Chris Lennard

• PhD
• University of Cape Town

South Africa has experienced challenges to meet the energy demand of its citizens, let alone achieve a Just Energy Transition. This mainly due to grid capacity issues and slow rollout of new generation capacity. These are not unsolvable stumbling blocks and with better queuing rules for grid space and efforts to expedite grid and generation capacit...

It is increasingly evident that maintaining global warming at levels below those agreed in the legally binding international treaty on climate change. i.e., the Paris Agreement, is going to be extremely challenging using conventional mitigation techniques. While future scenarios of climate change frequently include extensive use of terrestrial and...

Scenarios represent a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation and adaptation actions). This paper describes the scenario framework for ScenarioMIP as part of CMIP7. The design process, initiated in June 2023, has involve...

Prediction of seasonal onset is crucial to agriculture in southern and eastern Africa. Here, we applied two definitions of onset, namely meteorological and agricultural (crop‐germination), to evaluate CMIP6 models through the lens of rainfall onset over representative maize agricultural regions of South Africa, Tanzania, Malawi and Zambia. We use t...

High-quality climate information tailored to cities’ needs assists decision makers to prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts, as well as to support the targeted transition towards climate resilient cities. During the last decades, two main modelling approaches emerged to understand and analyse the urban climate and to generate information....

Solar climate intervention refers to a group of methods for reducing climate risks associated with anthropogenic warming by reflecting sunlight. Marine cloud brightening (MCB), one such approach, proposes to inject sea‐salt aerosol into one or more regional marine boundary layer to increase marine cloud reflectivity. Here, we assess the potential i...

With surface temperatures already reaching unprecedented highs, resulting in significant adverse consequences for societies and ecosystems, there is an increasing call to expand research into climate interventions, including Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention (SAI). However, research and dissemination are currently fragmented and would benefit from...

In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the...

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has proposed multiple model experiments during phases 5 and 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), with the latest set of model experiments proposed in 2015. With phase 7 of CMIP in preparation and with multiple efforts ongoing to better explore the potential space of outcome...

As a percentage of the total global energy supply, wind energy facilities could provide 10% of the total global energy supply by 2050 as reported in IEA World Energy Outlook (2022). Considering this, a just transition to renewable and sustainable energy in South Africa is a genuine possibility if steps are taken immediately to achieve this. The Eas...

Cocoa is an important cash crop that contributes to the economy of Nigeria via job creation and foreign exchange earnings. However, escalating global warming trends threatens Cocoa cultivation and have resulted in a decline and heightened variability in Cocoa production in Nigeria, with potential for further exacerbation in the future. A potential...

The spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts, its changes and hot spots location across Africa are analysed for the period spanning 1928–2017 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) applied to the precipitation products from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of Delaware (UDEL) and Global Precipitation Climatology Ce...

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has proposed multiple model experiments during the phases 5 and 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), with the latest set of model experiment proposed in 2015. With phase 7 of CMIP in preparation, and with multiple efforts ongoing to better explore the potential space of out...

This study investigates the diurnal variability of surface solar radiation (SSR) over Reunion, and how it is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal climate variability. Using a diurnal classification based on SARAH-E satellite SSR data at 5km resolution, several key features of SSR variability are revealed. Spatially, SSR anomalies are larger in th...

In every IPCC Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group and Special Reports and their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a s...

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is the theoretical deployment of sulphate particles into the stratosphere to reflect incoming solar radiation and trigger a cooling impact at the Earth’s surface. This study assessed the potential impact of SAI geoengineering on temperature and precipitation extremes over South Africa (SAF) and its climatic zon...

The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific literature relevant to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societie...

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is a coordinating framework, started in 2010, that includes a series of standardized climate model experiments aimed at understanding the physical processes and projected impacts of solar geoengineering. Numerous experiments have been conducted, and numerous more have been proposed as “test-...

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is a coordinating framework, started in 2010, that includes a series of standardized climate model experiments aimed at understanding the physical processes and projected impacts of solar geoengineering. Numerous experiments have been conducted, and numerous more have been proposed as "testb...

South Africa is wrestling with increasing climate change impacts and how to respond. The 2022 IPCC Working Group II Report synthesises the latest evidence on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and what this means for climate-resilient development. In this commentary, South African authors on the Report reflect on its key findings...

This work investigated the impact of 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming Levels above the pre-industrial levels on annual and seasonal mean changes in temperature extreme over Côte d’Ivoire and its different climatic zones. We used the multi-model CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) for Africa of 25 regional climate model (RCM)...

Understanding the regional impact of future climate change is one of the major global challenges of this century. This study investigated possible effects of climate change on malaria in West Africa in the near future (2006–2035) and the far future (2036–2065) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), compa...

We present a dataset of daily, bias-adjusted temperature and precipitation projections for continental Africa based on a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations, which can be useful for climate change impact studies in several sectors. We provide guidance on the benefits and caveats of using the dataset by investigating the effect of b...

We provide an assessment of future daily characteristics of African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models, specifically highlighting the similarities and inconsistencies between them. Results for seasonal mean precipitation are not always consistent a...

Most socio-economic activities in Africa depend on the continent’s river basins, but effectively managing drought risks over the basins in response to climate change remains a big challenge. While studies have shown that the stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) intervention could mitigate temperature-related climate change impacts over Africa, the...

Nowadays, special attention is paid to hydroelectric production because it is an efficient, reliable, and renewable source of energy, especially in developing countries like Cameroon, where hydropower potential is the main source of electricity production. It also represents a useful tool to reduce the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations caus...

Climate change literacy encompasses being aware of both climate change and its anthropogenic cause, and thus underpins informed mitigation and adaptation responses. However, climate change literacy rates and their predictors remain poorly understood across the Global South. Here analysis of Africa’s largest representative public opinion survey show...

Plain Language Summary Southern Africa and the Atlas region show the largest agreement amongst different products for most of the precipitation characteristics, including annual time series and trends, spatial and temporal correlations, and indices of mean and extreme events. Over other regions, discrepancies amongst different products are larger,...

Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) plays a crucial role in water management, including irrigation systems design and management. It is an essential input to hydrological models. Direct measurement of PET is difficult, time-consuming and costly, therefore a number of different methods are used to compute this variable. This study compares the two se...

Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands and pastures exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought eve...

This study evaluates the possible impacts of climate change on Surface Solar Radiation (SSR), as a renewable energy resource, in Southern Africa (SA). Performance of climate models in reproducing the mean states and long-term trend of SSR are assessed by validating five Regional Climate Models (RCM) that participated in the Coordinated Regional Dow...

Anthropogenic forcing of the climate is estimated to have increased the likelihood of the 2015–2017 Western Cape drought, also called ‘Day Zero’ drought, by a factor of three, with a projected additional threefold increase of risk in a world with 2 °C warming. Here, we assess the potential for geoengineering using stratospheric aerosols injection (...

The results of a large ensemble of regional climate models lead to two contrasting but plausible scenarios for the precipitation change over West Africa, one where mean precipitation is projected to decrease significantly over the Gulf of Guinea in spring and the Sahel in summer, and the other where summer precipitation over both regions is project...

Variation in body size, especially mass, is a function of local environmental conditions for any given species. Recent recorded decreases in body size of endotherms have been attributed to climate change in some cases. This prediction is based on the trend of smaller body size of endotherms in warmer climates (Bergmann’s rule) and it implies geneti...

West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°, 2° and 3 °C relative to 1971–2000 on crop suitability over West Africa...

Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the 21 st century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators, play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the...

Supplementary Information for the paper "A tale of two futures: contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models"

Abstract We analyze the potential effect of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C above pre-industrial levels (1861−1890) on mean temperature and precipitation as well as intra-seasonal precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa. We used a large, 25-member regional climate model ensemble from the Coordinated Regional Downscal...

The original article has been published inadvertently with some errors in Fig. 1 legend and we have also missing a reference of that figure.

As established in earlier research (Quagraine et al. 2019), analysis of the combined roles (co-behavior) of multiple climate processes provides useful insights into the drivers of regional climate variability, especially for regions with no singular large-scale circulation control. Here, we extend the previous study in order to examine the performa...

Plain Language Summary We investigate the potential impact of artificially reducing the amount of sunlight that reaches the Earth's surface on the climate over sub‐Saharan Africa. Human induced warming is projected to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, whose impacts are already being felt in vulnerable regions in sub‐Saharan Af...

We employ a large ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the COordinated Regional-climate Downscaling EXperiment to explore two questions: (1) what can we know about the future precipitation characteristics over Africa? and (2) does this information differ from that derived from the driving Global Climate Models (GCMs)? By taking into acco...

Climate change has severely impacted southern African vegetation over the last decades. Recent studies have shown that limiting the global warming level to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial level may reduce the catastrophic effects of anthropogenic climate change. However, there is limited knowledge on the response of vegetation to climate chang...

The Benue River Basin (BRB) is a major tributary of the Niger River Basin (NRB) and the second-largest river in Cameroon. It serves many water resource functions including irrigation, hydroelectricity production and navigation. Previous research has indicated that recent climate change (CC) has had significant impacts on local and regional hydrolog...

The changing climate is posing significant threats to agriculture, the most vulnerable sector, and the main source of livelihood in West Africa. This study assesses the impact of the climate-departure on the crop suitability and planting month over West Africa. We used 10 CMIP5 Global climate models bias-corrected simulations downscaled by the CORD...

The future climate is projected to change rapidly with potentially severe consequences for global food security. This study aims to improve the understanding of future changes in the suitability of crop growth conditions. It proposes a definition of crop realization, of the climate departure from recent historical variability, or crop–climate depar...

In the second part of this study, possible impacts of climate change on Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) in Southern Africa (SA) are evaluated. We use outputs from 20 regional climate simulations from five Regional Climate Models (RCM) that participate in the Coordinated Regional Downscal-ing Experiment program over the African domain (CORDEX-Africa)...

The study evaluates the ability of ten regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate the present-day rainfall over Uganda within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the period 1990–2008. The models’ ability to reproduce the space-time variability of annual, seasonal, and interannual rainfall has been diagnosed. A series of met...

We compare ensemble mean daily precipitation and near‐surface temperatures from regional climate model simulations over seven Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment domains for the winter and summer seasons. We use Taylor diagrams to show the domain‐wide pattern similarity between the model ensemble and the observational data sets. We...

Understanding the processes responsible for precipitation and its future change is important to develop plausible and sustainable climate change adaptation strategies, especially in regions with few available observed data like Congo Basin (CB). This paper investigates the atmospheric circulation processes associated with climate model biases in CB...

The study develops an approach to assess co-behaviour of climate processes. The regional response of precipitation and temperature patterns over southern Africa to the combined roles (co-behaviour) of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is evaluated. Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs)...

This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM s...

The weather and climate of a particular region is a function of multi-scale controls in both space and time. South Africa exhibits a range of present day climate regimes that result from these controls, giving rise to generally hot, wet summers and cold, dry winters, except in the southwestern parts that are dry in summer and wet in winter. This ch...

Results from an 25 regional climate model simulations from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa initiative are used to assess the projected changes in temperature and precipitation over southern Africa at two Global Warming Levels (GWL), namely 1.5°C and 2.0°C, relative to pre-industrial values, under the Representative C...

There is a general lack of information about the potential effects of 1.5, 2 or more degrees of global warming on the regional climates within Africa, and most studies that address this use data from coarse resolution global models. Using a large ensemble of CORDEX Africa simulations, we present a pan-African overview of the effects of 1.5 and 2°C...

The Paris Agreement of COP21 set a goal of holding global average temperature increases to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. This is particularly relevant for the African context where temperatures are likely to warm faster than the global average and where the magnitude of chang...

We analyze the potential effect of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (1861−1890) on mean temperature and precipitation as well as intra-seasonal precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa. We used a large, 25-member regional climate model ensemble from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experi...

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region's adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CO...

We examine the impact of +1.5°C and +2°C global warming levels above pre-industrial levels on Consecutive dry days (CDD) and Consecutive wet days (CWD), two key indicators for extreme precipitation and seasonal drought. This is done using climate projections from a multi-model ensemble of 25 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCMs take b...

Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability, and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that local weather is conditioned by the large-sca...

Severe thunderstorms pose a considerable risk to society and the economy of South Africa during the austral summer months (October–March). Yet, the frequency and distribution of such severe storms is poorly understood, which partly stems out of an inadequate observation network. Given the lack of observations, alternative methods have focused on th...

The COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) is a diagnostic model intercomparison project (MIP) in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a...

A comprehensive analysis of near surface (10-m and 850 hPa) long-term (1980–2015) austral summer mean wind speed trends over southern Africa and the surrounding oceans (10°–40°S and 10°W-50°E) is carried out. The climate forecast system reanalysis and the climate forecast system reanalysis version 2, the modern era retrospective-analysis for resear...

The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is a Diagnostic MIP in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 G...

The study focuses on the analysis of extreme precipitation events of the present and future climate over southern Africa. Parametric and non-parametric approaches are used to identify and analyse these extreme events in data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models. The performance of the global climate model (GC...

Co-production is increasingly recognized as integral to appropriate use and uptake of climate information into decision-making. However, the success of co-production is contingent on an innate understanding of the context in which it is being implemented. Climate knowledge co-production in Africa is unique and requires a nuanced approach because of...

This study presents an evaluation of the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment - Africa (CORDEX-Africa) to reproduce the present-day spatial distribution of annual cycles of precipitation over the South African region and its borders. As found in previous studies, annua...

We analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of ten regional climate models (RCMs) along with the ensemble mean of their statistics in simulating daily precipi-tation characteristics during the West African monsoon (WAM) period (June–July–August–September). The experi-ments are conducted within the framework of the COordinated Regional Down...

This document reports on the methods used to create and the results of the two numerical wind atlases developed for the Wind Atlas for South Africa (WASA) project. The wind atlases were created using the KAMM-WAsP method and from the output of climate-type simulations of the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, respectively.