Daniel Curtis Nepstad

• PhD
• Managing Director at Earth Innovation Institute

Increasing global population and rising consumption are placing unprecedent demands on agriculture and natural resources. In South America, the livestock industry is heavily impacting the environment, but also delivers important socioeconomic benefits to rural populations. Recently, there has been strong debate on how to define land suitability for...

Jurisdictional REDD+ (JR) is based on the premise that results-based flows of finance can drive changes in complex land-use systems across entire nations or subnational jurisdictions to achieve large-scale reductions in carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The early JR experiments demonstrate that the promise of payments is,...

Drought, fire, and windstorms can interact to degrade tropical forests and the ecosystem services they provide, but how these forests recover after catastrophic disturbance events remains relatively unknown. Here, we analyze multi‐year measurements of vegetation dynamics and function (fluxes of CO2 and H2O) in forests recovering from 7 years of con...

Episodic multi-year droughts fundamentally alter the dynamics, functioning, and structure of Amazonian forests. However, the capacity of individual plant species to withstand intense drought regimes remains unclear. Here, we evaluated ecophysiological responses from a forest community where we sampled 83 woody plant species during 5 years of experi...

High levels of species diversity hamper current understanding of how tropical forests may respond to environmental change. In the tropics, water availability is a leading driver of the diversity and distribution of tree species, suggesting that many tropical taxa may be physiologically incapable of tolerating dry conditions, and that their distribu...

Companies that are ready to collaborate with local governments and farmers to build sustainable development strategies can translate their deforestation pledges into lasting solutions.

The interaction between droughts and land-use fires threaten the carbon stocks, climate regulatory functions, and biodiversity of Amazon forests, particularly in the southeast, where deforestation and land-use ignitions are high. Repeated, severe, or combined fires and droughts result in tropical forest degradation via nonlinear dynamics and may le...

The recent 70% decline in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon suggests that it is possible to manage the advance of a vast agricultural frontier. Enforcement of laws, interventions in soy and beef supply chains, restrictions on access to credit, and expansion of protected areas appear to have contributed to this decline, as did a decline in the d...

Significance Climate change alone is unlikely to drive severe tropical forest degradation in the next few decades, but an alternative process associated with severe weather and forest fires is already operating in southeastern Amazonia. Recent droughts caused greatly elevated fire-induced tree mortality in a fire experiment and widespread regional...

The triple, intertwined challenges of climate change, the conversion of tropical forests to crop lands and grazing pastures, and the shortage of new arable land demand urgent solutions. The main approaches for increasing food production while sparing forests and lowering carbon emissions include sustainable supply chain initiatives, domestic polici...

Background: The impact of fire on carbon cycling in tropical forests is potentially large, but remains poorly quantified, particularly in the locality of the transition forests that mark the boundaries between humid forests and savannas. Aims: To present the first comprehensive description of the impact of repeated low intensity, understorey fire o...

A report to the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF)

Aumentar la producción terrestre y a la vez reducir la deforestación, degradación forestal, emisión de gases de efecto invernadero y pobreza rural.

Land-use regulations are a critical component of forest governance and conservation strategies, but their effectiveness in shaping landholder behaviour is poorly understood. We conducted a spatial and temporal analysis of the Brazilian Forest Code (BFC) to understand the patterns of regulatory compliance over time and across changes in the policy,...

Climate change and rapidly escalating global demand for food, fuel, fibre and feed present seemingly contradictory challenges to humanity. Can greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use, more than one-fourth of the global total, decline as growth in land-based production accelerates? This review examines the status of two major international init...

Changes in climate and land use that interact synergistically to increase fire frequencies and intensities in tropical regions are predicted to drive forests to new grass-dominated stable states. To reveal the mechanisms for such a transition, we established 50 ha plots in a transitional forest in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon to different fire...

Tropical rainforest regions have large hydropower generation potential that figures prominently in many nations' energy growth strategies. Feasibility studies of hydropower plants typically ignore the effect of future deforestation or assume that deforestation will have a positive effect on river discharge and energy generation resulting from decli...

Anthropogenic understorey fires affect large areas of tropical forest, yet their effects on woody plant regeneration post-fire remain poorly understood. We examined the effects of repeated experimental fires on woody stem (less than 1 cm at base) mortality, recruitment, species diversity, community similarity and regeneration mode (seed versus spro...

Fed by demand for beef within Brazil and in global markets, the Brazilian herd grew from 147 million head of cattle in 1990 to ≈200 million in 2007. Eighty-three percent of this expansion occurred in the Amazon and this trend is expected to continue as the industry bounces back from a recent agricultural downturn. Intensification of the cattle indu...

Understory fire modeling is a key tool to investigate the cornerstone concept of landscape ecology, i.e. how ecological processes relate to landscape structure and dynamics. Within this context, we developed FISC—a model that simulates fire ignition and spread and its effects on the forest carbon balance. FISC is dynamically coupled to a land-use c...

Large-scale wildfires are expected to accelerate forest dieback in Amazônia, but the fire vulnerability of tree species remains uncertain, in part due to the lack of studies relating fire-induced mortality to both fire behavior and plant traits. To address this gap, we established two sets of experiments in southern Amazonia. First, we tested which...

Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazonia, International Program, 3180 18th Street, San Francisco, CA 94110, U.S.A.,ˆemail dnepstad@ipam.org.br†The Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540, U.S.A.‡Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) policies, projects, and interventions are among the most prominent of recent attempts to mitigate climate change. Because REDD+ projects focus on forests, they simultaneously affect socioeconomic and ecological outcomes at local, subnational, national, regional, and global levels....

Brazil has exercised a leadership in the International scene about climate change mitigation and adaptation. Internally, it has been demonstrating institutional, legal and technical capacity to monitor and reduce deforestation in the Amazon, capacities also required to the development of a national Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest D...

Anthropogenic understory fires have affected large areas of tropical forest in recent decades, particularly during severe droughts. Yet, the mechanisms that control fire-induced mortality of tropical trees and lianas remain ambiguous due to the challenges associated with documenting mortality given variation in fire behavior and forest heterogeneit...

Background/Question/Methods To assess the effects of changing climate on lowland tropical rainforests in the Amazon, a throughfall reduction experiment was conducted in the Tapajos National Forest, Para, Brazil from 1999 to 2006. Rainfall, throughfall, litter leachate, and 25 and 200 cm soil solutions were collected in two 1-ha plots for 1 year p...

Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems, the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the...

Rooting depth affects soil profiles of water uptake and carbon inputs. Here we explore the importance of deep roots in a mature tropical forest of eastern Amazonia, where a throughfall exclusion experiment was conducted to test the resilience of the forest to experimentally induced drought. We hypothesized that soil water depletion occurred below t...

In 2010, dry-season rainfall was low across Amazonia, with apparent similarities to the major 2005 drought. We analyzed a decade of satellite-derived rainfall data to compare both events. Standardized anomalies of dry-season rainfall showed that 57% of Amazonia had low rainfall in 2010 as compared with 37% in 2005 (≤–1 standard deviation from long-...

Information on the distribution of tropical forests is critical to decision-making on a host of globally significant issues ranging from climate stabilization and biodiversity conservation to poverty reduction and human health. The majority of tropical nations need high-resolution, satellite-based maps of their forests as the international communit...

Aragão and Shimabukuro (Reports, 4 June 2010, p. 1275) reported that fires increase in agricultural frontiers even as deforestation decreases and concluded that these fires lead to unaccounted carbon emissions under the United Nations climate treaty's tropical deforestation and forest degradation component. Emissions from post-deforestation managem...

Drought exerts a strong influence on tropical forest metabolism, carbon stocks, and ultimately the flux of carbon to the atmosphere. Satellite-based studies have suggested that Amazon forests green up during droughts because of increased sunlight, whereas field studies have reported increased tree mortality during severe droughts. In an effort to r...

*Deep root water uptake in tropical Amazonian forests has been a major discovery during the last 15 yr. However, the effects of extended droughts, which may increase with climate change, on deep soil moisture utilization remain uncertain. *The current study utilized a 1999-2005 record of volumetric water content (VWC) under a throughfall exclusion...

Protected areas (PAs) now shelter 54% of the remaining forests of the Brazilian Amazon and contain 56% of its forest carbon. However, the role of these PAs in reducing carbon fluxes to the atmosphere from deforestation and their associated costs are still uncertain. To fill this gap, we analyzed the effect of each of 595 Brazilian Amazon PAs on def...

We use spatially efficient logit models to explore the role of economic incentives on the expansion of cropland in the Mato Grosso region between 2001 and 2004. An empirical measure for agricultural economic rent is used to quantify the desirability of a particular plot of land, which previous research proxies with variables such as distance to roa...

Recent climate talks in Copenhagen reaffirmed the crucial role of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD). Creating and strengthening indigenous lands and other protected areas represents an effective, practical, and immediate REDD strategy that addresses both biodiversity and climate crises at once.

The United Nations climate treaty may soon include a mechanism for compensating tropical nations that succeed in reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, source of nearly one fifth of global carbon emissions. We review the potential for this mechanism [reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD)] to prov...

Government commitments and market transitions lay the foundation for an effort to save the forest and reduce carbon emission.

Logging has been a much maligned feature of frontier development in the Amazon. Most discussions ignore the fact that logging can be part of a renewable, environmentally benign, and broadly equitable economic activity in these remote places. We estimate there to be some 4.5 +/- 1.35 billion m(3) of commercial timber volume in the Brazilian Amazon t...

Positive aboveground biomass trends have been reported from old-growth forests across the Amazon basin and hypothesized to reflect a large-scale response to exterior forcing. The result could, however, be an artefact due to a sampling bias induced by the nature of forest growth dynamics. Here, we characterize statistically the disturbance process i...

Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drough...

Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drough...

Anthropogenic fire and grass propagules from land use change may prompt an unintended, intractable grass-fire cycle at tropical forest edges. Yet, in the Amazon, the actual extent and mechanisms that drive grass invasion into closed-canopy forests is largely unknown. The Amazon transitional forest, situated between more humid forests to the north a...

The functioning of Amazonian rain forest ecosystems during drought has become a scientific focal point because of associated risks to forest integrity and climate. We review current understanding of drought impacts on Amazon rain forests by summarising the results from two throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments in old-growth rain forests at Caxiua...

The theoretical bases of conservationism and preservation are discussed in this research, based on a fi eld study carried out in the region of Tefé, the Middle Solimões. Twelve communities located in "Varzea" and "Terra Firme" ecosystems were studied, of which six communities have adopted a model of natural resource management, focusing on manageme...

Competition for arable land is now occurring among food, fiber, and fuel production sectors. In the USA, increased corn production for ethanol has come primarily at the expense of reduced soybean production. Only a few countries, mainly Brazil, have appropriate soils, climate, and infrastructure needed for large absolute increases in cropped area i...

An international regime is under negotiation for compensating tropical nations that succeed in lowering their greenhouse gas emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation, which are responsible for approximately one fifth of world-wide carbon emissions. One of the barriers to its success is the participation of countries with current...

Changes in precipitation in the Amazon Basin resulting from regional deforestation, global warming, and El Niño events may affect emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and nitric oxide (NO) from soils. Changes in soil emissions of radiatively important gases could have feedback implications for regional and global c...

The future flora of Amazonia will include significant areas of secondary forest as degraded pastures are abandoned and secondary succession proceeds. The rate at which secondary forests regain carbon (C) stocks and re-establish biogeochemical cycles that resemble those of primary forests will influence the biogeochemistry of the region. Most studie...

Anthropogenic understory fires affect large areas of tropical forest, particularly during severe droughts. Yet, the mechanisms that control tropical forests' susceptibility to fire remain ambiguous. We tested the widely accepted hypothesis that Amazon forest fires increase susceptibility to further burning by conducting a 150 ha fire experiment in...

Industrial production of beef, soybeans, cotton, and biofuels is expanding into the tropical latitudes of South America and may soon reach tropical Africa in the most important agricultural transition since the Green Revolution. This shift is driven by the shortage of land suitable for expansion of cultivation and grazing in the temperate zone, inc...

The role of tropical deforestation in global climate change is a strong justification for its inclusion in the UN's global climate treaty. In order to successfully address deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries, a compensation scheme must include the main actors involved in deforestation and provide incentives for forest stewa...

Access to water reserves in deep soil during drought periods determines whether or not the tropical moist forests of Amazonia will be buffered from the deleterious effects of water deficits. Changing climatic conditions are predicted to increase periods of drought in Amazonian forests and may lead to increased tree mortality, changes in forest comp...

Some model experiments predict a large-scale substitution of Amazon forest by savannah-like vegetation by the end of the twenty-first century. Expanding global demands for biofuels and grains, positive feedbacks in the Amazon forest fire regime and drought may drive a faster process of forest degradation that could lead to a near-term forest diebac...

The Amazon Basin experiences severe droughts that may become more common in the future. Little is known of the effects of such droughts on Amazon forest productivity and carbon allocation. We tested the prediction that severe drought decreases litterfall and wood production but potentially has multiple cancelling effects on belowground production w...

Rainfall excluded during the experiment and histogram with diameter size distributions

Expanded methods

Soybean production is one of the main economic forces driving the expansion of the agricultural frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. To assess the potential for expansion we estimate a model of soybean yield that integrates the major climatic, edaphic, and economic determinants in the Amazon Basin. Yield is modeled as a function of yield as simulated...

"Infrastructure projects are crucial for regional development, but they also bring negative social impacts such as land conflicts, as well as ecological impacts such as deforestation along with carbon emissions and loss of biodiversity. A reason for these negative impacts is that large-scale infrastructure projects lack a process to incorporate pub...

It has recently been projected that agricultural expansion will eliminate 40 percent of Amazon forests during the next 50 years. Previous studies have suggested that such dramatic land cover change can significantly alter the regional and possibly global hydroclimate. Furthermore, projections of vegetation response to increasing atmospheric carbon...

Severe drought episodes such as those associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events influence large areas of tropical forest and may become more frequent in the future. One of the most important forest responses to severe drought is tree mortality, which alters forest structure, composition, carbon content, and flammability, and which...

"Infrastructure projects are crucial for regional development, but they often lack participatory planning processes. As a result, they often generate negative socio-economic and biophysical impacts, threatening local livelihoods as well as environmental conservation. The Amazon is an instructive example, where new infrastructure projects may repeat...

Amazon beef and soybean industries, the primary drivers of Amazon deforestation, are increasingly responsive to economic signals emanating from around the world, such as those associated with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, "mad cow disease") outbreaks and China's economic growth. The expanding role of these economic "teleconnections" (coupl...

Climate, rural economies, and ecosystems are connected in the Amazon basin through complex interactions with important implications for greenhouse gas fluxes, biodiversity, and the well-being of rural people. In the historically severe drought of 2005, drought-induced tree mortality and fire-dependent land uses (cattle ranching, swidden agriculture...

Severe droughts may alter the reproductive phenology of tropical tree species, but our understanding of these effects has been hampered by confounded variation in drought, light and other factors during natural drought events. We used a large-scale experimental reduction of throughfall in an eastern-central Amazon forest to study the phenological r...

Migrants to the Brazilian Amazon frontier arrive individually, but the formation of effective community associations can bind these families together and speed socio-economic development. In this paper we study how formal logging contracts between smallholders and the timber industry affect one aspect of development and organization on the forest f...

Expansion of the cattle and soy industries in the Amazon basin has increased deforestation rates and will soon push all-weather highways into the region's core. In the face of this growing pressure, a comprehensive conservation strategy for the Amazon basin should protect its watersheds, the full range of species and ecosystem diversity, and the st...

Radiocarbon ( ¹⁴ C) provides a measure of the mean age of carbon (C) in roots, or the time elapsed since the C making up root tissues was fixed from the atmosphere. Radiocarbon signatures of live and dead fine (<2 mm diameter) roots in two mature Amazon tropical forests are consistent with average ages of 4–11 years (ranging from <1 to >40 years)....

In this paper, we review the concept of forest sector industrialisation and technology adoption with the goal of identifying reasons that have shaped the technological development, or lack thereof, in the Brazilian forest sector. The image of the timber industry in the Amazon has been one of excessive harvest, deforestation, and arguable misuse of...

Conservation scientists generally agree that many types of protected areas will be needed to protect tropical forests. But little is known of the comparative performance of inhabited and uninhabited reserves in slowing the most extreme form of forest disturbance: conversion to agriculture. We used satellite-based maps of land cover and fire occurre...

The Amazon forest has been converted to a matrix of pristine and modified habitats.Landscape-scale biodiversity conservation requires an understanding of species’ distributions over this matrix to guarantee both effective protection and use for present and future generations. In this study, we evaluated how much of the existing and future planned p...