Daniel Byman

Georgetown University | GU · Walsh School of Foreign Service

The U.S. government list of state sponsors of terrorism is dated, politicized, analytically muddy, and in general not useful for distinguishing which states truly sponsor terrorism and how aggressively they do so. A better list and process would identify different criteria that go into sponsoring terrorism and, in so doing, create multiple de facto...

This article is an update and amplification of the authors' 2001 essay on the impact of individuals on international relations. The article contends that even in the contemporary world, when vast impersonal forces like globalization and the digital revolution appear to be remaking international relations in dramatic ways, leaders are playing a crit...

The Trump administration has an opportunity to counter Iranian influence in the Middle East – but its incompetence could prove disastrous.

Jihadist foreign fighters are frequently described as non-state actors whose prominence challenges the traditional, state-dominated international system and our understanding of it. In practice, however, foreign fighters rely heavily on the very states they reject. Some of the most important foreign fighter movements in the world today receive mass...

The US struggle against global terrorist groups depends heavily on intelligence cooperation, particularly with developing world countries that are autocratic. This dependence creates many problems. Autocratic allies often have politicized security institutions to prevent a coup and maintain the regime in power. Services will be reluctant to coopera...

Many scholars are drawn to political science research with hopes that their ideas will influence important policy debates. Unfortunately, scholars who want to shape policy often do not design research appropriately or take advantage of available conditions and opportunities to advance their ideas. This article identifies the conditions under which...

This article reviews several recent books on the Islamic State in order to understand its goals, motivations, strategy, and vulnerabilities. It argues that the Islamic State's ideology is powerful but also highly instrumental, offering the group legitimacy and recruiting appeal. Raison d'etat often dominates its decisionmaking. The Islamic State's...

Washington should focus on more than just the Islamic State. It should also work to contain the violence in Iraq and Syria to prevent it from spilling over into the wider Middle East.

On the morning of September 11, 2001, the entire world was introduced to Al Qaeda and its enigmatic leader, Osama bin Laden. But the organization that changed the face of terrorism forever and unleashed a whirlwind of counterterrorism activity and two major wars had been on the scene long before that eventful morning. In Al Qaeda, the Islamic State...

Authoritarian states are often surprisingly successful counterinsurgents. In particular, authoritarians often repress on a vast scale and inhibit insurgent organization, transfer populations, have excellent intelligence penetration, and can counter war weariness in ways not available to democracies. Authoritarians, however, come to counterinsurgenc...

What threat do foreign Arab jihadists returning from the war in Syria and Iraq pose to their home states and the broader Arab world? Foreign fighters come back as hardened veterans, steady in the face of danger and skilled in the use of weapons and explosives. While in the conflict zone, they will form networks with other radicals, embrace techniqu...

What is the role of intelligence for counterterrorism? Most studies of counterterrorism ignore the vital role of intelligence, focus only on its most controversial aspects, or fail to recognize how counterterrorism intelligence differs from traditional intelligence issues. This article argues that many of the common criticisms of the CIA and other...

Drawing on organization theory, this article argues that al Qaeda seeks affiliates to expand the scope and scale of its operations, gain the benefits of greater local expertise, better spread innovations, and―most important―endow itself and its mission with greater legitimacy. The conventional wisdom on al Qaeda affiliates emphasizes these benefits...

Conflicts between religious groups are hardly new. But the latest round of sectarian violence arises not from religious doctrine but in large part from the weakness of governments and institutions.

When assessing insurgencies, understanding the role of transnational factors is vital. This article explores how outside powers support an insurgency, focusing on four types of actors: states, diasporas, refugees, and other insurgencies. It also examines the pitfalls and limits of outside support and assesses why such support is so hard to stop. Th...

How do jihadist insurgencies differ from non-jihadist ones? jihadist insurgents, like all insurgents, seek to control the government, need money and weapons, and thrive where government is weak. Yet their cause—jihad at local, regional, and global levels—gives them instant friends and resources, but also built-in enemies and burdens. jihadist insur...

This article examines the initial Western response to the Arab Spring. Traditional interests – oil, counterterrorism, containing Iran, and the security of Israel – offer only a limited explanation. Domestic politics and a humanitarian agenda explain some variation, but they too are insufficient. A number of leaders appeared to believe change would...

The article examines Israel's successes and failures during the Second Intifada. It argues that Israel's advances came from an effective counterterrorism campaign involving a mix of military operations, defensive measures, and in particular improved intelligence gathering. Domestic resilience also proved strong in the face of a brutal terrorism cam...

This article examines Israel's attempts to weaken and defeat the Lebanese Hizballah. It reviews Hizballah's rise after the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Hizballah's successful effort to force Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon in 2000, the 2006 war, and Israeli attempts to deter Hizballah. The article argues that Israel has largely failed...

Although last winter's peaceful popular uprisings damaged the jihadist brand, they also gave terrorist groups greater operational freedom. To prevent those groups from seizing the opportunities now open to them, Washington should keep the pressure on al Qaeda and work closely with any newly installed regimes.

The capitulation of Serbia after 78 days of NATO bombing in spring 1999 heralded for many the arrival of a new era in the use of coercive airpower. Lt Gen Michael Short, who ran the bombing campaign, has argued that "NATO got every one of the terms it had stipulated in Rambouillet and beyond Rambouillet, and I credit this as a victory for air power...

The 1990s witnessed an explosion of Western military involvement in complex emergency operations requiring cooperation with relief agencies. Recent operations include a failed attempt to reconstitute viable central government in Somalia, return of democratically elected government to Haiti, alleviation of human suffering in Rwanda and Zaire, operat...

Hamas is central to Israeli security and Palestinian politics, yet the international community refuses to work with it. This is a mistake. Hamas might possibly be convinced not to undermine progress on a peace deal. To accomplish this, Israel and the international community would have to exploit Hamas' vulnerabilities with a mix of coercion and con...

Military intervention to bring about lasting peace in a violent communal conflict fails or even backfires far more often than it succeeds. Policymakers and military officials commonly ignore the characteristics that distinguish communal from ideological conflict, even though those characteristics greatly affect an intervention’s requirements and ef...

Speculation about the future of the North Korean regime has been intense for nearly two decades. In the 1990s, economic crises and famine led to predictions of the Kim regime's imminent downfall. Today analysts highlight impending famine as well as threats to the regime's position brought by eroding information control. Several theories of authorit...

This article evaluates state-sponsored terrorism as a principal-agent issue. More often applied to the study of licit national or international institutions as a way to improve their governance, we argue that applying principal-agent analysis to illicit relationships such as those between states and terrorist agents is an equally fruitful applicati...

Critics raise five primary objections to the feasibility of democracy in Iraq. Yet, these arguments exaggerate the impediments and ignore the potential impact that a determined United States could have. Failure to make democracy in Iraq work would be disastrous.

KempGeoffrey and HarkavyRobert E., Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1997). Pp. 508. $52.95 cloth, $22.95 paper. - Volume 30 Issue 4 - Daniel L. Byman

The Center for Risk and Economic Assessment of Terrorism Events (CREATE) and Center for Peace and Security Studies (CPASS) project, Intelligence Analysis for Homeland Security, examines Domestic Intelligence through the lenses of several research questions: what are the challenges to information sharing in a domestic homeland security context? What...

This article examines whether the outbreak of an insurgency after the U.S. invasion of Iraq was an avoidable policy failure or whether the structural conditions surrounding the occupation made such an outbreak inevitable. Several U.S. policy mistakes, in particular the deployment of too few troops, a lack of comprehensive political and military pla...

This article argues that the problems facing Iraq could have tremendous consequences for the broader “war on terror,” particularly if they return to or exceed levels seen at the height of the violence in 2006. Salafi militants, followers of an extreme interpretation of Islam who want to use violence to unite Muslims under religious rule, have been...

This article reviews Iran's past and current use of terrorism and assesses why U.S. attempts to halt Iran's efforts have met with little success. With this assessment in mind, it argues that Iran is not likely transfer chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons to terrorist groups for several reasons. First, providing terrorists with such unconventio...

Why do some small terrorist and guerrilla groups succeed in becoming full-blown insurgencies while many others fail? Proto-insurgencies face many difficulties in creating an insurgent movement: they must create a politically salient identity, harness a compelling cause, create an effective sanctuary, and defeat both violent and peaceful organizatio...

THE NEXT PRESIDENT should make counterterrorism an integral part of his approach to the Middle East but not the only driver of his regional policy. Terrorist attacks can derail, at times dramatically, an administration's regional objectives and in extreme circumstances can cause tremendous loss of innocent life and reduced public confidence in gove...

The next U.S. president will need to pursue a new strategic framework for advancing American interests in the Middle East. The mounting challenges include sectarian conflict in Iraq, Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities, failing Palestinian and Lebanese governments, a dormant peace process, and the ongoing war against terror. Compounding these ch...

The George W. Bush administration has tried to fight al-Qaeda and its allies with efforts ranging from aggressive intelligence and military campaigns to programmes to win over the youth of the Arab world through radio and televi- sion broadcasts. These efforts, however, are not part of an overarching strategic framework that lays out a path to vict...

DANIEL BYMAN challenges the view that proliferation and terrorism are similar problems and that the policies to combat them necessarily operate in harmony. Policymakers concerned about nuclear terrorism should focus on helping potential leakers improve security and on guarding against the rise of hostile ideological states.