
Additional affiliations
October 2017 - present
Anglia Ruskin University
Position
  • Research Associate
Description
  • As permanent research fellow, I am developing my programme of research to pursue my research interests, i.e. food and fuel riots, environmental conflict, synchronous failures, cascading risks, food and energy production shocks.
August 2016 - September 2017
Anglia Ruskin University
Position
  • Research Assistant
Description
  • I am currently employed on the H2020 MEDEAS project, aimed at simulating the decarbonisation of the European energy system.
April 2015 - June 2015
Anglia Ruskin University
Position
  • Research Assistant
Description
  • Short-term collaboration with the UK-US Taskforce on the Impact of Extreme Weather on US/UK Food Security. Developed an agent-based model to investigate diffusion of food production shocks and consequences for international prices and food riots.
Education
September 2010 - December 2012
University of Turin
Field of study
  • Political Science; Environmental Economics and Environmental Policies
September 2006 - March 2010
University of Bologna
Field of study
  • Political Science; International Relations

Publications

Publications (22)
Article
Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals....
Article
Full-text available
The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to political leaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of) access to critical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead to violent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility ind...
Article
Full-text available
The transport sector needs to go through an extended process of decarbonisation to counter the threat of climate change. Unfortunately, the International Energy Agency forecasts an enormous growth in the number of cars and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Two issues can thus be identified: (1) the need for a new methodology that could evaluate the...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Sustainability analysis represents a form of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) because it involves multiple sectors and agents displaying non-linear and non-rational interacting behaviours characterized by feedbacks and time lags. Thus, it cannot be properly addressed with classical econometric models such as General Equilibrium Models (GEM), nor with...
Article
Full-text available
The European Green Deal comprises various policy initiatives with the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The “Fit for 55 packages” include the Social Climate Fund, which aims to help, among others, vulnerable households and transport users meet the costs of the green energy transition. Thus, analyzing households’ expenditures and the assoc...
Article
Full-text available
Between 2005 and 2018, 41 countries had at least one riot directly associated with popular demand for fuel. We make use of a new international dataset on fuel riots to explore the effects of fuel prices and price regimes on fuel riots. In line with prior expectations, we find that large domestic fuel price shocks - often linked to international pri...
Article
Full-text available
Energy protests are becoming increasingly common and significant around the world. While in the global North concerns tend to centre around climate issues, in the global South the concerns are more often with affordable energy. Both types of protests, however, have one issue in common: the undemocratic nature of energy policymaking. This paper draw...
Article
Full-text available
In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of integrated assessment models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modeling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different integrated assessment models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-...
Preprint
Full-text available
In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of Integrated Assessment Models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modelling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different Integrated Assessment Models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long...
Preprint
Full-text available
Fuel riots are common around the world. Between 2005 and 2018, 41 countries had at least one riot directly associated with popular demand for fuel. We make use of a new international dataset on fuel riots to explore the effects of fuel prices and price regimes on fuel riots. In line with prior expectations, we find that large domestic fuel price sh...
Article
Full-text available
‘Fuel riots’ are a distinct type of energy-related conflict. We provide the first fuel riots database and explore their social, economic and environmental drivers. The analysis demonstrates links between fuel riots and high international crude oil prices in countries characterised by weak state capacity, deficient governance, fuel scarcity and poor...
Article
Full-text available
This paper reviews different approaches to modelling the energy transition towards a zero carbon economy. It identifies a number of limitations in current approaches such as a lack of consideration of out-of-equilibrium situations (like an energy transition) and non-linear feedbacks. To tackle those issues, the new open source integrated assessment...
Article
Full-text available
This paper reviews different approaches to modelling the energy transition towards a zero carbon economy. It identifies a number of limitations in current approaches such as a lack of consideration of out-of-equilibrium situations (like an energy transition) and non-linear feedbacks. To tackle those issues, the new open source integrated assessment...
Preprint
This paper defines ‘fuel riots’ as a distinct type of energy-related conflict. The paper provides the first database for fuel riots and explores their social, economic and environmental drivers. Focussing upon refined fuel commodities, the analysis demonstrates a link between fuel riots and rising international fuel prices in countries characterise...
Book
Full-text available
This open access book brings together a set of original studies that use cutting-edge computational methods to investigate conflict at various geographic scales and degrees of intensity and violence. Methodologically, this book covers a variety of computational approaches from text mining and machine learning to agent-based modelling and social net...
Article
Full-text available
Agent-based modelling (ABM) simulates Social-Ecological-Systems (SESs) based on the decision-making and actions of individual actors or actor groups, their interactions with each other, and with ecosystems. Many ABM studies have focused at the scale of villages, rural landscapes, towns or cities. When considering a geographical, spatially-explicit...
Preprint
Full-text available
The Global Carbon Budget is the cumulative carbon emissions that human activities can generate while limiting the global temperature increase to less than 2°C. On this basis, most countries ratified the Paris Agreement 2015, pledging to reduce national emissions and the impacts of climate change. The European Union has planned to reduce emissions b...
Article
Full-text available
The Paris Agreement, ratified in 2015, pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within a Global Carbon Budget that limits the global temperature increase to less than 2 °C. With the Roadmap 2050 mitigation measures, the European Union has a target to reduce emissions by 80% of their 1990 value by 2050 but without giving an estimation or a maximum...
Preprint
Full-text available
The Global Carbon Budget is the cumulative carbon emissions that human activities can generate while limiting the global temperature increase to less than 2°C. On this basis, most countries ratified the Paris Agreement 2015, pledging to reduce national emissions and the impacts of climate change. The European Union has planned to reduce emissions b...

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