David Anthony Illingworth

California State University, Long Beach | CSULB · Department of Psychology

The reported experiment examined perspective taking and information paucity as candidate interventions to enhance performance in a counterfactual forecasting task. We hypothesized that these interventions would increase the number and diversity of hypotheses generated in support of counterfactual reasoning and, in turn, improve accuracy in forecast...

Adoption and use of misspecified models can lead to impoverished decision-making—a phenomenon we term model blindness. A series of two experiments investigated the consequences of model blindness on human decision-making and performance and how those consequences can be mitigated via an explainable AI (XAI) intervention. The experiments implemented...

Theories of how people value and search for information share the assumption that beliefs give rise to the perceived value of information. However, few studies have directly addressed the pre-search processes that influence information-foraging behavior. This experiment examined the influence of pre-search belief updating on the perceived value of...

Model-Based Decision Support Systems (MDSS) are ubiquitous in many high-consequence domains like emergency management and military command and control. This paper proposes a framework of model-blindness imposed by MDSS via filtering relevant information and presenting irrelevant information to the decision-maker, causing performance degradation. Th...

HyWorM is an approach and implementation for guiding analytic sensemaking processes using the HyGene model of human hypothesis generation. It is an evolution of the RAMPAGE Workflow Monitor (WorM) that monitors and guides analysts in the production of counterfactual forecasts, dynamically adapting work prompts and the revelation of new evidence to...

An essential component to intelligence analysis is inferring an explanation for uncertain, contradictory, and incomplete data. In order to arrive at the best explanation, effective analysts in any discipline conduct an iterative, convergent broadening and narrowing hypothesis assessment using their own tradecraft. Based on this observation, we deve...

Objective The reported study evaluated a novel approach to aiding geospatial reasoning and decision making. Background Impact mapping aims to alleviate the cognitive demands of geospatial tasks in part by externalizing data in the form of an integrated decision surface. This is achieved by aggregating data across multiple sources of information an...

Socioeconomic status (SES) has a measurable impact on many educational outcomes and likely also influences computer science (CS) achievement. We present a novel model to account for the observed connections between SES and CS achievement. We examined possible mediating variables between SES and CS achievement, including spatial ability and access t...

Recent developments in the field of telehealth suggest that novel technologies may ameliorate patients’ limited access to clinicians capable of conducting ASD assessments (Koch, 2006). Specifically, studies have shown that parents can capture informative behaviors that aid in autism assessment by using phone-based applications, and use of these vid...

This study investigated the influence of incidental search costs on decisions to terminate information acquisition and the valuation of information sources. Participants who paid for information in a sequential hypothesis testing, medical diagnosis task terminated search earlier than those who acquired information without incidental costs. This fin...

Although temporal dynamics are inherent aspects of diagnostic tasks, few studies have investigated how various aspects of time course influence hypothesis generation. An experiment is reported that demonstrates that working memory dynamics operating during serial data acquisition bias hypothesis generation. The presentation rate (and order) of a se...

Certain research tasks require extracting data points from graphs and charts. Using 91 graphs that presented results from single-case designs, we investigated whether pairs of coders extract similar data from the same graphs (reliability), and whether the extracted data match numerical descriptions of the graph that the original author may have pre...