Clara Vega

Clara Vega
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | Federal Reserve Board · Research and Statistics

About

59
Publications
8,529
Reads
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3,240
Citations
Introduction
Skills and Expertise
Additional affiliations
July 2005 - present
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Position
  • Senior Economist

Publications

Publications (59)
Article
While the literature has already widely documented the effects of macroeconomic news announcements on asset prices, as well as their asymmetric impact during good and bad times, we focus on the reaction to news based on the description of the state of the economy as painted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements. We develop a novel...
Article
While the literature has already widely documented the effects of macroeconomic news announcements on asset prices, as well as their asymmetric impact during good and bad times, we focus on the reaction to news based on the description of the state of the economy as painted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements. We develop a novel...
Article
We use clickstream data to show that investors’ demand for information about macroeconomic factors affecting the path of future interest rates is a measure of their uncertainty about this path. In particular, an increase in information demand ahead of influential economic announcements affecting investors’ beliefs about future interest rates predic...
Article
We study the impact of permanent open market operations (POMOs) by the Federal Reserve on U.S. Treasury market liquidity. Using a parsimonious model of speculative trading, we conjecture that i) this form of government intervention improves market liquidity, contrary to conclusions drawn by existing literature; and ii) the extent of this improvemen...
Article
The literature documents a heterogeneous asset price response to macroeconomic news announcements. We relate this heterogeneity to a novel measure of the intrinsic value of an announcement—the announcement’s ability to nowcast GDP growth, inflation, and the federal funds target rate—and find that differences across the intrinsic values of several U...
Article
Full-text available
We investigate how market participants price and manage counterparty risk in the post-crisis period using confidential trade repository data on single-name credit default swap (CDS) transactions. We find that counterparty risk has a modest impact on the pricing of CDS contracts, but a large impact on the choice of counterparties. We show that marke...
Article
The literature documents a heterogeneous asset price response to macroeconomic news announcements: Some announcements have a strong impact on asset prices and others do not. In order to explain these differences, we estimate a novel measure of the intrinsic value of a macroeconomic announcement, which we define as the announcement's ability to nowc...
Article
We study the impact of algorithmic trading in the foreign exchange market using a long time series of high-frequency data that specifically identifies computer-generated trading activity. Using both a reduced-form and a structural estimation, we find clear evidence that algorithmic trading causes an improvement in two measures of price efficiency i...
Article
Many commentators attribute recent episodes of rapid changes in asset prices to widespread investment in carry trades fueled by low interest rates. While carry trade strategies did not contribute to the recent financial crisis, the disparate monetary policies in place after the height of the crisis – with some central banks pursuing very accommodat...
Article
We study the impact of outright (i.e., permanent) Open Market Operations (POMOs) by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) on the microstructure of the secondary U.S. Treasury market. POMOs are trades in U.S. Treasury securities aimed at accomplishing the Federal Reserve???s target level of the federal funds rate. Our analysis is motivated by...
Article
This paper examines whether, and under what conditions, the linguistic tone (“soft information”) of management’s quarterly earnings press releases predicts firm’s valuation fundamentals and affects stock prices and stock price volatility. We use textual-analysis programs to extract two dimensions of managerial soft information - net optimism and ce...
Article
This paper analyzes intraday changes in firm-level equity prices around interest rate announcements to assess the transmission of U.S. monetary policy to the global economy. We document that foreign firms on average are roughly as sensitive to U.S. monetary policy as U.S. firms, although we also find considerable cross-sectional variation across fi...
Article
Full-text available
We study the impact of outright (i.e., permanent) Open Market Operations (POMOs) by the Federal Reserve on the microstructure of the secondary U.S. Treasury market. POMOs are trades in U.S. Treasury securities aimed at accomplishing the Federal Reserve's target level of the federal funds rate. Our analysis is motivated by a parsimonious model of sp...
Article
Full-text available
Previous literature documents a heterogeneous asset price response to macroeco-nomic announcements. Some announcements have a strong impact on asset prices and others do not. The most common explanation is that timing matters -announcements released earlier in the cycle affect asset prices more. We define in a novel way the relevance or information...
Article
Full-text available
We analyze the effects that real-time domestic and foreign news about fundamentals have on the co-movement between stock returns of a small, open economy, Portugal, and a large economy, the United States. Consistent with our theoretical model, we find that US macroeconomic news and Portuguese earnings news do not affect stock market co-movement, wh...
Article
We test the implications of a model of multi-asset speculative trading in which liquidity differentials between on-the-run and off-the-run U.S. Treasury bonds ensue from endowment shocks in the presence of two realistic market frictions--information heterogeneity and imperfect competition among informed traders--and a public signal. Our evidence su...
Article
We model and test for the role of heterogeneously informed, strategic multi-asset speculation for cross-price impact—the impact of trades in one asset on the prices of other (even unrelated) assets—in the U.S. stock market. Our investigation of the trading activity in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and National Association of Securities Dealers Aut...
Chapter
Glossary Definition of the Subject Market Structures Inventory Models Information-Based Models Easley and O’Hara’s Model Kyle Model Empirical Market Microstructure Future Directions Bibliography
Article
Full-text available
We analyze the effects that real-time domestic and foreign news about fundamentals have on the co-movement between stock returns of a small, open economy, Portugal, and a large economy, the United States. Consistent with our theoretical model, we find that US macroeconomic news and Portuguese earnings news do not affect cross-country stock market c...
Article
This paper examines whether the "soft" information contained in the text of management's quarterly earnings press releases is incrementally informative over the company's reported "hard" earnings news. We use Diction, a textual-analysis program, to extract various dimensions of managerial net optimism from more than 20,000 corporate earnings announ...
Article
This paper analyzes the impact of U.S. monetary policy announcement surprises on U.S. and foreign firm-level equity prices. We find that U.S. monetary policy has important influences on foreign equity prices on average, but with considerable variation across firms. We have found that this differing response reflects a range of factors, including th...
Article
This paper evaluates a pilot program run by a company called OPOWER, previously known as Positive Energy, to mail home energy reports to residential utility consumers. The reports compare a household’s energy use to that of its neighbors and provide energy conservation tips. Using data from randomized natural field experiment at 80,000 treatment an...
Article
This paper analyzes the impact of U.S. monetary policy announcement surprises on U.S. and foreign firm-level equity prices. We find that U.S. monetary policy has important influences on foreign equity prices on average, but with considerable variation across firms. We have found that this differing response reflects a range of factors, including th...
Article
Using a unique high-frequency futures dataset, we characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find that news produces conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. Equity markets, moreover, re...
Article
We analyze the effects that real-time domestic and foreign news about fundamentals have on the co-movement between stock returns of a small, open economy, Portugal, and a large economy, the United States. Consistent with our theoretical model, we find that US macroeconomic news and Portuguese earnings news do not affect stock market co-movement, wh...
Article
This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic news on the stock market microstructure measures of information asymmetry. The results show that, due to the daily changes in the information environment, daily information asymmetry has a global impact, though on annual basis, the information asymmetry measures have significantly positive relations wi...
Article
Full-text available
We analyze the effect that real-time domestic and foreign news about fundamentals have on the correlation of stock returns of a small open economy, Portugal, and a large open economy, the U.S. We also study the role of public and private information in the price formation process in the U.S. and Portuguese stock markets. First, and consistent with...
Article
Existing studies using low-frequency data have found that macroeconomic shocks contribute little to international stock market covariation. However, these papers have not accounted for the presence of asymmetric information where sophisticated investors generate private information about the fundamentals that drive returns in many countries. In thi...
Article
We study the role played by private and public information in the process of price formation in the U.S. Treasury bond market. To guide our analysis, we develop a parsimonious model of speculative trading in the presence of two realistic market frictions - information heterogeneity and imperfect competition among informed traders - and a public sig...
Article
We analyze the role private and public information play in the U.S. Treasury bond price discovery process. To guide our analysis, we develop a parsimonious model of speculative trading in the presence of two realistic market frictions, information heterogeneity and imperfect competition among informed traders. We test its equilibrium implications b...
Article
I use Easley and O’Hara's [1992, Journal of Finance 47, 577–604] private information-based trading variable, PIN, together with a comprehensive public news database to empirically measure the effect of private and public information on the post-announcement drift. I show that stocks associated with high PIN, consensus public news surprises, and low...
Article
Existing studies using low-frequency data have found that macroeconomic shocks contribute little to international stock market covariation. However, these papers have not accounted for the presence of asymmetric information where sophisticated investors generate private information about the fundamentals that drive returns in many countries. In thi...
Article
We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate d...
Article
Using a new data set consisting of six years of real-time exchange-rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations, we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates. In particular, we find that announcement surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency exchange-rate dynamics are l...
Article
Released at both weekly and monthly intervals, chain store indexes provide a timely measure of the sales performance of large retail companies. This article investigates whether the indexes can also play a role in tracking and forecasting consumer spending as a whole. The authors begin by exploring the extent to which developments in chain store sa...
Article
Financial economists are uncertain as to the cause of common movements in interna-tional stock markets. Previous studies have found that only a small fraction of the move-ments can be attributed to public news about macroeconomic variables. This has led some to suggest that investor irrationality is responsible. In this article, we assess whether i...
Article
Les économistes financiers sont incertains de la cause des variations communes des marchés boursiers internationaux. Selon des études antérieures, seule une faible proportion d'entre elles seraient attribuables à la publication de nouvelles informations concernant les variables macroéconomiques. Certains en ont conclu que l'irrationalité des invest...

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