David Leblang

• University of Virginia

Migration is among the central domestic and global political issues of today. Yet the causes and consequences - and the relationship between migration and global markets – are poorly understood. Migration is both costly and risky, so why do people decide to migrate? What are the political, social, economic, and environmental factors that cause peop...

We conclude by placing our arguments and findings into the current context of rising political opposition to international migration. One of our central claims – substantiated by a range of empirical evidence – is that migration economically benefits both migrant-sending and -receiving countries. Migrants foster new international capital flows to b...

After establishing why people migrate, in this chapter we turn to an investigation of how migrants economically re-engage with their homeland. Specifically, we explore how migrants facilitate flows of international financial capital. We argue that migrants, because they possess critical knowledge about investment opportunities in their homelands, h...

After deciding to exit, migrants can move to a range of potential destinations. Why do they choose one country over another? We again provide an overview of existing answers that identify economic factors – migration’s costs and benefits – and a migrant’s social network as the crucial variables driving destination choice. We instead highlight a des...

Migration is among the central domestic and global political issues of today. Yet the causes and consequences - and the relationship between migration and global markets – are poorly understood. Migration is both costly and risky, so why do people decide to migrate? What are the political, social, economic, and environmental factors that cause peop...

This chapter defines the scope of the book's inquiry – understanding the causes and consequences of international labor migration for the global political economy. We summarize existing contributions to understanding the role of migrants in the global economy, illustrating the challenges to be taken up in the manuscript. Importantly, we discuss sco...

Why do people migrate? We review existing answers that focus on the role of economics and social networks. This work fails to appreciate that, all else equal, far more people remain at home than express an interest in moving abroad. Focusing on political conditions, we argue that political conditions and institutions are just as important to unders...

Migrants not only foster investment capital flows toward their home countries; they also invest in their families by sending remittances back to their households. We begin this chapter with a review of the literature on the reasons why migrants remit, as well as the economic and political benefits of their remittances. Our primary contribution focu...

It is no secret that migrant destination countries have become increasingly interested in regulating migrant inflows. We discuss in this chapter some potential tools of migration management suggested by other scholars – notably, border restrictions and fortification, foreign aid, and bilateral trade agreements. We turn the conversation toward a dif...

How can governments implement foreign economic policies that are popular among political elites but unpopular among their voters? Studying international financial rescues, we argue that governments strategically frame policies in an attempt to minimize their expected political costs, which increases their ability to implement those policies success...

Existing literature on cross-national variation in violence has paid little attention to the transnational transmission of crime. One such channel are the forced returns of migrants with a criminal record in their countries of temporary residence. Responding to this research gap, we study the effect of US deportations of convicts on levels of viole...

The aim of this article is to investigate whether or not and how immigration policies affect immigration flows. Such policy impacts have hardly been investigated so far as the necessary data is lacking. For the first time, two new datasets are combined to systematically measure immigration policies and bilateral migration flows for 33 Organisation...

The tension between global economic integration and ethnocentrism is a growing political force across industrialized countries. Whereas extant research emphasizes ethnocentrism’s influence on individual attitudes, we show that ethnocentrism has direct economic costs. We exploit strong public support for greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) to...

Political economy scholarship on foreign direct investment (FDI) emphasizes variation in host country political risk but overlooks variation in investors' sensitivity to political risk. We show that relational contracting, relationship-based contract enforcement, is more efficient for high-risk, human capital-intensive activities for which the cost...

As soon as the sovereign debt crisis began, it was widely understood that Germany’s response would dictate its ultimate resolution. Whereas the initial round of bailouts stabilized markets and preserved the Euro, the purpose of the second Greek bailout is less clear. We argue that the German government’s decision to support a second Greek bailout r...

Political rights provided to immigrants by host countries have received much attention in the literature. Less attention, however, has been paid to the extension of extraterritorial rights by home countries. In this article, I focus on a common type of right provided by home countries to their expatriates—the right of dual citizenship. Dual citizen...

This article sheds light on the determinants of international child adoption: a unique flow of migrants characterized by considerable transaction costs. We argue adoption flows are shaped in part by the prospective adoptive parents' desire to reduce those costs and ensure a suc-cessfully completed adoption. Drawing on dyadic panel data over the per...

When it comes to linkages between migration and the global allocation of foreign development assistance, the size of the immigrant population from a recipient country residing in a donor country is an important determinant of dyadic aid commitments. Two complementary hypotheses probe this relationship. First, donors use foreign aid to achieve their...

Does language choice attract foreign direct investment (FDI), and if so, how? We argue that language—a dynamic instrument for reducing transaction costs—can influence investors' decision to allocate capital. Potential host countries attract investments by coordinating their domestic language policies—especially those in education—to match the langu...

Research on the political economy of immigration overlooks the specificity of human capital in skilled occupations and its implications for immigration preferences and policymaking. Conclusions that skilled Americans are unconcerned about labor market competition from skilled migrants build on a simple dichotomy between high and low skill migrants....

We undertake an individual-level analysis of mass political behavior toward sovereign debt resettlement by leveraging the unique circumstances of a 2011 referendum on debt repayment in Iceland. This allows us to engage broader questions about mass international political economy. Against the recent thrust of a growing literature, we find evidence o...

We undertake an individual-level analysis of mass political behavior toward sovereign debt resettlement by leveraging the unique circumstances of a 2011 referendum on debt repayment in Iceland. This allows us to engage broader questions about mass international political economy. Against the recent thrust of a growing literature, we find evidence o...

A growing portion of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows takes the form of cross-border flows of venture capital (VC). VC investors supply financing and entrepreneurial expertise to new firms in exchange for equity. VC investors apply their business acumen to raise firms' value, and then sell their equity stake at a profit. Successful VC relies h...

Each year, Congress authorizes the transfer of approximately $27 billion to foreign countries in the form of foreign development assistance. Despite the "foreign aid" label, much of this money remains in the United States, flowing to individuals and corporations who contract with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and other gover...

What explains cross-national patterns of international portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI)? While existing explanations focus on the credibility of a policy maker's commitment, we emphasize the role of diaspora networks. We hypothesize that diaspora networks—connections between migrants residing in investing countries and their home count...

This paper assesses donor "need-orientation" — the degree to which humanitarian motives matter for aid allocation decisions made by bilateral and multilateral aid donors. Scholars have typically tested the responsiveness of various aid donors to recipient need by observing whether donor aid flows typically go to poorer countries. However, even amon...

We show that political economy factors play an important role in shaping the exchange rate policies of transition economies. We argue that tradables producers prefer a floating rate to allow active exchange rate policy to affect their competitiveness, while internationally exposed sectors prefer a fixed rate to provide currency stability. We find s...

Bilateral flows of international migrants exhibit tremendous variance both across destination countries and over time. We argue that along with economic and social conditions migrants consider the political environment when choosing among various destinations. Specifically we hypothesize that a country’s citizenship policy regime and the strength o...

This paper examines the link between immigration and foreign aid. Recipient countries with more migrants living in a donor, on average, receive more foreign aid from the donor. We find evidence that donors use aid as a tool in their broader immigration policy, seeking to slow unwanted immigration. However, we also find evidence that diaspora commun...

While it is widely acknowledged that political factors contribute to currency crises there have been few efforts at using political variables to improve crisis forecasts. We discuss ways in which political factors can be incorporated into theoretical models of crises, and develop testable hypotheses relating variations in political variables to var...

The relationship between democracy and globalization has been a subject of both scholarly and policy debate. Some argue that the two go hand in hand - that unrestricted international transactions encourage political accountability and transparency and that politically free societies are least likely to restrict the mobility of goods and services. B...

While it is generally recognized that we live in an increasingly globalized world, it is also abundantly evident that the effects of globalization are unequal. Despite the enormous size of global capital markets—as evidenced by figure 1—peoples, states and economies have varying degrees of access to international financial markets. The ability of p...

Economic conditions condition the strategic context of cabinet terminations. In turn, information about cabinet terminations inform how economic actors evaluate the government's commitment to specific policies, affecting overall economic performance. In order to understand how the economy affects cabinet terminations, therefore, we must account for...

Referendum votes on adoption of the euro in Denmark (2000) and Sweden (2003) provide unprecedented natural experiments through which to study the political economy of money. Using exit polling data and multinomial logit statistical models that allow us to separate preferences for the euro from preferences for the European Union (EU), we test econom...

We examine the relationship between government partisanship, interest rates and the mean and volatility of stock prices in the United States and United Kingdom. We suggest that traders in the stock market rationally expect higher (lower) post-electoral interest rates during the incumbency of the left-wing (right-wing) party - Democrats and Labor (R...

The relationship between democracy and globalisation has been the focus of substantial policy and academic debate. Some argue that democracy and globalisation go hand in hand suggesting that unrestricted international transactions leads to increased political accountability and transparency. And, politically free societies are likely to have minima...

We examine the impact of minority governments on the choice of exchange rate regime in advanced OECD democracies after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. We demonstrate that leaders of minority governments had a lower political discount factor in office than majority governments across advanced OECD democracies and use that finding to motiva...

Currency crises are costly phenomena that have been exceptionally difficult to explain and predict. We comprehensively examine the relationship between political institutions and currency crises and emphasize the causal linkage between institutions, expectations, and crises. Specifically, we argue that institutional variables particularly divided g...

We investigate the impact of parliamentary political processes on exchange rate volatility. During periods of potential political change, currency traders have less certainty about the future of government policy. Consequently, these periods will be associated with higher volatility—a measure of the predictability of exchange rate movements. We est...

This article examines the relationship between government popularity and exchange rate movements in Britain since 1987. It argues that: (1) unexpected drops in the government's public support lead to currency depreciations and increased exchange rate volatility, and (2) unanticipated depreciations hurt the government's public support. It estimates...

We construct a model of speculative trading to examine how the mean and volatility of stock prices is affected both by government partisanship and by traders' expectations of electoral victory by the right-wing or left-wing party. Our model predicts that rational expectations of higher inflation under left-wing administrations lowers the volume of...

We construct a model of speculative trading to examine how the mean and volatility of stock prices is affected both by government partisanship and by traders' expectations of electoral victory by the right-wing or left-wing party. Our model predicts that rational expectations of higher inflation under left-wing administrations lowers the volume of...

Existing research on electoral politics and financial markets predicts that when investors expect left parties - Democrats (US), Labor (UK) - to win elections, market volatility increases. In addition, current econometric research on stock market volatility suggests that Markov-switching models provide more accurate volatility forecasts and fit sto...

We argue that political science theory can provide insight into the information available to market actors about the partisan and policy consequences of political events and, in turn, how markets process this information. In the absence of a predictable political equilibrium (i.e., where no equilibria exist or where there are multiple equilibrium),...

Extant research has shown that cross-national variations in the level of a country ’s democracy tend to be related to its propensity to be involved in external conflict. The dyadic version of the theory of democratic peace contends that democracies rarely, if ever, fight each other, and it is strongly supported by the available evidence. The monadi...

Speculative currency attacks are a regular feature of the international political economy. Nevertheless, not all speculative attacks result in a devalued currency. In many cases, politicians were willing and able to defend the exchange rate peg. I develop a model of strategic interaction between speculators in currency markets and policymakers in g...

Much ink has been spilled over the connections between capital account liberalization and growth. One reason that previous studies have been inconclusive, we show, is their failure to account for the impact of crises on growth and for the capacity of controls to limit those disruptive output effects. Accounting for these influences, it appears that...

We argue that political science theory can provide insight into the information available to market actors about the partisan and policy consequences of political events and, in turn, how markets process this information. In the absence of a predictable political equilibrium (i.e., where no equilibria exist or where there are multiple equilibrium),...

From the end ofWorld War II until 1971, exchange-rate practices were governed by the BrettonWoods system (or the dollar standard) an international regime of fixed exchange rates with the U.S. dollar serving as the anchor currency. The system operated smoothly through the 1950s, but strains appeared in the 1960s, reflecting a combination of the gold...

In the past twenty-five years, the volume of internationalexchange-rate markets has increased exponentially. In 1996, transactionsin these markets totaled well over $1 trillion each day. Consequently,the collective impact of decisions by currency traders can placetremendous pressure on a country s exchange rate. Most famously,speculative attacks on...

We argue that political parties will choose monetary institutions inorder to help them win elections and retain of ce. Increased levels ofeconomic openness in the industrial democracies have complicated thepursuit of of ce by altering the policy preferences of constituents anddecreasing the ability of cabinet ministers to deliver promised economico...

We consider the political economy of exchange rate choice and its implications for economic growth from an historical perspective. Previous studies have tended to find only a weak association between the choice of exchange rate regime on the one hand and growth and cohesion on the other. Our findings confirm this negative result, but then go on to...

In contradiction of the efficient markets hypothesis, empirical studies conclude that the forward exchange rate-the price of the currency deliverable thirty days in the future-is a biased predictor of the future spot exchange rate. Many financial economists attribute this bias to the existence of a risk premium. We argue that democratic political e...

This paper examines the relationship between politics and speculative attacks in developing countries. While a burgeoning literature focuses on the economic determinants of speculative behavior, little attention has been paid to the importance of political factors. I examine the response of international capital markets to electoral and partisan ch...

Policymakers use a fixed exchange rate regime to signal their commitment to low inflation and to exchange rate stability. Increasing economic integration and the rise of democratic institutions make it more difficult for policymakers to maintain the credibility of this commitment. We use binary probit (with a variety of corrections for autocorrelat...

Human Rights Quarterly 21.2 (1999) 403-443 Since World War II the proliferation of international human rights agreements has been an unprecedented development in the history of international law. Organizations like Amnesty International, Freedom House, and the US State Department first issued global reports on human rights practices in the 1970s. M...

This paper examines the utility of and preference for controls on short-term capital. Recent work in international political economy has argued that the increasing internationalization of finance has constrained the ability of governments to pursue independent monetary policies. For the most part this conclusion has been reached through an examinat...

Interest in the relationship between political democracy and economic growth has been long-standing. fn2 Recently, there has been an explosion of empirical research emanating from political science and economics that once again attempts to understand the relationship between democracy and economic growth. The goal in much of this research has been...

Cultural variables are incorporated into a baseline endogenous economic growth model. Cultural attitudes toward achievement and thrift have a positive effect on economic growth. Cultural attitudes concerning postmaterialism have a negative effect on economic growth. Ordinary least squares regression is used to test economic and cultural models of g...

In attempting to identify institutional factors that influence a nation's per capita growth rate, scholarship in political science has focused almost ex clusively on differences in political regimes. This article argues that if we are interested in understanding why some nations grow faster than others, then we must redirect our inquiry and focus o...

The authors examine the conditions under which democratic events, including elections, cabinet formations, and government dissolutions, affect asset markets. Where these events have less predictable outcomes, market returns are depressed and volatility increases. In contrast, where market actors can forecast the result, returns do not exhibit any u...

for helpful comments, the Academy for Entrepreneurial Leadership at the University of Illinois for funding for this project, and Chera LaForge for excellent research assistance.

as well as audiences at the University of Florida and Essex University for constructive comments. Any errors are the fault of the authors alone. 2 Abstract The claim that increased democratic freedom leads to increased economic growth has been widely advanced. Recent empirical evidence has, however, produced somewhat of a puzzle. As the world's nat...

Speculative currency attacks are a regular feature of the international political economy. Nevertheless, not all speculative attacks result in a devalued currency. Between January 1985 and December 1998 in 90 emerging economies, there were 88 speculative attacks but only 42 of them resulted in devaluations. The remaining 46 attacks did not lead to...

for extremely valuable comments. All errors are my own. Abstract Financial sectors in the developing world pressure governments to open capital accounts, a policy which standard theories of open economy politics predicts would harm their interests. I explain this apparent contradiction by studying international financial intermediation, showing tha...

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that the forward exchange rate--the price of the currency deliverable 30 days in the future--should be an unbiased predictor of the future spot exchange rate. Empirical studies, however, conclude that the forward rate is biased. We argue that democratic political processes affect the forward rate bias. In pa...

Existing theoretical research on electoral politics and financial markets predict that when investors expect left parties –Democrats (US), Labor (UK)—to win elections market volatility increases. In addition, current econometric research on stock market volatility suggests that Markov-Switching models provide more accurate volatility forecasts and...

two anonymous referees. Chad Atkinson and Sang-Hyun Lee provided research assistance.

Abstract will be provided by author.

We construct a model of speculative trading to examine how the mean and volatility of stock prices is affected both by government partisanship and by traders' expectations of electoral victory by the right- wing or left-wing party. Our model predicts that rational expectations of higher inflation under left-wing administrations lowers the volume of...

We construct a model of speculative trading to examine how the mean and volatility of stock prices is affected both by the partisan composition of the government and by traders' expectations of electoral victory by right-wing or left-wing parties. In contrast to the literature, our model predicts that rational expectations of higher inflation and i...

Abstract will be provided by author.

Abstract will be provided by author.

Abstract will be provided by author.

Abstract will be provided by author.

Abstract will be provided by author.

Abstract will be provided by author.

Thesis (Ph. D. in Political Science)--Vanderbilt University, 1993. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 116-133).