David Denver

• Lancaster University

This highlights many voters’ reliance on general impressions of parties, and outlines the various sources of these impressions or images. Notable among these are party leaders: important influences on party choice in their own right but also a prominent way in which voters’ judge the priorities and performance of parties.

Where you live has its own influence on how you vote. Spatial variations in party choice—by region, level of urbanisation, constituency (including electoral context) and neighbourhoods—are described and potential explanations evaluated.

This examines the role of issues in British elections. It argues that people generally vote on broader ideological outlooks rather than specific issue positions, while acknowledging Brexit as an important exception to this rule. The distinction between valence and position issues is introduced, the former – issues of competence, often on the econom...

Referendums are shown to be a more ad hoc part of the British electoral process, held when governments want or need to. Using the three major referendums of the last decade, the chapter highlights the variations in voter engagement and interest as well as the similarities and differences between referendum and election voting.

After a discussion of the difficulties in measuring turnout, variations across types of elections, time and constituencies are analysed. Survey evidence relating to non-voting is presented and its consequences considered. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the effectiveness of recent attempts to improve turnout levels.

The chapter provides an overview of significant developments in British elections since the 1950s. The key tools and methods of electoral analysis are described and and the major theories underlying explanations of electoral behaviour are introduced.

This chapter collects the various influences on voting identified in previous chapters and examines their importance in the 2019 general election. It highlights the unusual power of the Brexit issue and the unusual weakness of economic voting. A distinction is drawn between factors explaining individual vote choice and factors explaining election o...

This chapter highlights the long-term shift from a stable, two-party system to a more volatile situation in which, although those two parties remain the major players, they are more vulnerable. The joint processes of class and partisan dealignment are pinpointed as the reason for this greater instability.

The changing nature of national election campaigning is explored and in this context the methods, performance and impact of opinion polls are assessed as well as the effects of the national press and television. The nature and impact of local and digital campaigning are also described and assessed.

The operation of the first-past-the-post system in Britain is analysed and arguments for and against the system reviewed. The chapter also considers how British voters have reacted when other systems—notably MMP and STV—are used.

How do voters in Britain decide which party to vote for in elections? Have age and education replaced class as the social basis for voting? Are elections now ‘presidentialised’, with voters simply choosing between party leaders? What role do the media, new and old, play in all of this? The authors examine these and other questions in the fourth edi...

The years immediately after the 2015 general election were dominated by another vote, held in 2016. In 2013, the electoral challenge from UKIP had forced David Cameron to promise an in–out referendum on the EU should his party win the next general election. Cameron fulfilled his promise, after negotiations with the EU which only partially addressed...

This chapter concerns the British general elections of February 1974, October 1974, and 1979 during what came to be known as the ‘Decade of Dealignment’. The first two contests were closely fought, resulting in no overall majority (February 1974) and a slender Labour majority (October 1974). However, the resulting Labour governments were beset by s...

This chapter concerns the British general elections of 1964, 1966, and 1970. The first contest ended thirteen years of Conservative government, although Labour secured an overall majority of just four seats. The 1966 election resulted in a comfortable victory for Labour, which was expected to win again in 1970. Instead, the Conservatives confounded...

This book provides a concise account of general elections during more than five tumultuous decades in British politics. Beginning in 1964, when partisan allegiances in the UK were relatively stable, it ends in 2019 when the volatility of voters was illustrated by the success of Conservative Party candidates in constituencies which had previously be...

This chapter concerns the British general elections of 1983, 1987, and 1992. All three were won by the Conservatives. In 1983, the party was returned with a majority of 144 seats, despite having been deeply unpopular for much of its term of office thanks to economic recession and an unprecedented post-war level of unemployment. The scale of the vic...

This chapter examines the closely fought elections of 2010 and 2015, the first of which produced the first British coalition government since 1945 in a period which saw the continued fragmentation of the party system and the rise of United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the Scottish National Party (SNP).Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as P...

This chapter sums up the preceding discussion and examines the radical changes in the nature of electoral competition in the UK since 1964. In particular, it assesses the impact on campaigning of social media and the Internet. It also discusses the impact of social change on voting behaviour over the years, as well as the transformation of politica...

This chapter covers the three consecutive election victories recorded by ‘New’ Labour, under Tony Blair, and assesses the reasons for the party’s remarkable run of success after almost two decades in opposition. The key events of the 1992–7 parliament are recorded, showing how John Major’s Conservatives lost their reputation for economic competence...

Janice Morphet . Beyond Brexit? How to Assess the UK's Future. Shorts Insights. Bristol: Policy Press, 2017. Pp. 179. $12.34 (cloth). - Volume 57 Issue 2 - David Denver

The Scottish National Party's success in extending the franchise to 16 and 17 year olds in next year's independence referendum in Scotland will re-awaken calls for the voting age to be lowered for all elections in the UK. David Denver argues that such a change would be misguided and wrong.

Prime ministers have been crucial figures in British politics for nearly three centuries and the media now give them more prominence than ever. Polling data on prime ministerial popularity suggest that there has been an increasing tendency for voters to take a negative view of the incumbent prime minister. Moreover, almost every post‐war premier ha...

In order to appreciate fully the psephological position of the Conservative Party under David Cameron, we first need to examine the electoral history of the party since it was last in power. When David Cameron became its leader in December 2005 the Conservative Party had been in the electoral doldrums for 13 years and under three different leaders...

Postal voting was first made available ‘on demand’ in 2000. David Denver analyses the impact of voting by post in the decade since. Postal voting was first made available ‘on demand’ by Labour in 2000. Analysing the impact of voting by post in the decade since, David Denver finds that electoral fraud has increased and, surprisingly, Conservatives –...

Most survey-based research on campaign effects in British elections has focussed on exposure to the campaign. Far less attention has been given to how the campaign is perceived, although American research on the effects of negative campaigning suggests that this is a potentially important area. The article investigates the extent to which vote choi...

Between 2005 and 2010, despite some ‘random shocks’ caused by the emergence of new party leaders, the trends in party support suggested a return to the traditional inter-election cycle. During the election campaign, however, there were dramatic changes as the popularity of Liberal Democrat leader, Nick Clegg, increased sharply. In terms of votes, t...

The Single Transferable Vote (STV) has featured prominently in debates on electoral reform in Britain but until now there has been little hard evidence on how British voters might react to this electoral system. This has changed with the introduction of STV for the 2007 Scottish local government elections, which represented the first use of the sys...

Although there were a number of other administrative problems, the unusually large number of ballots rejected in the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections attracted considerable media interest and comment and provoked a special enquiry by the Electoral Commission. It is generally accepted that the new design of the ballot paper was the major factor in...

This article examines changes in the nature of constituency campaigning in Britain over the four general elections between 1992 and 2005. Using quantitative scales of traditional and modern forms of campaigning, the analysis suggests that, in general, traditional campaigning has declined in importance and that there has been increasing reliance on...

In this article we use evidence from the Scottish Election Study 2007 to build an explanation for the narrow SNP victory in the Holyrood election. The theoretical focus is on valence models of voting, which are increasingly important in Scotland following dealignment and ideological convergence in the party system, and as Scottish governments flex...

Writing shortly after the 1992 general election which resulted in a fourth consecutive victory for the Conservatives, Anthony King (1993) linked the UK with Japan as examples of ‘democratic one-party states’ (p. 224). The main British Election Study (BES) report on the same election was entitled Labour’s Last Chance? (Heath et al., 1994) and in the...

This article explores the electoral performance of minor party and Independent candidates in Scottish local elections from 1974 to 2007. This is a period which began with a major restructuring of local government and ended with a change in the electoral system from first-past-the-post to the single transferable vote. It encompasses a second restruc...

There is robust evidence, spanning more than 30 years, that people who are married turn out to vote in greater proportions than do those who are single, separated, divorced or live with a partner. The difference generally persists even when age and other social characteristics are taken into account. Previous explanations for this phenomenon have f...

Drawing upon ideas formulated with national-level campaigning in mind and also analyses of district or local-level campaigning, a conceptual framework to assist in analysing the development of district-level campaigning is presented. The proposed framework is further amplified, explained and tested using quantitative and qualitative data collected...

Hugh Bochel As in 1999 and 2003, the 2007 elections for Scottish local councils were held on the same day (May 3 rd) as the Scottish Parliament elections. This was despite the fact that in the interim the Arbuthnott Commission, set up to report on elections in Scotland, had firmly recommended the 'decoupling' of the two sets of elections (Commissio...

Current electoral analysis exemplified by authors such as Clarke et al. in Political Choice in Britain (2004) explains voting behaviour in terms rather different from those derived from the pioneering work of Butler and Stokes' Political Change in Britain, first published in 1969. While acknowledging that short-term and ephemeral factors may have s...

The outcome of the 2007 elections in Scotland, which saw the SNP replacing Labour as the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, clearly marked a significant departure in Scottish politics. These were the first national elections in more than fifty years in which Labour did not emerge as the most popular party in Scotland. The SNP leader, Alex Sa...

Over the last fifteen years or so, despite using different methodological approaches and empirical indicators, three different research teams have consistently demonstrated that in general Elections well-organised and intense election campaigns at constituency level can yield electoral benefits (see, for example Whiteley & Seyd, 1994; Pattie et al....

Over the past decade, clear evidence has been produced showing that effective constituency campaigning in British general elections can lead to better electoral performance. This evidence has challenged the received wisdom that only national campaigning is significant and that efforts at local level are meaningless rituals. Denver et al. have focus...

Despite their central role in the electoral process, constituency agents have been largely overlooked by political scientists and this article seeks to rectify the omission. It sketches the origins and development of the role of agent from the late 19th century and suggests that a serious rethink of the role took place in the 1990s. Survey-based ev...

The article examines the impact of electoral results on party membership and activity. Previous studies have focused on the long-term effects of electoral success or failure, suggesting that they may produce a spiral of demobilization or mobilization. The article shows that the dramatic change of electoral fortunes experienced by British parties at...

Five aspects of local elections in Britain over a thirty year period are examined. First, the process of party politicisation has seen the growth of more three-party systems whilst in parts of the Celtic fringe electors may have a choice of at least four parties. The increase in party candidates has had an important impact on the second aspect cons...

Along with a number of other researchers, Patrick Seyd and Paul Whiteley have consistently argued that constituency campaigning in Britain influences constituency election outcomes. In recent work, however, they have denied that the major efforts made by the Labour Party’s national headquarters to target resources and expertise into key seats in th...

Elections for the Scottish Parliament and for all Scottish local authorities were held on the same day in 1999 and 2003, allowing a more detailed exploration of turnout variations than has been possible before. On both occasions, turnout in the two sets of elections was almost identical so that reported ward turnout at local level also indicates wa...

The third round of elections for the 32 unitary Scottish local councils established in 1995 took place on May 1st 2003. As in the previous round in 1999, these were held on the same day as the Scottish Parliament elections. Whereas in Wales council elections were postponed in order to avoid a clash with elections for the National Assembly, the Scot...

Along with a number of other researchers, Patrick Seyd and Paul Whiteley have consistently argued that constituency campaigning in Britain influences constituency election outcomes. In recent work, however, they have denied that the major efforts made by the Labour Party’s national headquarters to target resources and expertise into key seats in th...

Political parties maintain local organisations and recruit members mainly to fight elections. For most of the post-war period, however, the dominant view among analysts has been that constituency campaigning in British general elections has little or no effect on election outcomes. This view has been challenged over the last ten years or so. Eviden...

It is generally agreed that there is a positive relationship between constituency marginality and turnout in general elections and this is confirmed when data covering all elections from 1951 are analysed. The strength of the relationship varies, however, depending upon which party is in government. This arises because of complex relationships betw...