Claire Durand

Université de Montréal | UdeM · Department of Sociology

We tend to act as if the polls published during electoral campaigns were all equivalent and reliable. This is even more so since the aggregators present average estimates of all the polls, rarely considering methodological differences between them. The 2020 presidential election in the U.S. has shown that polls are not equal, at least as modes of a...

Different indices of democracy – Freedom House, Polity4, V-Dem, The Economist, Global State of Democracy – have been elaborated by various organizations with the aim of measuring “democracy” or at least “a vision” of democracy. This paper presents an analysis of the relationship between specific indices used to measure the level of democracy in dif...

Scholars who want to perform cross-national comparative research rely on data provided by International survey projects, which study the same concepts in varying countries and periods using different question wordings and scales. In this article, we propose a process to combine and analyse the data pertaining to the same concept—institutional trust...

Comparative research examining relationships between individual-level survey response data and time-varying country context variables for political or socioeconomic characteristics is often complicated by missing values. Surveys and longitudinal context measures may be produced during alternative years and at differing frequencies. Observations may...

What are the essentials of democracy? Different indices of democracy – Freedom House, Polity4, V-Dem, The Economist, Global State of Democracy – have been elaborated by various organizations with the aim of measuring “democracy” or at least “a specific vision” of democracy. In this presentation, we ask what are the essential components of democracy...

The twenty-first century has seen an important transition in survey modes used for electoral polls. This transition has not ended yet. It is thus possible to examine differences between modes used in the same election. Different modes are more or less prone to social desirability and use different sampling frames and recruitment strategies that may...

Qu’est-ce que la démocratie? Comment la définit-on? Comment la mesure-t-on? Nombre d’organisations et de chercheurs ont essayé depuis Gastil en 1972 (Freedom House) jusqu’à The Economist plus récemment de mesurer la démocratie et d’ordonner les pays en fonction de cette mesure. Dans cette présentation, nous comparons cinq indices de démocratie – Fr...

In this paper, I go through the transitions that occurred in mode of administration of surveys in the last 50 years and since 2000. With a series of examples from the U.S., UK, Canada and Mexico, I show that modes of administration do not always portray the same trends in support for different parties, candidates or positions in elections and refer...

The presentation will focus on the different indices of democracy – Freedom House, Polity4, V-Dem, The Economist, Global State of Democracy, Democracy Barometer – that have been elaborated by different groups with the aim of measuring “democracy” or at least “a specific vision” of democracy. What do these indices specifically measure? How are these...

The growing importance of polls in news coverage raises questions about whether legislators should regulate polls in election campaigns. Although restrictions are on the rise, little is known about some basic but important facts regarding polls. Who reads polls? Are citizens who are aware of polls more likely to change their voting behaviour? And d...

This presentation aims at synthetizing the main challenges faced by researchers who analyze combined survey data sets. Four different issues and challenges will be addressed. First, there is a “missing value” issue both at the survey and at the individual levels. Not all surveys ask the same questions pertaining to specific topics. The current ans...

The polls of the 2018 Quebec election forecast a close race between the two leading parties. The result, a clear victory of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) over the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ), was clearly at odds with the polls. We argue that when the polls get it wrong, it is important to determine whether there was a polling miss , in which...

On October 1st 2018, the Quebec electoral campaign concluded with a majority government of a “new party” that had never been elected before, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), a right-wing party. The CAQ obtained 37.4% of the vote, more than 12 points above the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP) at 24.8%. The two other parties – Parti Québécois and Québec...

Since the 1990’s, most countries of Latin America went through a democratic transition, which was concurrent to improved material conditions of life, and the reinstatement of civil rights that had been abolished. However, according to some researchers, this process was met with difficulties due to the low level of trust in the social and political...

Comparative research using data from the International Survey programs has often focussed on Western Europe and North America where it is rather easy to find similar measures of the concepts of interest. However, research is restricted by the fact that comparison is performed only on similar measures and in a context where there is not much variati...

Ce texte présente une synthèse de la présentation que j’ai faite le mardi 26 février 2019 à une rencontre des Intellectuels pour la souveraineté (IPSO). La présentation a d’abord abordé l’historique de l’appui à la souveraineté du Québec entre 1976 et 2008. L’analyse de près de 700 sondages montre que l’appui à la souveraineté assortie d’un mandat...

Notre sondage postélectoral montre que les électeurs font leur choix plus souvent selon l'appréciation globale d'un parti que d'enjeux précis. Chaque campagne électorale donne lieu à des stratégies de la part des partis pour convaincre les électeurs de leur accorder leur vote. . Mais on a tout lieu de se demander : Les stratégies partisanes fonctio...

La présentation fait état des résultats d'un sondage post-électoral qui permet de comprendre ce qui s'est passé lors de l'élection québécoise d'octobre 2018 et pourquoi les sondages ont mal prédit le vote. L'analyse examine également les sondages locaux faits dans 69 circonscriptions et les estimations faites par Qc125 à la lumière des résultats du...

Can we still trust polls?

Cet article a été traduit en anglais.) ux élections du 1 octobre 2018, à la surprise générale, la Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) a remporté la victoire avec une avance de 12,6 points sur le Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ), alors que les sondages donnaient les deux partis pratiquement nez à nez dans les intentions de vote. Comme l'ont rappelé les analy...

Much effort has been invested by International Survey Programs to harmonize data a priori. However, different survey programs may take different decisions in this regard. And we may need to combine data coming from these different sources. This paper will show how to use multilevel modelling to analyze data collected on the same topic even when the...

This paper presents my comments to the House of Lords report on political polling, presented at the WAPOR Marrakech Conference in June 2018. I make a number of critics and suggestions, including on the media reports on polls. I propose the launching of the Society to Protect the Numbers (SPN).

In order to understand contextual effects better, we need to be able to compare countries on a number of relevant characteristics. In trying to do so, we face two problems. The first is the fact that many indices of the situation of the different countries are available only for countries of the “western world”. It is very difficult to find informa...

In order to understand contextual effects better, we need to be able to compare countries on a number of relevant characteristics. In trying to do so, we face two problems. The first is the fact that many indices of the situation of the different countries are available only for countries of the “western world”. It is very difficult to find informa...

La confiance est le ciment de la société. Elle indique jusqu'à quel point la population se fie au fait que, dans des circonstances prévisibles, l'interaction qu'elle aura avec une institution sera également prévisible. La recherche présentée visait le développement de nouvelles méthodes permettant de mieux visualiser, analyser et comprendre l'évolu...

The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Preelection polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency, there was a widespre...

In recent years, the polling industry has been struggling with an image problem, following some high-profile missed election calls in Canadian provincial elections, municipal elections, and abroad. A narrative has built up in the media that public opinion surveys are increasingly unreliable, and as a consequence Canadians are less trusting of polls...

Dans les dernières années, l’industrie des sondages est aux prises avec un problème d’image à la suite de certaines prévisions notoirement erronées de résultats d’élections provinciales et municipales au Canada et de résultats électoraux à l’étranger. L’idée que les sondages d’opinion publique sont de moins en moins fiables a gagné de plus en plus...

We tend to think that people identify with one ethnic group and do not change this identification over time. However, there are indications that this is not quite true. In the United States and in Brazil, for example, research shows that there is a tendency for people of mixed origins to identify as white when possible, particularly when their leve...

A number of international surveys – the Barometers, the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), the International Social Survey Program (ISSC), the World Values Survey (WVS) – include questions pertaining to trust in institutions. However, it is not obvious if and how we can combine these measures and if and how we can analyse them jointly....

a fiabilité des sondages a été remise en question régulièrement au cours des dernières années, que ce soit à l'occasion de récentes campagnes référendaires — Brexit, indépendance de l'Écosse — ou de la campagne présidentielle américaine de 2016. C'est dans ce contexte que des différences apparues au cours de l'automne 2016 dans les sondages faits p...

This article presents the current progress of a research project whose aim is to develop methods to analyze combined micro-data. The most recent papers that were presented (see references) give an insight into the work that has been accomplished to date. This project was triggered by a preceding project where we aimed at analyzing change in support...

Over the last 50 years, censuses have shown very substantial increases in the estimated sizes of Aboriginal populations in settler states such as Canada. Since these increases cannot be explained by demographic factors alone, authors have proposed that, as the situation of Aboriginal people has been under increasing public scrutiny, it has become m...

La confiance est le ciment de la société et de la démocratie. Elle permet de se fier au fait que, dans des circonstances prévisibles, l’interaction que l’on aura avec une institution sera également prévisible. La confiance dans les institutions devrait donc, en moyenne, se maintenir dans le temps de façon à assurer le fonctionnement de la société....

During the recent decades, a number of countries started a transition towards democracy. As this transition was taking place, it became easier to conduct surveys. Concurrently, “Barometer” surveys developed in Asia (Asia Barometer), in Arab countries (Arab Barometer), in Africa (Afro Barometer) and in Latino America (Latino Barometro) and East Euro...

During the last decade, Web and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) polls have spread in many countries and particularly in small markets where media outlets do not have the resources necessary to sponsor electoral polls conducted using “classical” modes. In addition, there is no incentive to put money in classical telephone polls if IVR or Web polls...

During the recent decades, a number of countries started a transition towards democracy. As this transition was taking place, it became easier to conduct surveys. Concurrently, “Barometer” surveys developed in Asia (Asia Barometer), in Arab countries (Arab Barometer), in Africa (Afro Barometer) and in Latino America (Latino Barometro) and East Euro...

Qui dit démocratie, dit sondages d'opinion. Les sondages apparaissent avec la démocratie et en sont indissociables 1 comme en font foi les transitions vers la démocratie qui ont eu lieu au cours des dernières décennies, que ce soit en Amérique Latine, en Europe de l'Est ou ailleurs dans le monde. Toutes ces transitions ont été suivies rapidement de...

In this case study of faculty at a large Canadian research university we examine the extent to which the gender pay gap varies with the formalization of remuneration practices and female representation within units. We estimate the respective contributions to the gender pay gap of base pay, access to the rank of full professor, access to and amount...

When Action Démocratique du Québec (ADQ) became the first opposition party after the Quebec election in March 2007, some observers attributed this unlikely outcome to the influence of certain “talk radio” stations. This research brief examines this hypothesis using panel data from a poll conducted before and after the election. Results show that th...

When Action Démocratique du Québec (ADQ) became the first opposition party after the Quebec election in March 2007, some observers attributed this unlikely outcome to the influence of certain “talk radio” stations. This research brief examines this hypothesis using panel data from a poll conducted before and after the election. Results show that th...

The idea of sovereignty has been part of Québec's political landscape for more than 45 years, giving rise to two referendums. Throughout this period, pollsters surveyed the population. Using close to 700 polls published since the first election of Parti Québécois in 1976, this article examines how support for sovereignty evolved outside the referen...

Les recherches sur les conditions socioeconomiques des Autochtones sont dominees par la mise en parallele de leur situation avec celle des Allochtones. L’autochtonite ou la residence dans une collectivite des Premieres Nations y sont implicitement mises de l’avant comme principaux facteurs explicatifs. La recherche presentee vise a circonscrire l’a...

After the ‘catastrophe’ of the 2002 French presidential election, when polls did not hint at the possibility that Jean-Marie LePen would qualify for the second round, one might ask whether pollsters learnt lessons from this experience. Using the polls published for the two rounds of the 2007 presidential election as well as complementary informatio...

This research note compares the properties of a new measure of interviewer performance—the Net Contribution to Performance Index (NCPI) (Durand, 2005a)—with the most commonly used measure for telephone surveys, cooperation rate at first contact (Cooprt1), to assess their reliability, validity, and usefulness in various contexts. The two measures ar...

Election Poli Methodology and the 2007 French Presidential Elections - Chronicle of a Recurring Problem: The 2002 presidential élection polls will be remembered for a long time because their error in predictions had dramatic consequences. What influence did those elections have on French opinion poli research and was it able to revise its methods?...

This study examines the gender pay gap among university faculty by analyzing gender differences in one component of faculty members’ salaries – “market premiums.” The data were collected during the Fall of 2002 using a survey of faculty at a single Canadian research university. Correspondence analysis and logistic regression analysis were performed...

Public opinion polls indicate that a majority of Canadians are in favour of euthanasia. However, there have been many criticisms of the validity of these findings. The objective of this study was to assess public opinion towards euthanasia while controlling for possible threats to validity indicated in the literature review. A telephone public opin...

This article presents an experiment in which a short cognitive training session was given at the private pollster conducting the 2004 Canadian Addiction Survey of 14,000 people. Overall, 79 interviewers worked on the project for a total of 2,436 interviewer-days, interviewers worked a maximum of 65 days, and the survey was in the field for 109 days...

In this research paper, the definition of interviewer performance is restricted to mean the capacity of an interviewer to convince a respondent to cooperate. Furthermore, it is restricted to performance in telephone surveys. To measure this aspect of performance, researchers have until now used the cooperation rate, calculated as the number of comp...

De Clercy et Ferguson déclarent que mon analyse du reportage des sondages lors de l'élection canadienne de l'an 2000 pose des problèmes. La méthodologie utilisée est une des sources de désaccord. J'ai analysé les rapports de première main des sondages à l'échelle nationale publiés par tous les journaux canadiens, en français et en anglais. Je souti...

De Clercy and Ferguson state that there are problems with my analysis of poll reporting during the 2000 Canadian election. One disagreement is with the methodology used. I analyzed first-hand reports of the national polls published in all Canadian newspapers in French and in English. I maintain that this is a better choice than theirs: a case study...

Just before the 2000 Canadian electoral campaign, a new law was passed regulating the publication of polls in the media during electoral campaigns. The law required newspapers to publish basic information about the way the polls they presented were conducted, and the wording of questions and the means by which a methodological report could be obtai...

Research to improve the quality of social surveys has shown that methodological factors have a significant impact on respondent cooperation. The research presented here is inspired by the sociology of work and studies the impact of interviewers' sense of motivation and “self-efficacy” in convincing respondents to answer surveys. To do so, a survey...

This article examines the possible unifying effect of climate change on leaders of green groups. The main goal is to identify ideological or North/South differences in attitudes on key aspects of climate change among them. Attitudinal data obtained with a standardized questionnaire administered to leaders from Quebec and Costa Rica are used to gene...

Alors que les sondages publics, lors de la campagne precedant l'election generale du 30 novembre 1998, au Quebec, predisaient une victoire facile du Parti Quebecois, parti de centre-gauche en faveur de la souverainete du Quebec, les resultats de l'election se sont averes inattendus, les sondages ayant systematiquement sous-estime les soutiens du Pa...

Bill C-83 proposes to regulate the publication of polls and their methodology during electoral campaigns. It would be necessary to determine the type of pertinent methodological information in order to judge the quality of the poll. This article presents results of a study on the relation between methodology used in polls published in Quebec during...

Pourquoi les estimations de vote ont-elle échoué au Québec en 1998? La réponse des enquêtes post-élections. Cet article présente les résultats d'un sondage post-électoral réalisé auprès de répondants à trois sondages pré-électoraux conduits pendant la campagne électorale de novembre 1998 au Québec (Canada). Durant la campagne, les sondages avaient...

Cet article vise a etablir une typologie des leaders de groupes verts du Quebec a partir de variables d'attitudes temoignant des rapports du mouvement vert et de ces leaders aux institutions. Trois types de leaders se degagent. Les « ecologistes », plus radicaux, sont mefiants a l'egard de la science et de la technologie et acceptent que des sacrif...

Bill C-83 proposes to regulate the publication of polls and their methodology during electoral campaigns. It would be necessary to determine the type of pertinent methodological information in order to judge the quality of the poll. This article present results of a study on the relation between methodology used in pools published in Quebec during...

Application of Item Response Theory to the Analysis of Attitude Scales. The article presents Item Response Theory (lRT) and illustrates its application to the analysis of two measures of work-related attitudes -- value given to social aspects of the job and satisfaction with extrinasic aspects of the job. Results of IRT analysis show that extrinsic...

Une enquete menee aupres des firmes de sondage du Canada et portant sur les pratiques methodologiques montre que plusieurs de celles-ci different selon les regions: mode de selection des repondants, nombre de tentatives pour les joindre, recuperation de refus, et pratiques visant a garantir un taux de reponse, entre autres. Les perceptions differen...

Election Poll Methodology and the 2007 French Presidential Elections – Chronicle of a Recurring Problem: The 2002 presidential election polls will be remembered for a long time because their error in predictions had dramatic consequences. What influence did those elections have on French opinion poll research and was it able to revise its methods?...