Chelsea Nagy

University of Colorado Boulder | CUB · Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

The most destructive and deadly wildfires in US history were also fast. Using satellite data, we analyzed the daily growth rates of more than 60,000 fires from 2001 to 2020 across the contiguous US. Nearly half of the ecoregions experienced destructive fast fires that grew more than 1620 hectares in 1 day. These fires accounted for 78% of structure...

Changes in fire activity challenge policymakers, land managers and the general public. Burned area (BA) is declining globally, but 81% of BA occurs in just 22 countries, and growth rate may be more important for public safety. We used eight fire regime components from country-level datasets to characterize fire regimes for 241 countries from 2003-2...

Context An increase in the number and availability of datasets cataloging invasive plant distributions offers opportunities to expand our understanding, monitoring, and management of invasives across spatial scales. These datasets, created using on-the-ground observations and modeling techniques, are made both for and by researchers and managers....

Coniferous forests account for 78% of the western US forests and store a substantial amount of carbon. Wildfires significantly alter vegetation structure, and hence the forest carbon stock. This study evaluates post-fire vegetation recovery trajectories and rates across the western US using recently launched Global Ecosystem Dynamic Investigations...

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical chan...

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical chan...

Increasing fire impacts across North America are associated with climate and vegetation change, greater exposure through development expansion, and less-well studied but salient social vulnerabilities. We are at a critical moment in the contemporary human-fire relationship, with an urgent need to transition from emergency response to proactive meas...

It is a critical time to reflect on the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) science to date as well as envision what research can be done right now with NEON (and other) data and what training is needed to enable a diverse user community. NEON became fully operational in May 2019 and has pivoted from planning and construction to operatio...

Invasive grass species can alter fire regimes, converting native terrestrial ecosystems into non‐native, grass‐dominated landscapes, creating a self‐reinforcing cycle of increasing fire activity and flammable grass expansion. Analyses of this phenomenon tend to focus on the ecology and geography of the grass–fire cycle independent of human activiti...

Biological invasions are a leading cause of rapid ecological change and often present a significant financial burden. As a vibrant discipline, invasion biology has made important strides in identifying, mapping, and beginning to manage invasions, but questions remain surrounding the mechanisms by which invasive species spread and the impacts they b...

Losses from natural hazards are escalating dramatically, with more properties and critical infrastructure affected each year. Although the magnitude, intensity, and/or frequency of certain hazards has increased, development contributes to this unsustainable trend, as disasters emerge when natural disturbances meet vulnerable assets and populations....

Non‐native, invasive Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) is pervasive in sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin ecoregion of the western United States, competing with native plants and promoting more frequent fires. As a result, cheatgrass invasion likely alters carbon (C) storage in the region. Many studies have measured C pools in one or more common ve...

Fire-prone invasive grasses create novel ecosystem threats by increasing fine-fuel loads and continuity, which can alter fire regimes. While the existence of an invasive grass-fire cycle is well known, evidence of altered fire regimes is typically based on local-scale studies or expert knowledge. Here, we quantify the effects of 12 nonnative, invas...

Wildfires are becoming more frequent in parts of the globe, but predicting where and when wildfires occur remains difficult. To predict wildfire extremes across the contiguous United States, we integrate a 30‐yr wildfire record with meteorological and housing data in spatiotemporal Bayesian statistical models with spatially varying nonlinear effect...

Wildfires are becoming more frequent in parts of the globe, but predicting where and when extreme events occur remains difficult. To explain and predict wildfire extremes across the contiguous United States, we integrate a 30 year wildfire occurrence record with meteorological and housing data in spatiotemporal Bayesian models with spatially varyin...

Supporting Information S1

Climate and land use models predict tropical deforestation and conversion to cropland will produce a large flux of soil carbon (C) to the atmosphere from accelerated decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM). However, the C flux from the deep tropical soils on which most intensive crop agriculture is now expanding remains poorly constrained. To qu...

The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires...

Significance Fighting wildfires in the United States costs billions of dollars annually. Public dialog and ongoing research have focused on increasing wildfire risk because of climate warming, overlooking the direct role that people play in igniting wildfires and increasing fire activity. Our analysis of two decades of government agency wildfire re...

Secondary forests now make up more than half of all tropical forests, and constraints on their biomass accumulation will influence the strength of the terrestrial carbon

The impacts of large-scale conversion of cattle pastures to cropland on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stocks are poorly understood in the Amazon region. The objective of this research was to determine whether soybean cultivation on a previously deforested and pastured soil has changed C and N stocks and dynamics. We sampled a chronosequence of s...

Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fue...

Background/Question/Methods Conversion of forests and savannas to soybean agriculture and pasture has created a fragmented landscape in the southern Brazilian Amazon. By law, cleared lands must contain a forested riparian buffer strip, but the fate of these elongate forest fragments in a matrix of pasture and soybeans has not been documented. We...

Coastal areas are rapidly developing due to population growth and the appeal of coastlines. In order to gain insight into how land use/cover affects carbon (C) storage in a coastal context, we examined soil and vegetation C and soil nitrogen (N) across land uses near Apalachicola, FL. Forested wetlands had the greatest soil C and N storage, while n...

Streams interact with the landscape through flooding events, erosion, and deposition processes and provide valuable subsidies to riparian zones. Meanwhile, the cumulative effects of disturbances and land use practices within a watershed affect water resources downstream. Forests have long been acclaimed for their rain-bringing capacity and ability...

At the global scale, the population density of coastal areas is nearly three times that of inland areas, and consequently, land development represents a threat to coastal ecosystems. It is critical to understand how increasing urbanization affects coastal watersheds. To that end, the objective of this study was to examine the influence of urban dev...

It is widely recognized that forest and water resources are intricately linked. Globally, changes in forest cover to accommodate agriculture and urban development introduce additional challenges for water management. The U.S. Southeast typifies this global trend as predictions of land-use change and population growth suggest increased pressure on w...

Urbanization in the southeastern U.S. has progressed rapidly due to economic development and population growth. This is particularly the case in the Piedmont physiographic region of Georgia where an interdisciplinary group of researchers conducted a series of studies, collectively known as the West Georgia Project, to evaluate the causes and conseq...

Terrestrial ecosystems in the southeastern United States have experienced a complex set of multiple changes in climate, atmospheric composition, land use and natural disturbances. Little is known about how these multiple changes have affected terrestrial carbon dynamics in the southeastern United States. In this study, we have examined how carbon f...