Corinne Le Quéré

Corinne Le Quéré
University of East Anglia | UEA · Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

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255
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Publications

Publications (255)
Article
Full-text available
Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, and perpetuating climate change. Here, we review current understanding of the impacts of climate change on fire weather (weather conditions conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfire...
Article
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Day-to-day changes in CO2 emissions from human activities, in particular fossil-fuel combustion and cement production, reflect a complex balance of influences from seasonality, working days, weather and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we provide a daily CO2 emissions dataset for the whole year of 2020, calculated from inventory and nea...
Article
This study considers year-to-year and decadal variations in as well as secular trends of the sea–air CO2 flux over the 1957–2020 period, as constrained by the pCO2 measurements from the SOCATv2021 database. In a first step, we relate interannual anomalies in ocean-internal carbon sources and sinks to local interannual anomalies in sea surface tempe...
Article
It is not currently possible to quantify regional-scale fossil fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO 2 ) emissions with high accuracy in near real time. Existing atmospheric methods for separating ffCO 2 from large natural carbon dioxide variations are constrained by sampling limitations, so that estimates of regional changes in ffCO 2 emissions, such as those...
Article
Full-text available
p>Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets...
Preprint
This study considers year-to-year and decadal variations as well as secular trends of the sea–air CO2 flux over the 1957–2020 period, as constrained by the pCO2 measurements from the SOCAT data base. In a first step, we relate interannual anomalies in ocean-internal carbon sources and sinks to local interannual anomalies in sea surface temperature...
Preprint
Full-text available
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets...
Preprint
Full-text available
Global fossil CO2 emissions in 2020 decreased 5.4%, from 36.7 Gt CO2 in 2019 to 34.8 Gt CO2 in 2020, an unprecedented decline of ~1.9 Gt CO2. We project that global fossil CO2 emissions in 2021 will rebound 4.9% (4.1% to 5.7%) compared to 2020 to 36.4 Gt CO2, returning nearly to 2019 emission levels of 36.7 Gt CO2. Emissions in China are expected t...
Article
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The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a binding international treaty signed by 196 nations to limit their greenhouse gas emissions through ever-reducing Nationally Determined Contributions and a system of 5-yearly Global Stocktakes in an Enhanced Transparency Framework. To support this process, the Euro...
Preprint
Full-text available
The diurnal cycle CO$_2$ emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reflect seasonality, weather conditions, working days, and more recently the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, for the first time we provide a daily CO$_2$ emission dataset for the whole year of 2020 calculated from inventory and near-real-time activity data (...
Article
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Five years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, growth in global CO2 emissions has begun to falter. The pervasive disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have radically altered the trajectory of global CO2 emissions. Contradictory effects of the post-COVID-19 investments in fossil fuel-based infrastructure and the recent strengthening...
Article
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Jellyfish are increasingly recognised as important components of the marine ecosystem, yet their specific role is poorly defined compared to that of other zooplankton groups. This paper presents the first global ocean biogeochemical model that includes an explicit representation of jellyfish and uses the model to gain insight into the influence of...
Article
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Quantification of CO 2 fluxes at the Earth’s surface is required to evaluate the causes and drivers of observed increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Atmospheric inversion models disaggregate observed variations in atmospheric CO 2 concentration to variability in CO 2 emissions and sinks. They require prior constraints fossil CO 2 emissions...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we de...
Article
Full-text available
Based on the 2019 assessment of the Global Carbon Project, the ocean took up on average, 2.5 ± 0.6 PgC yr −1 or 23 ± 5% of the total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions over the decade 2009-2018. This sink estimate is based on simulation results from global ocean biogeochemical models (GOBMs) and is compared to data-products based on observations of surfa...
Article
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The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term...
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An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Article
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Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emi...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Jellyfish are increasingly recognised as important components of the marine ecosystem, yet their specific role is poorly defined compared to that of other zooplankton groups. This paper presents the first global ocean biogeochemical model that includes an explicit representation of jellyfish, and uses the model to gain insight into the in...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and m...
Article
A failure to recognize the factors behind continued emissions growth could limit the world’s ability to shift to a pathway consistent with 1.5 °C or 2 °C of global warming. Continued support for low-carbon technologies needs to be combined with policies directed at phasing out the use of fossil fuels.
Article
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Amidst declarations of planetary emergency and reports that the window for limiting climate change to 1.5 °C is rapidly closing, global average temperatures and fossil fuel emissions continue to rise. Global fossil CO2 emissions have grown three years consecutively: +1.5% in 2017, +2.1% in 2018, and our slower central projection of +0.6% in 2019 (r...
Article
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Measurements show large decadal variability in the rate of CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere that is not driven by CO2 emissions. The decade of the 1990s experienced enhanced carbon accumulation in the atmosphere relative to emissions, while in the 2000s, the atmospheric growth rate slowed, even though emissions grew rapidly. These variations are...
Article
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The global land and ocean carbon sinks have increased proportionally with increasing carbon dioxide emissions during the past decades¹. It is thought that Northern Hemisphere lands make a dominant contribution to the global land carbon sink2–7; however, the long-term trend of the northern land sink remains uncertain. Here, using measurements of the...
Article
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Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuels and industry increased by 2.2% per year on average between 2005 and 2015¹. Global emissions need to peak and decline rapidly to limit climate change to well below 2 °C of warming2,3, which is one of the goals of the Paris Agreement⁴. Untangling the reasons underlying recent changes in emiss...
Article
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The literature on the relative contributions of pelagic calcifying taxa to the global ocean export of CaCO 3 is divided. Studies based on deep sediment trap data tend to argue that either foraminifers or coccolithophores, both calcite producers, dominate export. However, the compilations of biomass observations for pteropods, coccolithophores, and...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and meth...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">CO2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project f...
Article
Full-text available
Recent reports have highlighted the challenge of keeping global average temperatures below 2 °C and—even more so—1.5 °C (IPCC 2018). Fossil-fuel burning and cement production release ~90% of all CO2 emissions from human activities. After a three-year hiatus with stable global emissions (Jackson et al 2016; Le Quéré C et al 2018a ; IEA 2018), CO2 em...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the ‘global carbon budget’ – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and m...
Article
Full-text available
The terrestrial carbon sink accelerated during 1998–2012, concurrently with the slow warming period, but the mechanisms behind this acceleration are unclear. Here we analyse recent changes in the net land carbon sink (NLS) and its driving factors, using atmospheric inversions and terrestrial carbon models. We show that the linear trend of NLS durin...
Article
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We estimate the global ocean N2O flux to the atmosphere and its confidence interval using a statistical method based on model perturbation simulations and their fit to a database of ΔpN2O (n = 6136). We evaluate two submodels of N2O production. The first submodel splits N2O production into oxic and hypoxic pathways following previous publications....
Article
Full-text available
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and m...
Article
To assess global carbon cycle variability, we decompose the net land carbon sink into the sum of gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and fire emissions (FR), and apply a Bayesian framework to constrain these fluxes between 1980 and 2014. The constrained GPP and TER fluxes show an increasing trend of only half o...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and m...
Article
Full-text available
p>Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">CO2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project...
Article
The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability.
Article
Full-text available
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and industry comprise ~90% of all CO2 emissions from human activities. For the last three years, such emissions were stable, despite continuing growth in the global economy. Many positive trends contributed to this unique hiatus, including reduced coal use in China and elsewhere, continuing gains in...
Article
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We present the first meridional transects of atmospheric O2 and CO2 over the Atlantic Ocean. We combine these measurements into the tracer Atmospheric Potential Oxygen (APO), which is a measure of the oceanic contribution to atmospheric O2 variations. Our new in situ measurement system, deployed on board a commercial container ship during 2015, per...
Article
Full-text available
We estimate the global ocean N2O flux to the atmosphere and its confidence interval using a statistical method based on model perturbation simulations and their fit to a database of ΔpN2O (n=6136). We evaluate two submodels of N2O production. The first submodel splits N2O production into oxic and hypoxic pathways following previous publications. Th...
Article
Current emission pledges to the Paris Agreement appear insufficient to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet, details are missing on how to track progress towards the â € Paris goal', inform the five-yearly â € global stocktake', and increase the ambition of Nationally Determined Contributi...
Article
Full-text available
Rising CO2 in the atmosphere is the main cause of anthropogenic climate change, and the data shows a clear increase in global temperature of about 1 °C since pre-industrial levels. Changes in climate extremes are also occurring, with observed increases in the frequency of heat waves, in intense precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) in many places,...
Article
Cities are becoming increasingly important in combatting climate change, but their overall role in global solution pathways remains unclear. Here we suggest structuring urban climate solutions along the use of existing and newly built infrastructures, providing estimates of the mitigation potential.
Article
Full-text available
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and m...
Article
Conventional calculations of the global carbon budget infer the land sink as a residual between emissions, atmospheric accumulation, and the ocean sink. Thus, the land sink accumulates the errors from the other flux terms and bears the largest uncertainty. Here, we present a Bayesian fusion approach that combines multiple observations in different...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and m...
Article
Full-text available
Picophytoplankton account for most of the marine (sub-)tropical phytoplankton biomass and primary productivity. The contribution to biomass among plankton functional types (PFTs) could shift with climate warming, in part as a result of different physiological responses to temperature. To model these responses, Eppley's empirical relationships have...
Article
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Global ocean biogeochemistry models currently employed in climate change projections use highly simplified representations of pelagic food webs. These food webs do not necessarily include critical pathways by which ecosystems interact with ocean biogeochemistry and climate. Here we present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem...
Article
Full-text available
Ambitious response needed on climate front Letter to the Times – 16 th Dec 2015 Sir, The agreement reached in Paris shows there is now impressive global ambition to tackle climate change – with tough challenges ahead (Britain facing steeper emissions cuts; Dec 14). Further policy action is urgently required to transform ambition into reality. Unfor...
Article
Rapid growth in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ceased in the past two years, despite continued economic growth. Decreased coal use in China was largely responsible, coupled with slower global growth in petroleum and faster growth in renewables.
Article
Full-text available
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all ma...