David Makowski

David Makowski
French National Institute for Agriculture, Food, and Environment (INRAE) | INRAE

PhD
Statistical modelling to assess impact of climate on agricultural production and to design resilient cropping systems.

About

427
Publications
107,495
Reads
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10,460
Citations
Citations since 2016
212 Research Items
7421 Citations
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Introduction
My main interests are in statistical modelling applied to agroecology, environmental sciences, climate change, and food safety. I manage scientific projects and support research groups in analyzing complex datasets using statistical and machine learning methods. https://www6.inrae.fr/mia-paris/Equipes/Membres/David-Makowski https://scholar.google.fr/citations?hl=fr&user=vcnWi7IAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate
Additional affiliations
September 2020 - present
French National Institute for Agriculture, Food, and Environment (INRAE)
Position
  • Managing Director
October 2018 - August 2020
Cirad - La recherche agronomique pour le développement
Position
  • Senior Researcher
Description
  • Project management in land use modelling and climate change
January 2015 - present
Université Paris-Saclay
Position
  • Research Associate
Education
January 2006 - June 2007
September 1993 - January 2001
AgroParisTech
Field of study

Publications

Publications (427)
Article
Full-text available
The internal validity of conclusions about effectiveness or impact in systematic reviews, and of decisions based on them, depends on risk of bias assessments being conducted appropriately. However, a random sample of 50 recently-published articles claiming to be quantitative environmental systematic reviews found 64% did not include any risk of bia...
Article
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Plant water stress occurs at the point when soil moisture (SM) limits transpiration, defining a critical SM threshold ( crit). Knowledge of the spatial distribution of  crit is crucial for future projections of climate and water resources. Here, we use global eddy covariance observations to quantify  crit and evaporative fraction (EF) regimes. T...
Article
Aphids can cause significant damage to sugar beet crops. Myzus persicae (Sulzer) (Hempitera: Aphididae), also called green peach aphid, is responsible for transmitting yellows (i.e., beet yellows virus, beet mild yellowing virus, beet chlorosis virus, and beet mosaic virus) to sugar beet (Beta vulgaris Linné) that can substantially decrease crop yi...
Article
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Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest risk assessment of Amyelois transitella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the navel orangeworm, for the EU. The quantitative assessment considered two scenarios: (i) current practices and (ii) a requirement for chilled transport. The assessment focused on path...
Article
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Annual food caloric production is the product of caloric yield, cropping frequency (CF, number of production seasons per year) and cropland area. Existing studies have largely focused on crop yield, whereas how CF responds to climate change remains poorly understood. Here, we evaluate the global climate sensitivity of caloric yields and CF at natio...
Conference Paper
On-farm research networks (hereafter called OFRN) are managed by groups of farmers conducting trials on their own farms. OFRNs are becoming popular because they allow farmers to assess new management practices under on-farm conditions. Data collected in OFRN can be used to estimate the mean effect of specific cropping practices on crop yields and t...
Article
Full-text available
Atmospheric C sequestration in agricultural soils is viewed as one of the most promising negative emission technologies currently available. Nonetheless, it remains unclear how strongly soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks respond to agricultural practices, especially for subsoil. Here, we assess the SOC storage potential in croplands and how the prese...
Article
The determination of critical nitrogen (N) dilution curves (CNDCs) has been the subject of intensive study for the last decades due to its relevance to diagnosing crop N status. However, to date, minimum steps, data requirements and robust science-based guidelines to estimate CNDCs based on experimental data have not been formalized in the literatu...
Article
Full-text available
Agronomic research provides management recommendations based on small-plot trials (SPTs) and on-farm trials (OFTs) with very different characteristics. SPTs are traditionally conducted at agricultural experiment stations by research institutes or universities, while OFTs are conducted under commercial-scale conditions and managed by farmers using t...
Article
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Earthworms play a key role in soil carbon mineralization, but their effect is highly uncertain and suspected to vary as a function of several factors, particularly the earthworm density and time from earthworm inoculation. We conducted a meta-analysis considering these factors based on 42 experiments comparing carbon mineralization in the absence a...
Article
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Apple is one of the most widely cultivated fruit crops worldwide, and apple yield benefits from pollination by insects. The global decline in wild pollinator populations raises concern about the adequacy of pollination services in apple production. Here, we present a global meta‐analysis of pollination in apple. We assembled from the literature a d...
Article
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This study takes advantage of Swiss long-term field experiments (> 30 yrs) with different K fertilization rates at three sites to (i) test the possibility to generalize linear relationships between K extracts (ammonium acetate, K-AA; ammonium acetate EDTA, K-AAE; water, K-H 2 O; and water saturated with CO 2 , K-CO 2 ), (ii) determine the K fertili...
Article
Full-text available
The production of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (N) has grown so much in the last century that quantifying the effect of N enrichment on plant growth has become a central question for carbon (C) cycle research. Numerous field experiments generally found that N enrichment increased site-scale plant biomass, although the magnitude of the response a...
Article
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Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and polic...
Article
The 2015/16 El Niño brought severe drought and record-breaking temperatures in the tropics. Here, using satellite-based L-band microwave vegetation optical depth, we mapped changes of above-ground biomass (AGB) during the drought and in subsequent years up to 2019. Over more than 60% of drought-affected intact forests, AGB reduced during the drough...
Article
European and French populations are overexposed to cadmium (Cd) through their foods. The risk of increased cadmium exposure for consumers needs to be limited by reduced maximum limits (ML) for novel foodstuffs such as edible seaweed in France. The objective was to derive a low and protective cadmium concentration in edible seaweeds to limit cadmium...
Article
Full-text available
Precise management of crop nitrogen nutrition is essential to maximize yields while limiting pollution risks. For several decades, the critical nitrogen (N) dilution curve - relating plant biomass (W) to N concentration (%N) - has become a key tool for diagnosing plant nutritional status. Increasing number of studies are being conducted to paramete...
Article
The critical nitrogen (N) dilution curve (CNDC) (Nc = A1W-A2) and the N nutrition index (NNI) have shown to be a robust diagnostic tool to assess crop N status. Several CNDCs were established for potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) in various conditions. However, it is difficult to know if these different CNDCs reflect a true variability across genotyp...
Article
Full-text available
Aujourd’hui, d’importantes mutations de l’agriculture mondiale sont nécessaires pour produire suffisamment d’aliments sains pour tous, tout en préservant la qualité des terres, de l’air et de l’eau et en sauvegardant la biodiversité. Mais produire suffisamment et préserver en même temps l’environnement est une équation particulièrement complexe à r...
Article
Full-text available
How climate change will affect overwintering crops is largely unknown due to the complex and understudied interactions among temperature, rainfall and snowpack. Increases in average winter temperature should release cold limitations yet warming-induced reductions of snowpack thickness should lead to decreased insulation effects and more exposure to...
Article
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This study analyses the quality of six regression algorithms in forecasting the monthly price of maize in its primary international trading market, using publicly available data of agricultural production at a regional scale. The forecasting process is done between one and twelve months ahead, using six different forecasting techniques. Three (CART...
Article
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The rapid expansion of soybean-growing areas across Europe raises questions about the suitability of agroclimatic conditions for soybean production. Here, using data-driven relationships between climate and soybean yield derived from machine-learning, we made yield projections under current and future climate with moderate (Representative Concentra...
Article
Full-text available
Both low soil water content (SWC) and high atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) can negatively affect terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). The sensitivity of GPP to soil versus atmospheric dryness is difficult to disentangle, however, because of their covariation. Using global eddy-covariance observations, here we show that a de...
Article
Full-text available
Reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change on crop production are critical for assessing the sustainability of food systems. Global, regional, and site-specific crop simulation studies have been conducted for nearly four decades, representing valuable sources of information for climate change impact assessments. However, the wealth of data...
Article
Full-text available
Assessing the productive performance of conservation agriculture (CA) has become a major issue due to growing concerns about global food security and sustainability. Numerous experiments have been conducted to assess the performance of CA under various local conditions, and meta-analysis has become a standard approach in agricultural sector for ana...
Article
Vegetation is a key component in the global carbon cycle as it stores ~450 GtC as biomass, and removes about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, in some regions the rate of plant carbon uptake is beginning to slow, largely because of water stress. Here we develop a new observation‐based methodology to diagnose vegetation water stress a...
Article
Full-text available
Reliable estimations of soil organic carbon (SOC) deficits in agroecosystems are crucial in evaluating the atmospheric C sequestration potential of agricultural soils and supporting management decisions. Nonetheless, the co-benefit on soil quality resulting from SOC accrual is rarely considered. Here, we assessed SOC saturation and soil physical qu...
Article
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Today, major changes are required in global agricultural systems to produce enough healthy food for all, while preserving the quality of land, air and water and safeguarding biodiversity. But producing enough while simultaneously protecting the environment is a particularly complex equation. Agroecology, a key principle of which is the use of agric...
Article
Understanding the critical soil moisture (SM) threshold (θcrit) of plant water stress and land surface energy partitioning is a basis to evaluate drought impacts and improve models for predicting future ecosystem condition and climate. Quantifying the θcrit across biomes and climates is challenging because observations of surface energy fluxes and...
Article
Full-text available
p>Intercropping has been advocated as an environmentally benign method to suppress weeds in agriculture. However, it is not evident from the literature what size of weed suppressive effect is achieved on average by intercropping, and how species choice and crop management affect this effect. We conducted a global meta-analysis of published data to...
Article
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West Africa is one of the regions the most concerned with structural food and nutrition security. Consequently, agricultural development pathways and scenarios are under high scientific and political scrutiny in this region. Rice, as a rapidly growing staple plays a key role in the West African diet representing close to 40% of the total volume of...
Article
Assessing the plant nitrogen (N) status is one of the major challenges for improving N fertilization management and reducing its environmental footprint on forage-based agricultural systems. We re-analyzed a dataset of biomass (W) and plant N concentration (%N) of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb.) using a Bayesian statistical model for esti...
Article
Previous studies reported an effect of water deficit on crop nitrogen (N) demand but the statistical significance of this effect is unclear and the physiological mechanism explaining this effect remains poorly understood. The specific aims of this review are (i) assess whether the parameters of the N dilution curve are significantly influenced by t...
Article
Full-text available
Plant pest invasions cost billions of Euros each year in Europe. Prediction of likely places of pest introduction could greatly help focus efforts on prevention and control and thus reduce societal costs of pest invasions. Here, we test whether generic data-driven risk maps of pest introduction, valid for multiple species and produced by machine le...
Article
Full-text available
The European Green Deal aims to reduce the use of chemical pesticides by half by 2030. Decision support systems are tools to help farmers schedule fungicide spraying based on disease risk and can reduce fungicide application frequency and overall use. However, the potential benefit of decision support systems compared to traditional calendar-based...
Article
Inclusion of cover crops (CCs) in cropping systems can improve soil quality, reduce agricultural inputs, and improve environmental sustainability. While CCs have been widely promoted in China in recent years, a quantitative assessment of CC effect on crop yield across China is lacking. There is also no overarching analysis on factors explaining var...
Article
Full-text available
As a key component of the Earth system, roots play a key role in linking Earth's lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and atmosphere. Here we combine 10 307 field measurements of forest root biomass worldwide with global observations of forest structure, climatic conditions, topography, land management and soil characteristics to derive a spatially...
Article
Full-text available
Farmers' use of fungicides and insecticides constitutes a major threat to biodiversity that is also endangering agriculture itself. Landscapes could be designed to take advantage of the dependencies of pests, pathogens and their natural enemies on elements of the landscape. Yet the complexity of the interactions makes it difficult to establish gene...
Article
Critical nitrogen (Nc) dilution curves have been widely used for the plant N status diagnosis, N management, crop modeling, and remote sensing. Wheat is a major crop worldwide whose Nc dilution curves developed under different conditions (genotype × environment × management) show large parameter variations. Herein, a dataset of 19 nitrogen fertiliz...
Article
Full-text available
Planting cover crops after harvest of the main crop has become a key practice in temperate agriculture to reduce N leaching and increase soil organic matter. However, the growth of cover crops can be affected by adverse weather. Growing mixtures is thought to increase yield and reduce variation in productivity, but quantitative information on this...
Article
Full-text available
Water-table drawdown across peatlands increases carbon dioxide (CO2) and reduces methane (CH4) emissions. The net climatic effect remains unclear. Based on global observations from 130 sites, we found a positive (warming) net climate effect of water-table drawdown. Using a machine-learning-based upscaling approach, we predict that peatland water-ta...
Article
Full-text available
Conservation agriculture (CA) is being promoted as a set of management practices that can sustain crop production while providing positive environmental benefits. However, its impact on crop productivity is hotly debated, and how this productivity will be affected by climate change remains uncertain. Here we compare the productivity of CA systems a...
Article
Full-text available
Agricultural price shocks strongly affect farmers' income and food security. It is therefore important to understand and anticipate their origins and occurrence, particularly for the world's main agricultural commodities. In this study, we assess the impacts of yearly variations in regional maize productions and yields on global maize prices using...
Preprint
Full-text available
Identifying sustainable agricultural practices to support policy development requires a rigorous synthesis of scientific evidence based on experiments carried out around the world. In agricultural science, meta-analyses (MAs) are now commonly used to assess the impact of farming practices on a variety of outcomes, including crop and livestock produ...
Article
Full-text available
When a peatland is drained and cultivated, it behaves as a notable source of CO 2 . However, we lack temporally and spatially explicit estimates of carbon losses from cultivated peatlands. Using a process-based land surface model that explicitly includes representation of peatland processes, we estimate that northern peatlands converted to cropland...
Article
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Ecological theory suggests that biodiversity has a positive and stabilizing effect on the delivery of ecosystem services. Yet, the impacts of increasing the diversity of cultivated crop species or varieties in agroecosystems are still under scrutiny. The empirical evidence available is scattered in scope, agronomic and geographical contexts and imp...
Preprint
Full-text available
Reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change on crop production are critical for assessing climate change impacts on the food systems. Global, regional, and site-specific crop simulation studies have been conducted for nearly four decades, a valuable resource for the assessment. However, datasets covering these studies are not publicly avail...
Article
Recent adverse weather events have questioned the stability of crop production systems. Here, we assessed the vulnerability of eleven major crops in France between 1959 and 2018 as a function of climate, crafting a novel hazard framework that combines exposure and sensitivity to weather-related hazards. Exposure was defined as the frequency of haza...
Article
Full-text available
Recently, yield shocks due to extreme weather events and their consequences for food security have become a major concern. Although long yield time series are available in Europe, few studies have been conducted to analyze them in order to investigate the impact of adverse climate events on yield shocks under current and future climate conditions....
Article
p>Pitfall trapping is widely used for studying the abundance and diversity of ground-dwelling arthropods and small vertebrates. Meta-analysis is a powerful technique to synthesize information across studies, but it requires standardization to make study results comparable. It has never been studied how results of pitfall trapping should be standard...