Colin R Simpson

Victoria University of Wellington · School of Health

Objectives Using electronic health records, we derived and internally validated a prediction model to estimate risk factors for long COVID and predict individual risk of developing long COVID. Design Population-based, retrospective cohort study. Setting Scotland. Participants Adults (≥18 years) with a positive COVID-19 test, registered with a ge...

Background Stillbirth is a devastating and often avoidable adverse pregnancy outcome. Monitoring stillbirth levels and trends—in a comprehensive manner that leaves no one uncounted—is imperative for continuing progress in pregnancy loss reduction. This analysis, completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (G...

Objectives Precise measurement of self-compassion is essential for informing well-being–related policies. Traditional assessment methods have led to inconsistencies in the factor structure of self-compassion scales. We used Rasch methodology to enhance measurement precision and assess the psychometric properties of the Self-Compassion Scale Short F...

How can we lower barriers to reuse of linked administrative data and improve quality at the same time? Linked data resources are expensive and complex, but accompanying readily-accessible metadata supports data reuse and quality control. However, metadata systems that are unsystematic or non-automated can lead to inconsistencies, making metadata us...

Background Upper respiratory infections (URIs) are the leading cause of acute disease incidence worldwide and contribute to a substantial health-care burden. Although acute otitis media is a common complication of URIs, the combined global burden of URIs and otitis media has not been studied comprehensively. We used results from the Global Burden o...

aims: This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing COVID-19 outcomes when the Omicron variant was predominant in Aotearoa New Zealand. methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using routinely available data (8 December 2020–28 February 2023). We evaluated the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of COVID-19 vacc...

We have identified the most relevant and significant psychological factors in relation to COVID-19 vaccination attitudes in Ghana, Germany, New Zealand and India. This study recruited 1822 participants from the general populations of India ( n = 411), New Zealand ( n = 413), Ghana ( n = 523) and Germany ( n = 475) to participate in a cross-sectiona...

Several population-level studies have described individual clinical risk factors associated with suboptimal antibody responses following COVID-19 vaccination, but none have examined multimorbidity. Others have shown that suboptimal post-vaccination responses offer reduced protection to subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, the level of protecti...

Summary Background Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injur...

Background Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensiv...

Summary Background Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injur...

Background Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-base...

High vaccination coverage plays an essential role in curbing epidemics and pandemics, making it important to have a country-specific valid and standardised instruments for assessing vaccination attitudes. This study aimed to assess the psychometric properties of the Motors of COVID-19 Vaccination Acceptance Scale (MoVac-COVID19S) in New Zealand. A...

Background Long COVID is a debilitating multisystem condition. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of long COVID in the adult population of Scotland, and to identify risk factors associated with its development. Methods In this national, retrospective, observational cohort study, we analysed electronic health records (EHRs)...

Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important follow...

Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of D...

Objectives We undertook a national analysis to characterise and identify risk factors for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) resulting in hospitalisation during the winter period in Scotland. Design A population-based retrospective cohort analysis. Setting Scotland. Participants The study involved 5.4 million residents in Scotland. Main outcom...

Objective The QCovid 2 and 3 algorithms are risk prediction tools developed during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic that can be used to predict the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality, taking vaccination status into account. In this study, we assess their performance in Scotland. Methods We used the Early Pandemic Evaluation and...

Background: Context-specific standardized psychometric instruments are essential for ensuring valid and reliable assessment of health outcomes across diverse populations to aid the advancement of research and health-related interventions. However, instruments measuring attitudes toward vaccinations are lacking in the extant literature. Therefore, w...

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38092509/#full-view-affiliation-41

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is a multinational collaborative research study with >10,000 collaborators around the world. GBD generates a time series of summary measures of health, including prevalence, cause-specific mortality (CSMR), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disabi...

Background We compared the quality of ethnicity coding within the Public Health Scotland Ethnicity Look-up (PHS-EL) dataset, and other National Health Service datasets, with the 2011 Scottish Census. Methods Measures of quality included the level of missingness and misclassification. We examined the impact of misclassification using Cox proportion...

Background We noted that there remains some confusion in the health-science literature on reporting sample odds ratios as estimated rate ratios in case-control studies. Methods We recap historical literature that definitively answered the question of when sample odds ratios (ORs) from a case-control study are consistent estimators for population r...

Background The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel di...

Background The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel d...

Understanding the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy on neonatal and maternal outcomes informs clinical decision-making. Here we report a national, population-based, matched cohort study to investigate associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and, separately, COVID-19 vaccination just before or during pregnancy an...

Background: Vaccination continues to be the key public health measure for preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes. Certain groups may be at higher risk of incomplete vaccine schedule, which may leave them vulnerable to COVID-19 hospitalisation and death. Aim: To identify the sociodemographic and clinical predictors for not receiving a scheduled COVI...

Background This study aims to estimate ethnic inequalities in risk for positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths over time in Scotland. Methods We conducted a population-based cohort study where the 2011 Scottish Census was linked to health records. We included all individuals≥16 years living in Scotland on 1 March 2020. The...

In Aotearoa New Zealand, zoster vaccine live is used for the prevention of zoster and associated complications in adults. This study assessed the risk of pre-specified serious adverse events following zoster vaccine live immunisation among adults in routine clinical practice. We conducted a self-controlled case series study using routinely collecte...

Background Asthma and atopic dermatitis (AD) are chronic allergic conditions, along with allergic rhinitis and food allergy and cause high morbidity and mortality both in children and adults. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, national, and temporal trends of the burden of asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019 and analyze their association...

Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimat...

Objective To investigate the incidence of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in neonates (babies aged 0–27 days inclusive) born in Scotland and assess maternal/infant characteristics of cases and hospital admission rates. Methods This was a population-based cohort study from 1st March 2020 to 31st January 2022. Data on all pregnancies and resulting li...

Background Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CR...

Background Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CR...

Summary Background Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burd...

Whole-genome sequencing has been critical for Aotearoa New Zealand’s response to the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent behind the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Early in the pandemic, the rapid and distributed approach to sequencing made possible by Oxford Nanopore Technologies pr...

Several population-level studies have described individual clinical risk factors associated with suboptimal antibody responses following COVID-19 vaccination, but none have examined multimorbidity. Others have shown that suboptimal post-vaccination responses offer reduced protection to subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, the level of protecti...

The Critical Success Index (CSI) and Gilbert Skill score (GS) are verification measures that are commonly used to check the accuracy of weather forecasting. In this article, we propose that they can also be used to simplify the joint interpretation of positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity estimates across diagnostic accuracy studies of ep...

Background: Globally, increasing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccination coverage remains a major public health concern in the face of high rates of COVID-19 hesitancy among the general population. We must understand the impact of the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake when designing national vaccination programmes. We aimed to synthesise...

Evidence on associations between COVID-19 vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 infection and the risk of congenital anomalies is limited. Here we report a national, population-based, matched cohort study using linked electronic health records from Scotland (May 2020-April 2022) to estimate the association between COVID-19 vaccination and, separately, SARS-CoV...

Objectives To examine neonates in Scotland aged 0–27 days with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by viral testing; the risk of confirmed neonatal infection by maternal and infant characteristics; and hospital admissions associated with confirmed neonatal infections. Design Population-based cohort study. Setting and population All live births in Scot...

This study aims to develop a risk prediction model for epilepsy-related death in adults. In this age- and sex-matched case-control study, we compared adults (aged ≥16 years) who had epilepsy-related death between 2009–2016 to living adults with epilepsy in Scotland. Cases were identified from validated administrative national datasets linked to mor...

Risk stratification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients is important to enable targeted management. Existing disease severity classification systems, such as GOLD staging, do not take co-morbidities into account despite their high prevalence in COPD patients. We sought to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict 10-ye...

Background The two-dose BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine has demonstrated high efficacy against COVID-19 disease in clinical trials of children and young people (CYP). Consequently, we investigated the uptake, safety, effectiveness and waning of the protective effect of the BNT162b2 against symptomatic COVID-19 in CYP aged 12–17 years in Scotland...

Introduction SARS-CoV-2 infection rarely causes hospitalisation in children and young people (CYP), but mild or asymptomatic infections are common. Persistent symptoms following infection have been reported in CYP but subsequent healthcare use is unclear. We aim to describe healthcare use in CYP following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection and...

Data on the safety of COVID-19 vaccines in early pregnancy are limited. We conducted a national, population-based, matched cohort study assessing associations between COVID-19 vaccination and miscarriage prior to 20 weeks gestation and, separately, ectopic pregnancy. We identified women in Scotland vaccinated between 6 weeks preconception and 19 we...

Background: Current UK vaccination policy is to offer future COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at high risk of serious illness from COVID-19, but it is still uncertain which groups of the population could benefit most. In response to an urgent request from the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, we aimed to identify risk factor...

Evidence on associations between COVID-19 vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 infection and the risk of congenital anomalies is limited. We conducted a national, population-based, matched cohort study to estimate the association between COVID-19 vaccination and, separately, SARS-CoV-2 infection between six weeks pre-conception and 19 weeks and six days gesta...

Background Evidence suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1·1.529) is associated with lower risks of adverse outcomes than the delta (B.1.617.2) variant among the general population. However, little is known about outcomes after omicron infection in pregnancy. We aimed to assess and compare short-term pregnancy outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 delta and...

There is a need for better understanding of the risk of thrombocytopenic, haemorrhagic, thromboembolic disorders following first, second and booster vaccination doses and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Self-controlled cases series analysis of 2.1 million linked patient records in Wales between 7th December 2020 and 31st December 2021. Outcomes we...

Background: There is considerable policy, clinical and public interest about whether children should be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 and, if so, which children should be prioritised (particularly if vaccine resources are limited). To inform such deliberations, we sought to identify children and young people at highest risk of hospitalization from...

Purpose Develop a risk prediction model for epilepsy-related death. Methods In this age/sex-matched case-control study, we compared adults (aged ≥16 years) suffering epilepsy-related death between 2009-2016 to living adults with epilepsy in Scotland. Cases were captured from national mortality records, and controls from a research database or epil...

Background Herpes zoster (HZ) and associated complications cause significant burden to older people. A HZ vaccination programme was introduced in Aotearoa New Zealand in April 2018 with a single dose vaccine for those aged 65 years and a four-year catch up for 66–80 year-olds. This study aimed to assess the ‘real-world’ effectiveness of the zoster...

We investigated thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events following a second dose of ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 using a self-controlled case series analysis. We used a national prospective cohort with 2.0 million(m) adults vaccinated with two doses of ChAdOx or 1.6 m with BNT162b2. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) for idiopathic thrombocytope...

There are limited data regarding the safety of COVID-19 vaccines in early pregnancy. This may contribute to vaccine hesitancy in people who are pregnant, or who are planning pregnancy. We conducted a population-level matched cohort study assessing associations between COVID-19 vaccination and miscarriage (pregnancy loss prior to 20 weeks gestation)...

Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territor...

Background Little is known about vaccine effectiveness over time among adolescents, especially against the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) variant. This study assessed the associations between time since two-dose vaccination with BNT162b2 and the occurrence of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 among adolescents in Brazil and Scotl...

Objective To examine infants in Scotland aged 0-27 days with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection; the risk of neonatal infection by factors including maternal infection status and gestation at birth; and the need for hospital admission among infected neonates. Design Population-based cohort study. Setting and population All live births in Scotland, 1...