Csaba Zsolt Torma

• PhD
• Professor (Assistant) at Eötvös Loránd University

A preliminary analysis of the performance of the latest version of the RegCM regional modelling system, RegCM5, run at a convection permitting resolution (2 km) over the Carpathian Basin is presented for the following years: 1980, 2006, 2008 and 2010. The performance of the model is assessed using various statistics of surface air temperature and p...

The FORESEE is an open access, climatological database for Central Europe containing observed and projected meteorological data for the 1951-2100 period. As a climate service, FORESEE disseminates basic meteorological variables at a daily time step with a 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution including maximum/minimum temperature, precipitation, incoming...

Az éghajlatváltozás egyértelmű jele régiónkban bizonyos időjárási és éghajlati szélsőségek gyakoribb bekövetkezése. Ide tartoznak a nyári hőhullámok is, amelyek a jövőben még intenzívebbé és hosszabbá válhatnak térségünkben. Kutatásunk során elvégeztük a hőhullámos periódusok detektálását és azok különböző karakterisztikáinak jellemzését két nagyob...

Regional climate models are widely used to assess current and future impacts of climate change. In this study, we evaluate the performance of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment programme integrated over the following three CORDEX domains: AFR, MNA and WAS. Four meteorological variables (temperature,...

The present research focuses on temperature change signals over the Carpathian Basin with a special focus on selected lowland and mountainous subregions. High‐resolution (0.11°) EURO‐ and Med‐CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations of near‐surface air temperature are analysed based on raw and bias‐adjusted data. The mini‐ensemble consists o...

The collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations, across the 14 CORDEX continental-scale domains, with global coverage. These simulations have been used as a new line of...

Climate model simulations' outputs are prone to biases compared to observations; furthermore, climate projections can be very different in modelling future temperature characteristics. One possible solution for reducing uncertainty and eliminating possible systematic errors within climate projections is the bias‐adjustment of the raw climate model...

The information of when and where region-specific patterns in both mean and extreme temperatures leading to heat stress will emerge from the present-day climate variability is important to plan adaptation options, but to date studies on this issue still remain limited and fragmented. Here, we estimate the time of emergence (TOE) of temperature and...

This study evaluates the projected changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains: South America (SAM) and Europe (EUR). An ensemble of five twenty-first century projections with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are analyzed...

The original version of the article contained error in the Fig. 8 caption was swapped and below is the corrected caption.

: Very small glaciers (<0.5 km2) account for more than 80% of the total number of glaciers and more than 15% of the total glacier area in the European Alps. This study seeks to better understand the impact of extreme snowfall events on the resilience of very small glaciers and ice patches in the southeastern European Alps, an area with the highest...

Societal concerns about future hydroclimate changes urge a thorough understanding of the governing processes. Here, an analysis of Middle and Late Holocene speleothem-based hydroclimate reconstructions and paleoclimate model simulations reveals sub-millennial fluctuations in the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation in the European and Medite...

This study investigates the greenhouse gas‐induced winter and summer precipitation change signals over the Carpathian region with special focus on topographical effects and underlying processes. Six high‐resolution (~12 km grid spacing) regional climate model projections are analyzed for the future period 2070–2099 with respect to the reference per...

This study aims to give a brief overview of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations with and without bias correction for daily precipitation for the Carpathian Region located in Central/Eastern Europe. Within the international initiative called the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), EURO-CORDEX and Med-CORDEX prov...

Present study evaluates the ability of the ERA-Interim-driven regional climate model (RCM) simulations conducted in the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in describing precipitation and temperature climatic conditions over the Carpathian Region. In total, nine RCM simulations were assessed from EURO-CORDE...

In this study we investigate the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean region by assessing against observations the present day and future regional climate simulations performed in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs. Over the 1979–2008 period, despite differences in quantitative precipitation simulation...

Exploiting the added value of the ensemble of high-resolution model simulations provided by the Med-CORDEX coordinated initiative, an updated assessment of Mediterranean extreme precipitation events as represented in different observational, reanalysis and modelling datasets is presented. A spatiotemporal characterisation of the long-term statistic...

We assess the statistics of different daily precipitation indices in ensembles of Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX experiments at high resolution (grid spacing of ~0.11°, or RCM11) and medium resolution (grid spacing of ~0.44°, or RCM44) with regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis of observations for the period 1989–2008. The...

The characteristics of the mesoscale Mistral and Tramontane winds under changing climate conditions are of great interest for risk assessments. In this study, a classification algorithm is applied to identify Mistral and Tramontane-permitting sea-level pressure patterns, thus allowing for estimates of their future characteristics. Five simulations...

We document the occurrence in December 2015 of unprecedented high monthly mean temperatures in the observational record of mountain sites in the eastern Alps. For the first time in the last 150 years mean December temperature exceeded 0 °C at elevations between 2100 and 2500 m, with December mean anomalies exceeding 6.5 °C with respect to the 1971–...

Global climate projections consistently indicate a future decrease in summer precipitation over the European Alps. However, topography can substantially modulate precipitation change signals. For example, the shadowing effect by topographic barriers can modify winter precipitation change patterns, and orographic convection might also play an import...

The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change "hotspots" of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean-atmosphere-land-biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the...

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a highly allergenic and invasive plant in Europe. Its pollen can be transported over large distances and has been recognized as a significant cause of hay fever and asthma (D'Amato et al., 2007; Burbach et al., 2009). To simulate production and dispersion of common ragweed pollen, we implement a pollen...

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a highly allergenic and invasive plant in Europe. Its pollen can be transported over large distances and has been recognized as a significant cause of hayfever and asthma (D'Amato et al., 2007; Burbach et al., 2009). To simulate production and dispersion of common ragweed pollen, we implement a pollen...

The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hot spots” of the 21st century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean-atmosphere-land-biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate...

We present an analysis of the added value (AV) of downscaling via regional climate model (RCM) nesting with respect to the driving global climate models (GCMs). We analyze ensembles of driving GCM and nested RCM (two resolutions, 0.44° and 0.11°) simulations for the late 20th and late 21st centuries from the CMIP5, EURO‐CORDEX, and MED‐CORDEX exper...

Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT un...

We analyze changes of four extreme hydroclimatic indices in the RCP8.5 projections of the Phase I CREMA experiment, which includes 21st century projections over 5 CORDEX domains (Africa, Central America, South America, South Asia, Mediterranean) with the ICTP regional model RegCM4 driven by three CMIP5 global models. The indices are: Heat Wave Day...

We provide an overall assessment of the surface air temperature and precipitation present day (1976–2005) and future (2070–2099) ensemble climatologies in the Phase I CREMA experiment. This consists of simulations performed with different configurations (physics schemes) of the ICTP regional model RegCM4 over five CORDEX domains (Africa, Mediterran...

This study applies the factor separation (FS) method to investigate the contributions of different factors, along with their synergy, on a set of regional climate model (RCM) projections for the Mediterranean region. The FS method is applied to six projections for the period 1970–2100 performed with the regional model RegCM4 over the Med-CORDEX dom...

For the phase I CREMA experiment the regional climate model RegCM4 has been used to simulate the present and future time period over 5 domains across the word (Africa, South America, Central America, West Asia and Mediterranean) to contribute to CORDEX for a total of 34 simulations, spanning the period 1970-2100. Three GCMs have been used taken fro...

In this study we analyze a set of regional climate model (RCM) simulations applying dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) simulations over the Mediterranean region. The RCM simulations are completed with the Regional Climate Model RegCM, version RegCM4.3, and cover one of the domains specified by the international initiative Coordinat...

This paper presents a validation study for a high-resolution version of the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) over the Carpathian basin and its surroundings. The horizontal grid spacing of the model is 10 km-the highest reached by RegCM3. The ability of the model to capture temporal and spatial variability of temperature and precipitation o...

Heat wave events are important temperature-related climatological extremes due to their impacts on human health. In the future, they are very likely to occur more frequently and more intensely not only in the Carpathian Basin, but in most regions of the world because of global warming. In order to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies on loc...

Four regional climate models (RCMs) were adapted in Hungary for the dynamical downscaling of the global climate projections over the Carpathian Basin: (i) the ALADIN-Climate model developed by Météo France on the basis of the ALADIN short-range modelling system; (ii) the PRECIS model available from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre; (iii) the RegCM m...

Fine-scale features of the expected regional climate change can be analyzed and evaluated using regional climate model (RCM) experiments, which are nested in large-scale global climate models. One of the available RCMs has been applied to assess the 21st century climatic trends for the Carpathian basin (located in Eastern/Central Europe) and its vi...

Global climate change can have serious direct effects on animal health and production through heat stress. In Hungary, the number of heat stress days per year (YNHD), i.e., days when the temperature humidity index (THI) is above a specific comfort threshold, has increased in recent years based on observed meteorological data. Between 1973 and 2008,...

Within the EU-FP6-project CECILIA (Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment) photochemical model calculations were performed under present and future climate conditions in order to investigate the impact of a changing climate on the concentration of air pollutants. CAMx with the CB4 chemical mechanism was used a...

Fine-scale features of the expected regional climate change can be analyzed and evaluated using regional climate model (RCM) experiments, which are nested in large-scale global climate models. One of the available RCMs has been applied to assess the 21st century climatic trends for the Carpathian basin (located in Eastern/Central Europe) and its vi...

http://www.met.hu/ doc/rendezvenyek/metnapok-2010/36.Meteorologiai_Tudomanyos_Napok_osszefoglalo_2010.pdf

Model RegCM is a 3-dimensional, sigma-coordinate, primitive equation model, and it was originally developed by Giorgi et al. Currently, it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). For adaptational test runs, we used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis datasets (ERA-40) as bounda...

Due to their coarse spatial resolution, the results from global climate models (GCM) are not capable to provide detailed regional estimations of future climate conditions. The 10-25 km horizontal resolution regional climate models (RCM) nested into GCMs are expected to improve the regional climate scenarios for the European subregions. Expected reg...

Model RegCM is a 3-dimensional, sigma-coordinate, primitive equation model, and it was originally developed by Giorgi et al. Currently, it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). For adaptational test runs, we used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis datasets (ERA-40) as bounda...

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggest...

In the last decade, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) nested in Global Climate Models (GCMs) have become essential tools to make climate projections with fine spatial resolution. In this paper, control runs of the RCMs RegCM and PRECIS are discussed and compared for the Central/Eastern European region. Both RCMs are three-dimensional, sigma-coordinate...

Recently, several regional climate models were adapted in Hungary (at the Hungarian Meteorological Service and at the Eötvös Loránd University) for the local dynamical enhancement of the global climate models for the Carpathian Basin. These models are the ALADIN-Climate model developed by Météo France on the basis of the ALADIN short range modellin...

Sensitivity experiments of present day climate (1961-1970) using the wellknown regional climate model RegCM3 are analyzed over a complex topography domain covering the Carpathian Basin and its surroundings. The horizontal resolution of the model experiments is 10 km, the highest so far used with the RegCM modeling framework. When RegCM3 is run with...

The IPCC TAR (2001) suggests that Southern and Central European countries may become highly vulnerable to global warming. In the frame of the Hungarian national climate change program, adaptation of regional models with fine ho rizontal resolution (10-25 km) is in progress. Since detailed simulations and evaluation of the fi nal results are not ava...