Cory Merow

University of Connecticut | UConn · Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

Significance Changing interactions between climate and fire are impacting biodiversity. We examined the longest vegetation survey record in the Fynbos, South Africa, a fire-prone Mediterranean-type ecosystem and Global Biodiversity Hotspot, finding significant impacts of prolonged hot and dry postfire weather and invasive plants on species diversit...

Scientific research increasingly calls for open‐source software that is flexible, interactive, and expandable, while providing methodological guidance and reproducibility. Currently, many analyses in ecology are implemented with “black box” graphical user interfaces (GUIs) that lack flexibility or command‐line interfaces that are infrequently used...

The MaxEnt software package is one of the most popular tools for species distribution and environmental niche modeling, with over 1000 published applications since 2006. Its popularity is likely for two reasons: 1) MaxEnt typically outperforms other methods based on predictive accuracy and 2) the software is particularly easy to use. MaxEnt users m...

Integral projection models ( IPM s) use information on how an individual's state influences its vital rates – survival, growth and reproduction – to make population projections. IPM s are constructed from regression models predicting vital rates from state variables ( e.g . size or age) and covariates ( e.g . environment). By combining regressions...

Significance Invasive species are often expected to benefit from novel conditions encountered with global change. Our range models based on demography show that invasive Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) may have much lower establishment in New England under future climate, despite prolific success under current climate, whereas other invasive an...

The increasing online availability of biodiversity data and advances in ecological modeling have led to a proliferation of open‐source modeling tools. In particular, R packages for species distribution modeling continue to multiply without guidance on how they can be employed together, resulting in high fidelity of researchers to one or several pac...

The concept of the ecological niche is fundamental to understanding species distributions but it often overlooks the critical role of demography in shaping said distributions. Conversely, demographic theory has traditionally neglected how vital rates vary across environments, limiting our understanding of population dynamics across species’ ranges....

The concept of the ecological niche is fundamental to understanding species distributions but it often overlooks the critical role of demography in shaping said distributions. Conversely, demographic theory has traditionally neglected how vital rates vary across environments, limiting our understanding of population dynamics across species’ ranges....

The concept of the ecological niche is fundamental to understanding species distributions but it often overlooks the critical role of demography in shaping said distributions. Conversely, demographic theory has traditionally neglected how vital rates vary across environments, limiting our understanding of population dynamics across species’ ranges....

Creating software tools that address the needs of a wide range of decision-makers requires the inclusion of differing perspectives throughout the development process. Software tools for biodiversity conservation often fall short in this regard, partly because broad decision-maker needs may exceed the toolkits of single research groups or even insti...

Wildfire is a critical ecological disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems. Australia, in particular, has experienced increasingly large and severe wildfires over the past 2 decades, while globally fire risk is expected to increase significantly due to projected increases in extreme weather and drought conditions. Therefore, understanding and predicti...

Biologists increasingly rely on computer code to collect and analyze their data, reinforcing the importance of published code for transparency, reproducibility, training, and a basis for further work. Here, we conduct a literature review estimating temporal trends in code sharing in ecology and evolution publications since 2010, and test for an inf...

2023 was the hottest year in recorded history at the time of its recording ¹ and warmer than any in the past 125,000 years ² . Although the effects of this unprecedented year on human health, agriculture, and economies have been documented ³ , we know much less about its effects on global biodiversity, especially in poorly monitored regions. Here,...

Climate change is exposing marine species to unsuitable temperatures while also creating new thermally suitable habitats of varying persistence. However, understanding how these different dynamics will unfold over time remains limited. We use yearly sea surface temperature projections to estimate temporal dynamics of thermal exposure (when temperat...

Aim Species occurrence data are valuable information that enables one to estimate geographical distributions, characterize niches and their evolution, and guide spatial conservation planning. Rapid increases in species occurrence data stem from increasing digitization and aggregation efforts, and citizen science initiatives. However, persistent qua...

Trees are pivotal to global biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people, yet accelerating global changes threaten global tree diversity, making accurate species extinction risk assessments necessary. To identify species that require expert-based re-evaluation, we assess exposure to change in six anthropogenic threats over the last two decades...

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) that integrate presence‐only and presence–absence data offer a promising avenue to improve information on species' geographic distributions. The use of such ‘integrated SDMs’ on a species range‐wide extent has been constrained by the often limited presence–absence data and by the heterogeneous sampling of the...

Biologists increasingly rely on computer code to collect and analyze their data, reinforcing the importance of published code for transparency, reproducibility, training, and a basis for further work. Here we conduct a literature review examining temporal trends in code sharing in ecology and evolution publications since 2010, and test for an influ...

Across the globe, tree species are under high anthropogenic pressure. Risks of extinction are notably more severe for species with restricted ranges and distinct evolutionary histories. Here, we use a global dataset covering 41,835 species (65.1% of known tree species) to assess the spatial pattern of tree species’ phylogenetic endemism, its macroe...

What grows where? Knowledge about where to find particular species in nature must have been key to the survival of humans throughout our evolution. Over time, and as people colonised new land masses and habitats, interactions with the local biota led to a wealth of combined traditional and scientific wisdom about the distributions of species and th...

Biologists increasingly rely on computer code, reinforcing the importance of published code for transparency, reproducibility, training, and a basis for further work. Here we conduct a literature review examining temporal trends in code sharing in ecology and evolution publications since 2010, and test for an influence of code sharing on citation r...

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework is a worldwide plan to urgently address and reverse biodiversity loss, intending to achieve a harmonious relationship between humanity and nature by 2050. This paper seeks to contribute to operationalising the framework, specifically concerning biodiversity conservation and nature's contributions t...

Forests play a critical role in stabilizing Earth’s climate. Establishing protected areas (PAs) represents one approach to forest conservation, but PAs were rarely created to mitigate climate change. The global impact of PAs on the carbon cycle has not previously been quantified due to a lack of accurate global-scale carbon stock maps. Here we used...

Climate change is already exposing species to dangerous temperatures driving widespread population and geographical contractions. However, little is known about how these risks of thermal exposure will expand across species’ existing geographical ranges over time as climate change continues. Here, using geographical data for approximately 36,000 ma...

Wildfire is a critical ecological disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems. Australia, in particular, has experienced increasingly large and severe wildfires over the past two decades while globally fire risk is expected to increase significantly due to the projected increase in fire weather severity and drought condition. Therefore, understanding and...

Societal Impact Statement Plants are fundamental to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and are key to human livelihoods. To protect plant diversity, systematic approaches to conservation assessment are needed. Many nations have legislation or other policy instruments that seek to protect biodiversity (including plants), and species‐level assessment...

As Earth's climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past climate change on biodiversity helps to understand the risks from future climate change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed the influence of Quaternary climate change on spatial dissimila...

Conservation planning and decision‐making rely on evaluations of biodiversity status and threats that are based upon species' distribution estimates. However, gaps exist regarding automated tools to delineate species' current ranges from distribution estimates and use those estimates to calculate both species‐ and community‐level biodiversity metri...

Forests play a critical role in stabilizing Earth’s climate. Establishing Protected Areas (PAs) represents one approach to forest conservation, but PAs were rarely created to mitigate climate change. The global impact of PAs on the carbon cycle, through avoided emissions and/or enhanced growth, has not previously been quantified due to a lack of ac...

Massive biological databases of species occurrences, or georeferenced locations where a species has been observed, are essential inputs for modeling present and future species distributions. Location accuracy is often assessed by determining whether the observation geocoordinates fall within the boundaries of the declared political divisions. This...

Safeguarding Earth’s tree diversity is a conservation priority due to the importance of trees for biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services such as carbon sequestration. Here, we improve the foundation for effective conservation of global tree diversity by analyzing a recently developed database of tree species covering 46,752 species. We q...

Here, we demonstrate how expert knowledge, diverse data types, and SDMs can be used together in a transparent and reproducible modeling workflow. Specifically, we show how expert knowledge regarding species’ habitat use, elevation, biotic interactions, and environmental tolerances can be used to make and refine range estimates using SDMs and variou...

Massive biological databases of species occurrences, or georeferenced locations where a species has been observed, are essential inputs for modeling present and future species distributions. Location accuracy is often assessed by determining whether the observation geocoordinates fall within the boundaries of the declared political divisions. This...

At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillov...

Massive biological databases of species occurrences, or georeferenced locations where a species has been observed, are essential inputs for modeling present and future species distributions. Location accuracy is often assessed by determining whether the observation geocoordinates fall within the boundaries of the declared political divisions. This...

Cactaceae (cacti), a New World plant family, is one of the most endangered groups of organisms on the planet. Conservation planning is uncertain as it is unclear whether climate and land-use change will positively or negatively impact global cactus diversity. On the one hand, a common perception is that future climates will be favourable to cacti a...

Aim Addressing global environmental challenges requires access to biodiversity data across wide spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales. Availability of such data has increased exponentially recently with the proliferation of biodiversity databases. However, heterogeneous coverage, protocols, and standards have hampered integration among these datab...

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknow...

The field of distributional ecology has seen considerable recent attention, particularly surrounding the theory, protocols, and tools for Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) or Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). Such analyses have grown steadily over the past two decades—including a maturation of relevant theory and key concepts—but methodological co...

Aim Existing abiotic and biotic threats to plant species (e.g., disease, drought, invasive species) affect their capacity to recover post‐fire. We use a new, globally applicable framework to assess the vulnerability of 26,062 Australian plant species to a suite of active threats after the 2019–2020 fires. Location Australia. Time period 2019–2020...

Significance Tree diversity is fundamental for forest ecosystem stability and services. However, because of limited available data, estimates of tree diversity at large geographic domains still rely heavily on published lists of species descriptions that are geographically uneven in coverage. These limitations have precluded efforts to generate a g...

To meet the ambitious objectives of biodiversity and climate conventions, the international community requires clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially and how multiple targets can be pursued concurrently. To support goal setting and the implementation of international strategies and action plans, spatial guidance is needed...

Biodiversity contributes to the ecological and climatic stability of the Amazon Basin1,2, but is increasingly threatened by deforestation and fire3,4. Here we quantify these impacts over the past two decades using remote-sensing estimates of fire and deforestation and comprehensive range estimates of 11,514 plant species and 3,079 vertebrate specie...

Significance We explore an extended view of the tropical conservatism hypothesis to account for two often-neglected components of climatic stress: drought and the combined effect of seasonal cold and drought—the latter being a common feature of extratropical dry environments. We show that evolutionary diversity of angiosperm assemblages in extratro...

Predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used in support of environmental decision-making to explore potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, because future climates are likely to differ from current climates, there has been ongoing interest in understanding the ability of SDMs to predict species respons...

Aim: Addressing global environmental challenges requires access to biodiversity data across wide spatial, temporal and biological scales. Recent decades have witnessed an exponential increase of biodiversity information aggregated by biodiversity databases (hereafter ‘databases’). However, heterogeneous coverage, protocols, and standards of databas...

The amount of observational and specimen‐based biodiversity data available to researchers is increasing exponentially, yet the ability to manage and cite large, complex biodiversity datasets lags behind. This management and citation gap impedes reproducibility for data users and the ability for data publishers to track use and accumulate use citati...

Climate change is a threat to food security. Wild-harvested food plants (WFPs) are important for the diets of millions of people and contribute to food security, especially in rural and low-income communities, but little is known about climate change risk to WFPs. Using species distribution models, we examined climate change risk to 1190 WFP specie...

Aim With plant biodiversity under global threat, there is an urgent need to monitor the spatial distribution of multiple axes of biodiversity. Remote sensing is a critical tool in this endeavour. One remote sensing approach for detecting biodiversity is based on the hypothesis that the spectral diversity of plant communities is a surrogate of multi...

Questions The taxonomic and functional composition of plant communities capture different dimensions of diversity. Functional diversity (FD) – as calculated from species traits – typically increases with species richness in communities and is expected to be higher in less extreme environments, where a broader range of functional strategies can pers...

Aim To quantify the impact of the 2019–2020 megafires on Australian plant diversity by assessing burnt area across 26,062 species ranges and the effects of fire history on recovery potential. Further, to exemplify a strategic approach to prioritizing plant species affected by fire for recovery actions and conservation planning at a national scale....

Predictions of biodiversity trajectories under climate change are crucial in order to act effectively in maintaining the diversity of species. In many ecological applications, future predictions are made under various global warming scenarios as described by a range of different climate models. The outputs of these various predictions call for a re...

Climate change is causing species’ ranges to shift, many at unprecedented rates, all across the planet. This poses a challenge for planning and management of biodiversity conservation through area-based conservation, as conserved areas are fixed in place. However, nearly a decade of research shows that strategic planning for new conserved areas can...

Species distribution models (SDMs) constitute the most common class of models across ecology, evolution and conservation. The advent of ready‐to‐use software packages and increasing availability of digital geoinformation have considerably assisted the application of SDMs in the past decade, greatly enabling their broader use for informing conservat...

Both historical and contemporary environmental conditions determine present biodiversity patterns, but their relative importance is not well understood. One way to disentangle their relative effects is to assess how different dimensions of beta-diversity relate to past climatic changes, i.e., taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional compositional dis...

Significance The virus causing COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide. It remains unknown whether summer weather will reduce its spread and justify relaxing political interventions and restarting economic activities. We develop statistical models that predict the maximum potential of COVID-19 worldwide and throughout the year. We find that UV light,...