Chihiro Shimizu

Chihiro Shimizu
Hitotsubashi University · Center for the Promotion of Social Data Science Education and Research

PhD(The University of Tokyo)

About

100
Publications
12,689
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Introduction
Chihiro Shimizu, Ph.D., is Professor of the Hitotsubashi University, Member of Statistics Commission in Japan and research affiliate of Center of Real Estate at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in US. His areas of expertise are Index Theory, Real Estate Economics, Applied Econometrics and Machine Learning.He has contributed a number of theses to international academic journals as well as published numerous theses and books in Japan.
Additional affiliations
April 2019 - present
The University of Tokyo
Position
  • Professor (Full)
April 2016 - present
Nihon University
Position
  • Professor (Full)

Publications

Publications (100)
Article
Purpose This study aims to explore the spatial externalities of apartment vacancy rates on housing rent by considering multiple vacancy durations. Design/methodology/approach This research uses smart meter data to measure unobservable vacant houses. This study made a significant contribution by applying building-level smart meter data to housing m...
Article
Purpose Houses are durable, so an imbalance between demand and supply occurs after time has passed since initial construction. The purpose of this study is to quantify the extent of this imbalance for existing houses, focusing on the heterogeneity across property segments. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a unique data set on the “inqui...
Article
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Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) renew and recycle their property portfolios through divestment of inefficient assets and new acquisitions. Most previous literature focuses on the wealth effect of acquisition on REIT-level performance, while the property-level renewal process of REIT portfolios (especially divestments) remains unclear. Using a...
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In Japan where the population is aging and declining, it is necessary to evaluate and improve the walkability of cities. However, it may not be appropriate to use the indices developed for American cities in highly dense cities in Asia. This study aimed to verify the association of a newly developed walkability index, which quantifies the accessibi...
Article
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Rolling-time-dummy (RTD) is a hedonic method used by a number of countries to compute their official house price indexes (HPIs). The RTD method requires less data and is more adaptable than other hedonic methods, which makes it well suited for computing higher frequency HPIs (e.g., monthly or weekly). In this article, we address three key issues re...
Article
This study examines how the probability of becoming a professional football player depends on the birth month (relative age effect) and birth order. These two factors are random and cannot be controlled by the athlete. If these factors influence the probability of the occurrence of top athletes, they not only create inequality but also close the di...
Article
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More than 10 years have passed since studies on green buildings gained attention in the academic and industrial literature. Many studies report the economic value of green buildings, mainly in the U.S. and European markets. An empirical clarification of the dynamics of green premiums has significant implications for future urban sustainability. Thi...
Article
Employing a novel dataset on weekly “inquiry volume” indicator from the online real estate web portal, this paper investigates the intensity and direction of housing search during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Tokyo metropolitan area. We first show that housing search intensity temporarily increases following the emergency declara...
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This paper addresses the following question: can satisfactory residential property price indexes be constructed using hedonic regression techniques where location effects are modeled using local neighborhood dummy variables or is it necessary to use spatial coordinates to model location effects. Hill and Scholz (2018) addressed this question and fo...
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We propose a new explanation for the persistence of gravity in international investment flows based on new facts about large cross-border commercial real estate transactions. Buyers in these transactions preferentially match with counterparties from own or proximate countries; such affinity-based matching helps alleviate financial investment fricti...
Article
In housing markets, one bundle of characteristics is regarded as corresponding to a single price via a hedonic function. However, under the conditions of market mixture, the correspondence can be multi-valued and the existence of a single function is an illusion. The market segmentation approach decomposes a complex correspondence into simple funct...
Article
This paper documents housing rent rigidity under downward pressure, using the monthly household/room-level movement of housing rents through tenancies and vacancies in Tokyo during the period 2000Q1–2017Q2. The consistent overall rent rigidity exists because of the small extensive margin (limited adjustment opportunity) and small intensive margin (...
Article
We use recentered influence function regressions to decompose the differences in the distribution of sales prices across five stages of the business cycle in Tokyo for 1986–2016. Tokyo's housing market went through a period of rapid appreciation in prices during this time, followed by a long period of decline and a more recent increase. We find tha...
Article
This research explores factors and spatial distribution of condo rebuilding. The integration of the old and rebuilt condo data enables us to analyze the tendencies of the factors of condo rebuilding, employing a probit model. In consequence, building age, lot size, distance to the central Tokyo area, number of housing unit, and additional floor are...
Article
Data collecting is one of most important research techniques. For example, in constructing a housing price index, one has to make at least two important choices. The first is the choice among alternative estimation methods. The second is the choice among different data sources of house prices. The choice of the dataset has been regarded as critical...
Chapter
Housing price fluctuations exert effects on the economy through various channels. More precisely, however, relative prices between housing and other assets prices and goods/services prices are the variable that should be observed.
Chapter
How can a commercial property price index (CPPI) be defined and constructed? And what kind of relationship does the measurement of commercial property’s value have to the System of National Accounts and to concerns about national financial sectors? In order to answer such questions, this paper aims to outline the concepts that can be used to define...
Chapter
When a durable good (other than housing) is purchased by a consumer, national Consumer Price Indexes typically attribute all of that expenditure to the period of purchase, even though the use of the good extends beyond the period of purchase.
Chapter
When it comes to methods of quality adjustment for property price indexes, if one looks at the Residential Property Price Indices Handbook published by EuroStat in 2013, it present a variety of methods along with their advantages and disadvantages: (a) Stratification or Mix Adjustment Methods, (b) Hedonic Regression Methods, (c) Repeat Sales Method...
Chapter
This paper highlights some of the themes that emerged from the OECD-IMF Workshop on Real Estate Price Indexes which was held in Paris, November 6–7, 2006.
Chapter
Fluctuations in real estate prices have substantial impacts on economic activities. In Japan, a sharp rise in real estate prices during the latter half of the 1980s and its decline in the early 1990s led to a decade-long stagnation of the Japanese economy. More recently, a rapid rise in housing prices and its reversal in the United States triggered...
Chapter
Full-text available
Some real estate data for sales of detached houses in the Dutch town of “A” is used in order to construct house price indexes using a variety of methods. A main purpose of the paper is to determine whether the different methods generate different empirical results. The data cover 14 quarters of sales, beginning in 2005 and ending in the middle of 2...
Chapter
Throughout their histories most advanced nations have experienced abrupt increases and subsequent decreases in asset prices, especially housing prices. These fluctuations have had substantial impact on the financial system, often leading to a stagnation of economic activity. The most representative examples are Japan and Sweden in the 1990s and, mo...
Book
This book answers the question of how exactly property price indexes should be constructed. The formation and collapse of property bubbles has had a profound impact on the economic administration of many nations. The property price bubble that began around the mid-1980s in Japan has been called the 20th century's biggest bubble. In its aftermath, t...
Article
The System of National Accounts (SNA) requires separate estimates for the land and structure components of a commercial property. Using transactions data for the sales of office buildings in Tokyo, a hedonic regression model (the “builder’s model”) was estimated and this model generated an overall property price index as well as subindexes for the...
Article
Full-text available
Although metropolises continue to grow worldwide, they face the risk of shrinkage. This study seeks to capture and contextualize the “shrinkage” of the office market in Tokyo, a city that is one of the largest in the world but whose labor force has been shrinking since 1995. Employing unique property-level data on office building performance and us...
Article
Purpose While consumers did not previously have information on detailed housing features via traditional media, such as magazines, nowadays, due to the progress in information technology, they can access detailed information on various housing features via housing information websites. Therefore, detailed housing features may affect current rents...
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With the overall population on the brink of decline, Japan is faced with a full-scale depopulating society. Understanding the relationship between an aging society with a decreasing population and housing supply and demand is an important focus of urban studies research. In this study, we analyze residential relocation through the purchase of secon...
Article
Since 2012, Eurostat requires the national statistical institutes (NSIs) in all European Union (EU) countries to compute official House Price Indices (HPIs) at a quarterly frequency. Eurostat recommends computing the HPI using a hedonic method. Most NSIs have followed this advice, although they differ in their choice of method. Some NSIs use strati...
Article
Full-text available
Since real estate is heterogeneous and not all its quality attributes are observable, the repeat sales model pioneered by Bailey et al. (1963) has become one of the standard methods to estimate a constant-quality price index. The model, however, fails to adjust for depreciation, as age and time between sales have an exact linear relationship. This...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper we investigate the effect of aging population on property (land) prices. A theory of very-long-run portfolio choice is developed for a transition economy from young and growing to rapidly aging population and applied to estimate property price inflation in Japanese municipal markets. The results are stunning. The simulation results in...
Chapter
Full-text available
This study presents a review of the extant studies on Japanese green buildings and a new empirical analysis of the relation between office rent, green building labels, and actual energy use. We provide evidence as to what causes the positive association between green building labels and office rents. We first show that sustainability-related featur...
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to decompose and measure the microstructure of property investment returns for Tokyo’s residential property markets in as much detail as possible in comparison with office market. Design/methodology/approach Using enterprise value data for property investment trust companies composed of share prices available...
Article
What effect might the development of big data and AI have on the work of real estate professionals ? This paper focuses on the degree to which AI and machine learning may be able to correctly determine real estate prices - a task which occupies a central position in the work of real estate appraisers and brokers. Real estate price determination req...
Article
It will soon be 20 years since the large-scale consolidation of municipalities known as the “Great Heisei mergers” began. This policy was undertaken in response to the issue of municipalities, especially smaller ones, no longer being viable due to Japanʼs declining population and aging society. To put it another way, the aim of the policy was to pu...
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Population density that indicates a critical point in population growth is able to estimate from the relationship between population density and population movement. In the case of adopting usual definition of population density, the critical point depends on how to divide the space into unit of measurement. We find proper definition of population...
Article
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The paper fits a hedonic regression model to the sales of condominium units in Tokyo over the period 2000?2015. The problem is complicated by the need to decompose the selling price of a unit into a component that can be attributed to the structure area of the unit and another component that can be attributed to the unit's share of land value. Ther...
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Full-text available
The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the balance sheets and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property a...
Article
Purpose – Aging in Japan is advancing faster than in other major developed nations, and this is expected to have substantial effects on the country’s economic systems, including its social security system. What kind of effect will the falling birth rate, aging society and declining population have on the real estate market? Will the often mentioned...
Article
Using a unique transaction database of condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area and a hedonic analytical framework, we find that eco-labelled buildings command a small but significant premium on both the asking and transaction prices. This finding is consistent with results from other countries but in contrast to these studies, the present analy...
Article
Full-text available
This study investigates the number of job opportunities collected from a Japanese job searching site ("fromA navi") and an international job searching site ("Indeed"). We confirm that a relationship between the number of job opportunities and socioeconomic quantities (the population, the numbers of firms and workers) in each 1-km grid square in Jap...
Article
We propose a semiparametric hedonic model of housing prices with nonlinearity in age and cohort effects. The model avoids the simultaneity problem among age, cohort and year effects, which is a common problem in linear hedonic models. Applying the model to housing prices in Tokyo between 1990 and 2008 revealed significant nonlinearities in both the...
Article
Full-text available
We propose a new method to estimate quality adjusted commercial property price indexes using real estate investment trust (REIT) data. Our method is based on the present value approach, but the way the denominator (i.e. the discount rate) and the numerator (i.e. cash flows from properties) are estimated differs from the traditional method. We run a...
Article
This paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts (SNA). Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country. Related service price indexes for the land and structure input comp...
Article
Full-text available
This paper uses hedonic regression techniques to decompose the price of a house into land and structure components using real estate sales data for Tokyo. To get sensible results, a nonlinear regression model using data that covered multiple time periods was used. Collinearity between the amounts of land and structure in each residential property l...
Chapter
The agglomeration effect of population, which explains why many people live near places where many other people also live, is one important interaction that influences human population. We examine the agglomeration effect by measuring the distribution of the logarithmic differences between populations living in two places separated by some distance...
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this article, starting from linear regression, was to estimate a switching regression model, nonparametric model and generalized additive model as a semi-parametric model, perform function estimation with multiple nonlinear estimation methods and conduct comparative analysis of their predictive accuracy. The theoretical imp...
Conference Paper
In this study, hedonic house price functions are formulated using the single-family house market in the 23 wards of Tokyo as the subject. In the formulation of hedonic models, the generation of omitted variable bias is thought to occur in cases when, in addition to locational factors (i.e., factors involved in decision making when buying a property...
Conference Paper
In this paper, I describe the widening disparity and class stratification among cities in Japan. Specific focus is placed on impoverished and shrinking districts such as Kamagasaki in Osaka and San’ya in Tokyo, where numerous poor day laborers and homeless people live and work. Niklas Luhmann pointed out that impoverished districts were spatially i...
Article
With the selection of Tokyo as the host of the 2020 Olympics, it has been noted that there are expectations for property market prices to suddenly rise signifi cantly. But do mega events like the Olympics really improve property market fundamentals? As Walras has long since pointed out, the price of assets such as property is determined by the net...
Article
This paper aims to extend the existing evidence on the investment value of green buildings to international markets, specifically the residential market in Japan. Using a unique transaction database of condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area and a hedonic analytical framework, we find that green buildings command a small but significant premium...
Article
Despite an increasing interest in issues surrounding environmental equity, much research evidence to date is based on studies adopting cross-sectional approaches which do not adequately capture the processes and mechanisms generating inequities. Longitudinal studies may better inform policy measures to remedy inequity between populations, but the f...
Article
The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country. Related service price indexes for the land and structure input components...
Article
Full-text available
As interest grows in environmentally friendly buildings, or "green buildings," the real estate industry is expected to play an increasingly active role in the realization of a low-carbon society. Various efforts toward such a society are currently being promoted vigorously within an international framework. To supply a socially desirable level of g...
Article
It is often pointed out that imperfect information plagues the real estate market in Japan. The advertisement for sale of houses and condominiums does not necessarily convey essential information, such as detailed information about the residential environment around the house/condominium, its history of maintenance and restorations, its structural...
Article
Full-text available
In constructing a housing price index, one has to make several non-trivial choices. One of them is the choice among alternative estimation methods, such as repeat-sales regression, hedonic regression, etc. There are numerous papers on this issue, both theoretical and empirical. Shimizu et al. (2010), for example, conduct a statistical comparison of...
Article
Full-text available
How can we detect real estate bubbles? In this paper, we propose making use of information on the cross-sectional dispersion of real estate prices. During bubble periods, prices tend to go up considerably for some properties, but less so for others, so that price inequality across properties increases. In other words, a key characteristic of real e...
Article
Full-text available
The purpose of this study is to analysis in a residential relocation of a purchasing own houses within the Tokyo metropolitan area using geographic information systems (GIS). An understanding of relationship between an aging society with decreasing population and urban structure has been a major focus of research in urban studies. Previous studies...
Article
The advent and collapse of real estate bubbles, or the sharp rises and falls in real estate prices, have posed major economic issues in many contries. Real estate prices soared sharply in Japan and Sweden in the 1990s and recently in many Western countries (until the mid─2000s), until plunging in the wake of the financial crisis in the United State...
Article
Full-text available
First draft: April 22, 2010 This version: August 20, 2010 We would like to thank Tomoyuki Nakajima, Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, Misako Takayasu, Hiroshi Yoshikawa, and the participants of the UNECE/ILO meeting on consumer price indexes in Geneva for helpful comments and suggestions. This research is a part of the project on “Understanding Inflation Dyna...
Article
First draft: January 30, 2011 This version: February 2, 2011 In constructing a housing price index, one has to make at least two important decisions. One is the choice among alternative estimation methods. The other one is the choice among different data sources of house prices. The choice of datasets has been regarded as critically important from...
Article
JEL Classification – C43; C81; R21; R31 The authors would like to thank Erwin Diewert, David Fenwick, Peter von der Lippe, and participants at the 11th Ottawa Group Meeting held in Switzerland for helpful comments. The authors also appreciate detailed comments from the anonymous referees. The contribution of Kiyohiko G. Nishimura had been completed...
Article
Full-text available
May 1, 2010 An economic indicator faces two requirements. It should be timely reported and should not significantly be altered afterward to avoid erroneous messages. At the same time they should reflect changing market conditions constantly and appropriately. These requirements are particularly challenging for housing price indices, since housing m...
Article
Full-text available
Do indexes of house prices behave differently depending on the estimation method? If so, to what extent? To address these questions, we use a unique dataset that we compiled from individual listings in a widely circulated real estate advertisementmagazine. The dataset contains more than 470,000 listings of housing prices between 1986 and 2008, incl...
Article
Full-text available
Purpose – When Japan's asset bubble burst, the office vacancy rate soared sharply. This study seeks to target the office market in Tokyo's 23 special wards during Japan's bubble burst period. It aims to define economic conditions for the redevelopment/conversion of offices into housing and estimate the redevelopment/conversion probability under the...
Article
Why was the Japanese consumer price index for rents so stable even during the period of the housing bubble in the 1980s? To address this question, we use a unique micro price dataset which we have compiled from individual listings (or transactions) in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine. This dataset contains more than 700,000 li...
Article
Full-text available
-In this study, hedonic house price functions are formulated using the single-family house market in the 23 wards of Tokyo as the subject. In the formulation of hedonic models, the generation of omitted variable bias is thought to occur in cases when, in addition to locational factors (i.e., factors involved in decision making when buying a propert...
Article
Full-text available
The Financial Instruments and Exchange Law (FIEL) enforces the real estate fund managers to disclose more detailed information about investment real estate. It is expected that this information disclosure improves the efficiency of the real estate market and develops the fair real estate market. Furthermore FIEL brings the common restriction on any...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we estimate hedonic price equations of Japanese commercial and residential land prices for a 25-year period and to investigate possible structural changes in these price equations. Our price equations are based on transaction prices, not appraised land values, of commercial land in Central Business Districts of Tokyo (Chiyoda Ward, C...
Article
Full-text available
Summary In this paper, we aim to analyze the relationships between the quality and price of secondhand condominiums in the 23 wards of Tokyo. We propose a secondhand condominium price estimation method. Specifically, with a linear model as the starting point, we estimate nonlinear relationships of secondhand condominium unit prices in terms of floo...
Article
Full-text available
Purpose – This paper seeks to investigate the nature and magnitude of the distortion in appraisal land price information according to change in the market, with a special focus on the Government's Published Land Prices. Design/methodology/approach – In Japan, there is an item of land price information, so-called Koji-Chika (PLPS: Published Land Pri...