Colin Kelley

Colin Kelley
Appalachian State University | ASU · Department of Geography and Planning

PhD

About

17
Publications
10,129
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
1,297
Citations
Additional affiliations
January 2016 - May 2016
Center for Climate and Security
Position
  • Senior Researcher
December 2013 - December 2015
University of California, Santa Barbara
Position
  • PACE Postdoctoral Fellow
September 2008 - December 2012
Columbia University
Position
  • Graduate Teaching Assistant
Description
  • Courses included... Climate Dynamics (for MA students) twice Regional Climate (for MA students) Earth's Global Climate System (for undergraduates)
Education
September 2008 - December 2013
Columbia University
Field of study
  • Earth and Environmental Science (climate)

Publications

Publications (17)
Article
Full-text available
Abstract This research investigates the interannual variability of monsoon onset and withdrawal in Bangladesh, both of which are major climate features shaping multiple societal activities. There is considerable research on the monsoon timing in South Asia, but with much less focus on Bangladesh. We applied a local monsoon onset and withdrawal defi...
Article
Full-text available
The physical mechanisms whereby the mean and transient circulation anomalies associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drive winter mean precipitation anomalies across the North Atlantic Ocean, Europe, and the Mediterranean Sea region are investigated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis. A mois...
Article
Full-text available
Improvement of rainfall forecasts on seasonal to within-season timescales is crucial for many vulnerable regions and nations, including Bangladesh. For South Asia, seasonal predictability of rainfall can be quite challenging, and Bangladesh has limited predictive skill with respect to total seasonal rainfall due to its weak relationship with ENSO v...
Article
Full-text available
Plain Language Summary The seasonal climate outlook forum for the Sudano‐Sahelian region of West Africa convenes in middle/late April at the earliest, because the statistical models currently in use to make predictions for the July–September rainy season have little skill before then. Here we show that the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME),...
Article
Discover the world’s best science and medicine | Nature.com
Article
Full-text available
Journal of Population and Sustainability Vol 1 No 1 Debut issue. Papers by: STEVEN W. SINDING - Reflections on the Changing Nature of the Population Movement. AUBREY MANNING - Population and Sustainability: the Most Inconvenient Truth. SARAH CONLY - One Child: Do We Have a Right to More? COLIN KELLEY - On Sustainability, Vulnerability, Climate and...
Article
Full-text available
Southwest Asia, defined as the region containing the countries of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan, is water scarce and receives nearly 75% of its annual rainfall during the boreal cold season of November-April. The forcing of Southwest Asia precipitation has been previously examined for the entire boreal cold season from the perspective of cli...
Article
Full-text available
Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and un- sustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease...
Article
Full-text available
The hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean region, as well as its change over the coming decades, is investigated using the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) historical simulations and projections of the coming decades. The Mediterra...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
From 2005 to 2010, Syria experienced the most severe and persistent drought in the instrumental record, devastating the agriculture and causing widespread crop failure. A mass migration of farming families to urban peripheries followed the resulting food shortages, unemployment, and disruption of rural social structure. The addition of nearly 1.5 m...
Article
Full-text available
Winter and summer Mediterranean precipitation climatology and trends since 1950 as simulated by the newest generation of global climate models, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), are evaluated with respect to observations and the previous generation of models (CMIP3) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Four...
Article
Climate models robustly predict that the deep tropics and mid-latitude-to-subpolar regions will moisten, and the subtropical dry zones both dry and expand, as a consequence of global warming driven by rising greenhouse gases. The models also predict that this transition to a more extreme climatological mean global hydroclimate should already be und...
Article
Full-text available
The roles of anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability in causing the Mediterranean region’s late 20th Century extended winter drying trend are examined using 19 coupled models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. The observed drying was influenced by the robust positive trend in the North...
Article
Climate models display considerable agreement in their projection of future drying in subtropical regions, the Southwest US included, under common emission scenarios. The dynamical mechanisms leading to future droughts are a combination of thermodynamic effects related to the increase moisture carrying capacity of the atmosphere and a circulation c...

Network

Cited By

Projects

Project (1)
Project
http://www.wfp.org/climate-change/initiatives/foodsecure FoodSECuRE will: i) trigger action based on climate forecasts, to reinforce community resilience before shocks occur; ii) complement early response mechanisms, and iii) provide multi-year financing to deliver high-quality resilience-building activities are undertaken during post-disaster recovery operations.