Christoph Merkle

Aarhus University | AU · Department of Economics and Business

We replicate and extend two studies on the dynamics of overconfidence among financial professionals. Using 20 years of data from the ZEW Financial Market Survey with over 40,000 individual forecasts of confidence intervals, we document that participants are overprecise during the entire time period with no evidence of learning on the aggregate. We...

This paper examines whether biased income expectations due to overconfidence lead to higher levels of debt taking. We show suggestive evidence for a link between overconfidence and borrowing behavior in a representative survey of German households (German Socio‐Economic Panel–Innovation Sample [GSOEP‐IS]). This motivates a laboratory experiment to...

Does competition affect moral behavior? This fundamental question has been debated among leading scholars for centuries, and more recently, it has been tested in experimental studies yielding a body of rather inconclusive empirical evidence. A potential source of ambivalent empirical results on the same hypothesis is design heterogeneity-variation...

The tendency of humans to shy away from using algorithms—even when algorithms observably outperform their human counterpart—has been referred to as algorithm aversion. We conduct an experiment with young adults to test for algorithm aversion in financial decision making. Participants acting as investors can tie their incentives to either a human fu...

We conduct a controlled experiment with financial professionals to examine more directly whether value and momentum reflect risk factors or mispricing. By eliciting their risk perceptions and return expectations for company stocks, we identify what constitutes a risky investment from the point of investors. Contrary to the risk factor hypothesis, v...

How do risk attitudes change after experiencing gains or losses? For the case of losses, Imas (Am Econ Rev 106:2086–2109, 2016) shows that subsequent risk-taking behavior depends on whether these losses have been realized or not. After a realized loss, individuals’ risk-taking decreases, whereas it increases after an unrealized (paper) loss. He ref...

We test the proposition that investors’ ability to cope with financial losses is much better than they expect. In a panel survey of investors from a large bank in the UK, we ask for their subjective ratings of anticipated returns and experienced returns. The time period covered by the panel (2008–10) is one where investors experienced frequent loss...

In an experiment with professional analysts, we study their reliance on CEO personality information when producing financial forecasts. Drawing on social cognition research, we suggest analysts apply a stereotyping heuristic, believing that extraverted CEOs are more successful. The between‐subjects results with CEO extraversion as treatment variabl...

In a panel survey of brokerage clients in the United Kingdom, participants mostly perceive their own portfolio as no more volatile than the market portfolio. Taking into account observed portfolio betas, this implies a belief in very low idiosyncratic portfolio volatility, which is even negative for a considerable fraction of the studied investor p...

In a large online experiment, we relate the retirement timing decision to the disparity between the willingness-to-accept (WTA) and the willingness-to-pay (WTP). In the WTP treatment, participants indicate the maximum amount of monthly benefits they are willing to give up to retire early. In the WTA treatment, the minimum increase of monthly paymen...

Financial overconfidence leads to increased trading activity, higher risk taking, and less diversification. In a panel survey of online brokerage clients in the UK, we ask for stock market and portfolio expectations and derive several overconfidence measures from the responses. Overconfidence is identified in the sample in various forms. By matchin...

Return-chasing investors almost exclusively consider top-performing funds for their investment decisions. When drawing conclusions about the managerial skill of these top performers, they tend to neglect fund volatility and the cross-sectional information contained in the number of funds and the distribution of skill. In multiple surveys of sophist...

There is a large gap between what finance models predict for individual investor behavior and what can be observed in their actual behavior. Portfolio theory assumes that investors form expectations about return and risk of securities and select portfolios according to their expectations and risk preferences. As a consequence they should hold broad...

We study investor happiness in a panel survey of brokerage clients at a UK bank. When investors anticipate future happiness, they set their aspirations depending on own portfolio risk levels, used benchmarks, investment horizon, overconfidence, and other individual characteristics. They are very accurate in their forecasts, only rarely are investor...

In a panel survey of individual investors, we show that investors’ second-order beliefs—their beliefs about the return expectations of other investors—influence investment decisions. Investors who believe others hold more optimistic stock market expectations allocate more of their own portfolio to stocks even after controlling for their own risk an...

We test the proposition that investors' ability to cope with financial losses is much better than they expect. In a panel survey with real investors from a large UK bank, we ask for subjective ratings of anticipated returns and experienced returns. The time period covered by the panel (2008-2010), with frequent losses and gains in the portfolios of...

Overconfidence is among the most popular psychological explanations for investing behavior of private households. It has been linked to portfolio turnover, diversification, and risk taking, with mostly negative consequences for investors. In a panel survey of self-directed investors, who own an online brokerage account at a UK bank, we ask for stoc...

In a panel survey of private investors, we show that investors use their beliefs about the stock market expectations of others in their investment decisions. These second-order beliefs play a role beyond own risk and return expectations, but they are inaccurate and exhibit several well-known psychological biases. First-order and second-order belief...

This experimental study investigates the impact of affective attitudes on risk and return estimates of stocks. Participants rate well-known blue-chip firms on an affective scale and forecast risk and return of the firms' stock. We find that positive affective attitudes lead to a prediction of high return and low risk, while negative attitudes lead...

The better-than-average effect describes the tendency of people to perceive their skills and virtues as being above average. We derive a new experimental paradigm to distinguish between two possible explanations for the effect, namely rational information processing and overconfidence. Experiment participants evaluate their relative position within...

To understand how real investors use their beliefs and preferences in investing decisions, we examine a panel survey of self-directed online investors at a UK bank. The survey asks for return expectations, risk expectations, and risk tolerance of these investors in three-month intervals between 2008 and 2010. We combine the survey data with investo...

The financial crisis caused great uncertainty in global stock markets. In a panel survey of active private investors we collect return expectations and beliefs about the return expectations of others. The crisis is characterized by strongly heterogeneous expectations and inaccurate second-order beliefs. Investors believe their own opinion is relati...

The paper explores the influences of emotions on human decision making, especially in context of finance. It reviews the psychological, neuroscientific and neuroeconomic evidence about the topic and shows which applications these insights have found in behavioral finance and the new subject of neurofinance. Several descriptive and formal approaches...

This experimental paper investigates the impact of emotions on risk and return estimates of stocks. Participants rate well-known blue-chip firms on an emotional scale and forecast risk and return of the firms' stock. We find that positive emotions lead to a prediction of high return and low risk, while negative emotions lead to a prediction of low...