David Manley

University of Bristol | UB · School of Geographical Sciences

The existence of ethnic penalties in the operations of the UK labour market is well established, although many studies have focused upon only unemployment and income as measures of labour-market performance. Few have looked at changes in those penalties over time, especially during a period including a major recent recession, and whether they were...

We develop and apply a multilevel modelling approach that is simultaneously capable of assessing multi-group and multi-scale segregation in the presence of substantial stochastic variation which accompanies ethnicity rates based on small absolute counts. Bayesian MCMC estimation of a log-Normal Poisson models allows the calculation of the variance...

Much quantitative analysis in political science – and in the social sciences more generally – focuses on large tables of counts (multivariate contingency tables). A particular problem is that the standard approaches (for example multinomial regression analysis) are practically hard to implement and are often necessarily limited to main-effects mode...

West and East Europeans have been important components of the migration flows into the UK in the last decade, but they remain largely under-studied. This paper utilises 12 quarters of the Labour Force Survey for the years 2002–2013 to examine patterns of over-qualification and their impact on those migrants' earnings. The findings show a clear and...

There has been a vast amount of discussion in both the media and academic literature about the effect of increased tuition fees on access to higher education in England, especially in relation to efforts to implement widening participation programmes. During this debate, the geography of access to higher education has taken a back seat despite grow...

Growing empirical evidence demonstrates that intergroup contact has the potential to reap effects that go beyond prejudice reduction. Much of this evidence, however, is based on findings from cross-sectional surveys. Building on the relatively smaller body of longitudinal intergroup contact research, we conduct a three-time point survey amongst you...

Intergroup contact has long been established as a prejudice‐reduction tool in divided societies, with contact being particularly effective during adolescence. A large proportion of evidence, however, draws on cross‐sectional surveys or analytical approaches that do not distinguish between‐ and within‐person effects. In the present research, we addr...

Background The genetic and environmental aetiology of autistic and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) traits is known to vary spatially, but does this translate into variation in the association of specific common genetic variants? Methods We mapped associations between polygenic scores for autism and ADHD and their respective traits...

Over many decades, academics, policymakers, and governments have been concerned with both the presence of inequalities and the impacts these can have on people when concentrated spatially in urban areas. This concern is especially related to the influence of spatial inequalities on individual outcomes in terms of health, education, work and income,...

Understanding how to promote better social relations between groups in divided societies is vital for peacebuilding efforts. Building on the substantial body of research on intergroup contact theory and everyday multiculturalism, the present research aimed to examine how youth in the divided society of Belfast, Northern Ireland, experience social i...

The measurement of deprivation for small areas in the UK has provided the basis for the development of policies and targeting of resources aimed at reducing spatial inequalities. Most measures summarise the aggregate level of deprivation across all people in a given area, and no account is taken of differences between people with differing characte...

Perceiving supportive peer norms are associated with more frequent and higher quality intergroup contact across a range of contexts. Youth interactions, however, are influenced by a wide range of socializing agents as well as individuals’ desire to interact. Exploring both socializing agents and individual-level variables, the present research exam...

Understanding how to promote better social relations between groups in divided societies is vital for peacebuilding efforts. Building on the substantial body of research on intergroup contact theory and everyday multiculturalism, the present research aimed to examine how youth in the socially divided society of Belfast, Northern Ireland, experience...

The concept of urban living is evolving, and there is a growing interest in creating smaller, more connected, and hyperlocal neighbourhoods, where everything people need is within a 15-minute walk or bike ride. This paper challenges the concept of the ‘15-minute city’ as a panacea for urban ills, by exploring the history of utopian urban planning a...

This paper provides a rapid response analysis of the changing geographies of ethnic diversity and segregation in England and Wales using Census data covering the last 30 years (1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021), a period of significant social, economic and political change. Presenting the first detailed analysis of 2021 Census small area ethnic group data...

In the UK the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 mitigations over the course of the pandemic (March 2020 to the time of writing in January 2022) have been experienced unevenly and with differential intensities at both the regional and local scales. Using individual-level geocoded data (from the Understanding Society: UK Household Longitudinal S...

Background The genetic and environmental aetiology of autistic and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) traits is known to vary spatially, but does this translate into variation in the association of specific common genetic variants? Methods We mapped associations between polygenic scores for autism and ADHD and their respective traits...

Background Observational studies have highlighted that where individuals live is far more important for risk of dying with COVID-19, than for dying of other causes. Deprivation is commonly proposed as explaining such differences. During the period of localised restrictions in late 2020, areas with higher restrictions tended to be more deprived. We...

Contextual poverty refers to high proportions of people with a low income in a certain (residential) space, and it can affect individual socioeconomic outcomes as well as decisions to move into or out of the neighbourhood. Contextual poverty is a multiscale phenomenon: Poverty levels at the regional scale reflect regional economic development, whil...

In this commentary, we provide an overview of the contribution that both types of studies make for our better understanding of the impacts and processes behind the (re)production of inequalities in modern cities. We also address some of the main challenges in modelling contextual effects and, crucially, provide evidence that no single study can def...

Background Observational studies have highlighted that where individuals live is far more important for risk of dying with COVID-19, than for dying of other causes. Deprivation is commonly proposed as explaining such differences. During the period of localised restrictions in late 2020, areas with higher restrictions tended to be more deprived. We...

Thischapterexploresmulti-scaleestimationmethods as an important future direction for segregation research in China. We explain how these recently developed methods help address many longstanding problems in traditional index-based segregation research and open up new avenues of research on Chinese cities. We explain the conceptual framework underpi...

There is no theoretical reason to assume that neighborhood effects operate at a constant single spatial scale across multiple urban settings or over different periods of time. Despite this, many studies use large, single-scale, predefined spatial units as proxies for neighborhoods. Recently, the use of bespoke neighborhoods has challenged the predo...

This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the socio-economic segregation in London. The cosmopolitan nature of the city means there is an interwoven complexity that prevents the separation of social, cultural and economic residential trajectories of the population. As a result, the chapter explores socio-economic segregation within the cont...

Based on data from the 1980s, Sassen’s influential book ‘The Global City’ interrogated how changes in the occupational structure affect socio-economic residential segregation in global cities. Here, using data for New York City, London and Tokyo, we reframe and answer this question for recent decades. Our analysis shows an increase in the share of...

Was the 2016 presidential election a deviating contest, with a map that differed markedly from the apparently settled pattern of the preceding three decades? Some commentators suggested that Trump’s campaign – focused on the ‘white working class’ for whom he promised to ‘Make America Great Again’ – was such an election. This chapter addresses wheth...

Analyses of health over time must consider the potential impacts of ageing as well as any effects relating to cohort differences. The British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and Understanding Society longitudinal studies are employed to assess trends in mental ill-health over a 26-year period. This analysis uses cross-classified multilevel models in...

In the previous two reports in this series, we discussed the history and current status of quantitative geography. In this final report, we focus on the future. We argue that quantitative geographers are most helpful when we can simplify difficult problems using our distinct domain expertise. To do this, we must clarify the theory underpinning core...

Understanding how inequalities are transmitted through generations and restrict upward spatial mobility has long been a concern of geographic research. Previous research has identified that the neighborhood in which someone grows up is highly predictive of the type of neighborhood he or she will live in as an independent adult. What remains largely...

An editorial in Progress in Human Geography related to the COVID-19 pandemic

In the previous two parts of this series, we discussed the history and current status of quantitative geography. In this final part, we focus on the future. We argue that quantitative geographers are most helpful when we can simplify difficult problems using our distinct domain expertise. To do this, we must clarify the theory underpinning core con...

American politics have become increasingly polarized in recent decades, not only ideologically but also geographically. The extent of that geographical polarization is explored at the county and SMSA scales for the presidential elections held between 1992 and 2016 and also, at the much finer, precinct, scale for the 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections. T...

There has been substantial discussion in the literature about where you grow up and if whether or not you experience social and spatial mobility during childhood has substantial bearing upon later life achievement (Pribesh and Downey Demography, 36, 21–534, 1999; Gasper et al. Social Science Research, 39(3), 459–476, 2010; Sharkey and Elwert Americ...

The first of these three reports reprised human geography’s theoretical and quantitative revolutions’ origins, covering the philosophy, focus and methods that dominated their early years. Over the subsequent decades the nature of work categorised as quantitative human geography changed very considerably – in philosophy, focus and methods. This seco...

Theory behind neighbourhood effects suggests that people’s spatial context potentially affects individual outcomes across multiple scales and geographies. We argue that neighbourhood effects research needs to break away from the ‘tyranny’ of neighbourhood and consider alternative ways to measure the wider sociospatial context of people, placing ind...

Multiscale measures of population - Supplemental video

This paper explores the situation of new groups of immigrants by focusing on various categories within the heterogeneous group of individuals which comprise the White population. We combine information on country of origin, ethnicity and religion derived from the UK Labour Force Survey (LFS) to subdivide the White-British, White-Irish and White-Oth...

Previous research has reported evidence of intergenerational transmissions of neighbourhood status and social and economic outcomes later in life. Research also shows neighbourhood effects on adult incomes of both childhood and adult neighbourhood experiences. However, these estimates of neighbourhood effects may be biased because confounding facto...

A very large literature has explored the intensity of urban residential segregation using the index of dissimilarity. Several recent studies have undertaken such analyses at multiple spatial scales, invariably reaching the conclusion that the finer grained the spatial scale, the greater the segregation. Such findings, however, overstate the intensi...

The neighbourhood in which people live reflects their social class and preferences, so studying socio-spatial mobility between neighbourhood types gives insight into the openness of spatial class structures of societies and into the ability of people to leave disadvantaged neighbourhoods. In this paper we study the extent to which people move betwe...

The socio-spatial structure of US metropolitan areas is the foundation of their electoral geographies: political parties and their candidates draw their support from separate groups within society whose spatial segregation is reproduced in voting patterns. As a consequence, when there are changes in a party's support base these should be reflected...

Administrative data, analysed by geographical area, can tell us much about society. But the choice of geographical area frames how we see the world — and a poor choice of frame will present a misleading perspective. By Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones and David Manley Administrative data, analysed by geographical area, can tell us much about society. But...

The past 18 months have delivered a series of “surprising” electoral outcomes. In the USA, the election of Donald Trump confounded expectations. In the UK, the leave result from the EU referendum and the subsequent snap General Election which saw the Conservative Party lose their majority have been heralded as knife‐edge moments and a new period in...

There is a growing narrative that the outcome of the UK referendum on European Union membership was the product of disenfranchisement and disillusionment wrought by the uneven consequences of economic restructuring in different UK regions, cities and communities. Those most likely to vote ‘leave’ were concentrated among those ‘left behind’ by globa...

Much has been written about the polarization of the American electorate and its reflection in its legislatures, but less about its spatial polarization, which Bishop has argued has taken place in parallel with the ideological and behavioral polarization. The extent of that polarization can be assessed, he argues, by identifying the number of landsl...

Health inequalities continue to grow despite continuous policy intervention. Work, one domain of health inequalities, is often included as a component of social class rather than as a determinant in its own right. Many social class classifications are derived from occupation types, but there are other components within them that mean they may not b...

The share of ethnic minority residents has been increasing in many major European cities during the past two decades and these cities are experiencing increasing ethnic diversity (Vertovec, 2007). For example: In 1999, non-western ethnic minorities, such as Turks, Moroccans, Antilleans, and Surinamese, comprised 8.5% of the Dutch population. By 201...

Traditional studies of residential segregation use a descriptive index approach with predefined spatial units to report the degree of neighbourhood differentiation. We develop a model-based approach which explicitly includes spatial effects at multiple scales, recognising the complexity of the urban environment while simultaneously distinguishing s...

Many ecological- and individual-level analyses of voting behaviour use multiple regressions with a considerable number of independent variables but few discussions of their results pay any attention to the potential impact of inter-relationships among those independent variables—do they confound the regression parameters and hence their interpretat...

Deprived neighbourhoods have long been associated with poorer health outcomes. However, many quantitative studies have not evidenced the mechanisms through which place ‘gets under the skin’ to influence health. The increasing prevalence of biosocial data provides new opportunities to explore these mechanisms and incorporate them into models of cont...

In the large literature on the growing polarization of the American electorate and its representatives relatively little attention is paid to the spatial polarization of voters for the two parties at presidential elections. Bishop argued this has increased as the result of residential location decisions: Democratic Party supporters have increasingl...

Much has been written since the 2016 Brexit referendum regarding the divides within British society that the vote illustrated – including geographical divides – and their influence on the outcome of the 2017 general election. Focusing on England, this paper explores the extent and significance of those geographical divides at the 2016 referendum, a...

Although pioneering studies using statistical methods in geographical data analysis were published in the 1930s, it was only in the 1960s that their increasing use in human geography led to a claim that a ‘quantitative revolution’ had taken place. The widespread use of quantitative methods from then on was associated with changes in both disciplina...

Investigating biologically plausible mechanisms for the embodiment of context is a key thoroughfare for progressing health geographies of place. Expanding knowledge of bio-processes such as epigenetics is providing a platform for appreciating the dynamic embedding of social relations in bodies over the lifecourse, and so to tracing the development...

see Blog http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/constituency-level-estimates/ Most opinion polls conducted during British general election campaigns report on each party’s estimated national vote share. Although of considerable interest, these data do not put the spotlight on the marginal seats, the constituencies targeted by the parties for in...

This paper calls for deepening understandings of inequality and the reproduction of inequality across the income distribution. In particular, it brings intergenerational transmissions and place effects, their interaction and progression over time into greater focus. The objective is to understand the implications of increasing inequality for those...

There has been a growing appreciation that the processes generating urban residential segregation operate at multiple scales, stimulating innovations into the measurement of their outcomes. This paper applies a multi‐level modelling approach to that issue to the situation in Auckland, where multiple migration streams from both Pacific Island and As...

Neighbourhood effects studies have demonstrated an association between area deprivation and smoking behaviour whereby people living in deprived neighbourhoods are more likely to smoke than those in non-deprived neighbourhoods. This evidence though is based largely upon data that ignores long term exposures to neighbourhood contexts and is confounde...

Few studies of residential segregation in cities have directly addressed the issue of spatial scale, apart from noting that the traditional indices of segregation tend to be larger when calculated for small rather than large spatial units. That observation however ignores Duncan et al.’s (1961) explication that any measure of segregation at a fine-...

Appreciating spatial scale is crucial for our understanding of the sociospatial context. Multiscale measures of population have been developed in the segregation and neighborhood effects literatures, which have acknowledged the role of a variety of spatial contexts for individual outcomes and intergroup contacts. Although existing studies dealing w...

In a recent paper Becker et al. have analysed the pattern of voting at the UK’s 2016 Referendum on membership of the EU, testing four hypotheses with a wide range of variables. Re-analysis of their data identifies a number of problems of confounding resulting from collinearity among the independent variables which create difficulties in interpretat...

The rapid expansion in support for the Scottish National Party (SNP) between the 2010 and 2015 general elections substantially changed the country’s electoral geography, as again did its relative decline at the next election in 2017. At that last contest, however, the SNP won many seats with fewer than 40% of the votes cast, a situation very differ...

Introduction Health is a marker of the development of societies (Marmot, 2007). The wealth and prosperity of nations are embodied in the welfare of its citizens (Hoff, 2008). Overall, health has improved over the course of the twentieth century for many countries, particularly those forming part of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Deve...

Based on the largest UK study of its kind ever commissioned in the UK, this book provides the most detailed national picture of poverty and social exclusion. Chapters consider a wide range of dimensions of disadvantage, covering aspects of household resources, participation and quality of life. On resources, the book charts changing views about the...

This chapter presents an overview of the relationships of poverty and social exclusion to health. Inequalities in health are investigated across poverty definitions and different health measures, including general health, limiting long term illness, mental state and longstanding mental conditions. Relationships of dimensions of social exclusion to...

Western cities are increasingly ethnically diverse, and in most cities, the share of the population belonging to an ethnic minority is growing. Studies analysing changing ethnic geographies often limit their analysis to changes in ethnic concentrations in neighbourhoods between 2 points in time. Such a temporally limited approach limits our underst...

There has been a substantial switch in approaches to the study of British voting behaviour in recent decades, with much less attention being paid to individual voters’ social positions. This paper argues that such approaches can mis-represent the contexts within which voters are socialised and mobilised and are also technically problematic because...

Most studies of ethnic residential segregation recognise that occupational class is an important influence on the intensity of segregation of members of different ethnic groups, but are unable to explore variations in that intensity because of the lack of relevant data. Australian census data allow the class structure of different ancestry groups t...

Ethnic segregation, in both neighbourhoods and schools, is an issue regularly raised in the British media, usually associated with arguments that it is growing and generating an increasingly-divided society. Segregation in schools is often presented as particularly problematic, and as greater than neighbourhood segregation – with the implication th...

After a period of relative stability the United Kingdom’s electoral map changed markedly in the last decades of the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first. The three most recent elections – in 2010, 2015 and 2017 – witnessed further very substantial change, in part reflecting changes to the party system and the geography of part...

Several commentators before and after the 2016 US presidential election claimed that it involved a “redrawing of the country’s electoral map”, which in the context of the Key/Pomper classification of elections suggested that it was a deviating election, and potentially a critical election heralding a realignment. Analysis of the geography of the re...

Research has suggested that children who move home report poorer mental health than those who remain residentially stable. However, many previous studies have been based on cross sectional data and have failed to consider major life events as confounders. This study uses longitudinal data from ALSPAC, a UK population based birth cohort study, and e...