David A. Swanson

David A. Swanson
University of California, Riverside | UCR

Ph.D.

About

328
Publications
57,380
Reads
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2,209
Citations
Additional affiliations
July 2007 - present
University of California, Riverside
Position
  • Professor (Full)
January 2005 - April 2019
University of Washington Seattle
Position
  • Professor Emeritus
August 2003 - July 2007
University of Mississippi
Position
  • Professor (Full)
Education
December 1976 - May 1985
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Field of study
  • Sociology/Population Studies
August 1974 - December 1976
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Field of study
  • Sociology/Population studies
August 1973 - June 1974
Stockholm University
Field of study
  • Social Science

Publications

Publications (328)
Article
Full-text available
Population forecasting is a difficult endeavor. When it involves a “small” population, forecasting becomes even more difficult because of the lack of adequate input data to appropriately implement a technique preferred by demographers, the cohort-component method (CCM). Small populations also are subject to high levels of stochastic uncertainty, wh...
Article
There is a rich body of literature on equalities in the period life table, which also can be interpreted as a stationary population, and a smaller, but no less rich, body on inequalities. The latter is important because it provides information on health disparities and, like the equality literature, serves as a foundation for formal mortality analy...
Preprint
Background COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan, the capital city of the province of Hubei in China. Due to the presentation of multiple symptoms at the same time, it is clinically important to understand the probability of dying from COVID-19 vs. the probability of dying from other causes. Methods Using data collected in Hubei that identified b...
Preprint
It is natural to question the impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy. However, a newborn during the 2020-2021 period need not experience the same level of adult mortality found in 2020-2021 because there may be zero COVID-19 related deaths when the newborn reaches adulthood. Thus, life expectancy lost due to COVID-19 cannot be found simply by incorp...
Preprint
Full-text available
Long term effects of the COVID-10 pandemic
Article
Full-text available
In a first-ever nation-wide census tract evaluation, we assess the accuracy of the Hamilton–Perry population projection method for 65,221 census tracts. We started with 73,607 census tracts but eliminated those for which zeros appeared in age/sex groups. The test uses 1990 and 2000 census tract data by age and gender to construct cohort change rati...
Article
Full-text available
Tayman and Swanson (J Popul Res 34(3):209–231, 2017) found in Washington State counties that a forecast based on the Hamilton–Perry method using a synthetic adjustment (SYN) of cohort change ratios and child-woman ratios had greater accuracy and less bias compared to forecasts holding these ratios constant (CONST). In this paper, we assess the robu...
Article
Full-text available
This paper discusses known mathematical equalities and inequalities found within life tables and proceeds to identify two new inequalities. The first (theorem 1) is that at any given age x, the sum of mean years lived and mean years remaining exceeds life expectancy at birth when age is greater than zero and less than the maximum lifespan. The seco...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Census Bureau plans to introduce a new Disclosure Avoidance System known as Differential Privacy (DP) for its 2020 census data products. Using a DP demonstration product file provided by the Census Bureau, we assess the errors introduced by DP on census block data in Mississippi in the form of four case studies and find them to be substantial b...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Taylor’s Law is a widely observed empirical pattern that relates variances to means in sets of non-negative measurements via an approximate power function across a number of fields. It also has found application to human mortality. This study adds to this empirical research by showing that Taylor’s Law leads to a model that reasonably describes the...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The US Census Bureau is examining the possibility of creating “synthetic data sets” to be used by researchers. Along with others, I believe that this is a mistake. These synthetic data sets will be created from “real” data by modeling of the relationships in the latter and using the models to generate values in the former. There is a fundamental fl...
Preprint
Full-text available
Looking at the effects of DP on the accuracy of small area population data brings to mind an observation attributed to a U.S. Army officer by reporter Peter Arnott during the war in Viet Nam, “It became necessary to destroy the town in order to save it.” Given that there are no known privacy breaches of the type DP is intended to prevent, one wonde...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Census Bureau plans to introduce a new Disclosure Avoidance System known as Differential Privacy (DP) for its 2020 census data products. Using the most recent (28 April, 2021) DP demonstration product file provided by the Census Bureau, I assess the errors introduced by DP on Washington's census block population data in the form of three case s...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Census Bureau plans to introduce a new Disclosure Avoidance System known as Differential Privacy (DP) for its 2020 census data products. Using a DP demonstration product file provided by the Census Bureau, we assess the errors introduced by DP on census block data in Mississippi in the form of four case studies and find them to be substantial b...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Census Bureau plans to introduce a new Disclosure Avoidance System known as Differential Privacy (DP) for its 2020 census data products. Using two DP demonstration product files provided by the Census Bureau, we assess the errors introduced by DP on census block data in Alaska in the form of four case studies and find them to be substantial by...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Background: Modeling even simple aspects of the covid-19 pandemic is challenging in the United States because of the sparsity of data. This is unfortunate because it is in local areas where many battles are being waged against the pandemic. Thus, the primary force driving this paper is the development of a simple model framework that requires only...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Background: There are approximately 100,000 people in the United States with Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) and the paucity of life tables for this population makes it difficult to determine if research and treatment innovations have improved their life expectancy over time and relative to the general U.S. population. Method: Using mortality data genera...
Article
Full-text available
Basic reproductive numbers during COVID-19, either through standard approaches or through time-varying approaches, are key for understanding the pandemic growth. However, improper usage and interpretations and computational difficulties during lockdowns could be misleading for planning and mitigation.
Chapter
Following the path laid out in Abelin’s seminal 1965 article, we construct life tables from cohort mortality data widely employed in efforts to examine smoking and health, which in this case is the Kaiser Permanente Smoking Study. The mortality data in this study have been used in terms of relative mortality and risk rates in regard to smoking beha...
Chapter
Earlier work provided an estimate of 683,200 for the 1778 population of Hawaiʻi in 1778, the year of first European contact and decennial estimates of the number of Native Hawaiians from 1780 to 1900. In this brief paper, this work is extended to Part-Hawaiians with an estimate for 1778 and decennial estimates from 1780 to 1900. Comparisons are mad...
Article
Full-text available
While the crude death rate has well-known drawbacks, it remains a population health statistic of interest. One of its drawbacks is found exclusively in the context of a small population, where the number of deaths is subject to a high level of stochastic uncertainty. This can lead to dramatic variations in the crude death rate from year to year eve...
Preprint
Full-text available
Along with many other data problems affecting the unfolding of the COVID-10 pandemic in the United States, virtually nothing is known about the number of positive, unconfirmed cases, especially in local areas. We show that it is possible to estimate the number of positive, unconfirmed COVID-19 cases using a simple, long-established method employed...
Article
Full-text available
A method is presented for estimating the “underlying” infant mortality rates for areas with small populations, described and illustrated in a case study that estimates infant mortality rates for 66 of 89 local health areas in British Columbia where reported births were less than 649 in 2011, including 38 reporting zero infant deaths. The method gen...
Article
Full-text available
A method is presented for estimating the “underlying” infant mortality rates for areas with small populations. It is described and illustrated in a case study that estimates infant mortality rates for 2494 US counties that had less than 1000 births in 1970. The method’s validity is tested using a synthetic population in the form of a simulated data...
Research
Full-text available
Localities where refugees & immigrants live—or are detained—will get a decadelong windfall of federal dollars on the 2020 Census
Article
Full-text available
Infant mortality is an important population health statistic that is often used to make health policy decisions. For a small population, an infant mortality rate is subject to high levels of uncertainty and may not indicate the "underlying" mortality regime affecting the population. This situation leads some agencies to either not report infant mor...
Method
Full-text available
It represents the identification and use of two discrete models constructed using industry data on loss payment patterns provided by Paul Struzzieri in the file, "Industry Benchmarks.xls" There are two types of general models: (1) The Model for Losses from All Sources; and (2) The Model for Losses from a specific source, "agent error." Uses of the...
Preprint
Full-text available
Infant mortality is an important population health statistic that is often used to make health policy decisions. For a small population, an infant mortality rate is subject to high levels of stochastic uncertainty and may not indicate the intrinsic mortality regime affecting the population. This situation leads some agencies to either not report in...
Method
Full-text available
This excel file illustrate the calculation of a premium for a endowment life insurance policy. I used it in the applied demography class I taught at the University of California Riverside.
Research
Full-text available
This is a life table for Nevada Males constructed using 1990 data. I used it in my applied demography class at the University of California Riverside.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Infant mortality is an important population health statistic that is often used to inform health policy decisions. For a small population, an infant mortality rate is subject to high levels of stochastic uncertainty and may not indicate the intrinsic mortality regime affecting the population. This situation leads some agencies to either not report...
Article
Full-text available
by Thomas K. BurchDemographic Research Monographs.Dordrecht: Springer, 2018.ISBN 978-3-319-65432-4.Softcover C$24.99, 200 pp.e-book DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-65433-1
Data
This is a Hamilton-Perry projection of the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation (Washington) to 2100. Because the CCRs are constant it is best viewed as what would occur under the assumption of constant CCRs based on the 2000-2010 Census data.
Data
This is a Hamilton-Perry Projection from 2010 to 2100 of the “Native American Alone” population of the Coeur d’Alane Reservation, Idaho. No adjustments are made to the CCRs. As such, this is best viewed as the likely 2100 population if there was not change in the 2000-2010 CCRs.
Technical Report
Full-text available
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I find that the population forecasted for the Study Area by the HCA Consultant, "RPC," lacks face validity, is implausible, and fails to give any indication of the uncertainty inherent in it. The RPC forecast lacks face validity and is implausible because it is unrealistically large by the end of the forecast horizon (2014-2015)....
Technical Report
Full-text available
In regard to Public Chapter 1, codified as Tenn. Code Ann., section 49-2-502(b), I find that it so unlikely as to be virtually impossible that any of the county school districts in the five following Tennessee counties would experience an increase in student enrollment of 100 percent or more if the administrations of the schools in special district...
Data
These life tables were assembled by David A. Swanson (dswanson@ucr.edu) from data found in a publicatIon by Friedman et al. (1997) that provides mortality rates by age, gender, and smoking status (quantity smoked, duration smoked). Reference Friedman, G., Tekawa, I., Sadler, M., & Sidney, S. (1997). Smoking and mortality: Institute. The Kaiser P...
Method
Full-text available
This Excel file has a VBA "Macro" (leslie5yccr) written by David A. Swanson that is designed to take a population to stability using the "cohort change ratio" method in conjunction with a Leslie Matrix. The file and the Macro are designed for a population with 16 age groups (0-4, 5-9,…,75+) with a five year difference between census counts, which m...
Technical Report
When the arithmetic mean (mean) is used as a measure of location for a set of right-skewed positive observations, it is subject to being pulled upward. This upward movement tends to move the mean away from the bulk of the observations, making it less representative of them. One way to deal with this loss of representativeness is to transform the da...
Data
This is a Hamilton-Perry Projection of the population of the Lummi Indian Nation from 2010 to 2100. No adjustments are made to the CCRs. As such, this is best viewed as the likely 2100 population if there was not change in the 2000-2010 CCRs.
Data
This is a Hamilton-Perry Projection of the Navajo Indian Population in the United States from 2010 to 2100. No adjustments are made to the CCRs. As such, this is best viewed as the likely 2100 population if there was not change in the 2000-2010 CCRs.
Data
This is a Hamilton-Perry Projection of the Native Hawaiian (alone) population of Hawai'i from 2000 to 2100. The CCRs remain constant. As such, the projection is best viewed as the expected outcome with constant CCRs.
Data
This is a Hamilton-Perry Projection from 2010 to 2100 of the population of the "County Census Division" in which the tribal reservation of the Hopi Indian Nation is located. No adjustments are made to the CCRs. As such, this is best viewed as the likely 2100 population if there was not change in the 2000-2010 CCRs.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Infant Mortality is an important population health statistic that is often used to inform health policy decisions. Unfortunately, these data are neither typically available currently nor in the past for areas with small populations. A method is presented for estimating the “underlying” infant mortality rates for areas with small populations where t...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
It has been found that the lack information on major league baseball career length is surprising given the detailed historical data on baseball players and the large number of working life tables for various occupations. We argue that this deficit may be due at least in part to an assumption that the process needed to construct MLB working life tab...
Preprint
Full-text available
This paper is forthcoming in Canadian Studies in Population: https://journals.library.ualberta.ca/csp/index.php/csp/index
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper discusses known mathematical equalities and inequalities found within life tables and proceeds to identify two new inequalities. The first (theorem 1) is that at any given age x, the sum of mean years lived and mean years remaining exceeds life expectancy at birth when age is greater than zero and less than the maximum lifespan. The seco...
Chapter
Humans are living beings and share some characteristics with other living organisms. Reproduction is one of the features of life.
Chapter
Population momentum will ensure that the world population will continue to grow throughout the 21st century.
Chapter
Diverse views on population have been expressed throughout the ages. Far back in history, Confucius is known to have been concerned with population growth and loss of productivity and Greek philosophers with concepts of optimum population and social welfare. Some thinkers were concerned with numbers and density of human population in relation to th...
Chapter
Migration has been a feature of human behaviour since pre-historic times.
Chapter
Population size and growth poses an ecological riddle that has persisted throughout human history.
Chapter
Early humans evolved some five to six million years ago, and from the last common grandmother of humans and chimpanzees around 2.5 million years ago, the genus homo arose with the development of stone tools.
Chapter
History is likely to judge the progress in the 21st century by one major yardstick: is there a growing equality of opportunity between people and among nations?… The most persistent of these [issues] has been gender disparity, despite a relentless struggle to equalize opportunities between women and men. The unfinished agenda for change is consider...
Chapter
The exceptional population growth of the last century was accompanied by the concentration of people in large urban centres nurtured by internal migration from rural to urban areas. For the first time in recorded history, most people now live in urban areas (Fig. 6.1).
Chapter
Euler’s stable population model elaborated by Dublin and Lotka (Swanson et al. 2016; Yusuf et al. 2014) indicates that populations when subjected to constant fertility, mortality and migration rates will tend to converge to the same age distribution in the long-run. However, empirical evidence shows that these components of population-change vary o...
Chapter
Deviant behaviour can be described as a departure from social customs, values, norms and rules in various social contexts.
Chapter
Human survival and longevity have changed dramatically over time. The importance of food availability to survival has been the subject of considerable discussion.
Chapter
People are born and reared in a social group context—the family. This is not unique among living organisms. However, the initial longer growth-phase of humans (childhood and adolescence) makes human survival dependent on social support for a longer fraction of their life cycle.
Book
This book deals with macro and micro aspects of population change and their inter-face with socio-economic factors and impact. It examines theoretical notions and pursues their empirical manifestations and uses multidisciplinary approaches to population change and diversity. It investigates the organic nature of the relationships between socio-econ...
Chapter
In this study, we examine the relationship between SES and life expectancy at birth for 159 nations at three points in time, 1970, 1990, and 2010. This chapter examines the concept of a biological warranty and its “extended operation” as well as a social warranty in regard to life expectancy at birth. In so doing, we employ Per Capita Gross Domesti...
Preprint
Full-text available
When the arithmetic mean when it is used as a measure of location for a set of x positive observations (where 0 ≤ x) that are right skewed, it is subject to being pulled upward, which tends to move it away from the bulk of the observations, making it less representative of the bulk of them. The typical way to deal with this loss of representativene...
Chapter
China and India are the two most populous countries in the world but have followed different demographic courses. Both countries have experienced substantial expansion of their markets for a range of commodities. However, dissimilar household composition and socioeconomic paths have affected household preferences in the two countries. The paper rev...
Chapter
The Hamilton-Perry method is a variant of the Cohort-Component population forecasting method that has minimal data input requirements. It only requires the age distributions for a population at two points in time, which generally are two successive census enumerations. Although the method has gained acceptance, tests of its accuracy are limited. In...
Chapter
Full-text available
Debates in countries around the world focus on the need for accurate census data, the overall costs, response rates, confidentiality and legislated changes. With technological advancements, one would expect population counts to be calculated with more ease and fewer associated costs. In this paper, the costs of recent censuses per person, using ove...
Article
Full-text available
The Hamilton–Perry method, which uses cohort change ratios (CCR) and child-woman ratios (CWR), has gained acceptance as research has demonstrated its practical value and accuracy in forecasting population composition. Assessments of this method have been based on the usual assumption that CCRs and CWRs developed over the base period are held consta...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The field of demography can be divided into two general areas, basic or academic demography and applied demography. In this paper, I differentiate the latter from the former and go on to discuss characteristics of applied demography in general as well as those found in the practice of applied demography in the public sector. Because demography gene...
Chapter
In this chapter, we explore the use of the CCR method for generating estimates for a current point in time. Specifically, we show that the CCR method can be used to generate estimates in conjunction with a general class of demographic methods known as “interpolation.”
Chapter
This chapter explores the idea of creating statistical intervals for population forecasts based on stochastic forecasts of the cohort-change ratios (CCR). We provide an overview of the three approaches that have been used to assess population forecast uncertainty; judgment and personal opinion, a range of forecasts based on alternative scenarios, a...
Chapter
In this chapter, we present step-by-step examples based on commonly used procedures to develop forecasts using cohort change ratios (CCRs) and child-woman ratios (CWRs) in conjunction with the Hamilton -Perry (H-P) method. We next investigate the impact of adjusting H-P forecasts to independent total population controls because in rapidly growing (...
Chapter
Demographics drive all aspects of school district management, and student population and enrollment forecasts represent integral components of the management process. In this chapter, we briefly review the history of the development of methods used for student population and enrollment forecasting before describing how cohort change ratios can be u...
Chapter
Census survival methods are the oldest and most widely applicable methods of estimating mortality, and for populations with negligible migration, they can provide accurate estimates. As opposed to other data and analytically intensive methods, CCR methods have minimal data requirements, use available census data, and do not require a great deal of...
Chapter
With the explosion of computerized mapping and spatial modeling techniques over the last 30 years, there has been increased interest in developing small-area demographic estimation and forecasting models that incorporate spatial dependencies among geographic units. In this chapter, we illustrate small-area Hamilton-Perry (H-P) demographic forecasts...
Chapter
In this chapter we first describe the utility of cohort change ratios (CCRs) and relate it to the field of demography, particularly to applied demography. Next, we provide a measure of utility relative to the cohort change ratio (CCR) method (also referred to in this book as the Hamilton-Perry method) and provide examples of its use. We conclude wi...
Chapter
In this chapter, we show how the CCR method can be run in reverse to generate historical population estimates, a procedure known as backcasting. We describe Reverse Cohort Change Ratios (RCCRs) and give three examples of their use. We also show how life table survival rates are related to CCRs.
Chapter
The Hamilton-Perry (H-P) method, which uses cohort change ratios (CCR) and child-woman ratios (CWR), has gained acceptance as research has demonstrated its practical value and accuracy in forecasting population. Assessments of this method have been based on the usual assumption that CCRs and CWRs developed over the base period are held constant ove...
Chapter
Decomposition methods in demography attempt to partition rates of population change into constituent contributors such as population structure or other characteristics that might confound an overall comparison. In this chapter, we explore cohort change ratios by examining subgroup contributions to growth and by decomposing the CCR into components r...
Chapter
This chapter discusses estimates, projections, and forecasts, which are terms that describe the calculation of past, present, and future events, respectively. Estimates correspond to the past and present and both projections and forecasts correspond to the future. The study of demography covers five basic topics: the size of the population; its dis...
Chapter
Stable population theory underpins much of our intuition about population dynamics and it continues to have a fundamental influence on research in demography. It has been well documented that any population subject to a stable set of birth, death, and migration rates will converge to a stable equilibrium characterized by a constant rate of growth a...
Chapter
Chapter 7 focused on forecasts of school enrollment size and composition. In this chapter we focus on forecasts of other population-related characteristics such as households, family structure, labor force, obesity, and disability. These and similar variables are needed for planning, budgeting, policy analysis, and program administration. Because t...
Chapter
This chapter discusses the major sources of demographic information used in applications with Cohort Change Ratios (CCRs). We present data sources available for the United States and then provide examples of sources of demographic data available for other countries. The major sources covered in this chapter include U.S. census data, estimates, and...
Book
This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and require fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts, analytical frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not require extensive knowledge...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract. Although it is an analytic construct important in its own right, a stationary population is an integral component of a life table. Using this perspective, we discuss well-known and not-so-well known equalities that are found a stationary population as well as a set of inequalities. There are two parts to the set of inequalities we discuss...
Book
This book details cutting-edge methods and findings that may shape the future of applied demography. Inside, readers will discover new insights into the databases, substantive issues, and methodological approaches that can help them to improve how they use demography in decision making and planning problems in both public and private settings. The...