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Introduction
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October 2009 - May 2013
January 2013 - present
April 2010 - present
Publications
Publications (151)
Since its emergence in the 1990s, the science of attributing observed phenomena to human-induced and natural climate drivers has made remarkable progress. To ensure the relevance and uptake of climate impact attribution studies, scientists must effectively engage with stakeholders. This engagement allows stakeholders to pose key questions, which sc...
Aim
Terrestrial biodiversity is impacted by both climate and land use change. Yet, future biodiversity projections have rarely considered these two drivers in combination. In this study, we aim to assess the individual and combined impact of future climate and land use change on global terrestrial vertebrate diversity under a “sustainability” (SSP1...
Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest‐generation models have high effective climate sensitivities (EffCS). It has been argued these “hot” models are...
Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The...
Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here we used three well-tested fire–vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute...
Land use is a key human driver affecting Earth’s biogeochemical cycles, hydrology, and biodiversity. Therefore, projecting future land use is crucial for global change impact analyses. This study compares harmonized land-use and management trends, analyzing uncertainties through a three-factor variance analysis involving socioeconomic-climate scena...
Forests provide important ecosystem services (ESs), including climate change mitigation, local climate regulation, habitat for biodiversity, wood and non‐wood products, energy, and recreation. Simultaneously, forests are increasingly affected by climate change and need to be adapted to future environmental conditions. Current legislation, including...
The Arctic has warmed almost four times faster than the rest of the globe during the past four decades. This has led to multiple impacts in the Arctic such as the melting of glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice retreat, permafrost thaw, altered species distribution and abundance, changes in hydrology and snow conditions, and altered wildfi...
The majority of signatories to The United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021 (COP26) made a declaration to end deforestation by 2030. Here, we quantify future changes in land use and associated CO2 emissions to examine the impact of ending deforestation by 2030 on global land dynamics and emissions using an open-source land-use model. We sho...
Process-based forest models combine biological, physical, and chemical process
understanding to simulate forest dynamics as an emergent property of the system. As such, they are valuable tools to investigate the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. Specifically, they allow testing of hypotheses regarding long-term ecosystem dynamics and...
Drought risk threatens pastoralism in rangelands, which are already under strain from climatic and socioeconomic changes. We examine the future drought risk (2031–2060 and 2071–2100) to rangeland productivity across Eurasia (West, Central, and East Asia) using a well-tested process-based ecosystem model and projections of five climate models under...
"There are no scientifically justified obstacles to protecting biodiversity in all its beauty and diversity. There are only six years left to achieve the biodiversity targets by 2030. We must work together now to get there in time."
In the 10 Must Knows from Biodiversity Science 2024, 64 scientists have further developed their well-founded and div...
Disruptions in global food and energy trade can trigger cascading socio-economic losses. Financial markets can amplify such losses and generate systemic cross- sectoral effects, e.g. on food insecurity. Our novel methodology links the real economy and financial markets to quantify such cascading losses and to capture amplification effects by financ...
Tree regeneration is a key process in forest dynamics, particularly in the context of forest resilience and climate change. Models are pivotal for assessing long-term forest dynamics, and they have been in use for more than 50 years. However, there is a need to evaluate their capacity to accurately represent Handling Editor: Charles D. Canham tree...
Background
Forests mitigate climate change by reducing atmospheric CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\mathrm {CO_2}$$\end{document}-concentrations thro...
This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based...
Warmer and drier conditions increase forest mortality worldwide. At the same time, nitrogen deposition, longer growing seasons and higher atmospheric CO 2 concentrations may increase site productivity accelerating forest growth. However, tree physiological studies suggest that increased site productivity can also have adverse effects , reducing ada...
Wildfires affect human health by emitting hazardous air pollutants. The contribution of climate change to global fire-induced health impacts has not been quantified so far. Here, we used three fire-vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine...
Fires are now raging longer and more intensely in many regions worldwide. However, non-linear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management, and ignitions so far impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here we show that climate change is increasingly explaining regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of gl...
Current changes in the world's climate increasingly impact a wide variety of sectors globally, from agriculture and ecosystems to water and energy supply or human health. Many impacts of climate on these sectors happen at high spatio-temporal resolutions that are not covered by current global climate datasets. Here we present CHELSA-W5E5 (10.48364/...
This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, 70 www.isimip.org) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the...
Current changes in the world’s climate increasingly impact a wide variety of sectors globally, from agricul-ture, ecosystems, to water and energy supply or human health. Many impacts of climate on these sectors hap-pen at high spatio-temporal resolutions that are not covered by current global climate datasets. Here we pre-sent Climatologies at high...
Forests mitigate climate change by storing carbon and reducing emissions via substitution effects of wood products. Additionally, they provide many other important ecosystem services (ESs), but are vulnerable to climate change; therefore, adaptation is necessary. Climate-smart forestry combines mitigation with adaptation, whilst facilitating the pr...
Using engineered wood for construction has been discussed for climate change mitigation. It remains unclear where and in which way the additional demand for wooden construction material shall be fulfilled. Here we assess the global and regional impacts of increased demand for engineered wood on land use and associated CO 2 emissions until 2100 usin...
Inter-annual climate variability (hereafter climate variability) is increasing in many forested regions due to climate change. This variability could have larger near-term impacts on forests than decadal shifts in mean climate, but how forests will respond remains poorly resolved, particularly at broad scales. Individual trees, and even forest comm...
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) provides a framework for the collation of a set of consistent, multi-sector, multi-scale climate-impact simulations, based on scientifically and politically relevant historical and future scenarios. This framework serves as a basis for robust projections of climate impacts, as well as...
Forest models are instrumental for understanding and projecting the impact of climate change on forests. A considerable number of forest models have been developed in the last decades. However, few systematic and comprehensive model comparisons have been performed in Europe that combine an evaluation of modelled carbon and water fluxes and forest s...
Uns Autorinnen und Autoren geht es darum Wissen zu vermitteln. Wissen um Wandel, um politisches und gesellschaftliches Handeln für
einen gesunden Planeten, den Erhalt und die nachhaltige Nutzung der Biodiversität zu unterstützen. Wissenschaft und Forschung zur Begleitung eines komplexen und systemaren Prozess wird angeboten.
For us as contributors...
Forests play a key role in a bio-based economy by providing renewable materials, mitigating climate change, and accommodating biodiversity. However, forests experience massive increases in stresses in their ecological and socioeconomic environments, threatening forest ecosystem services supply. Alleviating those stresses is hampered by conflicting...
COVID-19 has revealed how challenging it is to manage global, systemic and compounding crises. Like COVID-19, climate change impacts, and maladaptive responses to them, have potential to disrupt societies at multiple scales via networks of trade, finance, mobility and communication, and to impact hardest on the most vulnerable. However, these compl...
As the impacts of climate change begin to take hold, increased attention is being paid to the consequences that might occur remotely from the location of the initial climatic impact, where impacts and responses are transmitted across one or more borders. As an economy that is highly connected to other regions and countries of the world, the Europea...
The Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2020-2040 provides information for the UNECE region that supports decision making by showing the possible medium- and long-term consequences of specific policy choices and structural changes, using scenario analyses whenever possible. The study is the first to cover the entire region and provides results for the mai...
Out of 1150 Mha (million hectares) of forest designated primarily for production purposes in 2020, plantations accounted for 11 % (131 Mha) of this area and fulfilled more than 33 % of the global industrial roundwood demand. However, adding additional timber plantations to meet increasing timber demand intensifies competition for scarce land resour...
The terrestrial carbon sink provides a critical negative feedback to climate warming, yet large uncertainty exists on its long‐term dynamics. Here we combined terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and climate projections, together with climate‐specific land use change, to investigate both the trend and interannual variability (IAV) of the terrestrial...
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
Significance
Under climate change, a point on a map needs to move in some speed and direction to maintain its current climate niche. We calculated the speeds and directions of aridity shifts across the globe to approximate species migration in natural–human systems driven by changes in water availability. We found historically that the aridity shif...
Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. We propos...
Out of 1150 Mha of forests designated primarily for production purposes in 2020, plantations account for 11 % (131 Mha) of area and fulfilled more than 33 % of the global industrial roundwood demand. Yet, adding additional timber plantations to meet increasing timber demand increases competition for scarce land resources between different land-uses...
1. Understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure, and diversity remains challenging, although data on forest systems are being collected at a rapid pace and across scales. Forest models have a long history in bridging data with ecological knowledge and can simulate forest dynamics over spatio-temporal scales unreachable by mo...
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation...
This chapter shows a synthesis of the past, present and future of climate change in the Russian Federation on a physical and geographical basis. Chapter 4 is dedicated to the analysis of the impacts of changes in the physical climate on the forest sector.
Joint CASCADES–RECEIPT policy brief
The extent and impact of climate-related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events...
The process-based model 4C (FORESEE) has been developed over the past 20 years to study climate impacts on forests and is now freely available as an open-source tool. The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive description of this 4C version (v2.2) for scientific users of the model and to present an evaluation of 4C at four different...
Beliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adaptation. We tested hypotheses based on this assumption using survey responses from 508 European forest professionals in 10 countries. We used the survey results to identify communication needs and the decision strategies at play, and to develop guidelines...
Soil organic carbon changes (ΔSOC) are regulated by climate and land use change. Here, we analyze regional and global ΔSOC from 1861 to 2099 based on five terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2b. The TBMs were driven by harmonized gridded land use change and bias‐adjusted cli...
Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data on European forests...
Carbon fluxes at the land‐atmosphere interface are strongly influenced by weather and climate conditions. Yet what is usually known as “climate extremes” does not always translate into very high or low carbon fluxes or so‐called “carbon extremes.” To reveal the patterns of how climate extremes influence terrestrial carbon fluxes, we analyzed the in...
Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal...
The role of values in climate-related decision-making is a prominent theme of climate communication research. The present study examines whether forest professionals are more driven by values than scientists are, and if this results in value polarization. A questionnaire was designed to elicit and assess the values assigned to expected effects of c...
The anticipated growth and urbanization of the global population over the next several decades will create a vast demand for the construction of new housing, commercial buildings and accompanying infrastructure. The production of cement, steel and other building materials associated with this wave of construction will become a major source of green...
As the EU revisits and updates its climate adaptation strategy and deals with fast-changing external relations, it is essential that policy-makers consider the risks of cross-border and cascading impacts and the Union’s range of influence for mitigating and preparing for them. In this short policy brief, the newly launched CASCADES project sets out...