Christopher J. Lynch

Christopher J. Lynch
Old Dominion University | ODU · Virginia Modeling, Analysis & Simulation Center

PhD in Modeling and Simulation

About

61
Publications
22,188
Reads
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520
Citations
Additional affiliations
January 2014 - May 2014
Old Dominion University
Position
  • Research Assistant
Description
  • Lecture and instruction on how to build DES systems using the Arena simulation software.
June 2013 - present
Old Dominion University
Position
  • Researcher
Education
August 2012 - August 2019
Old Dominion University
Field of study
  • Modeling and Simulation
May 2011 - August 2012
Old Dominion University
Field of study
  • Modeling and Simulation

Publications

Publications (61)
Preprint
Full-text available
BACKGROUND Adding additional bicycle and pedestrian paths (BPPs) to an area should lead to improved health outcomes of residents over time. However, quantitatively determining which areas stand to benefit more from BPPs, how many miles of BPPs are needed, and the health outcomes that may be most improved remain open questions. OBJECTIVE Our work p...
Article
Advances in computing allow for the construction of increasingly large and complex models and simulations. Exhaustive error checking of these intricate, large computational simulation models is daunting and potentially impractical. This paper explores an approach to error-checking simulation model components using an Acceptance Sampling methodology...
Article
Full-text available
Computational models and simulations often involve representations of decision-making processes. Numerous methods exist for representing decision-making at varied resolution levels based on the objectives of the simulation and the desired level of fidelity for validation. Decision making relies on the type of decision and the criteria that is appro...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Forecasting methods rely on trends and averages of prior observations to forecast COVID-19 case counts. COVID-19 forecasts have received much media attention, and numerous platforms have been created to inform the public. However, forecasting effectiveness varies by geographic scope and is affected by changing assumptions in behaviors a...
Data
Visual Abstract for "Short-Range Forecasting of COVID-19 During Early Onset at County, Health District, and State Geographic Levels Using Seven Methods: Comparative Forecasting Study" accessible from https://www.jmir.org/2021/3/e24925/
Article
Full-text available
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread rapidly across the world since its appearance in December 2019. This data set creates one-, three-, and seven-day forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic's cumulative case counts at the county, health district, and state geographic levels for the state of Virginia. Forecasts are created over the first 46 da...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Modeling approaches have utilized variations on susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR), susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered (SEIR), and machine learning models to estimate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) based on the identified virus characteristics. Forecasting methods rely on real-time numbers of confi...
Article
Full-text available
Verification is a crucial process to facilitate the identification and removal of errors within simulations. This study explores semantic changes to the concept of simulation verification over the past six decades using a data-supported, automated content analysis approach. We collect and utilize a corpus of 4,047 peer-reviewed Modeling and Simulat...
Thesis
Runtime verification facilitates error identification during individual simulation runs to increase confidence, credibility, and trust. Existing approaches effectively convey history, state information, and flow-of-control information. These approaches are common in practice due to shallow learning curves, lower mathematical requirements, and inter...
Chapter
Full-text available
Verification and validation (V&V) techniques commonly require modelers to collect and statistically analyze large amounts of data which require specific methods for ordering, filtering, or converting data points. Modelers need simple, intuitive, and efficient techniques for gaining insight into unexpected behaviors to help in determining if these b...
Conference Paper
In this paper we propose a different approach for interacting and analyzing agent-based models. The approach relies on creating empathy and understanding between physical agents in the physical world (people) and artificial agents in the simulated world (simulated agents). We propose a simulated empathy framework (SEF) in which artificial agents co...
Article
Religious practices centered on controlled trance states, such as Siberian shamanism or North African zar, are ubiquitous, yet their characteristics vary. In particular, crosscultural research finds that female-dominated spirit possession cults are common in stratified societies, whereas male-dominated shamanism predominates in structurally flatter...
Article
Full-text available
Debates over the causes and consequences of the "Axial Age"- A nd its relevance for understanding and explaining "modernity"-continue to rage within and across a wide variety of academic disciplines, including anthropology, sociology, archaeology, history, social theory, and cognitive science. We present a computational model that synthesizes three...
Article
Full-text available
We propose a generative agent-based model of the emergence and escalation of xenophobic anxiety in which individuals from two different religious groups encounter various hazards within an artificial society. The architecture of the model is informed by several empirically validated theories about the role of religion in intergroup conflict. Our re...
Chapter
Full-text available
In this chapter, we demonstrate how the modeling and simulation systems development framework (MS-SDF) can be used to discuss the nature of emergence in a system of systems. We present the use case of a model of the ballistic missile defense system comprised of agent-based model and discrete event simulation components and show under what condition...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we propose a sentiment-based approach to investigate the temporal and spatiotemporal effects on tourists’ emotions when visiting a city’s tourist destinations. Our approach consists of four steps: data collection and preprocessing from social media; visitor origin identification; visit sentiment identification; and temporal and spati...
Data
Final tourist attraction list with number of visits. The final list of tourist attractions and corresponding visit numbers identified within our datasets. We eliminated visits made by undetermined origins that either have empty or unidentified location information. Eliminating these tweets provided a better differentiation between visitor types in...
Data
Visit dataset. This dataset contains anonymized visit information including visit time, visited attraction name and category, visitor anonymized ID, visitor category, and sentiment score. (CSV)
Data
Initial tourist attraction list for the city of Chicago. The list contains attraction’s name, category, rankings in online tourist platforms, boundary-based and distance-based keywords, opening and closing hours, scores from online platforms, and boundary points. We only consider one opening and one closing hour per attraction that covers the earli...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
We have recently witnessed the proliferation of large-scale behavioral data that can be used to empirically develop agent-based models (ABMs). Despite this opportunity, the literature has neglected to offer a structured agent-based modeling approach to produce agents or its parts directly from data. In this paper, we present initial steps towards a...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
When learning to create simulations, we rely on real systems to emphasize their importance on reality. However, for younger students, reliance on reality is not always engaging. Reality provides context, but students' interest quickly fades. Through the use of four case studies, we explore the idea of having students create stories in order to enga...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In this paper, we raise the questions: how could sound influence the usability of simulations? How could sound influence the learning of simulation creation? How could sound support processes like verification? We argue that sound can support learning by relying on music/sound cues’ emotional engagement on users and verification by providing insigh...
Article
This paper reports on a survey capturing modelers’ perspectives of Modeling and Simulation (M&S). The survey was completed by a total of 283 respondents from the M&S community with 167 fully completed surveys and 151 respondents identified as model builders. Participants include people from government, academia, and industry in varied roles ranging...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Empirical findings from psychology and social science suggest that both individual and contextual factors play a role in shaping the levels of religiosity and violence in any given population. But what is the causal relationship between religion and violence? A wide variety of disciplines are contributing to a rapidly growing body of literature tha...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Verification and validation (V&V) techniques commonly require modelers to collect and statistically analyze large amounts of data which require specific methods for ordering, filtering, or converting data points. Modelers need simple, intuitive, and efficient techniques for gaining insight into unexpected behaviors to help in determining if these b...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter takes an empirical approach to examine to what extent federal research resources allocated to National Sciences Foundation (NSF) and National Institutes of Health (NIH) are used to fund projects that use modeling and simulation (M&S) as a method, technique, or tool. It performs content analysis on three sets of abstracts from funded NS...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Criminologists have long observed a strong correlation between age and crime. The age crime relationship has withstood stringent testing since the 1920’s and repeatedly demonstrated that criminal activity peaks at age seventeen and then gradually declines. These efforts have resulted in the formation of several theories; however, quantitative asses...
Article
Full-text available
The verification and validation (V&V) of agent-based models (ABMs) is challenging. The underlying structure of the model and the agents can change over time. Furthermore, the theoretical context of the model is often very different from established models of the same phenomenon. In an effort to overcome these issues, trace validation is becoming a...
Article
Full-text available
Metamodeling refers to modeling a model. There are two metamodeling approaches for ABMs: (1) top-down and (2) bottom-up. The top down approach enables users to decompose high-level mental models into behaviors and interactions of agents. In contrast, the bottom-up approach constructs a relatively small, simple model that approximates the structure...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Capturing and retaining the attention of students while learning complex topics like modeling and simulation is a critical task. In discrete-event simulation (DES), educators rely on examples like queueing systems in fast food restaurants or manufacturing organizations to provide the necessary context for learning. In many instances, these examples...
Conference Paper
We explore the impact of using different modeling paradigms on the outcome of simulation studies. Modeling paradigms, once implemented, follow different computational rules regarding how calculations are made and are sequenced during runtime. To test the effects of computational differences on a simulation’s outcomes, we implement a simple queuing...
Article
Full-text available
Commercial use of Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) has the potential to reshape the delivery market and to open new business opportunities to small businesses, e.g., local stores, pharmacies, restaurants, as well as to large international and national businesses and government entities, e.g., Amazon, Google, UPS, power companies, and USPS. Simulation m...
Article
Full-text available
The growth of the nascent UAS industry will be affected by the airspace coordination rules between drones because these rules can impact business profitability. Few analyses have been reported to support design of commercial UAS operations in low-altitude commercial urban airspace. Analysis of minimum horizontal separation is critical for designing...
Article
In this paper, we utilize a software engineering technique called statistical debugging to experimentally identify emergent behaviors in a System of Systems. We apply the technique to an agent-based model of the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) in which each component of the BMDS has operational and managerial independence as well as geograp...
Article
Full-text available
This article outlines the development – and reports on the experimental findings – of two computational models designed to simulate the dynamic systems and behavioural patterns identified and clarified by research on terror management theory. The causal architectures of these models are informed by empirical research on the effects of mortality sal...
Article
In this paper, we propose an approach to formally verify and rigorously validate a simulation system against the specification of the real system. We implement the approach in a verification and validation calculator tool that takes as input a set of statements that capture the requirements, internal conditions of the system and expected outputs of...
Article
This article examines the extent to which existing network centrality measures can be used (1) as filters to identify a set of papers to start reading within a journal and (2) as article-level metrics to identify the relative importance of a paper within a journal. We represent a dataset of published papers in the Public Library of Science (PLOS) v...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter identifies a roadmap to achieve a digital patient through interoperability by looking at what has been done in the military domain and explores how it can be applied to building a digital patient. The creation of a digital patient is possible through the development of six focus areas which include requirements, modeling and simulation...
Article
Full-text available
The process of developing and running simulations needs to become simple and accessible to audiences ranging from middle school students in a learning environment to subject matter experts in order to make the benefits of modeling and simulation commonly available. However, current simulations are for the most part developed and run on platforms th...
Article
In this paper, we examine to what extent Live, Virtual, Constructive (LVC) simulations can be used to model and simulate a System of Systems (SoS) by (1) establishing LVC and SoS domain profiles based on concepts discussed in each community and (2) finding overlapping concepts. To do so, we apply content analysis to the Simulation Interoperability...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Many terms exist within Modeling and Simulation that refer to models consisting of more than one modeling paradigm, more than one model, or more than one formalism. To provide some clarification this paper identifies nine terms from the Modeling and Simulation literature and compares them against a taxonomy of model characteristics including time r...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Despite their proven advantages in science and engineering and their broad application in daily activities such as travel planning and financial planning, simulations are not widely utilized in education, particularly at the K-12 levels. One of the main reasons is that simulation use and simulation building is reserved for expert's use and remains...
Article
Over the past six decades, Modeling and Simulation (M&S) has been used as a method or tool in many disciplines. While there is no doubt that the emergence of modern M&S is highly connected with that of Computing and Systems science, there is no clear evidence of the contribution of M&S to those disciplines. Further, while there is a growing body of...
Article
Interoperability in modeling and simulation is understood as the ability of simulations to exchange information and use the information exchanged. Several alternative models have been applied to support interoperability. The traditional approach has been to apply standards, such as the High-level Architecture, to create a federation and use a runti...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper proposes a multi-paradigm modeling framework (MPMF) for modeling and simulating problem situations (problems whose specification is not agreed upon). The MPMF allows for a different set of questions to be addressed from a problem situation than is possible through the use of a single modeling paradigm. The framework identifies different...
Conference Paper
The benefits of on-demand computing capabilities, broad network access, maintainability, and multiplatform support are some of the essential characteristics that have made cloud computing the technology to adopt in recent years. While the technology has been used in simulation to some extent, it has not been widely available as it is expensive and...
Conference Paper
U.S. population data indicate upsurges in obesity that can outpace the medical community's ability to provide care. Identifying that "outpaced" tipping point can mitigate shortages in healthcare capacity. A simulation model was developed to determine the burden of patient need vis-à-vis the medical community's ability in two U.S. cities to establis...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper seeks to explain the applicability and advantage of modeling and simulating the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) using the Agent-based modeling (ABM) paradigm. This is accomplished through the application of the Modeling and Simulation -- System Development Framework (MS-SDF) which provides a framework for capturing the BMDS and c...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper discusses obesity as a persistent and pervasive epidemic that could easily outpace the medical community’s ability to treat its broadening ill-effects. The current approaches to mitigating the epidemic are aimed at changing patient behavior, which is lengthy in duration and dependent upon numerous actors. This paper reframes the problem...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The purpose of this research was to improve the current treatment process for Pectus Carinatum (PC). PC is a chest deformity where the sternum and surrounding area are pushed outwards as a result of an excessive amount of rib cartilage. The current treatment process involves wearing a chest brace to slowly pull the shape of the chest back into a no...

Questions

Questions (4)
Question
You are invited to participate in a research survey exploring the ability to identify the existence of errors within running simulations! This research is being conducted by Christopher J. Lynch and Dr. Saikou Y. Diallo of the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center (VMASC) of Old Dominion University (ODU) as part of Mr. Lynch’s dissertation research. Findings from this study will inform simulation verification research and future CLOUDES updates.
What to expect:
  • Participate in a survey
  • Watch a series of 14 short videos of running simulations (20-35 seconds each) constructed in the CLOUDES platform (embedded in survey)
  • Identify occurrences that you believe indicate the presence of an error (embedded in survey)
Participation is entirely voluntary and requires approximately 15-30 minutes. This study is exclusively conducted online, responses are collected anonymously, and aggregated results will be reported.
If you are willing to participate please visit the ODU Qualtrics link at https://odu.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_a4SIABAUtV1jrnL
You must be over 18 years of age and agree to the ODU Institutional Review Board approved consent form. Participation is welcome until June 27, 2019.
Thank you! We look forward to your participation!
-Christopher J. Lynch and Dr. Saikou Y. Diallo
Question
I am periodically updating the Calls for Papers on the ACM Special Interest Group (SIG) on Simulation and Modeling (SIM) as part of the M&S Knowledge Repository at https://www.acm-sigsim-mskr.org/callsForPapers.htm.
The purpose of this page is to provide a list of:
  • conferences that deal with topics, methodologies, and applications in Modeling and Simulation; and
  • journal special issue calls that are specifically accepting any aspects of M&S topics
The Special Issue Calls link to their CFP pages and the due dates and journal names are provided.
The Conferences link to their corresponding pages and their paper due dates are provided along with the conference's location and dates.
What other special issue calls and conferences have I missed? (Only those that are currently open for submissions).
Question
When manually inspecting simulation runs during execution to try and identify errors during development, what methods have shown the best results in your experiences? Console logs, graphs, plots, message chains, or anything else?
Question
Ideally, I am looking for a taxonomy or classification of sound types and how they pertain to generating a response in users within a teaching/learning/gaming environment.
Thanks!

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Projects

Projects (3)
Project
Making simulations accessible to non-experts and experts through our web-based cloud-deployed tool CLOUDES. Located at www.cloudes.me
Project
http://mindandculture.org/projects/modeling-social-systems/modeling-religion-project/ The Modeling Relgion Project (MRP), a subproject under the umbrella of the Center for Mind and Culture's Simulation Religion Project, is an ambitious attempt to connect the sciences of modeling and simulation (M&S) with the scientific study of religion (SSR). With generous funding from the John Templeton Foundation, the three years from July 1, 2015 through June 30, 2018 promise an exciting intensification of a new kind of research in the academic study of religion. The first goal of MRP is to produce a simulation development platform that will allow SSR scholars and students to create complex simulations with no programming. The second goal is to produce a series of simulations of the role of religion in key transformations of human civilization, such as the Agricultural Transition (c. 8000 BCE), the Axial age (c. 800-200 BCE), and modernity (c. 1600-2100). The third goal is to explain the importance of M&S to the world of the academic study of religion. This will involve web blogs, outreach efforts, and even a documentary film.